Aitchison Geometry for Probability and Likelihood as a new approach to mathematical statistics

The Aitchison vector space structure for the simplex is generalized to a Hilbert space structure A2(P) for distributions and likelihoods on arbitrary spaces. Centralnotations of statistics, such as Information or Likelihood, can be identified in the algebraical structure of A2(P) and their corresponding notions in compositional data analysis, such as Aitchison distance or centered log ratio transform.In this way very elaborated aspects of mathematical statistics can be understoodeasily in the light of a simple vector space structure and of compositional data analysis. E.g. combination of statistical information such as Bayesian updating,combination of likelihood and robust M-estimation functions are simple additions/perturbations in A2(Pprior). Weighting observations corresponds to a weightedaddition of the corresponding evidence.Likelihood based statistics for general exponential families turns out to have aparticularly easy interpretation in terms of A2(P). Regular exponential families formfinite dimensional linear subspaces of A2(P) and they correspond to finite dimensionalsubspaces formed by their posterior in the dual information space A2(Pprior).The Aitchison norm can identified with mean Fisher information. The closing constant itself is identified with a generalization of the cummulant function and shown to be Kullback Leiblers directed information. Fisher information is the local geometry of the manifold induced by the A2(P) derivative of the Kullback Leibler information and the space A2(P) can therefore be seen as the tangential geometry of statistical inference at the distribution P.The discussion of A2(P) valued random variables, such as estimation functionsor likelihoods, give a further interpretation of Fisher information as the expected squared norm of evidence and a scale free understanding of unbiased reasoning

High-resolution 3D whole-heart coronary MRA: a study on the combination of data acquisition in multiple breath-holds and 1D residual respiratory motion compensation.

OBJECT: To study a scan protocol for coronary magnetic resonance angiography based on multiple breath-holds featuring 1D motion compensation and to compare the resulting image quality to a navigator-gated free-breathing acquisition. Image reconstruction was performed using L1 regularized iterative SENSE. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The effects of respiratory motion on the Cartesian sampling scheme were minimized by performing data acquisition in multiple breath-holds. During the scan, repetitive readouts through a k-space center were used to detect and correct the respiratory displacement of the heart by exploiting the self-navigation principle in image reconstruction. In vivo experiments were performed in nine healthy volunteers and the resulting image quality was compared to a navigator-gated reference in terms of vessel length and sharpness. RESULTS: Acquisition in breath-hold is an effective method to reduce the scan time by more than 30 % compared to the navigator-gated reference. Although an equivalent mean image quality with respect to the reference was achieved with the proposed method, the 1D motion compensation did not work equally well in all cases. CONCLUSION: In general, the image quality scaled with the robustness of the motion compensation. Nevertheless, the featured setup provides a positive basis for future extension with more advanced motion compensation methods.

A mathematical excursion: From the three-door problem to a Cantor-type perfect set

We start with a generalization of the well-known three-door problem:the n-door problem. The solution of this new problem leads us toa beautiful representation system for real numbers in (0,1] as alternated series, known in the literature as Pierce expansions. A closer look to Pierce expansions will take us to some metrical properties of sets defined through the Pierce expansions of its elements. Finally, these metrical properties will enable us to present 'strange' sets, similar to the classical Cantor set.

Resolució de problemes i mètode de raonament en l'educació matemàtica

Des del principi dels temps històrics, la Matemàtica s'ha generat en totes les civilitzacions sobre la base de la resolució de problemes pràctics.Tanmateix, a partir del període grec la Història ens mostra la necessitat de fer un pas més endavant: l'evolució històrica de la Matemàtica situa els mètodes de raonament com a eix central de la recerca en Matemàtica. A partir d'una ullada als objectius i mètodes de treball d'alguns autors cabdals en la Història dels conceptes matemàtics postulem l'aprenentatge de les formes de raonament matemàtic com l'objectiu central de l'educació matemàtica, i la resolució de problemes com el mitjà més eficient per a coronar aquest objectiu.English version.From the beginning of the historical times, mathematics has been generated in all the civilizations on the base of the resolution of practical problems. Nevertheless, from the greek period History shows us the necessity to take one more step: the historical evolution of mathematics locates the methods of reasoning as the central axis of the research in mathematics. Glancing over the objectives and methods of work used bysome fundamental authors in the History of the mathematical concepts we postulated the learning of the forms of mathematical reasoning like the central objective of the mathematical education, and the resolution of problems as the most efficient way to carry out this objective.

Abnormal cortical network activation in human amnesia: A high-resolution evoked potential study.

Little is known about how human amnesia affects the activation of cortical networks during memory processing. In this study, we recorded high-density evoked potentials in 12 healthy control subjects and 11 amnesic patients with various types of brain damage affecting the medial temporal lobes, diencephalic structures, or both. Subjects performed a continuous recognition task composed of meaningful designs. Using whole-scalp spatiotemporal mapping techniques, we found that, during the first 200 ms following picture presentation, map configuration of amnesics and controls were indistinguishable. Beyond this period, processing significantly differed. Between 200 and 350 ms, amnesic patients expressed different topographical maps than controls in response to new and repeated pictures. From 350 to 550 ms, healthy subjects showed modulation of the same maps in response to new and repeated items. In amnesics, by contrast, presentation of repeated items induced different maps, indicating distinct cortical processing of new and old information. The study indicates that cortical mechanisms underlying memory formation and re-activation in amnesia fundamentally differ from normal memory processing.

The daily market for funds in Europe: Mathematical appendix

This paper includes the derivations of the main expressions in the paper ``The Daily Market for Funds in Europe: Has Something Changed With the EMU?'' by G. Pérez Quirós and H. Rodríguez Mendizábal.

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995-1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

Integration of high-resolution geophysical data for the characterization of alluvial aquifers : new approaches and implications for hydrological predictions

Abstract Accurate characterization of the spatial distribution of hydrological properties in heterogeneous aquifers at a range of scales is a key prerequisite for reliable modeling of subsurface contaminant transport, and is essential for designing effective and cost-efficient groundwater management and remediation strategies. To this end, high-resolution geophysical methods have shown significant potential to bridge a critical gap in subsurface resolution and coverage between traditional hydrological measurement techniques such as borehole log/core analyses and tracer or pumping tests. An important and still largely unresolved issue, however, is how to best quantitatively integrate geophysical data into a characterization study in order to estimate the spatial distribution of one or more pertinent hydrological parameters, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first develop a strategy for the assimilation of several types of hydrogeophysical data having varying degrees of resolution, subsurface coverage, and sensitivity to the hydrologic parameter of interest. In this regard a novel simulated annealing (SA)-based conditional simulation approach was developed and then tested in its ability to generate realizations of porosity given crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and neutron porosity log data. This was done successfully for both synthetic and field data sets. A subsequent issue that needed to be addressed involved assessing the potential benefits and implications of the resulting porosity realizations in terms of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. This was investigated synthetically assuming first that the relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity was well-defined. Then, the relationship was itself investigated in the context of a calibration procedure using hypothetical tracer test data. Essentially, the relationship best predicting the observed tracer test measurements was determined given the geophysically derived porosity structure. Both of these investigations showed that the SA-based approach, in general, allows much more reliable hydrological predictions than other more elementary techniques considered. Further, the developed calibration procedure was seen to be very effective, even at the scale of tomographic resolution, for predictions of transport. This also held true at locations within the aquifer where only geophysical data were available. This is significant because the acquisition of hydrological tracer test measurements is clearly more complicated and expensive than the acquisition of geophysical measurements. Although the above methodologies were tested using porosity logs and GPR data, the findings are expected to remain valid for a large number of pertinent combinations of geophysical and borehole log data of comparable resolution and sensitivity to the hydrological target parameter. Moreover, the obtained results allow us to have confidence for future developments in integration methodologies for geophysical and hydrological data to improve the 3-D estimation of hydrological properties.

Development of a system for 3D high-resolution seismic reflection profiling on lakes

A high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) seismic reflection system for small-scale targets in lacustrine settings has been developed. Its main characteristics include navigation and shot-triggering software that fires the seismic source at regular distance intervals (max. error of 0.25 m) with real-time control on navigation using differential GPS (Global Positioning System). Receiver positions are accurately calculated (error < 0.20 m) with the aid of GPS antennas attached to the end of each of three 24-channel streamers. Two telescopic booms hold the streamers at a distance of 7.5 m from each other. With a receiver spacing of 2.5 m, the bin dimension is 1.25 m in inline and 3.75 m in crossline direction. To test the system, we conducted a 3D survey of about 1 km(2) in Lake Geneva, Switzerland, over a complex fault zone. A 5-m shot spacing resulted in a nominal fold of 6. A double-chamber bubble-cancelling 15/15 in(3) air gun (40-650 Hz) operated at 80 bars and 1 m depth gave a signal penetration of 300 m below water bottom and a best vertical resolution of 1.1 m. Processing followed a conventional scheme, but had to be adapted to the high sampling rates, and our unconventional navigation data needed conversion to industry standards. The high-quality data enabled us to construct maps of seismic horizons and fault surfaces in three dimensions. The system proves to be well adapted to investigate complex structures by providing non-aliased images of reflectors with dips up to 30 degrees.

Quantitative monitoring of tamoxifen in human plasma extended to 40 metabolites using liquid-chromatography high-resolution mass spectrometry: new investigation capabilities for clinical pharmacology.

Liquid-chromatography (LC) high-resolution (HR) mass spectrometry (MS) analysis can record HR full scans, a technique of detection that shows comparable selectivity and sensitivity to ion transitions (SRM) performed with triple-quadrupole (TQ)-MS but that allows de facto determination of "all" ions including drug metabolites. This could be of potential utility in in vivo drug metabolism and pharmacovigilance studies in order to have a more comprehensive insight in drug biotransformation profile differences in patients. This simultaneous quantitative and qualitative (Quan/Qual) approach has been tested with 20 patients chronically treated with tamoxifen (TAM). The absolute quantification of TAM and three metabolites in plasma was realized using HR- and TQ-MS and compared. The same LC-HR-MS analysis allowed the identification and relative quantification of 37 additional TAM metabolites. A number of new metabolites were detected in patients' plasma including metabolites identified as didemethyl-trihydroxy-TAM-glucoside and didemethyl-tetrahydroxy-TAM-glucoside conjugates corresponding to TAM with six and seven biotransformation steps, respectively. Multivariate analysis allowed relevant patterns of metabolites and ratios to be associated with TAM administration and CYP2D6 genotype. Two hydroxylated metabolites, α-OH-TAM and 4'-OH-TAM, were newly identified as putative CYP2D6 substrates. The relative quantification was precise (<20 %), and the semiquantitative estimation suggests that metabolite levels are non-negligible. Metabolites could play an important role in drug toxicity, but their impact on drug-related side effects has been partially neglected due to the tremendous effort needed with previous MS technologies. Using present HR-MS, this situation should evolve with the straightforward determination of drug metabolites, enlarging the possibilities in studying inter- and intra-patients drug metabolism variability and related effects.

Chemical labelling of oyster shells used for time-calibrated high-resolution Mg/Ca ratios: A tool for estimation of past seasonal temperature variations

The geochemical compositions of biogenic carbonates are increasingly used for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions. The skeletal delta O-18 temperature relationship is dependent on water salinity, so many recent studies have focused on the Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios because those ratios in water do not change significantly on short time scales. Thus, those elemental ratios are considered to be good palaeotemperature proxies in many biominerals, although their use remains ambiguous in bivalve shells. Here, we present the high-resolution Mg/Ca ratios of two modern species of juvenile and adult oyster shells, Crassostrea gigas and Ostrea edulis. These specimens were grown in controlled conditions for over one year in two different locations. In situ monthly Mn-marking of the shells has been used for day calibration. The daily Mg/Ca.ratios in the shell have been measured with an electron microprobe. The high frequency Mg/Ca variation of all specimens displays good synchronism with lunar cycles, suggesting that tides strongly influence the incorporation of Mg/Ca into the shells. Highly significant correlation coefficients (0.70<R<0.83, p<0.0001) between the Mg/Ca ratios and the seawater temperature are obtained only for juvenile C. gigas samples, while metabolic control of Mg/Ca incorporation and lower shell growth rates preclude the use of the Mg/Ca ratio in adult shells as a palaeothermometer. Data from three juvenile C. gigas shells from the two study sites are selected to establish a relationship: T = 3.77Mg/Ca + 1.88, where T is in degrees C and Mg/Ca in mmol/mol. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Small Baseline DIFSAR Approach for Investigating Deformations on Full Resolution SAR Interferograms

This paper presents a differential synthetic apertureradar (SAR) interferometry (DIFSAR) approach for investigatingdeformation phenomena on full-resolution DIFSAR interferograms.In particular, our algorithm extends the capabilityof the small-baseline subset (SBAS) technique that relies onsmall-baseline DIFSAR interferograms only and is mainly focusedon investigating large-scale deformations with spatial resolutionsof about 100 100 m. The proposed technique is implemented byusing two different sets of data generated at low (multilook data)and full (single-look data) spatial resolution, respectively. Theformer is used to identify and estimate, via the conventional SBAStechnique, large spatial scale deformation patterns, topographicerrors in the available digital elevation model, and possibleatmospheric phase artifacts; the latter allows us to detect, onthe full-resolution residual phase components, structures highlycoherent over time (buildings, rocks, lava, structures, etc.), as wellas their height and displacements. In particular, the estimation ofthe temporal evolution of these local deformations is easily implementedby applying the singular value decomposition technique.The proposed algorithm has been tested with data acquired by theEuropean Remote Sensing satellites relative to the Campania area(Italy) and validated by using geodetic measurements.