Multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction of daily chaotic rainfall with climate inputs

The basic characteristic of a chaotic system is its sensitivity to the infinitesimal changes in its initial conditions. A limit to predictability in chaotic system arises mainly due to this sensitivity and also due to the ineffectiveness of the model to reveal the underlying dynamics of the system. In the present study, an attempt is made to quantify these uncertainties involved and thereby improve the predictability by adopting a multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. Daily rainfall data of Malaprabha basin, India for the period 1955-2000 is used for the study. It is found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with the dimension varying from 5 to 7. A multivariate phase space is generated, considering a climate data set of 16 variables. The chaotic nature of each of these variables is confirmed using false nearest neighbor method. The redundancy, if any, of this atmospheric data set is further removed by employing principal component analysis (PCA) method and thereby reducing it to eight principal components (PCs). This multivariate series (rainfall along with eight PCs) is found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with dimension 10. Nonlinear prediction employing local approximation method is done using univariate series (rainfall alone) and multivariate series for different combinations of embedding dimensions and delay times. The uncertainty in initial conditions is thus addressed by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of parameters. The ensembles generated from multivariate predictions are found to be better than those from univariate predictions. The uncertainty in predictions is decreased or in other words predictability is increased by adopting multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. The restriction on predictability of a chaotic series can thus be altered by quantifying the uncertainty in the initial conditions and also by including other possible variables, which may influence the system. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulation of the infrared spectra of thioacetamide by the extended molecular mechanics method

The infrared spectrum of the matrix-isolated species of thioacetamide has been simulated using the extended molecular mechanics method. The equilibrium structure, vibrational frequencies, dipole moment and infrared absorption intensities of thioacetamide have been calculated in good agreement with the experiment. The vibrational frequencies and infrared absorption intensities for the isotopic molecules (CH2CSNH2)-C-13, (CH3CSNH2)-N-15 and (CH2CSND2)-C-13 have also been calculated consistent with the experiment. The infrared spectra of the matrix isolated species of N- and C- deuterated isotopomers of thioacetamide, CH3CSND2 and CD3CSNH2 have also been simulated in satisfactory agreement with the experimental spectra.

An extended Cahn-Hilliard model for interfaces with cubic anisotropy

For studying systems with a cubic anisotropy in interfacial energy sigma, we extend the Cahn-Hilliard model by including in it a fourth-rank term, namely, gamma (ijlm) [partial derivative (2) c/(partial derivativex(i) partial derivativex(j))] [partial derivative (2) c/(partial derivativex(l) partial derivativex(m))]. This term leads to an additional linear term in the evolution equation for the composition parameter field. It also leads to an orientation-dependent effective fourth-rank coefficient gamma ([hkl]) in the governing equation for the one-dimensional composition profile across a planar interface. The main effect of a non-negative gamma ([hkl]) is to increase both sigma and interfacial width w, each of which, upon suitable scaling, is related to gamma ([hkl]) through a universal scaling function. In this model, sigma is a differentiable function of interface orientation (n) over cap, and does not exhibit cusps; therefore, the equilibrium particle shapes (Wulff shapes) do not contain planar facets. However, the anisotropy in the interfacial energy can be large enough to give rise to corners in the Wulff shapes in two dimensions. In particles of finite sizes, the corners become rounded, and their shapes tend towards the Wulff shape with increasing particle size.

The extended Enskog operator for simple fluids with continuous potentials: single particle and collective properties

We generalized the Enskog theory originally developed for the hard-sphere fluid to fluids with continuous potentials, such as the Lennard–Jones. We derived the expression for the k and ω dependent transport coefficient matrix which enables us to calculate the transport coefficients for arbitrary length and time scales. Our results reduce to the conventional Chapman–Enskog expression in the low density limit and to the conventional k dependent Enskog theory in the hard-sphere limit. As examples, the self-diffusion of a single atom, the vibrational energy relaxation, and the activated barrier crossing dynamics problem are discussed.

Simulation of the infrared spectra of N-methylformamide and N-methylacetamide by the extended molecular mechanics method

The infrared spectra of the matrix isolated species of N-methylformamide (NMF) and N-methylacetamide (NMA) and their N-deuterated molecules have been simulated by the extended molecular mechanics method using an empirical force field which includes charges and charge fluxes as coulombic potential parameters. The structural parameters and dipole. moments of NMF and NMA have. also been computed in satisfactory agreement with the experiment. Good agreement between experimental and calculated vibrational frequencies and infrared absorption band intensities for NMF and NMA and their deuterated molecules has been obtained. The vibrational assignments of NMF and NMA are-discussed taking also into account the infrared absorption intensities.

Two-Stage Extended Kalman Filters with Derivative-Free Local Linearizations

This paper proposes a derivative-free two-stage extended Kalman filter (2-EKF) especially suited for state and parameter identification of mechanical oscillators under Gaussian white noise. Two sources of modeling uncertainties are considered: (1) errors in linearization, and (2) an inadequate system model. The state vector is presently composed of the original dynamical/parameter states plus the so-called bias states accounting for the unmodeled dynamics. An extended Kalman estimation concept is applied within a framework predicated on explicit and derivative-free local linearizations (DLL) of nonlinear drift terms in the governing stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The original and bias states are estimated by two separate filters; the bias filter improves the estimates of the original states. Measurements are artificially generated by corrupting the numerical solutions of the SDEs with noise through an implicit form of a higher-order linearization. Numerical illustrations are provided for a few single- and multidegree-of-freedom nonlinear oscillators, demonstrating the remarkable promise that 2-EKF holds over its more conventional EKF-based counterparts. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)EM.1943-7889.0000255. (C) 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.

A comparison of three methods for downscaling daily precipitation in the Punjab region

Many downscaling techniques have been developed in the past few years for projection of station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) to assess the hydrological impacts of climate change. This article compares the performances of three downscaling methods, viz. conditional random field (CRF), K-nearest neighbour (KNN) and support vector machine (SVM) methods in downscaling precipitation in the Punjab region of India, belonging to the monsoon regime. The CRF model is a recently developed method for downscaling hydrological variables in a probabilistic framework, while the SVM model is a popular machine learning tool useful in terms of its ability to generalize and capture nonlinear relationships between predictors and predictand. The KNN model is an analogue-type method that queries days similar to a given feature vector from the training data and classifies future days by random sampling from a weighted set of K closest training examples. The models are applied for downscaling monsoon (June to September) daily precipitation at six locations in Punjab. Model performances with respect to reproduction of various statistics such as dry and wet spell length distributions, daily rainfall distribution, and intersite correlations are examined. It is found that the CRF and KNN models perform slightly better than the SVM model in reproducing most daily rainfall statistics. These models are then used to project future precipitation at the six locations. Output from the Canadian global climate model (CGCM3) GCM for three scenarios, viz. A1B, A2, and B1 is used for projection of future precipitation. The projections show a change in probability density functions of daily rainfall amount and changes in the wet and dry spell distributions of daily precipitation. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Determinant: Old algorithms, new insights (Extended Abstract)

In this paper we approach the problem of computing the characteristic polynomial of a matrix from the combinatorial viewpoint. We present several combinatorial characterizations of the coefficients of the characteristic polynomial, in terms of walks and closed walks of different kinds in the underlying graph. We develop algorithms based on these characterizations, and show that they tally with well-known algorithms arrived at independently from considerations in linear algebra.

The inhomogeneous extended Bose-Hubbard model: A mean-field theory

We develop an inhomogeneous mean-field theory for the extended Bose-Hubbard model with a quadratic, confining potential. In the absence of this potential, our mean-field theory yields the phase diagram of the homogeneous extended Bose-Hubbard model. This phase diagram shows a superfluid (SF) phase and lobes of Mott-insulator (MI), density-wave (DW), and supersolid (SS) phases in the plane of the chemical potential mu and on-site repulsion U; we present phase diagrams for representative values of V, the repulsive energy for bosons on nearest-neighbor sites. We demonstrate that, when the confining potential is present, superfluid and density-wave order parameters are nonuniform; in particular, we obtain, for a few representative values of parameters, spherical shells of SF, MI, DW, and SS phases. We explore the implications of our study for experiments on cold-atom dipolar condensates in optical lattices in a confining potential.

Daily relative humidity projections in an Indian river basin for IPCC SRES scenarios

A two-stage methodology is developed to obtain future projections of daily relative humidity in a river basin for climate change scenarios. In the first stage, Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are developed to downscale nine sets of predictor variables (large-scale atmospheric variables) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT) to R (H) in a river basin at monthly scale. Uncertainty in the future projections of R (H) is studied for combinations of SRES scenarios, and predictors selected. Subsequently, in the second stage, the monthly sequences of R (H) are disaggregated to daily scale using k-nearest neighbor method. The effectiveness of the developed methodology is demonstrated through application to the catchment of Malaprabha reservoir in India. For downscaling, the probable predictor variables are extracted from the (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data set for the period 1978-2000 and (2) simulations of the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model for the period 1978-2100. The performance of the downscaling and disaggregation models is evaluated by split sample validation. Results show that among the SVM models, the model developed using predictors pertaining to only land location performed better. The R (H) is projected to increase in the future for A1B and A2 scenarios, while no trend is discerned for B1 and COMMIT.