Vertical uplift resistance of two horizontal strip anchors with common vertical axis

With an application of the upper bound finite element limit analysis, the vertical pullout capacity of a group of two horizontal strip plate anchors, with the common vertical axis and placed in a cohesive-frictional soil, has been computed. The variation of the uplift factors Fc, Fq and Fy, due to the contributions of soil cohesion, surcharge pressure and unit weight, respectively, has been evaluated for different combinations of S/B and H/B. As compared to single isolated anchor, the group of two anchors generates significantly greater magnitude of Fc for Φ ≤ 20° especially with greater values of H/B and under fully bonded anchor-soil interface condition. The factor Fc attains almost the maximum value when the upper anchor plate is placed midway between ground surface and the lower anchor plate. The factors Fq and Fy, on the other hand, for a group of two anchors are found to remain almost equal to that of a single isolated anchor as long as the levels of the lower plate in the group and the single isolated anchor are kept the same.

Target reliability-based optimisation for internal seismic stability of reinforced soil structures

In this paper, an approach for target component and system reliability-based design optimisation (RBDO) to evaluate safety for the internal seismic stability of geosynthetic-reinforced soil (GRS) structures is presented. Three modes of failure are considered: tension failure of the bottom-most layer of reinforcement, pullout failure of the topmost layer of reinforcement, and total pullout failure of all reinforcement layers. The analysis is performed by treating backfill properties, geometric and strength properties of reinforcement as random variables. The optimum number of reinforcement layers and optimum pullout length needed to maintain stability against tension failure, pullout failure and total pullout failure for different coefficients of variation of friction angle of the backfill, design strength of the reinforcement and horizontal seismic acceleration coefficients by targeting various system reliability indices are proposed. The results provide guidelines for the total length of reinforcement required, considering the variability of backfill as well as seismic coefficients. One illustrative example is presented to explain the evaluation of reliability for internal stability of reinforced soil structures using the proposed approach. In the second illustration (the stability of five walls), the Kushiro wall subjected to the Kushiro-Oki earthquake, the Seiken wall subjected to the Chiba-ken Toho-Oki earthquake, the Ta Kung wall subjected to the Ji-Ji earthquake, and the Gould and Valencia walls subjected to Northridge earthquake are re-examined.

Three-Dimensional Study of Natural Convection in a Horizontal Channel With Discrete Heaters on One of Its Vertical Walls

Three-dimensional natural convection in a horizontal channel with an array of discrete flush-mounted heaters on one of its vertical walls is numerically studied. Effects of thermal conductivities of substrate and heaters and convection on outer sides of the channel walls on heat transfer are examined. The substrate affects heat transfer in a wider range of thermal conductivities than do the heaters. At lower heater thermal conductivities a higher heat portion is transferred by direct convection from the heaters to the adjacent coolant. However, higher substrate conductivity is associated with higher heat portion transferred through the substrate. The innermost heater column is found to become the hottest heater column due to the lower coolant accessibility. The heat transfer in the channel is strongly influenced by convection on the outer sides of the channel walls. Correlations are presented for dimensionless temperature maximum and average Nusselt number.

Vertical Uplift Resistance of Two Interfering Horizontal Anchors in Clay

The vertical uplift resistance of two interfering rigid strip plate anchors embedded horizontally at the same level in clay has been examined. The lower and upper bound theorems of the limit analysis in combination with finite-elements and linear optimization have been employed to compute the failure load in a bound form. The analysis is meant for an undrained condition and it incorporates the increase of cohesion with depth. For different clear spacing (S) between the anchors, the magnitude of the efficiency factor (eta c gamma) resulting from the combined components of soil cohesion (c) and soil unit weight (gamma), has been computed for different values of embedment ratio (H/B), the rate of linear increase of cohesion with depth (m) and normalized unit weight (gamma H/c). The magnitude of eta c gamma has been found to reduce continuously with a decrease in the spacing between the anchors, and the uplift resistance becomes minimum for S/B=0. It has been noted that the critical spacing between the anchors required to eliminate the interference effect increases continuously with (1) an increase in H/B, and (2) a decrease in m.

Reliability-based load and resistance factor design approach for external seismic stability of reinforced soil walls

Load and resistance factor design (LRFD) approach for the design of reinforced soil walls is presented to produce designs with consistent and uniform levels of risk for the whole range of design applications. The evaluation of load and resistance factors for the reinforced soil walls based on reliability theory is presented. A first order reliability method (FORM) is used to determine appropriate ranges for the values of the load and resistance factors. Using pseudo-static limit equilibrium method, analysis is conducted to evaluate the external stability of reinforced soil walls subjected to earthquake loading. The potential failure mechanisms considered in the analysis are sliding failure, eccentricity failure of resultant force (or overturning failure) and bearing capacity failure. The proposed procedure includes the variability associated with reinforced backfill, retained backfill, foundation soil, horizontal seismic acceleration and surcharge load acting on the wall. Partial factors needed to maintain the stability against three modes of failure by targeting component reliability index of 3.0 are obtained for various values of coefficients of variation (COV) of friction angle of backfill and foundation soil, distributed dead load surcharge, cohesion of the foundation soil and horizontal seismic acceleration. A comparative study between LRFD and allowable stress design (ASD) is also presented with a design example. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variability of cloud liquid water and ice over South Asia from TMI estimates

In this study, the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission based Microwave Imager estimates (2A12) have been used to compare and contrast the characteristics of cloud liquid water and ice over the Indian land region and the ocean surrounding it, during the premonsoon (May) and monsoon (June-September) seasons. Based on the spatial homogeneity of rainfall, we have selected five regions for our study (three over ocean, two over land). Comparison across three ocean regions suggests that the cloud liquid water (CLW) over the orographically influenced Arabian Sea (close to the Indian west coast) behaves differently from the CLW over a trapped ocean (Bay of Bengal) or an open ocean (equatorial Indian Ocean). Specifically, the Arabian Sea region shows higher liquid water for a lower range of rainfall, whereas the Bay of Bengal and the equatorial Indian Ocean show higher liquid water for a higher range of rainfall. Apart from geographic differences, we also documented seasonal differences by comparing CLW profiles between monsoon and premonsoon periods, as well as between early and peak phases of the monsoon. We find that the CLW during the lean periods of rainfall (May or June) is higher than during the peak and late monsoon season (July-September) for raining clouds. As active and break phases are important signatures of the monsoon progression, we also analysed the differences in CLW during various phases of the monsoon, namely, active, break, active-to-break and break-to-active transition phases. We find that the cloud liquid water content during the break-to-active transition phase is significantly higher than during the active-to-break transition phase over central India. We speculate that this could be attributed to higher amount of aerosol loading over this region during the break phase. We lend credence to this aerosol-CLW/rain association by comparing the central Indian CLW with that over southeast Asia (where the aerosol loading is significantly smaller) and find that in the latter region, there are no significant differences in CLW during the different phases of the monsoon. While our hypothesis needs to be further investigated with numerical models, the results presented in this study can potentially serve as a good benchmark in evaluating the performance of cloud resolving models over the Indian region.

Temporal variability of forest communities: empirical estimates of population change in 4000 tree species

Long-term surveys of entire communities of species are needed to measure fluctuations in natural populations and elucidate the mechanisms driving population dynamics and community assembly. We analysed changes in abundance of over 4000 tree species in 12 forests across the world over periods of 6-28years. Abundance fluctuations in all forests are large and consistent with population dynamics models in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role. At some sites we identify clear environmental drivers, such as fire and drought, that could underlie these patterns, but at other sites there is a need for further research to identify drivers. In addition, cross-site comparisons showed that abundance fluctuations were smaller at species-rich sites, consistent with the idea that stable environmental conditions promote higher diversity. Much community ecology theory emphasises demographic variance and niche stabilisation; we encourage the development of theory in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role.

Influence of Spatial Variability on Pavement Responses Using Latin Hypercube Sampling on Two-Dimensional Random Fields

Although uncertainties in material properties have been addressed in the design of flexible pavements, most current modeling techniques assume that pavement layers are homogeneous. The paper addresses the influence of the spatial variability of the resilient moduli of pavement layers by evaluating the effect of the variance and correlation length on the pavement responses to loading. The integration of the spatially varying log-normal random field with the finite-difference method has been achieved through an exponential autocorrelation function. The variation in the correlation length was found to have a marginal effect on the mean values of the critical strains and a noticeable effect on the standard deviation which decreases with decreases in correlation length. This reduction in the variance arises because of the spatial averaging phenomenon over the softer and stiffer zones generated because of spatial variability. The increase in the mean value of critical strains with decreasing correlation length, although minor, illustrates that pavement performance is adversely affected by the presence of spatially varying layers. The study also confirmed that the higher the variability in the pavement layer moduli, introduced through a higher value of coefficient of variation (COV), the higher the variability in the pavement response. The study concludes that ignoring spatial variability by modeling the pavement layers as homogeneous that have very short correlation lengths can result in the underestimation of the critical strains and thus an inaccurate assessment of the pavement performance. (C) 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Estimates of site response based on spectral ratio between horizontal and vertical components of ambient vibrations in the source zone of 2001 Bhuj earthquake

We investigated the site response characteristics of Kachchh rift basin over the meizoseismal area of the 2001, Mw 7.6, Bhuj (NW India) earthquake using the spectral ratio of the horizontal and vertical components of ambient vibrations. Using the available knowledge on the regional geology of Kachchh and well documented ground responses from the earthquake, we evaluated the H/V curves pattern across sediment filled valleys and uplifted areas generally characterized by weathered sandstones. Although our HIV curves showed a largely fuzzy nature, we found that the hierarchical clustering method was useful for comparing large numbers of response curves and identifying the areas with similar responses. Broad and plateau shaped peaks of a cluster of curves within the valley region suggests the possibility of basin effects within valley. Fundamental resonance frequencies (f(0)) are found in the narrow range of 0.1-2.3 Hz and their spatial distribution demarcated the uplifted regions from the valleys. In contrary, low HIV peak amplitudes (A(0) = 2-4) were observed on the uplifted areas and varying values (2-9) were found within valleys. Compared to the amplification factors, the liquefaction indices (kg) were able to effectively indicate the areas which experienced severe liquefaction. The amplification ranges obtained in the current study were found to be comparable to those obtained from earthquake data for a limited number of seismic stations located on uplifted areas; however the values on the valley region may not reflect their true amplification potential due to basin effects. Our study highlights the practical usefulness as well as limitations of the HIV method to study complex geological settings as Kachchh. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structural studies on Mycobacterium tuberculosis RecA: Molecular plasticity and interspecies variability

Structures of crystals of Mycobacterium tuberculosis RecA, grown and analysed under different conditions, provide insights into hitherto underappreciated details of molecular structure and plasticity. In particular, they yield information on the invariant and variable features of the geometry of the P-loop, whose binding to ATP is central for all the biochemical activities of RecA. The strengths of interaction of the ligands with the P-loop reveal significant differences. This in turn affects the magnitude of the motion of the `switch' residue, Gln195 in M. tuberculosis RecA, which triggers the transmission of ATP-mediated allosteric information to the DNA binding region. M. tuberculosis RecA is substantially rigid compared with its counterparts from M smegmatis and E. coli, which exhibit concerted internal molecular mobility. The interspecies variability in the plasticity of the two mycobacterial proteins is particularly surprising as they have similar sequence and 3D structure. Details of the interactions of ligands with the protein, characterized in the structures reported here, could be useful for design of inhibitors against M. tuberculosis RecA.

On the variability in fracture toughness of `ductile' bulk metallic glasses

The mode I fracture toughness, K-Ic, of ductile bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) exhibits a high degree of specimen-to-specimen variability. By conducting fracture experiments in modes I and II, we demonstrate that the observed high variability in mode I, vis-a-vis mode II, is a result of highly variable propensity for the conversion of shear bands into cracks in mode I whereas in mode II, crack growth direction is fixed. Thus, the measured variability in K-Ic is intrinsic to the nature of BMGs. (C) 2015 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decreasing intensity of monsoon low-frequency intraseasonal variability over India

Understanding the changing nature of the intraseasonal oscillatory (ISO) modes of Indian summer monsoon manifested by active and break phase, and their association with extreme rainfall events are necessary for probabilistic estimation of flood-related risks in a warming climate. Here, using ground-based observed rainfall, we define an index to measure the strength of monsoon ISOs and show that the relative strength of the northward-propagating low-frequency ISO (20-60 days) modes have had a significant decreasing trend during the past six decades, possibly attributed to the weakening of large-scale circulation in the region during monsoon season. This reduction is compensated by a gain in synoptic-scale (3-9 days) variability. The decrease in low-frequency ISO variability is associated with a significant decreasing trend in the percentage of extreme events during the active phase of the monsoon. However, this decrease is balanced by significant increasing trends in the percentage of extreme events in the break and transition phases. We also find a significant rise in the occurrence of extremes during early and late monsoon months, mainly over eastern coastal regions. Our study highlights the redistribution of rainfall intensity among periodic (low-frequency) and non-periodic (extreme) modes in a changing climate scenario.

Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.

Microstructural evolution and strength variability in microwires

Tensile experiments on cold-drawn Ni microwires with diameters from similar to 115 to 50 gm revealed high strengths, with significant strength variability for finer wires with diameters less than similar to 50 gm. The wires showed pronounced necking at fracture. The coarser wires with diameters > 50 mu m exhibited conventional ductile cup-cone fracture, with dimples in the central zone and peripheral shear lips, whereas finer wires failed by shear with knife or chisel-edge fractures. Shear bands were observed in all samples. Further, through- section microscopy of selected fractured samples revealed that the shear bands did not go across the enitre specimen for the coarser wires. The shear bands led to grain fragmention, with a reduction in grain aspect ratio as well as rotations away from the initial < 111 > orientations. The strength data were analysed based on a Weibull approach. The data could be rationalized in terms of failure from volume defects in coarser wires, with a high Weibull modulus, and from surface defects in finer wires, with a low Weibull modulus and greater variability. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.