The North Atlantic jet stream under climate change and its relation to the NAO and EA patterns

This paper describes recent variations of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream and analyzes the mean response of the jet to anthropogenic forcing in climate models. Jet stream changes are analyzed both using a direct measure of the near-surface westerly wind maximum and using an EOF-based approach. This allows jet stream changes to be related to the widely used leading patterns of variability: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) pattern. Viewed in NAO–EA state space, isolines of jet latitude and speed resemble a distorted polar coordinate system, highlighting the dependence of the jet stream quantities on both spatial patterns. Some differences in the results of the two methods are discussed, but both approaches agree on the general characteristics of the climate models. While there is some agreement between models on a poleward shift of the jet stream in response to anthropogenic forcing, there is still considerable spread between different model projections, especially in winter. Furthermore, the model responses to forcing are often weaker than their biases when compared to a reanalysis. Diagnoses of jet stream changes can be sensitive to the methodologies used, and several aspects of this are also discussed.

The coupled model predictability of the Western North Pacific summer monsoon with different leading times

Leading time length is an important issue for modeling seasonal forecasts. In this study, a comparison of the interannual predictability of the Western North Pacific (WNP) summer monsoon between different leading months was performed by using one-, four-, and seven-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of four coupled models from Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) for the period of 1960-2005. It is found that the WNP summer anomalies, including lower-tropospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies, can be well predicted for all these leading months. The accuracy of the four-month lead prediction is only slightly weaker than that of the one-month lead prediction, although the skill decreases with the increase of leading months.

Homoleptic copper(II) and copper(I) complexes of 5,6-dihydro-5,6-epoxy-1,10-phenanthroline. Six-coordinate copper(I) in solution

Reaction of 5,6-dihydro-5,6-epoxy-1,10-phenanthroline (L) with Cu(ClO(4))(2)center dot 6H(2)O in methanol in 3:1 M ratio at room temperature yields light green [CuL(3)](ClO(4))(2)center dot H(2)O (1). The X-ray crystal structure of the hemi acetonitrile solvate [CuL(3)](ClO(4))(2)center dot 0.5CH(3)CN has been determined which shows Jahn-Teller distortion in the CuN(6) core present in the cation [CuL(3)](2+). Complex 1 gives an axial EPR spectrum in acetonitrile-toluene glass with g(parallel to) = 2.262 (A(parallel to) = 169 x 10 (4) cm (1)) and g(perpendicular to) = 2.069. The Cu(II/I) potential in 1 in CH(2)Cl(2) at a glassy carbon electrode is 0.32 V versus NHE. This potential does not change with the addition of extra L in the medium implicating generation of a six-coordinate copper(I) species [CuL(3)](+) in solution. B3LYP/LanL2DZ calculations show that the six Cu-N bond distances in [CuL(3)](+) are 2.33, 2.25, 2.32, 2.25, 2.28 and 2.25 angstrom while the ideal Cu(I)-N bond length in a symmetric Cu(I)N(6) moiety is estimated as 2.25 angstrom. Reaction of L with Cu(CH(3)CN)(4)ClO(4) in dehydrated methanol at room temperature even in 4:1 M proportion yields [CuL(2)]ClO(4) (2). Its (1)H NMR spectrum indicates that the metal in [CuL(2)](+) is tetrahedral. The Cu(II/I) potential in 2 is found to be 0.68 V versus NHE in CH(2)Cl(2) at a glassy carbon electrode. In presence of excess L, 2 yields the cyclic voltammogram of 1. From (1)H NMR titration, the free energy of binding of L to [CuL(2)](+) to produce [CuL(3)](+) in CD(2)Cl(2) at 298 K is estimated as -11.7 (+/-0.2) kJ mol (1).

Surviving without leading: Jacques Chirac

The presidency of Jacques Chirac in France (1995-2007) was scarred by two crushing defeats: the parliamentary elections of 25 May and 1 June 1997, and the referendum on the European Constitution of 29 May 2005. As both were highly personal setbacks, since both votes were taken at Chirac’s initiative they suggest that a dominant presidential position, twice won, was twice squandered owing to a failure of leadership. This chapter argues, firstly, that the weaknesses of the presidency arose chiefly from the three decades of Chirac’s career before the 1995 election – and, secondly, that Chirac’s record of presidential leadership, though limited, is more substantial than these two major failures suggest.

Next-to-leading order QCD corrections to the polarized hadroproduction of heavy flavors

We present the complete next-to-leading order QCD corrections to the polarized hadroproduction of heavy flavors which soon will be studied experimentally in polarized pp collisions at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) in order to constrain the polarized gluon density Δg. It is demonstrated that the dependence on unphysical renormalization and factorization scales is strongly reduced beyond the leading order. The sensitivity of the charm quark spin asymmetry to Δg is analyzed in some detail, including the limited detector acceptance for leptons from charm quark decays at the BNL RHIC.

Erratum to: “Photoproduction of heavy quarks in next-to-leading order QCD with longitudinally polarized initial states” [Nucl. Phys. B 540 (1999) 345]

There are three trivial misprints in our paper.

Photoproduction of heavy quarks in next-to-leading order QCD with longitudinally polarized initial states

We present all relevant details of our calculation of the complete next-to-leading order O(αS2α) QCD corrections to heavy flavor photoproduction with longitudinally polarized point-like photons and hadrons. In particular we provide analytical results for the virtual plus soft gluon cross section. We carefully address the relevance of remaining theoretical uncertainties by varying, for instance, the factorization and renormalization scales independently. Such studies are of importance for a meaningful first direct determination of the polarized gluon density Δg from the total charm production spin asymmetry by the upcoming COMPASS experiment. It is shown that the scale uncertainty is considerably reduced in next-to-leading order, but the dependence on the charm quark mass is sizable at fixed target energies. Finally, we study several differential single-inclusive heavy quark distributions and, for the polarized HERA option, the total bottom spin asymmetry.

Next-to-leading order QCD corrections to the polarized photoproduction of heavy flavors

We present a calculation of the next-to-leading order ... QCD corrections to heavy flavor photoproduction with longitudinally polarized beams. We apply our results to study the longitudinal spin asymmetry for the total charm quark production cross section which will be utilized by the forthcoming COMPASS experiment at CERN to obtain first direct information on the polarized gluon density Δg. We also briefly discuss the main theoretical uncertainties inherent in this calculation. In particular we demonstrate that the factorization scale dependence is considerably reduced in next-to-leading order.

Controlling spurious diapycnal mixing in eddy-resolving height-coordinate ocean models: insights from virtual deliberate tracer release experiments

A perceived limitation of z-coordinate models associated with spurious diapycnal mixing in eddying, frontal flow, can be readily addressed through appropriate attention to the tracer advection schemes employed. It is demonstrated that tracer advection schemes developed by Prather and collaborators for application in the stratosphere, greatly improve the fidelity of eddying flows, reducing levels of spurious diapycnal mixing to below those directly measured in field experiments, ∼1 × 10−5 m2 s−1. This approach yields a model in which geostrophic eddies are quasi-adiabatic in the ocean interior, so that the residual-mean overturning circulation aligns almost perfectly with density contours. A reentrant channel configuration of the MIT General Circulation Model, that approximates the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is used to examine these issues. Virtual analogs of ocean deliberate tracer release field experiments reinforce our conclusion, producing passive tracer solutions that parallel field experiments remarkably well.

Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models

We evaluate the predictive power of leading indicators for output growth at horizons up to 1 year. We use the MIDAS regression approach as this allows us to combine multiple individual leading indicators in a parsimonious way and to directly exploit the information content of the monthly series to predict quarterly output growth. When we use real-time vintage data, the indicators are found to have significant predictive ability, and this is further enhanced by the use of monthly data on the quarter at the time the forecast is made

Sea ice–ocean coupling using a rescaled vertical coordinate z*

Realistic representation of sea ice in ocean models involves the use of a non-linear free-surface, a real freshwater flux and observance of requisite conservation laws. We show here that these properties can be achieved in practice through use of a rescaled vertical coordinate ‘‘z*” in z-coordinate models that allows one to follow undulations in the free-surface under sea ice loading. In particular, the adoption of "z*" avoids the difficult issue of vanishing levels under thick ice. Details of the implementation within MITgcm are provided. A high resolution global ocean sea ice simulation illustrates the robustness of the z* formulation and reveals a source of oceanic variability associated with sea ice dynamics and ice-loading effects. The use of the z* coordinate allows one to achieve perfect conservation of fresh water, heat and salt, as shown in extended integration of coupled ocean sea ice atmospheric model.