Epidemiological profile of hepatitis C in blood donors at the Uberaba Regional Blood Center

The aim of the present study was to outline the serological profile of hepatitis C among blood donors seen at the Uberaba Regional Blood Center, Hemominas Foundation, over the last 14 years. The frequency of hepatitis C was compared between first-time and repeat donors and the epidemiological characteristics of those with positive and indeterminate ELISA anti-HCV (third and fourth generation) were analyzed based on the donor histories kept in the archives of the Uberaba Regional Blood Center. The serological ineligibility rate was 0.3%, with higher prevalence in the group of first-time donors. We did not find any significant differences regarding age, skin color, marital status or place of residence between eligible and ineligible donors; however, the frequency of positive serology was higher among men. The lower (0.3%) rate of ineligibility due to hepatitis C that was observed at the Uberaba Regional Blood Center, in relation to most Brazilian blood centers, is probably due to the large number of repeat donors (83.3%). This reinforces the importance of achieving donor commitment for increasing transfusion safety.

Hepatitis C: sexual or intrafamilial transmission? Epidemiological and phylogenetic analysis of hepatitis C virus in 24 infected couples

The role of sexual or intrafamilial transmission of hepatitis C is controversial. A phylogenetic analysis was performed on the non-structural region 5B of the hepatitis C virus (NS5B-HCV). High percentages of homology (mean of 98.3%) were shown between the couples. Twenty (83.3%) of the 24 men but only two of the women (8.3%) reported having had sexually transmitted diseases during their lives. The risk factors for HCV acquisition were blood transfusion (10 couples), use of illegal injected drugs (17), use of inhalants (15), acupuncture (5) and tattoos (5). The shared use of personal hygiene items included toothbrushes between six couples (25%), razor blades between 16 (66.7%), nail clippers between 21 (87.5%) and manicure pliers between 14 (58.3%). The high degree of similarity of the hepatitis C virus genome supports the hypothesis of hepatitis C virus transmission between these couples. The shared use of personal hygiene items suggests the possibility of intrafamilial transmission of infection.

Hepatitis C virus and human T-lymphotropic virus coinfection: epidemiological, clinical, laboratory and histopathological features

Twenty-four hepatitis C virus patients coinfected with human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 were compared with six coinfected with HTLV-2 and 55 with HCV alone, regarding clinical, epidemiological, laboratory and histopathological data. Fischer's discriminant analysis was applied to define functions capable of differentiating between the study groups (HCV, HCV/HTLV-1 and HCV/HTLV-2). The discriminant accuracy was evaluated by cross-validation. Alcohol consumption, use of intravenous drugs or inhaled cocaine and sexual partnership with intravenous drug users were more frequent in the HCV/HTLV-2 group, whereas patients in the HCV group more often reported abdominal pain or a sexual partner with hepatitis. Coinfected patients presented higher platelet counts, but aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase levels were higher among HCV-infected subjects. No significant difference between the groups was seen regarding liver histopathological findings. Through discriminant analysis, classification functions were defined, including sex, age group, intravenous drug use and sexual partner with hepatitis. Cross-validation revealed high discriminant accuracy for the HCV group.

Epidemiological study on leishmaniasis in an area of environmental tourism and ecotourism, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, 2006-2007

The aims of this study were to carry out a serological survey of canine leishmaniasis and identify the phlebotomine fauna in the urban area of Bonito, Mato Grosso do Sul. The serological survey was conducted on a sample of 303 dogs, by means of the indirect immunofluorescence test. Phlebotomines were captured using automated light traps. The serological survey found that 30% of the dogs were seropositive, both from the center and from all districts of the town. A total of 2,772 specimens of phlebotomines were caught and the species most found was Lutzomyia longipalpis (90.4%), which corroborated its role as the vector of for canine visceral leishmaniasis in the region. Phlebotomines of the species Bichromomyia flaviscutellata (the main vector for Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis) and Nyssomyia whitmani (the vector for Leishmania (Viannia) brasiliensis) were also caught. The findings indicate the need for continuous epidemiological surveillance, with attention towards diminishing the vector breeding sites and the transmission of these diseases in that region.

Visceral leishmaniasis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: eco-epidemiological aspects and control

From 1977 (index case) to 2006, 87 cases of visceral leishmaniasis were confirmed in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in periurban areas on the continental and coastal slopes of the Pedra Branca massif and the continental slopes of the Gericinó massif. The majority (65.5%) of the patients were more than five years old, predominantly males (61.5%), but without any difference between the sexes below the age of 14 years. The overall fatality rate was 10.4%. Two cases of visceral leishmaniasis/human immunodeficiency virus coinfection were detected. Leishmania chagasi was isolated from human and canine cases. The associations between the presence of phlebotomines and human and canine migrations, disorderly occupation involving degradation of environmental preservation areas and poor socioeconomic conditions may have created a favorable setting for the establishment and propagation of the disease. Close epidemiological surveillance associated with traditional control measures and others (active case researches, land clearing and health education), reduced the incidence of human cases from 2.8 per 100,000 inhabitants in 1981 to less than 0.01 per 100,000 since 1997. The canine infection rates decreased from 4.6% in 1984 to 1.6% in 2008. Lutzomyia longipalpis was not detected in some locations where human and canine cases occurred. In the years 2007 and 2008, no new human cases were reported, but there is a persistent and worrisome residual canine seroprevalence.

Epidemiological pattern of leprosy in an endemic area of North-East Brazil, 1996-2005: the supporting role of a Nongovernmental Organization

In an endemic area of North-East Brazil (the town of Picos, State of Piauí), a nongovernmental organization (NGO) supported the activity against leprosy in connection with governmental health organizations and local agents. The indicators of leprosy elimination were compared over time (within Picos) and across space (Picos versus Piauí). The case detection rate, above 8 per 10,000 people in the last two years of observation, increased over time in Picos (p=0.010). This finding could be due to active detection activities rather than expanding endemicity, as suggested by the reduction in leprosy in children (p=0.053) and the decrease in the proportion of new cases with grade 2 disability (p<0.001). These indicators showed a more favorable time trend in the city than in the State, suggesting that NGO activity was supportive in the battle towards leprosy control.

Avaliação epidemiológica dos internamentos através de um serviço de urgência de segunda linha (SII)

RESUMO: Introdução: A Comissão Nacional para a reestruturação dos Serviços de Saúde Mental em 2004, fez uma proposta de âmbito regional, ao nível da região de Saúde do Norte, levando a uma alteração da rede de referenciação hospitalar dos internamentos em psiquiatria. Métodos: Realizou-se um estudo epidemiológico longitudinal para avaliar factores preditivos de internamento através de um serviço de Urgência de Segunda Linha (SII), que de algum modo reflectisse o funcionamento dos serviços de internamento na região de Saúde do Norte, ao longo de 12 anos, nomeadamente relacionando com factores organizacionais contemplados no Plano Nacional de Saúde Mental e na reorganização da rede de referenciação hospitalar. Resultados: Durante os 12 anos do estudo, verificou-se um aumento estatisticamente significativo do número e duração de internamentos através do SII, com ponto de partida no ano 2008-2009, e de novo a partir do ano 2010-2011 (nº de internamentos), para o qual contribuiu a alteração da rede hospitalar na região de saúde do Norte, nomeadamente pelo facto do HMLemos, assumir a responsabilidade de novo, dos internamentos das áreas de Famalicão, Gondomar e Santa Maria da Feira. Em relação ao número de internamentos, e na análise exploratória, encontramos nas áreas hospitalares fora da área de influência do HMLemos, uma contribuição positiva significativa para o aumento do nº de internamentos ao longo dos anos com os Dx (290, 296, 297, 291, 309). Em relação à área do HMLemos restrita (PVC, STT, Matosinhos, Porto Ocidental), de referir a contribuição positiva significativa dos Dx 309 e 301, para o aumento do número de internamentos ao longo do tempo, sendo que a prevalência maior se mantém relacionada às Psicoses (Dx 295, 296 e 297). Não se concluiu por uma contribuição estatisticamente significativa ( positiva ou negativa), das variáveis independentes idade, sexo ou natureza do internamento em relação à variável dependente ( duração de internamentos/ano). Em relação á variável dependente (nº de internamentos/ano), relativamente aos doentes fora de área de influência do HMLemos, concluiu-se uma contribuição positiva estatisticamente significativa da variável independente idade. Conclusões: Através da análise exploratória foi possível perceber o esforço realizado pelos hospitais no sentido de melhorar a equidade e acessibilidade dos doentes à Saúde Mental, a par da reorganização da rede hospitalar. De destacar a necessidade de encontrar alternativas às situações de internamento, com menos critérios de gravidade diagnóstica, nomeadamente reforçar a importância da criação de consultas de crises nos respectivos Hospitais de Dia dos DPSM.----------------ABSTRACT:Introduction : The National Commission for the restructuring of mental health services in 2004 , has proposed at a regional level ( North Health Region), a change in the network of hospital referrals of admissions in psychiatry. Methods: We conducted a longitudinal epidemiological study to assess predictors of hospitalization through a Second Line Emergency Service ( SII) , that somehow reflect the operation of inpatient services in North Health Region, over 12 years, particularly relating to organizational factors included in the National Mental Health Plan and reorganization of the hospital referral network. Results: During the period of the study, there was a statistically significant increase in the number and duration of hospitalizations through the SII, with starting point in the year 2008-2009 and again from 2010-2011 (number of admissions) , for which counted the change of the hospital network referral in Northern health region , in particular because Hospital Magalhães Lemos (HMLemos) , took the new responsibility of admissions from areas of Famalicão, Gondomar and Santa Maria da Feira . Regarding the number of hospitalizations, in the exploratory analysis , we found in hospital areas outside the area of influence of HMLemos , a significant positive contribution to the increase in number of admissions over the years with Diagnosis of 290, 296, 297, 291 , 309 in the ICD-9. With respect to the restricted area of HMLemos (PVC, STT , Porto Ocidental and Matosinhos) , we found a significant positive contribution of Diagnosis 309 and 301, to increase the number of hospitalizations over time, with higher prevalence rates remaining the psychoses ( Dx 295, 296 and 297 ) . Did not conclude for any statistically significant contribution (positive or negative) of the independent variables age, sex and nature of admission to the dependent variable (duration of hospitalization / year). In relation to the dependent variable (number of admissions / year) relative to patients outside the area of influence of HMLemos, it was found a statistically significant positive contribution of the independent variable age . Conclusions: Through the exploratory analysis, it was possible to see the efforts made by hospitals to improve the accessibility of patients to Mental Health, throughout the hospital network reorganization. Its important to highlight the need to find alternatives to inpatient admissions in those with less gravity diagnostic criteria, reinforcing the importance of creating specific crisis consultations in Day Hospital regime.

Clinical and epidemiological characterization of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases in northeastern, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The dengue hemorrhagic dengue (DHF) remains an important public health problem in Brazil. The objective of this study was to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of DHF cases during the 2003 epidemic in Ceará. METHODS: Suspected DHF cases with onset of symptoms between January and December 2003 were investigated. RESULTS: 37,964 classic dengue cases and 291 DHF cases were reported. Among the cases discarded, 75.5% were serologically positive but did not meet the criteria recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The DHF patients' median age was 30 years (2 - 88). Among the hemorrhagic manifestations, petechiae were the most (32.6%) frequent. Cases of gastrointestinal bleeding, ascites, pericardial pleural effusion, hepatomegaly, hypotension and shock showed higher risk of progression to death (p <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of a new serotype (DENV-3) in Ceará, which encountered a susceptible population and high vector density, may have been the primary agent responsible for the magnitude of the epidemic. Timely and appropriate medical care, along with an organized care structure are essential for reducing its lethality.

Epidemiological profile of acute bacterial meningitis in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Acute bacterial meningitis (ABM) remains a public health problem in Brazil. To evaluate the epidemiology of ABM cases at Giselda Trigueiro Hospital, Rio Grande do Norte, a descriptive retrospective survey was conducted covering 2005 to 2008. METHODS: Clinical and laboratory data were collected from the epidemiology department of the hospital and analyzed. RESULTS: Out of 168 ABM cases, 24.4%, 10.7%, and 2.4% were, respectively, caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis and Haemophilus influenza b, and 5.4% by other bacteria. The mean age was 22.48 ± 18.7 years old. CONCLUSIONS: Streptococcus pneumoniae was the main causative pathogen in the young urban population.

Sporothrix schenckii associated with armadillo hunting in Southern Brazil: epidemiological and antifungal susceptibility profiles

INTRODUCTION: Sporotrichosis is the most common subcutaneous mycosis observed in Brazil and it is generally consequent to a little trauma caused by vegetal particles or spines which inoculate the fungi in the subcutaneous area. Although sporotrichosis had been frequently mentioned with armadillo hunting this form has not been widely reported in Brazil until now. In this study we report ten cases of sporotrichosis evolving the armadillo's hunting diagnosed in some towns located in the central and west regions of Rio Grande do Sul State. METHODS: The cases were established based on clinical and classic mycological laboratorial techniques. The susceptibility tests were conducted by microdilution technique according to M38-A2 CLSI documents. RESULTS: Ten cases of sporotrichosis associated with armadillo hunting detected in the State of Rio Grande do Sul were diagnosed by mycological methods. The susceptibility tests of Sporothrix schenckii isolates to antifungal agents itraconazole, ketoconazole and terbinafine showed that all the isolates were susceptible. CONCLUSIONS: The paper discusses some cultural aspects related to hunting of this wild animal as well as possible causes of this unexpected occurrence in southern Brazil.

Pulmonary paracoccidoidomycosis: radiology and clinical-epidemiological evaluation

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to compare respiratory signs and symptoms between patients with and without chest X-ray abnormalities in order to establish the meaning of radiographic findings in pulmonary PCM diagnosis. METHODS: The epidemiological, clinical and radiological lung findings of 44 patients with paracoccidiodomycosis (PCM) were evaluated. Patients were divided into two groups of 23 and 21 individuals according to the presence (group 1) or absence (group 2) of chest X-ray abnormalities, respectively, and their clinical data was analyzed with the aid of statistical tools. RESULTS: As a general rule, patients were rural workers, young adult males and smokers - group 1 and 2, respectively: males (91.3% and 66.7%); mean age (44.4 and 27.9 year-old); smoking (34.7% and 71.4 %); acute/subacute presentation (38.1% and 21.7%); chronic presentation (61.9% and 78.3%). The most frequent respiratory manifestations were - group 1 and 2, respectively: cough (25% and 11.4%) and dyspnea (22.7% and 6.8%). No statistical difference was observed in pulmonary signs and symptoms between patients with or without radiographic abnormalities. The most frequent radiological finding was nodular (23.8%) or nodular-fibrous (19%), bilateral (90.5%) and diffuse infiltrates (85.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Absence of statistical difference in pulmonary signs and symptoms between these two groups of patients with PCM indicates clinical-radiological dissociation. A simplified classification of radiological lung PCM findings is suggested, based on correlation of these data and current literature review.

Accidents caused by Bothrops and Bothropoides in the State of Paraiba: epidemiological and clinical aspects

INTRODUCTION: Bothrops and Bothropoides snakes cause 70% of the ophidic accidents in Brazil. The species that cause ophidic accidents in State of Paraíba are Bothropoides erythromelas, Bothrops leucurus and Bothropoides neuwiedi. METHODS: This is a prospective and transverse study, following a quantitative approach of accidents involving Bothrops and Bothropoides admitted to the Toxicological Assistance and Information Centers of Campina Grande and João Pessoa (Ceatox-CG and Ceatox-JP), aimed at identifying the epidemiological and clinical profile of such accidents. All of the patients admitted had medical diagnoses and were monitored at Ceatox-CG or Ceatox-JP. RESULTS: The genera Bothrops and Bothropoides caused 91.7% of the ophidic accidents reported. Snake bites were frequent in men (75.1%), rural workers (65.1%), literate individuals (69%) between 11 and 20 years-old (21.7%), and toes the most common area attacked (52.7%). Most (86.6%) patients were admitted within 6 hours after the accident/bite, with a predominance of mild cases (64.6%). The annual occurrence in Paraíba was 5.5 accidents/100,000 inhabitants and lethality was 0.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Positive changes in the profiles of these accidents were verified, such as the non-application of inadequate solutions, including the use of tourniquet, coffee grounds, garlic, suction and/or cutting the bitten area. Moreover, the Itinerant Laboratory project, linked to Paraíba State University in partnership with Ceatox-CG, has contributed positively, providing several cities of the state with information regarding the prevention of accidents involving venomous animals. The local press has also contributed, reporting the educational work developed by the centers.

Clinical, demographic and epidemiological characteristics of patients with hepatitis B followed at a university hospital in southeastern Brazil: predominance of HBeAg negative cases

INTRODUCTION: Hepatitis B is common in Brazil, although there are regional differences regarding the degree of endemicity, the most frequent forms of transmission and the presence of different evolutive stages of chronic disease. The present study aimed to determine the clinical, demographic and epidemiological characteristics of patients chronically infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV) residing in the Ribeirão Preto region, southeastern Brazil. METHODS: A total of 529 medical records of individuals with HBV monoinfection were reviewed. RESULTS: More than 60% of the subjects were males, with a mean age of 38 years-old. The HBeAg-negative serological pattern was verified in 84.4% of the patients, among whom the risk of vertical/intrafamily transmission was 43.2% (p = 0.02). The consumption of alcohol in amounts exceeding 20g a day was observed in 21.3% of the subjects and was more frequent among men (33%) (p < 0.001). Among patients with cirrhosis, 54.1% were alcohol abusers (p = 0.04), all of them males. The presence of cirrhosis was more frequent in the HBeAg-positive group (24.4%) than in the HBeAg-negative group (10.2%) (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: High proportions of HBV-infected subjects with an HBeAg-negative pattern were observed, with a higher risk of vertical/intrafamily transmission. Alcohol abuse was associated with male subjects and with cirrhosis of the liver in this group. A tendency toward an increase in the number of HBeAg-negative cases was observed over time.

Clinical and epidemiological profile of blood donors with positive serology for viral hepatitis in southern Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Positive serological tests for hepatitis viruses B and C at blood banks are an important reason for blood deferral. Additionally, high residual risk for transfusing hepatitis-contaminated blood has been estimated in southern Brazil. This study aimed to identify risk factors for positive serological tests for viral hepatitis (VH) in blood donors (BD). METHODS: A case-control study included consecutive BD with positive serology for VH, between 2008 and 2009. Cases and controls (BD with negative serology for VH) were paired 1:1 by sex and donation date. Assessment of clinical and epidemiological characteristics related to viral hepatitis was conducted. RESULTS: Among 1,282 blood donors (641 cases and 641 controls), those with positive serology for viral hepatitis had higher mean age (p<0.001); higher proportion of replacement donation (p<0.001); first donation (p<0.001); and interviewer deferment (p=0.037), compared to controls. Furthermore, donors with positive tests were less regular donors (p<0.001), had less previous history of rejection (p=0.003) and showed lower hematocrit median before donation (p=0.019). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that age (OR=1.056, 95%CI 1.042-1.069, p<0.001), replacement donation (OR=1.545, 95%CI 1.171-2.038, p=0.002) and first donation (OR=9.931, 95%CI 7.486-13.173, p<0.001) were independently associated with positivity of serological tests for viral hepatitis. CONCLUSIONS: Specific characteristics of blood donors were associated with positive serology for viral hepatitis. These peculiarities should be taken into account when assessing candidates for blood donation.

Métodos estatísticos aplicados à modelação de dados oncológicos

RESUMO: A estrutura demográfica portuguesa é marcada por baixas taxas de natalidade e mortalidade, onde a população idosa representa uma fatia cada vez mais representativa, fruto de uma maior longevidade. A incidência do cancro, na sua generalidade, é maior precisamente nessa classe etária. A par de outras doenças igualmente lesivas (e.g. cardiovasculares, degenerativas) cuja incidência aumenta com a idade, o cancro merece relevo. Estudos epidemiológicos apresentam o cancro como líder mundial na mortalidade. Em países desenvolvidos, o seu peso representa 25% do número total de óbitos, percentagem essa que mais que duplica noutros países. A obesidade, a baixa ingestão de frutas e vegetais, o sedentarismo, o consumo de tabaco e a ingestão de álcool, configuram-se como cinco dos fatores de risco presentes em 30% das mortes diagnosticadas por cancro. A nível mundial e, em particular no Sul de Portugal, os cancros do estômago, recto e cólon apresentam elevadas taxas de incidência e de mortalidade. Do ponto de vista estritamente económico, o cancro é a doença que mais recursos consome enquanto que do ponto de vista físico e psicológico é uma doença que não limita o seu raio de ação ao doente. O cancro é, portanto, uma doença sempre atual e cada vez mais presente, pois reflete os hábitos e o ambiente de uma sociedade, não obstante as características intrínsecas a cada indivíduo. A adoção de metodologia estatística aplicada à modelação de dados oncológicos é, sobretudo, valiosa e pertinente quando a informação é oriunda de Registos de Cancro de Base Populacional (RCBP). A pertinência é justificada pelo fato destes registos permitirem aferir numa população específica, o risco desta sofrer e/ou vir a sofrer de uma dada neoplasia. O peso que as neoplasias do estômago, cólon e recto assumem foi um dos elementos que motivou o presente estudo que tem por objetivo analisar tendências, projeções, sobrevivências relativas e a distribuição espacial destas neoplasias. Foram considerados neste estudo todos os casos diagnosticados no período 1998-2006, pelo RCBP da região sul de Portugal (ROR-Sul). O estudo descritivo inicial das taxas de incidência e da tendência em cada uma das referidas neoplasias teve como base uma única variável temporal - o ano de diagnóstico - também designada por período. Todavia, uma metodologia que contemple apenas uma única variável temporal é limitativa. No cancro, para além do período, a idade à data do diagnóstico e a coorte de nascimento, são variáveis temporais que poderão prestar um contributo adicional na caracterização das taxas de incidência. A relevância assumida por estas variáveis temporais justificou a sua inclusão numaclasse de modelos designada por modelos Idade-Período-Coorte (Age-Period-Cohort models - APC), utilizada na modelação das taxas de incidência para as neoplasias em estudo. Os referidos modelos permitem ultrapassar o problema de relações não lineares e/ou de mudanças súbitas na tendência linear das taxas. Nos modelos APC foram consideradas a abordagem clássica e a abordagem com recurso a funções suavizadoras. A modelação das taxas foi estratificada por sexo. Foram ainda estudados os respectivos submodelos (apenas com uma ou duas variáveis temporais). Conhecido o comportamento das taxas de incidência, uma questão subsequente prende-se com a sua projeção em períodos futuros. Porém, o efeito de mudanças estruturais na população, ao qual Portugal não é alheio, altera substancialmente o número esperado de casos futuros com cancro. Estimativas da incidência de cancro a nível mundial obtidas a partir de projeções demográficas apontam para um aumento de 25% dos casos de cancro nas próximas duas décadas. Embora a projeção da incidência esteja associada a alguma incerteza, as projeções auxiliam no planeamento de políticas de saúde para a afetação de recursos e permitem a avaliação de cenários e de intervenções que tenham como objetivo a redução do impacto do cancro. O desconhecimento de projeções da taxa de incidência destas neoplasias na área abrangida pelo ROR-Sul, levou à utilização de modelos de projeção que diferem entre si quanto à sua estrutura, linearidade (ou não) dos seus coeficientes e comportamento das taxas na série histórica de dados (e.g. crescente, decrescente ou estável). Os referidos modelos pautaram-se por duas abordagens: (i)modelos lineares no que concerne ao tempo e (ii) extrapolação de efeitos temporais identificados pelos modelos APC para períodos futuros. Foi feita a projeção das taxas de incidência para os anos de 2007 a 2010 tendo em conta o género, idade e neoplasia. É ainda apresentada uma estimativa do impacto económico destas neoplasias no período de projeção. Uma questão pertinente e habitual no contexto clínico e a que o presente estudo pretende dar resposta, reside em saber qual a contribuição da neoplasia em si para a sobrevivência do doente. Nesse sentido, a mortalidade por causa específica é habitualmente utilizada para estimar a mortalidade atribuível apenas ao cancro em estudo. Porém, existem muitas situações em que a causa de morte é desconhecida e, mesmo que esta informação esteja disponível através dos certificados de óbito, não é fácil distinguir os casos em que a principal causa de morte é devida ao cancro. A sobrevivência relativa surge como uma medida objetiva que não necessita do conhecimento da causa específica da morte para o seu cálculo e dar-nos-á uma estimativa da probabilidade de sobrevivência caso o cancro em análise, num cenário hipotético, seja a única causa de morte. Desconhecida a principal causa de morte nos casos diagnosticados com cancro no registo ROR-Sul, foi determinada a sobrevivência relativa para cada uma das neoplasias em estudo, para um período de follow-up de 5 anos, tendo em conta o sexo, a idade e cada uma das regiões que constituem o registo. Foi adotada uma análise por período e as abordagens convencional e por modelos. No epílogo deste estudo, é analisada a influência da variabilidade espaço-temporal nas taxas de incidência. O longo período de latência das doenças oncológicas, a dificuldade em identificar mudanças súbitas no comportamento das taxas, populações com dimensão e riscos reduzidos, são alguns dos elementos que dificultam a análise da variação temporal das taxas. Nalguns casos, estas variações podem ser reflexo de flutuações aleatórias. O efeito da componente temporal aferida pelos modelos APC dá-nos um retrato incompleto da incidência do cancro. A etiologia desta doença, quando conhecida, está associada com alguma frequência a fatores de risco tais como condições socioeconómicas, hábitos alimentares e estilo de vida, atividade profissional, localização geográfica e componente genética. O “contributo”, dos fatores de risco é, por vezes, determinante e não deve ser ignorado. Surge, assim, a necessidade em complementar o estudo temporal das taxas com uma abordagem de cariz espacial. Assim, procurar-se-á aferir se as variações nas taxas de incidência observadas entre os concelhos inseridos na área do registo ROR-Sul poderiam ser explicadas quer pela variabilidade temporal e geográfica quer por fatores socioeconómicos ou, ainda, pelos desiguais estilos de vida. Foram utilizados os Modelos Bayesianos Hierárquicos Espaço-Temporais com o objetivo de identificar tendências espaço-temporais nas taxas de incidência bem como quantificar alguns fatores de risco ajustados à influência simultânea da região e do tempo. Os resultados obtidos pela implementação de todas estas metodologias considera-se ser uma mais valia para o conhecimento destas neoplasias em Portugal.------------ABSTRACT: mortality rates, with the elderly being an increasingly representative sector of the population, mainly due to greater longevity. The incidence of cancer, in general, is greater precisely in that age group. Alongside with other equally damaging diseases (e.g. cardiovascular,degenerative), whose incidence rates increases with age, cancer is of special note. In epidemiological studies, cancer is the global leader in mortality. In developed countries its weight represents 25% of the total number of deaths, with this percentage being doubled in other countries. Obesity, a reduce consumption of fruit and vegetables, physical inactivity, smoking and alcohol consumption, are the five risk factors present in 30% of deaths due to cancer. Globally, and in particular in the South of Portugal, the stomach, rectum and colon cancer have high incidence and mortality rates. From a strictly economic perspective, cancer is the disease that consumes more resources, while from a physical and psychological point of view, it is a disease that is not limited to the patient. Cancer is therefore na up to date disease and one of increased importance, since it reflects the habits and the environment of a society, regardless the intrinsic characteristics of each individual. The adoption of statistical methodology applied to cancer data modelling is especially valuable and relevant when the information comes from population-based cancer registries (PBCR). In such cases, these registries allow for the assessment of the risk and the suffering associated to a given neoplasm in a specific population. The weight that stomach, colon and rectum cancers assume in Portugal was one of the motivations of the present study, that focus on analyzing trends, projections, relative survival and spatial distribution of these neoplasms. The data considered in this study, are all cases diagnosed between 1998 and 2006, by the PBCR of Portugal, ROR-Sul.Only year of diagnosis, also called period, was the only time variable considered in the initial descriptive analysis of the incidence rates and trends for each of the three neoplasms considered. However, a methodology that only considers one single time variable will probably fall short on the conclusions that could be drawn from the data under study. In cancer, apart from the variable period, the age at diagnosis and the birth cohort are also temporal variables and may provide an additional contribution to the characterization of the incidence. The relevance assumed by these temporal variables justified its inclusion in a class of models called Age-Period-Cohort models (APC). This class of models was used for the analysis of the incidence rates of the three cancers under study. APC models allow to model nonlinearity and/or sudden changes in linear relationships of rate trends. Two approaches of APC models were considered: the classical and the one using smoothing functions. The models were stratified by gender and, when justified, further studies explored other sub-models where only one or two temporal variables were considered. After the analysis of the incidence rates, a subsequent goal is related to their projections in future periods. Although the effect of structural changes in the population, of which Portugal is not oblivious, may substantially change the expected number of future cancer cases, the results of these projections could help planning health policies with the proper allocation of resources, allowing for the evaluation of scenarios and interventions that aim to reduce the impact of cancer in a population. Worth noting that cancer incidence worldwide obtained from demographic projections point out to an increase of 25% of cancer cases in the next two decades. The lack of projections of incidence rates of the three cancers under study in the area covered by ROR-Sul, led us to use a variety of forecasting models that differ in the nature and structure. For example, linearity or nonlinearity in their coefficients and the trend of the incidence rates in historical data series (e.g. increasing, decreasing or stable).The models followed two approaches: (i) linear models regarding time and (ii) extrapolation of temporal effects identified by the APC models for future periods. The study provide incidence rates projections and the numbers of newly diagnosed cases for the year, 2007 to 2010, taking into account gender, age and the type of cancer. In addition, an estimate of the economic impact of these neoplasms is presented for the projection period considered. This research also try to address a relevant and common clinical question in these type of studies, regarding the contribution of the type of cancer to the patient survival. In such studies, the primary cause of death is commonly used to estimate the mortality specifically due to the cancer. However, there are many situations in which the cause of death is unknown, or, even if this information is available through the death certificates, it is not easy to distinguish the cases where the primary cause of death is the cancer. With this in mind, the relative survival is an alternative measure that does not need the knowledge of the specific cause of death to be calculated. This estimate will represent the survival probability in the hypothetical scenario of a certain cancer be the only cause of death. For the patients with unknown cause of death that were diagnosed with cancer in the ROR-Sul, the relative survival was calculated for each of the cancers under study, for a follow-up period of 5 years, considering gender, age and each one of the regions that are part the registry. A period analysis was undertaken, considering both the conventional and the model approaches. In final part of this study, we analyzed the influence of space-time variability in the incidence rates. The long latency period of oncologic diseases, the difficulty in identifying subtle changes in the rates behavior, populations of reduced size and low risk are some of the elements that can be a challenge in the analysis of temporal variations in rates, that, in some cases, can reflect simple random fluctuations. The effect of the temporal component measured by the APC models gives an incomplete picture of the cancer incidence. The etiology of this disease, when known, is frequently associated to risk factors such as socioeconomic conditions, eating habits and lifestyle, occupation, geographic location and genetic component. The "contribution"of such risk factors is sometimes decisive in the evolution of the disease and should not be ignored. Therefore, there was the need to consider an additional approach in this study, one of spatial nature, addressing the fact that changes in incidence rates observed in the ROR-Sul area, could be explained either by temporal and geographical variability or by unequal socio-economic or lifestyle factors. Thus, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models were used with the purpose of identifying space-time trends in incidence rates together with the the analysis of the effect of the risk factors considered in the study. The results obtained and the implementation of all these methodologies are considered to be an added value to the knowledge of these neoplasms in Portugal.