Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change

Climate change affects both economy and society in several ways throughout the world. Therefore, well-targeted global and regional actions must be taken. In this paper I assess the different options for climate change mitigation policies and analyse the possibilities of adaptation methods. I will focus on three aspects: cost-efficiency, innovation and flexibility.

Public price of climate change

Aim of the paper: The purpose is to gather the practices and to model the impacts of climate change on fiscal spending and revenues, responsibilities and opportunities, balance and debt related to climate change (CC). Methodology of the paper: The methodology will distinguish fiscal cost of mitigation and adaptation, besides direct and indirect costs. It will also introduce cost benefit analyses to evaluate the propensity of policy makers for action or passivity. Several scenarios will be drafted to see the different outcomes. The scenarios shall contain the possible losses in the natural and artificial environment and resources. Impacts on public budget are based on damage of income opportunities and capital/wealth/natural assets. There will be a list of actions when the fiscal correction of market failures will be necessary. Findings: There will be a summary and synthesis of estimation models on CC impacts on public finances, and morals of existing/existed budgeting practices on mitigation. The model will be based on damages (and maybe benefits) from CC, adjusted with probabilities of sce-narios and policy making propensity for action. Findings will cover the way of funding of fiscal costs. Practical use, value added: From the synthesis of model, the fiscal cost of mitigation and adaptation can be estimated for any developed, emerging and developing countries. The paper will try to reply, also, for the challenge how to harmonize fiscal and developmental sustainability.

Climate Change and Regions at Risk: A Look at Central America

Climate change has been a security issue for mankind since Homo sapiens first emerged on the planet, driving him to find new and better food, water, shelter, and basic resources for survival and the advancement of civilization. Only recently, however, has the rate of climate change coupled with man’s knowledge of his own role in that change accelerated, perhaps profoundly, changing the security paradigm. If we take a ―decades‖ look at the security issue, we see competition for natural resources giving way to Cold War ideological containment and deterrence, itself giving way to non-state terrorism and extremism. While we continue to defend against these threats, we are faced with even greater security challenges that inextricably tie economic, food and human security together and where the flash points may not provide clearly discernable causes, as they will be intrinsically tied to climate change. Several scientific reports have revealed that the modest development gains that can be realized by some regions could be reversed by climate change. This means that climate change is not just a long-term environmental threat as was widely believed, but an economic and developmental disaster that is unfolding. As such, addressing climate change has become central to the development and poverty reduction by the World Bank and other financial institutions. In Latin America, poorer countries and communities, such as those found in Central America, will suffer the hardest because of weaker resilience and greater reliance on climatesensitive sectors such as agriculture. The US should attempt to deliver capability to assist these states to deal with the effects of climate change.

Farmers' Resilience to Climate Change in the Welsh Marshes

Climate change will exacerbate challenges facing food security in the UK. Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will further impact upon farm systems. At the heart of the impending challenges to UK agricultural production, farmers’ resilience will be tested to new limits. Research into farmers’ resilience to climate change in the UK is distinctly underdeveloped when compared to research in developing and other developed nations. This research gap is addressed through exploration of farmers’ resilience in the Welsh Marches, establishing the role of risk perceptions, local knowledge and adaptive capacity in farmers’ decision-making to limit climate shocks. Further contributions to agricultural geography are made through experimentation of a ‘cultural-behavioural approach’, seeking to revisit the behavioural approach in view of the cultural-turn. The Welsh Marches, situated on the English-Welsh border, has been selected as a focal point due to its agricultural diversity, and known experiences of extreme weather events. A phased mixed methodological approach is adopted. Phase one explores recorded and reported experiences of past extreme weather events in local meteorological records and local newspaper articles. Phase two consists of 115 survey-questionnaires, 15 in-depth semi-structured interviews, and a scenario based focus group with selected farmers from the Welsh Marches. This allows farmers’ resilience to climate change in the past, present and future to be explored. Original contributions to knowledge are made through demonstrating the value of focusing upon the culture of a specific farm community, applying a ‘bottom-up’ approach. The priority given to the weather in farmers’ decision-making is identified to be determined by individual relationships that farmers’ develop with the weather. Yet, a consensus of farmers’ observations has established recognition of considerable changes in the weather over the last 30 years, acknowledging more extremes and seasonal variations. In contrast, perceptions of future climate change are largely varied. Farmers are found to be disengaged with the communication of climate change science, as the global impacts portrayed are distant in time and place from probable impacts that may be experienced locally. Current communication of climate change information has been identified to alienate farmers from the local reality of probable future impacts. Adaptation options and responses to extreme weather and climate change are identified from measures found to be already implemented and considered for the future. A greater need to explore local knowledge and risk perception in relation to farmers’ understanding of future climate challenges is clear. There is a need to conduct comparable research in different farm communities across the UK. Progression into establishing the role of farmers’ resilience in responding effectively to future climate challenges has only just begun.

Some Like It Hot: The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa

The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (US) coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei), the most important pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in East Africa: increased damage to coffee crops and expansion in its distribution range have been reported. In order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for H. hampei we present here, maps on future distributions of H. hampei in coffee producing areas of East Africa. Using the CLIMEX model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios A2A and B2B (for HADCM3 model). In both scenarios, the situation with H. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. These outcomes will have serious implications for C. arabica production and livelihoods in East Africa. We suggest that the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the introduction of shade trees in sun grown plantations. The aims of this study are to fill knowledge gaps existing in the coffee industry, and to draft an outline for the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production. An abstract in Spanish is provided as Abstract S1.

Too many presidents "spoil the broth"?- What role for the European Commission in global climate change politics?

The European Union is the only supranational organisation to have both implemented ‘domestic’ climate change policy and provided leadership for the international community on adaptation and mitigation measures. Although the competence for action in climate change is shared between the national governments and the supranational level of the European Union, on behalf of the EU the European Commission has played a prominent role in international climate change negotiations. The Lisbon Treaty (in force December 2009) brought a number of changes to the institutional framework of the European Union, most significantly to the European Council and the external role of the EU. These changes appear to have added to the complexity which surrounds issues of the external representation of the EU and not simplified them – are there too many ‘Presidents’ of these institutions vying for a role? This paper questions the extent to which these changes will impact on the Commission headed by Jose Manuel Barroso, Barroso II Commission (2009-2014), particularly on Barroso’s ability to provide leadership on ‘domestic’ climate change policy and hence direction to the approach which the EU takes in global climate change politics.

Role of climate on barn owls road-kill likelihood and the effect on population viability in future climate change

Roads represent a new source of mortality due to animal-vehicle risk of collision threatening log-term populations’ viability. Risk of road-kill depends on species sensitivity to roads and their specific life-history traits. The risk of road mortality for each species depends on the characteristics of roads and bioecological characteristics of the species. In this study we intend to know the importance of climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) together with traffic and life history traits and understand the role of drought in barn owl population viability, also affected by road mortality in three scenarios: high mobility, high population density and the combination of previous scenarios (mixed) (Manuscript). For the first objective we correlated the several parameters (climate, traffic and life history traits). We used the most correlated variables to build a predictive mixed model (GLMM) the influence of the same. Using a population model we evaluated barn owl population viability in all three scenarios. Model revealed precipitation, traffic and dispersal have negative relationship with road-kills, although the relationship was not significant. Scenarios showed different results, high mobility scenario showed greater population depletion, more fluctuations over time and greater risk of extinction. High population density scenario showed a more stable population with lower risk of extinction and mixed scenario showed similar results as first scenario. Climate seems to play an indirect role on barn owl road-kills, it may influence prey availability which influences barn owl reproductive success and activity. Also, high mobility scenario showed a greater negative impact on viability of populations which may affect their ability and resilience to other stochastic events. Future research should take in account climate and how it may influence species life cycles and activity periods for a more complete approach of road-kills. Also it is important to make the best mitigation decisions which might include improving prey quality habitat.

Integrating Environmental Justice and Social-Ecological Resilience for Successful Adaptation to Climate Change: Lessons from African American Communities on the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay

This research concerns the conceptual and empirical relationship between environmental justice and social-ecological resilience as it relates to climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Two primary questions guided this work. First, what is the level of resilience and adaptive capacity for social-ecological systems that are characterized by environmental injustice in the face of climate change? And second, what is the role of an environmental justice approach in developing adaptation policies that will promote social-ecological resilience? These questions were investigated in three African American communities that are particularly vulnerable to flooding from sea-level rise on the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay. Using qualitative and quantitative methods, I found that in all three communities, religious faith and the church, rootedness in the landscape, and race relations were highly salient to community experience. The degree to which these common aspects of the communities have imparted adaptive capacity has changed over time. Importantly, a given social-ecological factor does not have the same effect on vulnerability in all communities; however, in all communities political isolation decreases adaptive capacity and increases vulnerability. This political isolation is at least partly due to procedural injustice, which occurs for a number of interrelated reasons. This research further revealed that while all stakeholders (policymakers, environmentalists, and African American community members) generally agree that justice needs to be increased on the Eastern Shore, stakeholder groups disagree about what a justice approach to adaptation would look like. When brought together at a workshop, however, these stakeholders were able to identify numerous challenges and opportunities for increasing justice. Resilience was assessed by the presence of four resilience factors: living with uncertainty, nurturing diversity, combining different types of knowledge, and creating opportunities for self-organization. Overall, these communities seem to have low resilience; however, there is potential for resilience to increase. Finally, I argue that the use of resilience theory for environmental justice communities is limited by the great breadth and depth of knowledge required to evaluate the state of the social-ecological system, the complexities of simultaneously promoting resilience at both the regional and local scale, and the lack of attention to issues of justice.

The Impacts of Climate Change on Irrigated Agriculture in Southern Portugal

Climate change projections point to increasing air temperature and reduced precipitation in southern Portugal, which would affect farming systems. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in southern Portugal. These impacts were assessed by combining climate model data with a soil water balance model and a numerical model for the design of irrigation systems. Meteorological data from two weather stations were used along with three climate models (HadRM3P, HIRHAMh and HIRHAMhh; 2071–2100). The crop rotations studied included sugar beet–maize–tomato–wheat and sunflower–wheat–barley. Two adaptation measures were considered: (i) maintaining the current crop varieties; (ii) using new crop varieties. The results from the considered climate change scenarios indicated that the impacts of climate change on irrigation requirements depend on the adopted adaptation measures. On average, the seasonal irrigation requirements increased by 13–70% when new crop varieties were used and by −13 to 7% when the current crop varieties were maintained. The impacts of climate change on irrigation system design were considerable, with the design flow rate increasing by 5–24%.

Approaches to assess climate change effects on plant disease: (2) mapping risk in Brazil.

2008

Risk analysis of climate change on black sigatoka in banana in Brazil.

2008

Topics in climate change risk

In this Thesis, we analyze how climate risk impacts economic players and its consequences on the financial markets. Essentially, literature unravels two main channels through which climate change poses risks to the status quo, namely physical and transitional risk, that we cover in three works. Firstly, the call for a global shift to a net-zero economy implicitly devalues assets that contribute to global warming that regulators are forcing to dismiss. On the other hand, abnormal changes in the temperatures as well as weather-related events challenge the environmental equilibrium and could directly affect operations as well as profitability. We start the analysis with the physical component, by presenting a statistical measure that generally represents shocks to the distribution of temperature anomalies. We oppose this statistic to classical physical measures and assess that it is the driver of the electricity consumption, in the weather derivatives market, and in the cross-section of equity returns. We find two transmission channels, namely investor attention, and firm operations. We then analyze the transition risk component, by associating a regulatory horizon characterization to fixed income valuation. We disentangle a risk driver for corporate bond overperformance that is tight to change in credit riskiness. After controlling a statistical learning algorithm to forecast excess returns, we include carbon emission metrics without clear evidence. Finally, we analyze the effects of change in carbon emission on a regulated market such as the EU ETS by selecting utility sector corporate bond and, after controlling for the possible risk factor, we document how a firm’s carbon profile differently affects the term structure of credit riskiness.

Low carbon systems for climate change mitigation and adaptation

Global warming and climate change have been among the most controversial topics after the industrial revolution. The main contributor to global warming is carbon dioxide (CO2), which increases the temperature by trapping heat in the atmosphere. Atmospheric CO2 concentration before the industrial era was around 280 ppm for a long period, while it has increased dramatically since the industrial revolution up to approximately 420 ppm. According to the Paris agreement it is needed to keep the temperature increase up to 2°C, preferably 1.5° C, to prevent reaching the tipping point of climate change. To keep the temperature increase below the range, it is required to find solutions to reduce CO2 emissions. The solutions can be low-carbon systems and transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources (RES). This thesis is allocated to the assessment of low-carbon systems and the reduction of CO2 by using RES instead of fossil fuels. One of the most important aspects to define the location and capacity of low-carbon systems is CO2 mass estimation. As mentioned, high-emission systems can be substituted by low-carbon systems. An example of high-emission systems is dredging. The global CO2 emission from dredging is relatively high which is associated with the growth of marine transport in addition to its high emission. Thus, ejectors system as alternative for dredging is investigated in chapter 2. For the transition from fossil fuels to RES, it is required to provide solutions for the RES storage problem. A solution could be zero-emission fuels such as hydrogen. However, the production of hydrogen requires electricity, and electricity production emits a large amount of CO2. Therefore, the last three chapters are allocated to hydrogen generation via electrolysis, at the current condition and scenarios of RES and variation of cell characteristics and stack materials, and its delivery.

Wheat adaptation to climate change in the Mediterranean Basin: retracing the past to predict the future

Wheat productivity is alarmingly threatened by climate change in the Mediterranean Basin, where it is mainly cultivated as a rainfed crop and where the latest climatic projections foresee a rise in temperatures and a reduction in precipitation, with important yield losses expected, being drought the main abiotic stress hampering wheat productivity. Assessing and quantifying the alterations in wheat life cycle caused by climate change is thus a key goal, as well as understating the underlying mechanisms of drought resistance. The first part of this thesis is focused on these main topics. A precise quantification of climate change effects on wheat in this area was performed through a case study, coupling phenological, meteorological and grain quality data before and after climate change. Then, accurate and detailed literature search was performed, reviewing the main controversies regarding the reliability of various functional traits to be used as breeding tools for improving wheat drought stress resistance. The second part of this thesis is focused in identifying interesting genetic material to improve wheat drought stress resistance in the Mediterranean Basin, analyzing drought response on a panel of tetraploid wheat accessions in vitro and in vivo as well as in open field trials, chosen in the attempt to represent as much as possible the biodiversity of tetraploid wheat. The third part of this thesis highlights differences in technological, nutritional and nutraceutical quality between modern cultivars and landraces, focusing on lipids, primary metabolites and bioactive compounds. In fact, wheat adaptation to climate change does not only mean to guarantee satisfactory yields in adverse conditions. It also means to provide millions of consumers with a diet-base food crop, with an improved nutraceutical and nutritional quality. Therefore, investigation and selection process for abiotic stress resistance and for improved quality has to go hand in hand.