Tax reforms and inequality: theoretical and empirical implications

In this paper we examine the effect of tax policy on the relationship between inequality and growth in a two-sector non-scale model. With non-scale models, the longrun equilibrium growth rate is determined by technological parameters and it is independent of macroeconomic policy instruments. However, this fact does not imply that fiscal policy is unimportant for long-run economic performance. It indeed has important effects on the different levels of key economic variables such as per capita stock of capital and output. Hence, although the economy grows at the same rate across steady states, the bases for economic growth may be different.The model has three essential features. First, we explicitly model skill accumulation, second, we introduce government finance into the production function, and we introduce an income tax to mirror the fiscal events of the 1980¿s and 1990¿s in the US. The fact that the non-scale model is associated with higher order dynamics enables it to replicate the distinctly non-linear nature of inequality in the US with relative ease. The results derived in this paper attract attention to the fact that the non-scale growth model does not only fit the US data well for the long-run (Jones, 1995b) but also that it possesses unique abilities in explaining short term fluctuations of the economy. It is shown that during transition the response of the relative simulated wage to changes in the tax code is rather non-monotonic, quite in accordance to the US inequality pattern in the 1980¿s and early 1990¿s.More specifically, we have analyzed in detail the dynamics following the simulation of an isolated tax decrease and an isolated tax increase. So, after a tax decrease the skill premium follows a lower trajectory than the one it would follow without a tax decrease. Hence we are able to reduce inequality for several periods after the fiscal shock. On the contrary, following a tax increase, the evolution of the skill premium remains above the trajectory carried on by the skill premium under a situation with no tax increase. Consequently, a tax increase would imply a higher level of inequality in the economy

Agglomeration and labour productivity in Spanish industry: a long-term analysis

This paper analyzes the relationship between spatial density of economic activity and interregional differences in the productivity of industrial labour in Spain during the period 1860-1999. In the spirit of Ciccone and Hall (1996) and Ciccone (2002), we analyze the evolution of this relationship over the long term in Spain. Using data on the period 1860-1999 we show the existence of an agglomeration effect linking the density of economic activity with labour productivity in the industry. This effect was present since the beginning of the industrialization process in the middle of the 19th century but has been decreasing over time. The estimated elasticity of labour productivity with respect to employment density was close to 8% in the subperiod 1860-1900, reduces to a value of around 7% in the subperiod 1914-1930, to 4% in the subperiod 1965-1979 and becomes insignificant in the final subperiod 1985-1999. At the end of the period analyzed there is no evidence of the existence of net agglomeration effects in the industry. This result could be explained by an important increase in the congestion effects in large industrial metropolitan areas that would have compensated the centripetal or agglomeration forces at work. Furthermore, this result is also consistent with the evidence of a dispersion of industrial activity in Spain during the last decades.

The determinants of industrial location in Spain, 1856-1929

Durant el segle XIX, l'economia espanyola va transitar per les primeres etapes de la industrialització. Aquest procés es va donar en paral·lel a la integració del mercat domèstic de béns i factors, en un moment en què les reformes liberals i la construcció de la xarxa ferroviària, entre d'altres, van generar una important caiguda en els costos detransport. Al mateix temps que es donava aquesta progressiva integració del mercat domèstic espanyol, es van produir canvis significatius en la pauta de localització industrial. D'una banda, hi hagué un augment considerable de la concentració espacial de la indústria des de mitjans de segle XIX i fins a la Guerra Civil, i d¿altra, un increment de l'especialització regional. Ara bé, quines van ser les forces que van generar aquests canvis? Des d¿un punt de vista teòric, el model de Heckscher-Ohlin suggereix que la distribució a l'espai de l¿activitat econòmica ve determinada per l'avantatge comparativa dels territoris en funció de la dotació relativa de factors. Al seu torn, els models de Nova Geografia Econòmica (NEG) mostren l'existència d'una relació en forma de campana entre el procés d'integració econòmica i el grau de concentració geogràfica de l'activitat industrial. Aquest article examina empíricament els determinants de la localització industrial a Espanya entre 1856 i 1929, mitjançant l'estimació d¿un model que combina els elements de tipus Heckscher-Ohlin i els factors apuntats des de la NEG, amb l'objectiu de contrastar la força relativa dels arguments vinculats a aquestes dues interpretacions a l'hora de modular la localització de la indústria a Espanya. L'anàlisi dels resultats obtinguts mostra que tant la dotació de factors com els mecanismes de tipus NEG van ser elements determinants que expliquen la distribució geogràfica de la indústria des del segle XIX, tot i que la seva força relativa va anar variant amb el temps.

Effects of differential taxation on factor accumulation and growth

In this paper we try to analyze the role of fiscal policy in fostering a higher participation of the different production factors in the human capital production sector in the long-run. Introducing a tax on physical capital and differentiating both a tax on raw labor wage and a tax on skills or human capital we also attempt to present a way to influence inequality as measured by the skill premium, thus trying to relate the increase in human capital with the decrease in income inequality. We will do that in the context of a non-scale growth model.The model here is capable to alter the shares of private factors devoted to each of the two production sectors, final output and human capital, and affect inequality in a different way according to the different tax changes. The simulation results derived in the paper show how a human capital (skills) tax cut, which could be interpreted as a reduction in progressivity, ends up increasing both the shares of labor and physical capital devoted to the production of knowledge and decreasing inequality. Moreover, a raw labor wage tax decrease, which could also be interpreted as an increase in the progressivity of the system, increases the share of labor devoted to the production of final output and increases inequality. Finally, a physical capital tax decrease reduces the share of physical capital devoted to the production of knowledge and allows for a lower inequality value. Nevertheless, none of the various types of taxes ends up changing the share of human capital in the knowledge production, which will deserve our future attention

Top income shares in Portugal over the twentieth century

[cat] L’objectiu d’aquest article és presentar nova evidència estadística sobre l’evolució de les desigualtats econòmiques a Portugal a llarg termini. L’explotació de les fonts fiscals portugueses ha permès l’estimació annual de les top income shares des de 1936. La construcció d’aquesta nova sèrie s’ha fet seguint la metodologia emprada per Piketty (2001). Aquesta nova sèrie revela una caiguda de les top income shares durant la Segona Guerra Mundial, seguida d’una recuperació fins a principis dels anys cinquanta. Des de mitjans dels cinquanta fins a principis dels anys vuitanta hi ha una caiguda dràstica de les top income shares. Per acabar, durant els anys noranta les top income shares tornen a augmentar. Aquesta pauta és molt similar a la viscuda en altres països: la reducció de les top income shares durant l’època daurada és compartida per tots els països estudiats i el seu increment als anys noranta sembla que alinea Portugal amb la pauta seguida pels països Anglosaxons.

Tax reforms and inequality: theoretical and empirical implications

In this paper we examine the effect of tax policy on the relationship between inequality and growth in a two-sector non-scale model. With non-scale models, the longrun equilibrium growth rate is determined by technological parameters and it is independent of macroeconomic policy instruments. However, this fact does not imply that fiscal policy is unimportant for long-run economic performance. It indeed has important effects on the different levels of key economic variables such as per capita stock of capital and output. Hence, although the economy grows at the same rate across steady states, the bases for economic growth may be different.The model has three essential features. First, we explicitly model skill accumulation, second, we introduce government finance into the production function, and we introduce an income tax to mirror the fiscal events of the 1980¿s and 1990¿s in the US. The fact that the non-scale model is associated with higher order dynamics enables it to replicate the distinctly non-linear nature of inequality in the US with relative ease. The results derived in this paper attract attention to the fact that the non-scale growth model does not only fit the US data well for the long-run (Jones, 1995b) but also that it possesses unique abilities in explaining short term fluctuations of the economy. It is shown that during transition the response of the relative simulated wage to changes in the tax code is rather non-monotonic, quite in accordance to the US inequality pattern in the 1980¿s and early 1990¿s.More specifically, we have analyzed in detail the dynamics following the simulation of an isolated tax decrease and an isolated tax increase. So, after a tax decrease the skill premium follows a lower trajectory than the one it would follow without a tax decrease. Hence we are able to reduce inequality for several periods after the fiscal shock. On the contrary, following a tax increase, the evolution of the skill premium remains above the trajectory carried on by the skill premium under a situation with no tax increase. Consequently, a tax increase would imply a higher level of inequality in the economy

Resting heart rate and the risk of heart failure in healthy adults: the rotterdam study.

Background- An elevated resting heart rate is associated with rehospitalization for heart failure and is a modifiable risk factor in heart failure patients. We aimed to examine the association between resting heart rate and incident heart failure in a population-based cohort study of healthy adults without pre-existing overt heart disease. Methods and Results- We studied 4768 men and women aged ≥55 years from the population-based Rotterdam Study. We excluded participants with prevalent heart failure, coronary heart disease, pacemaker, atrial fibrillation, atrioventricular block, and those using β-blockers or calcium channel blockers. We used extended Cox models allowing for time-dependent variation of resting heart rate along follow-up. During a median of 14.6 years of follow-up, 656 participants developed heart failure. The risk of heart failure was higher in men with higher resting heart rate. For each increment of 10 beats per minute, the multivariable adjusted hazard ratios in men were 1.16 (95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.28; P=0.005) in the time-fixed heart rate model and 1.13 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.25; P=0.017) in the time-dependent heart rate model. The association could not be demonstrated in women (P for interaction=0.004). Censoring participants for incident coronary heart disease or using time-dependent models to account for the use of β-blockers or calcium channel blockers during follow-up did not alter the results. Conclusions- Baseline or persistent higher resting heart rate is an independent risk factor for the development of heart failure in healthy older men in the general population.

Diet and the risk of head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis in the INHANCE consortium.

We investigated the association between diet and head and neck cancer (HNC) risk using data from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium. The INHANCE pooled data included 22 case-control studies with 14,520 cases and 22,737 controls. Center-specific quartiles among the controls were used for food groups, and frequencies per week were used for single food items. A dietary pattern score combining high fruit and vegetable intake and low red meat intake was created. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the dietary items on the risk of HNC were estimated with a two-stage random-effects logistic regression model. An inverse association was observed for higher-frequency intake of fruit (4th vs. 1st quartile OR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.43-0.62, p (trend) < 0.01) and vegetables (OR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.49-0.90, p (trend) = 0.01). Intake of red meat (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.13-1.74, p p (trend) < 0.01) was positively associated with HNC risk. Higher dietary pattern scores, reflecting high fruit/vegetable and low red meat intake, were associated with reduced HNC risk (per score increment OR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.84-0.97).

Long maximal incremental tests accurately assess aerobic fitness in class II and III obese men.

This study aimed to compare two different maximal incremental tests with different time durations [a maximal incremental ramp test with a short time duration (8-12 min) (STest) and a maximal incremental test with a longer time duration (20-25 min) (LTest)] to investigate whether an LTest accurately assesses aerobic fitness in class II and III obese men. Twenty obese men (BMI≥35 kg.m-2) without secondary pathologies (mean±SE; 36.7±1.9 yr; 41.8±0.7 kg*m-2) completed an STest (warm-up: 40 W; increment: 20 W*min-1) and an LTest [warm-up: 20% of the peak power output (PPO) reached during the STest; increment: 10% PPO every 5 min until 70% PPO was reached or until the respiratory exchange ratio reached 1.0, followed by 15 W.min-1 until exhaustion] on a cycle-ergometer to assess the peak oxygen uptake [Formula: see text] and peak heart rate (HRpeak) of each test. There were no significant differences in [Formula: see text] (STest: 3.1±0.1 L*min-1; LTest: 3.0±0.1 L*min-1) and HRpeak (STest: 174±4 bpm; LTest: 173±4 bpm) between the two tests. Bland-Altman plot analyses showed good agreement and Pearson product-moment and intra-class correlation coefficients showed a strong correlation between [Formula: see text] (r=0.81 for both; p≤0.001) and HRpeak (r=0.95 for both; p≤0.001) during both tests. [Formula: see text] and HRpeak assessments were not compromised by test duration in class II and III obese men. Therefore, we suggest that the LTest is a feasible test that accurately assesses aerobic fitness and may allow for the exercise intensity prescription and individualization that will lead to improved therapeutic approaches in treating obesity and severe obesity.

The diagnostic dilemma of hyperintense fetal lung on prenatal MRI : 12.03

Purpose: In the last years, MRI appears as a complementary diagnostic method to US in the diagnosis of congenital lung lesions. Focal homogeneous pulmonary hyperintensity on T2-WI constitutes a frequent pattern observed. Our purpose is to determine if this finding is associated with a characteristic pulmonary lesion. Materials and methods: Between 01.01.00 and 31.12.07, a total of 50 prenatal MRI in fetuses with echographic diagnosis of thoracic pathology were performed in our institution, including 12 cases of suspected congenital pulmonary lesions. Prenatal images were correlated with post-natal diagnosis. Results: In 12 cases, fetal MRI detected congenital pulmonary lesions. In 8 patients, typical signs (cystic lesions, septations, anomalous vasculature) clearly suggested a specific pathology. In 4 cases, MRI showed a focal homogeneous increase of the signal intensity (SI) on T2-WI of the pathologic lung related to the normal one. The final diagnosis of these fetuses included 1 patient with congenital cystic adenomatoid malformation type III, 1 patient with segmental emphysema and 2 cases of bronchial atresia. In all 4 cases, a significant post-natal reduction of the lesion size related to prenatal MRI studies was observed. Conclusion: Our study suggests that a focal increment of the SI of the lung on T2-WI is a non specific sign of congenital lung disease, present in different pathologies. Therefore, a prospective diagnosis is not possible.

Uniformity Study of Amorphous and Microcrystalline Silicon Thin Films Deposited on 10cmx10cm Glass Substrate using Hot Wire CVD Technique

The scaling up of the Hot Wire Chemical Vapor Deposition (HW-CVD) technique to large deposition area can be done using a catalytic net of equal spaced parallel filaments. The large area deposition limit is defined as the limit whenever a further increment of the catalytic net area does not affect the properties of the deposited film. This is the case when a dense catalytic net is spread on a surface considerably larger than that of the film substrate. To study this limit, a system able to hold a net of twelve wires covering a surface of about 20 cm x 20 cm was used to deposit amorphous (a-Si:H) and microcrystalline (μc-Si:H) silicon over a substrate of 10 cm x 10 cm placed at a filament-substrate distance ranging from 1 to 2 cm. The uniformity of the film thickness d and optical constants, n(x, λ) and α(x,¯hω), was studied via transmission measurements. The thin film uniformity as a function of the filament-substrate distance was studied. The experimental thickness profile was compared with the theoretical result obtained solving the diffusion equations. The optimization of the filament-substrate distance allowed obtaining films with inhomogeneities lower than ±2.5% and deposition rates higher than 1 nm/s and 4.5 nm/s for (μc-Si:H) and (a-Si:H), respectively.

Fluoride supplements (tablets, drops, lozenges or chewing gums) for preventing dental caries in children.

BACKGROUND: Dietary fluoride supplements were first introduced to provide systemic fluoride in areas where water fluoridation is not available. Since 1990, the use of fluoride supplements in caries prevention has been re-evaluated in several countries. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the efficacy of fluoride supplements for preventing dental caries in children. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Oral Health Group's Trials Register (to 12 October 2011), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2011, Issue 3), MEDLINE via OVID (1950 to 12 October 2011), EMBASE via OVID (1980 to 12 October 2011), WHOLIS/PAHO/MEDCARIB/LILACS/BBO via BIREME (1982 to 12 October 2011), and Current Controlled Trials (to 12 October 2011). We handsearched reference lists of articles and contacted selected authors. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials comparing, with minimum follow-up of 2 years, fluoride supplements (tablets, drops, lozenges) with no fluoride supplement or with other preventive measures such as topical fluorides in children less than 16 years of age at the start. The main outcome was caries increment measured by the change in decayed, missing and filled tooth surfaces (DMFS). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors, independently and in duplicate, assessed the eligibility of studies for inclusion, and carried out risk of bias assessment and data extraction. In the event of disagreement, we sought consensus and consulted a third review author. We contacted trial authors for missing information. We used the prevented fraction (PF) as a metric for evaluating the efficacy of the intervention. The PF is defined as the mean caries increment in controls minus mean caries increment in the treated group divided by mean caries increment in controls. We conducted random-effects meta-analyses when data could be pooled. We assessed heterogeneity in the results of the studies by examining forest plots and by using formal tests for homogeneity. We recorded adverse effects (fluorosis) when the studies provided relevant data. MAIN RESULTS: We included 11 studies in the review involving 7196 children.In permanent teeth, when fluoride supplements were compared with no fluoride supplement (three studies), the use of fluoride supplements was associated with a 24% (95% confidence interval (CI) 16 to 33%) reduction in decayed, missing and filled surfaces (D(M)FS). The effect of fluoride supplements was unclear on deciduous or primary teeth. In one study, no caries-inhibiting effect was observed on deciduous teeth while in another study, the use of fluoride supplements was associated with a substantial reduction in caries increment.When fluoride supplements were compared with topical fluorides or with other preventive measures, there was no differential effect on permanent or deciduous teeth.The review found limited information on the adverse effects associated with the use of fluoride supplements. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: This review suggests that the use of fluoride supplements is associated with a reduction in caries increment when compared with no fluoride supplement in permanent teeth. The effect of fluoride supplements was unclear on deciduous teeth. When compared with the administration of topical fluorides, no differential effect was observed. We rated 10 trials as being at unclear risk of bias and one at high risk of bias, and therefore the trials provide weak evidence about the efficacy of fluoride supplements.

Usefulness of heart rate to predict cardiac events in treated patients with high-risk systemic hypertension.

A high heart rate (HR) predicts future cardiovascular events. We explored the predictive value of HR in patients with high-risk hypertension and examined whether blood pressure reduction modifies this association. The participants were 15,193 patients with hypertension enrolled in the Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation (VALUE) trial and followed up for 5 years. The HR was assessed from electrocardiographic recordings obtained annually throughout the study period. The primary end point was the interval to cardiac events. After adjustment for confounders, the hazard ratio of the composite cardiac primary end point for a 10-beats/min of the baseline HR increment was 1.16 (95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.20). Compared to the lowest HR quintile, the adjusted hazard ratio in the highest quintile was 1.73 (95% confidence interval 1.46 to 2.04). Compared to the pooled lower quintiles of baseline HR, the annual incidence of primary end point in the top baseline quintile was greater in each of the 5 study years (all p <0.05). The adjusted hazard ratio for the primary end point in the highest in-trial HR heart rate quintile versus the lowest quintile was 1.53 (95% confidence interval 1.26 to 1.85). The incidence of primary end points in the highest in-trial HR group compared to the pooled 4 lower quintiles was 53% greater in patients with well-controlled blood pressure (p <0.001) and 34% greater in those with uncontrolled blood pressure (p = 0.002). In conclusion, an increased HR is a long-term predictor of cardiovascular events in patients with high-risk hypertension. This effect was not modified by good blood pressure control. It is not yet known whether a therapeutic reduction of HR would improve cardiovascular prognosis.

Agglomeration and labour productivity in Spanish industry: a long-term analysis

This paper analyzes the relationship between spatial density of economic activity and interregional differences in the productivity of industrial labour in Spain during the period 1860-1999. In the spirit of Ciccone and Hall (1996) and Ciccone (2002), we analyze the evolution of this relationship over the long term in Spain. Using data on the period 1860-1999 we show the existence of an agglomeration effect linking the density of economic activity with labour productivity in the industry. This effect was present since the beginning of the industrialization process in the middle of the 19th century but has been decreasing over time. The estimated elasticity of labour productivity with respect to employment density was close to 8% in the subperiod 1860-1900, reduces to a value of around 7% in the subperiod 1914-1930, to 4% in the subperiod 1965-1979 and becomes insignificant in the final subperiod 1985-1999. At the end of the period analyzed there is no evidence of the existence of net agglomeration effects in the industry. This result could be explained by an important increase in the congestion effects in large industrial metropolitan areas that would have compensated the centripetal or agglomeration forces at work. Furthermore, this result is also consistent with the evidence of a dispersion of industrial activity in Spain during the last decades.

The determinants of industrial location in Spain, 1856-1929

Durant el segle XIX, l'economia espanyola va transitar per les primeres etapes de la industrialització. Aquest procés es va donar en paral·lel a la integració del mercat domèstic de béns i factors, en un moment en què les reformes liberals i la construcció de la xarxa ferroviària, entre d'altres, van generar una important caiguda en els costos detransport. Al mateix temps que es donava aquesta progressiva integració del mercat domèstic espanyol, es van produir canvis significatius en la pauta de localització industrial. D'una banda, hi hagué un augment considerable de la concentració espacial de la indústria des de mitjans de segle XIX i fins a la Guerra Civil, i d¿altra, un increment de l'especialització regional. Ara bé, quines van ser les forces que van generar aquests canvis? Des d¿un punt de vista teòric, el model de Heckscher-Ohlin suggereix que la distribució a l'espai de l¿activitat econòmica ve determinada per l'avantatge comparativa dels territoris en funció de la dotació relativa de factors. Al seu torn, els models de Nova Geografia Econòmica (NEG) mostren l'existència d'una relació en forma de campana entre el procés d'integració econòmica i el grau de concentració geogràfica de l'activitat industrial. Aquest article examina empíricament els determinants de la localització industrial a Espanya entre 1856 i 1929, mitjançant l'estimació d¿un model que combina els elements de tipus Heckscher-Ohlin i els factors apuntats des de la NEG, amb l'objectiu de contrastar la força relativa dels arguments vinculats a aquestes dues interpretacions a l'hora de modular la localització de la indústria a Espanya. L'anàlisi dels resultats obtinguts mostra que tant la dotació de factors com els mecanismes de tipus NEG van ser elements determinants que expliquen la distribució geogràfica de la indústria des del segle XIX, tot i que la seva força relativa va anar variant amb el temps.