BeachWin: modelling groundwater effects on swash sediment transport and beach profile changes

Field and laboratory observations have shown that a relatively low beach groundwater table enhances beach accretion. These observations have led to the beach dewatering technique (artificially lowering the beach water table) for combating beach erosion. Here we present a process-based numerical model that simulates the interacting wave motion on the beach. coastal groundwater flow, swash sediment transport and beach profile changes. Results of model simulations demonstrate that the model replicates accretionary effects of a low beach water table on beach profile changes and has the potential to become a tool for assessing the effectiveness of beach dewatering systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finite element modelling of reactive fluids mixing and mineralization in pore-fluid saturated hydrothermal/sedimentary basins

We present the finite element simulations of reactive mineral carrying fluids mixing and mineralization in pore-fluid saturated hydrothermal/sedimentary basins. In particular we explore the mixing of reactive sulfide and sulfate fluids and the relevant patterns of mineralization for Load, zinc and iron minerals in the regime of temperature-gradient-driven convective flow. Since the mineralization and ore body formation may last quite a long period of time in a hydrothermal basin, it is commonly assumed that, in the geochemistry, the solutions of minerals are in an equilibrium state or near an equilibrium state. Therefore, the mineralization rate of a particular kind of mineral can be expressed as the product of the pore-fluid velocity and the equilibrium concentration of this particular kind of mineral Using the present mineralization rate of a mineral, the potential of the modern mineralization theory is illustrated by means of finite element studies related to reactive mineral-carrying fluids mixing problems in materially homogeneous and inhomogeneous porous rock basins.

Spatial data mining for enhanced soil map modelling

The principle of using induction rules based on spatial environmental data to model a soil map has previously been demonstrated Whilst the general pattern of classes of large spatial extent and those with close association with geology were delineated small classes and the detailed spatial pattern of the map were less well rendered Here we examine several strategies to improve the quality of the soil map models generated by rule induction Terrain attributes that are better suited to landscape description at a resolution of 250 m are introduced as predictors of soil type A map sampling strategy is developed Classification error is reduced by using boosting rather than cross validation to improve the model Further the benefit of incorporating the local spatial context for each environmental variable into the rule induction is examined The best model was achieved by sampling in proportion to the spatial extent of the mapped classes boosting the decision trees and using spatial contextual information extracted from the environmental variables.

Epidemiological modelling (including economic modelling) and its role in preventive drug therapy

In contrast to curative therapies, preventive therapies are administered to largely healthy individuals over long periods. The risk-benefit and cost-benefit ratios are more likely to be unfavourable, making treatment decisions difficult. Drug trials provide insufficient information for treatment decisions, as they are conducted on highly selected populations over short durations, estimate only relative benefits of treatment and offer little information on risks and costs. Epidemiological modelling is a method of combining evidence from observational epidemiology and clinical trials to assist in clinical and health policy decision-making. It can estimate absolute benefits, risks and costs of long-term preventive strategies, and thus allow their precise targeting to individuals for whom they are safest and most cost-effective. Epidemiological modelling also allows explicit information about risks and benefits of therapy to be presented to patients, facilitating informed decision-making.

An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters' responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers' behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief-desire-intention agent architecture. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Event-related FMRI analysis with maximum correlation modelling

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) analysis methods can be quite generally divided into hypothesis-driven and data-driven approaches. The former are utilised in the majority of FMRI studies, where a specific haemodynamic response is modelled utilising knowledge of event timing during the scan, and is tested against the data using a t test or a correlation analysis. These approaches often lack the flexibility to account for variability in haemodynamic response across subjects and brain regions which is of specific interest in high-temporal resolution event-related studies. Current data-driven approaches attempt to identify components of interest in the data, but currently do not utilise any physiological information for the discrimination of these components. Here we present a hypothesis-driven approach that is an extension of Friman's maximum correlation modelling method (Neurolmage 16, 454-464, 2002) specifically focused on discriminating the temporal characteristics of event-related haemodynamic activity. Test analyses, on both simulated and real event-related FMRI data, will be presented.

Client satisfaction and empowerment through social work intervention

This Study examines the utility of satisfaction questionnaires in gauging the effectiveness of social work services in a paediatric hospital setting. Participants completed an empowerment scale before seeing a social worker. Approximately four weeks later, participants completed the empowerment scale again, at which time they also completed a satisfaction questionnaire. The difference between the pre- and post-test empowerment scores was compared with the satisfaction scores, and the influence of some demographic and intervention variables was examined. The results indicated that there was no significant relationship between participants' reported level of satisfaction with the social work service provided and the change in participants' empowerment scores before and after intervention. Most demographic and intervention. variables tested did not yield any significant associations with satisfaction or change in empowerment. However, it was found that those who received both counselling and practical assistance (rather than only one or the other) and those with a higher level of education were more likely to report an increase in their level of empowerment after receiving social work intervention. This study lends further support to the contention that satisfaction questionnaires alone may not provide reliable information with regard to the utility and effectiveness of paediatric hospital social work intervention.

Assessing cost-effectiveness - Mental health: introduction to the study and methods

Objective: The Assessing Cost-Effectiveness - Mental Health (ACE-MH) study aims to assess from a health sector perspective, whether there are options for change that could improve the effectiveness and efficiency of Australia's current mental health services by directing available resources toward 'best practice' cost-effective services. Method: The use of standardized evaluation methods addresses the reservations expressed by many economists about the simplistic use of League Tables based on economic studies confounded by differences in methods, context and setting. The cost-effectiveness ratio for each intervention is calculated using economic and epidemiological data. This includes systematic reviews and randomised controlled trials for efficacy, the Australian Surveys of Mental Health and Wellbeing for current practice and a combination of trials and longitudinal studies for adherence. The cost-effectiveness ratios are presented as cost (A$) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) saved with a 95% uncertainty interval based on Monte Carlo simulation modelling. An assessment of interventions on 'second filter' criteria ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') allows broader concepts of 'benefit' to be taken into account, as well as factors that might influence policy judgements in addition to cost-effectiveness ratios. Conclusions: The main limitation of the study is in the translation of the effect size from trials into a change in the DALY disability weight, which required the use of newly developed methods. While comparisons within disorders are valid, comparisons across disorders should be made with caution. A series of articles is planned to present the results.

Cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors for major depression in children and adolescents

Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD) in children and adolescents, compared to 'current practice'. Method: The health benefit is measured as a reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on effect size calculations from meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. An assessment on second stage filter criteria ('equity'; 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Costs and benefits are tracked for the duration of a new episode of MDD arising in eligible children (age 6-17 years) in the Australian population in the year 2000. Simulation-modelling techniques are used to present a 95% uncertainty interval (UI) around the cost-effectiveness ratios. Results: Compared to current practice, CBT by public psychologists is the most cost-effective intervention for MDD in children and adolescents at A$9000 per DALY saved (95% UI A$3900 to A$24 000). SSRIs and CBT by other providers are less cost-effective but likely to be less than A$50 000 per DALY saved (> 80% chance). CBT is more effective than SSRIs in children and adolescents, resulting in a greater total health benefit (DALYs saved) than could be achieved with SSRIs. Issues that require attention for the CBT intervention include equity concerns, ensuring an adequate workforce, funding arrangements and acceptability to various stakeholders. Conclusions: Cognitive behavioural therapy provided by a public psychologist is the most effective and cost-effective option for the first-line treatment of MDD in children and adolescents. However, this option is not currently accessible by all patients and will require change in policy to allow more widespread uptake. It will also require 'start-up' costs and attention to ensuring an adequate workforce.

Cost-effectiveness of psychological and pharmacological interventions for generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder

Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of interventions for generalized anxiety disorder (cognitive behavioural therapy [CBT] and serotonin and noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors [SNRIs]) and panic disorder (CBT, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors [SSRIs] and tricyclic antidepressants [TCAs]). Method: The health benefit is measured as a reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on effect size calculations from meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. An assessment on second stage filters ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Costs and benefits are calculated for a period of one year for the eligible population (prevalent cases of generalized anxiety disorder/panic disorder identified in the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing, extrapolated to the Australian population in the year 2000 for those aged 18 years and older). Simulation modelling techniques are used to present 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) around the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results: Compared to current practice, CBT by a psychologist on a public salary is the most cost-effective intervention for both generalized anxiety disorder (A$6900/DALY saved; 95% UI A$4000 to A$12 000) and panic disorder (A$6800/DALY saved; 95% UI A$2900 to A$15 000). Cognitive behavioural therapy results in a greater total health benefit than the drug interventions for both anxiety disorders, although equity and feasibility concerns for CBT interventions are also greater. Conclusions: Cognitive behavioural therapy is the most effective and cost-effective intervention for generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder. However, its implementation would require policy change to enable more widespread access to a sufficient number of trained therapists for the treatment of anxiety disorders.