The winds of change? Exploring political effects of Hurricane Andrew

Before dawn on August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew smashed into south Florida, particularly southern Dade County, and soon become the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. Andrew's impacts quickly overwhelmed local and state emergency response capabilities and eventually required major federal assistance, including regular military units. While the social and economic impacts of Hurricane Andrew are relatively well researched, much less attention has been given to its possible political effects. ^ Focusing on incumbent officeholders at three levels (municipal, state legislative, and statewide) who stood for reelection after Hurricane Andrew, this study seeks to determine whether they experienced any political effects from Andrew. That is, this study explores the possible interaction between the famous “incumbency advantage” and an “extreme event,” in this case a natural disaster. The specific foci were (1) campaigns and campaigning (a research process that included 43 personal interviews), and (2) election results before and after the event. ^ Given well-documented response problems, the working hypothesis was that incumbents experienced largely negative political fallout from the disaster. The null hypothesis was that incumbents saw no net political effects, but the reverse hypothesis was also considered: incumbents benefited politically from the event. ^ In the end, this study found that although the election process was physically disrupted, especially in south Dade County, the disaster largely reinforced the incumbency advantage. More specifically, the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew allowed most incumbent officeholders to (1) enhance constituency service, (2) associate themselves with the flow of external assistance, (3) achieve major personal visibility and media coverage, and yet (4) appear non-political or at least above normal politics. Overall, this combination allowed incumbents to very effectively “campaign without campaigning,” a point borne out by post-Andrew election results. ^

Development of Gene Expression Markers of Acute Heat-Light Stress in Reef-Building Corals of the Genus Porites

Coral reefs are declining worldwide due to increased incidence of climate-induced coral bleaching, which will have widespread biodiversity and economic impacts. A simple method to measure the sub-bleaching level of heat-light stress experienced by corals would greatly inform reef management practices by making it possible to assess the distribution of bleaching risks among individual reef sites. Gene expression analysis based on quantitative PCR (qPCR) can be used as a diagnostic tool to determine coral condition in situ. We evaluated the expression of 13 candidate genes during heat-light stress in a common Caribbean coral Porites astreoides, and observed strong and consistent changes in gene expression in two independent experiments. Furthermore, we found that the apparent return to baseline expression levels during a recovery phase was rapid, despite visible signs of colony bleaching. We show that the response to acute heat-light stress in P. astreoides can be monitored by measuring the difference in expression of only two genes: Hsp16 and actin. We demonstrate that this assay discriminates between corals sampled from two field sites experiencing different temperatures. We also show that the assay is applicable to an Indo-Pacific congener, P. lobata, and therefore could potentially be used to diagnose acute heat-light stress on coral reefs worldwide.

The status of Ireland's climate, 2012

Ireland’s climate is changing. This is consistent with regional and global trends which display rapid changes in many aspects of climate over the last century and the first decade of this century. The availability of high-quality climate observations is a critical starting point from which an understanding of past and emerging trends in the current climate can be developed. Such observations are vital for detecting change and providing the information needed to help manage and plan for the future in a wide range of socio-economic sectors. Observations are also essential to help build robust projections of future climate, which can in turn inform policy formulation for appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures. Such measures should help us limit the negative socio-economic impacts and position us to take advantages of opportunities offered by a changing climate. This report brings together observational information and data for over 40 climate variables and highlights changes and trends in aspects of Irish climate across the atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial domains. The observations presented in this report contribute to the formulation of the Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) as defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS).

Fearonomics and the Role of Nigeria's Private Sector in the Nigerian Ebola Response

Background: Outbreaks of infectious diseases such as Ebola have dramatic economic impacts on affected nations due to significant direct costs and indirect costs, as well as increased expenditure by the government to meet the health and security crisis. Despite its dense population, Nigeria was able to contain the outbreak swiftly and was declared Ebola free on 13th October 2014. Although Nigeria’s Ebola containment success was multifaceted, the private sector played a key role in Nigeria’s fight against Ebola. An epidemic of a disease like Ebola, not only consumes health resources but also detrimentally disrupts trade and travel to impact both public and private sector resulting in the ‘fearonomic’ effect of the contagion. In this thesis, I have defined ‘fearonomics’ or the ‘fearonomic effects’ of a disease as the intangible and intangible economic effects of both informed and misinformed aversion behavior exhibited by individuals, organizations, or countries during an outbreak. During an infectious disease outbreak, there is a significant potential for public-private sector collaborations that can help offset some of the government’s cost of controlling the epidemic.

Objective: The main objective of this study is to understand the ‘fearonomics’ of Ebola in Nigeria and to evaluate the role of the key private sector stakeholders in Nigeria’s Ebola response.

Methods: This retrospective qualitative study was conducted in Nigeria and utilizes grounded theory to look across different economic sectors in Nigeria to understand the impact of Ebola on Nigeria’s private sector and how it dealt with the various challenges posed by the disease and its ‘fearonomic effects'.

Results: Due to swift containment of Ebola in Nigeria, the economic impact of the disease was limited especially in comparison to the other Ebola-infected countries such as Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. However, the 2014 Ebola outbreak had more than a just direct impact on the country’s economy and despite the swift containment, no economic sector was immune to the disease’s fearonomic impact. The potential scale of the fearonomic impact of a disease like Ebola was one of the key motivators for the private sector engagement in the Ebola response.

The private sector in Nigeria played an essential role in facilitating the country’s response to Ebola. The private sector not only provided in-cash donations but significant in-kind support to both the Federal and State governments during the outbreak. Swift establishment of an Ebola Emergency Operation Centre (EEOC) was essential to the country’s response and was greatly facilitated by the private sector, showcasing the crucial role of private sector in the initial phase of an outbreak. The private sector contributed to Nigeria’s fight against Ebola not only by donating material assets but by continuing operations and partaking in knowledge sharing and advocacy. Some sector such as the private health sector, telecom sector, financial sector, oil and gas sector played a unique role in orchestrating the Nigerian Ebola response and were among the first movers during the outbreak.

This paper utilizes the lessons from Nigeria’s containment of Ebola to highlight the potential of public-private partnerships in preparedness, response, and recovery during an outbreak.

Identification des grands utilisateurs de soins de santé chez les patients souffrant de la douleur chronique non cancéreuse et suivis en soins de première ligne

Contexte: La douleur chronique non cancéreuse (DCNC) génère des retombées économiques et sociétales importantes. L’identification des patients à risque élevé d’être de grands utilisateurs de soins de santé pourrait être d’une grande utilité; en améliorant leur prise en charge, il serait éventuellement possible de réduire leurs coûts de soins de santé. Objectif: Identifier les facteurs prédictifs bio-psycho-sociaux des grands utilisateurs de soins de santé chez les patients souffrant de DCNC et suivis en soins de première ligne. Méthodologie: Des patients souffrant d’une DCNC modérée à sévère depuis au moins six mois et bénéficiant une ordonnance valide d’un analgésique par un médecin de famille ont été recrutés dans des pharmacies communautaires du territoire du Réseau universitaire intégré de santé (RUIS), de l’Université de Montréal entre Mai 2009 et Janvier 2010. Ce dernier est composé des six régions suivantes : Mauricie et centre du Québec, Laval, Montréal, Laurentides, Lanaudière et Montérégie. Les caractéristiques bio-psycho-sociales des participants ont été documentées à l’aide d’un questionnaire écrit et d’une entrevue téléphonique au moment du recrutement. Les coûts directs de santé ont été estimés à partir des soins et des services de santé reçus au cours de l’année précédant et suivant le recrutement et identifiés à partir de la base de données de la Régie d’Assurance maladie du Québec, RAMQ (assureur publique de la province du Québec). Ces coûts incluaient ceux des hospitalisations reliées à la douleur, des visites à l’urgence, des soins ambulatoires et de la médication prescrite pour le traitement de la douleur et la gestion des effets secondaires des analgésiques. Les grands utilisateurs des soins de santé ont été définis comme étant ceux faisant partie du quartile le plus élevé de coûts directs annuels en soins de santé dans l’année suivant le recrutement. Des modèles de régression logistique multivariés et le critère d’information d’Akaike ont permis d’identifier les facteurs prédictifs des coûts directs élevés en soins de santé. Résultats: Le coût direct annuel médian en soins de santé chez les grands utilisateurs de soins de santé (63 patients) était de 7 627 CAD et de 1 554 CAD pour les utilisateurs réguliers (188 patients). Le modèle prédictif final du risque d’être un grand utilisateur de soins de santé incluait la douleur localisée au niveau des membres inférieurs (OR = 3,03; 95% CI: 1,20 - 7,65), la réduction de la capacité fonctionnelle liée à la douleur (OR = 1,24; 95% CI: 1,03 - 1,48) et les coûts directs en soins de santé dans l’année précédente (OR = 17,67; 95% CI: 7,90 - 39,48). Les variables «sexe», «comorbidité», «dépression» et «attitude envers la guérison médicale» étaient également retenues dans le modèle prédictif final. Conclusion: Les patients souffrant d’une DCNC au niveau des membres inférieurs et présentant une détérioration de la capacité fonctionnelle liée à la douleur comptent parmi ceux les plus susceptibles d’être de grands utilisateurs de soins et de services. Le coût direct en soins de santé dans l’année précédente était également un facteur prédictif important. Améliorer la prise en charge chez cette catégorie de patients pourrait influencer favorablement leur état de santé et par conséquent les coûts assumés par le système de santé.

A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been observed around the world and are expected to increase in intensity and frequency under anthropogenic climate change. A variety of impacts have been associated with these anomalous events, including shifts in species ranges, local extinctions and economic impacts on seafood industries through declines in important fishery species and impacts on aquaculture. Extreme temperatures are increasingly seen as important influences on biological systems, yet a consistent definition of MHWs does not exist. A clear definition will facilitate retrospective comparisons between MHWs, enabling the synthesis and a mechanistic understanding of the role of MHWs in marine ecosystems. Building on research into atmospheric heatwaves, we propose both a general and specific definition for MHWs, based on a hierarchy of metrics that allow for different data sets to be used in identifying MHWs. We generally define a MHW as a prolonged discrete anomalously warm water event that can be described by its duration, intensity, rate of evolution, and spatial extent. Specifically, we consider an anomalously warm event to be a MHW if it lasts for five or more days, with temperatures warmer than the 90th percentile based on a 30-year historical baseline period. This structure provides flexibility with regard to the description of MHWs and transparency in communicating MHWs to a general audience. The use of these metrics is illustrated for three 21st century MHWs; the northern Mediterranean event in 2003, the Western Australia ‘Ningaloo Niño’ in 2011, and the northwest Atlantic event in 2012. We recommend a specific quantitative definition for MHWs to facilitate global comparisons and to advance our understanding of these phenomena.

A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been observed around the world and are expected to increase in intensity and frequency under anthropogenic climate change. A variety of impacts have been associated with these anomalous events, including shifts in species ranges, local extinctions and economic impacts on seafood industries through declines in important fishery species and impacts on aquaculture. Extreme temperatures are increasingly seen as important influences on biological systems, yet a consistent definition of MHWs does not exist. A clear definition will facilitate retrospective comparisons between MHWs, enabling the synthesis and a mechanistic understanding of the role of MHWs in marine ecosystems. Building on research into atmospheric heatwaves, we propose both a general and specific definition for MHWs, based on a hierarchy of metrics that allow for different data sets to be used in identifying MHWs. We generally define a MHW as a prolonged discrete anomalously warm water event that can be described by its duration, intensity, rate of evolution, and spatial extent. Specifically, we consider an anomalously warm event to be a MHW if it lasts for five or more days, with temperatures warmer than the 90th percentile based on a 30-year historical baseline period. This structure provides flexibility with regard to the description of MHWs and transparency in communicating MHWs to a general audience. The use of these metrics is illustrated for three 21st century MHWs; the northern Mediterranean event in 2003, the Western Australia ‘Ningaloo Niño’ in 2011, and the northwest Atlantic event in 2012. We recommend a specific quantitative definition for MHWs to facilitate global comparisons and to advance our understanding of these phenomena.

Impactos sociales y económicos de la hidroeléctrica en Ituango

La hidroeléctrica Ituango es el proyecto de generación de energía más grande de Colombia y que tiene una importancia enorme para los pueblos que están ubicados en el área de influencia de esta obra. Ituango es un municipio ubicado en el norte lejano del departamento de Antioquia, que posee unas características especiales y que ha cambiado considerablemente su forma de vivir por la llegada del proyecto hidroeléctrico, considerando la magnitud de la obra, la llegada de más personas a la zona y el cambio socioeconómico que surge a raíz de esta situación.

Impact of dead and sunken water hyacinth on biotic communities, the aquatic environment and socioeconomic activities

The mobile water hyacinth, which was produced in growth zones, especially Murchison bay, was mainly exported to three sheltered storage bays (Thruston, Hannington and Waiya). Between 1996 and May 1998, the mobile form of water hyacinth occupied about 800 ha in Thruston bay, 750 ha in Hannington bay and 140 ha in Waiya bay). Biological control weevils and other factors, including localised nutrient depletion, weakened the weed that was confined to the bays and it sunk around October 1998. The settling to the bottom of such huge quantities of organic matter its subsequent decomposition and the debris from this mass was likely to have environmental impacts on biotic communities (e.g. fish and invertebrate), physico-chemical conditions (water quality), and on socio-economic activities (e.g. at fish landings, water abstraction, and hydro-power generation points). Sunken water hyacinth debris could also affect nutrient levels in the water column and lead to reduction in the content of dissolved oxygen. The changes in nutrient dynamics and oxygen levels could affect algal productivity, invertebrate composition and fish communities. Socio-economic impacts of dead sunken weed were expected from debris deposited along the shoreline especially at fish landings, water abstraction and hydropower generation points. Therefore, environmental impact assessment studies were carried out between 1998 and 2002 in selected representative zones of Lake Victoria to identify the effects of the sunken water hyacinth biomass.

How can science contribute for the sustainable management of natural resource? : Praia da Vitória Bay and Guadiana Estuary, a comparative study

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Ambiente (Ordenamento do Território), 5 de Abril de 2013, Universidade dos Açores.

Identification des grands utilisateurs de soins de santé chez les patients souffrant de la douleur chronique non cancéreuse et suivis en soins de première ligne

Contexte: La douleur chronique non cancéreuse (DCNC) génère des retombées économiques et sociétales importantes. L’identification des patients à risque élevé d’être de grands utilisateurs de soins de santé pourrait être d’une grande utilité; en améliorant leur prise en charge, il serait éventuellement possible de réduire leurs coûts de soins de santé. Objectif: Identifier les facteurs prédictifs bio-psycho-sociaux des grands utilisateurs de soins de santé chez les patients souffrant de DCNC et suivis en soins de première ligne. Méthodologie: Des patients souffrant d’une DCNC modérée à sévère depuis au moins six mois et bénéficiant une ordonnance valide d’un analgésique par un médecin de famille ont été recrutés dans des pharmacies communautaires du territoire du Réseau universitaire intégré de santé (RUIS), de l’Université de Montréal entre Mai 2009 et Janvier 2010. Ce dernier est composé des six régions suivantes : Mauricie et centre du Québec, Laval, Montréal, Laurentides, Lanaudière et Montérégie. Les caractéristiques bio-psycho-sociales des participants ont été documentées à l’aide d’un questionnaire écrit et d’une entrevue téléphonique au moment du recrutement. Les coûts directs de santé ont été estimés à partir des soins et des services de santé reçus au cours de l’année précédant et suivant le recrutement et identifiés à partir de la base de données de la Régie d’Assurance maladie du Québec, RAMQ (assureur publique de la province du Québec). Ces coûts incluaient ceux des hospitalisations reliées à la douleur, des visites à l’urgence, des soins ambulatoires et de la médication prescrite pour le traitement de la douleur et la gestion des effets secondaires des analgésiques. Les grands utilisateurs des soins de santé ont été définis comme étant ceux faisant partie du quartile le plus élevé de coûts directs annuels en soins de santé dans l’année suivant le recrutement. Des modèles de régression logistique multivariés et le critère d’information d’Akaike ont permis d’identifier les facteurs prédictifs des coûts directs élevés en soins de santé. Résultats: Le coût direct annuel médian en soins de santé chez les grands utilisateurs de soins de santé (63 patients) était de 7 627 CAD et de 1 554 CAD pour les utilisateurs réguliers (188 patients). Le modèle prédictif final du risque d’être un grand utilisateur de soins de santé incluait la douleur localisée au niveau des membres inférieurs (OR = 3,03; 95% CI: 1,20 - 7,65), la réduction de la capacité fonctionnelle liée à la douleur (OR = 1,24; 95% CI: 1,03 - 1,48) et les coûts directs en soins de santé dans l’année précédente (OR = 17,67; 95% CI: 7,90 - 39,48). Les variables «sexe», «comorbidité», «dépression» et «attitude envers la guérison médicale» étaient également retenues dans le modèle prédictif final. Conclusion: Les patients souffrant d’une DCNC au niveau des membres inférieurs et présentant une détérioration de la capacité fonctionnelle liée à la douleur comptent parmi ceux les plus susceptibles d’être de grands utilisateurs de soins et de services. Le coût direct en soins de santé dans l’année précédente était également un facteur prédictif important. Améliorer la prise en charge chez cette catégorie de patients pourrait influencer favorablement leur état de santé et par conséquent les coûts assumés par le système de santé.

Patologías podales infecciosas y no infecciosas en vacas lecheras

Las cojeras son una de las mayores causas de problemas en el bienestar animal de las vacas lecheras, y tienen diferentes orígenes: infecciosas (dermatitis digital, flemón digital); o lesiones causadas por discontinuidad en el crecimiento del cuerno de las pezuñas (hemorragias, úlcera podal, enfermedad de la línea blanca). Los factores de riesgo que inducen estas afecciones son multifactoriales y no siempre son detectables, difieren según el establecimiento, así como su prevalencia / incidencia. La prevención y la detección precoz mantiene estas patología tengan un impacto menor sobre las economía en la producción lechera.

O desenvolvimento do turismo desportivo: o caso das provas da meia maratona e da maratona do Porto

O turismo tem sido e prevê-se que continuará a ser um dos fenómenos que mais contribui para a economia de uma nação. Também, o desporto ao longo dos anos tem tido um papel importante na sociedade que se manifesta em diferentes perspetivas, ao nível cultural, económico e social. Nesta linha e como catalisador de sinergias entre o turismo e o desporto surge o turismo desportivo, como sendo um único fenómeno social, económico e cultural que decorre da interação das atividades, pessoas e locais. O turismo desportivo, nos últimos anos, tem tido o seu reconhecimento como uma fonte que gera riqueza dando suporte ao desenvolvimento económico dos locais, regiões e até mesmo dos países onde se realizam os eventos desportivos. De salientar que o Turismo Desportivo tem sido visto como uma oportunidade que permite combater a sazonalidade e os impactos negativos do turismo em massa. Neste sentido, com o presente trabalho pretendeu-se analisar a importância das provas da meia maratona e maratona, realizadas na cidade do Porto em 2015, para o desenvolvimento turístico, na perspetiva dos visitantes desportistas, uma vez que os eventos desportivos têm sido considerados uma forma de assegurar o desenvolvimento sustentável de uma região/local. Tendo por base a informação recolhida e os resultados obtidos, quanto ao perfil dos inquiridos que participaram, em ambas as provas, pode dizer-se que são do sexo masculino, o grupo etário com idades compreendidas entre os 41 e 51 anos tem a maior percentagem de participantes, a maioria são casados e portugueses e maioritariamente residem no Grande Porto. Apurou-se ainda a estimativa do gasto médio por inscritos atendendo às provas e nacionalidade. No que diz respeito aos portugueses, estes fazem mais despesas no decurso da prova da Meia Maratona gastando cerca de 530 mil euros e os estrangeiros na prova da Maratona despendendo um valor estimado de 634 mil euros. Globalmente, atendendo às provas principais e associadas, são os portugueses que apresentam um gasto estimado mais elevado cerca de 1.755.570,65€, e os estrangeiros 1.436.159,14€. No global o valor estimado despendido, para o total das provas, para os participantes desportistas, ascende a 3.191.730€. Os valores apresentados não incluem as despesas com a inscrição dos participantes nas provas. Os valores indiciaram, também, para a existência de impactos económicos positivos decorrentes da organização e realização das provas e demonstraram que estas podem constituir uma ferramenta para impulsionar a economia local e regional. Também se concluiu que as provas da Meia Maratona e Maratona foram consideradas importantes para o desenvolvimento turístico da Região do Grande Porto, os inquiridos encontram-se globalmente satisfeitos com as provas e pretendem regressar em próximas edições, existe uma relação forte, positiva e direta entre a satisfação global e a intenção de participar em edições futuras das provas.

A proposed impact assessment method for genetically modified plants (AS-GMP Method).

An essential step in the development of products based on biotechnology is an assessment of their potential economic impacts and safety, including an evaluation of the potential impact of transgenic crops and practices related to their cultivation on the environment and human or animal health. The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment method to evaluate the impact of biotechnologies that uses quantifiable parameters and allows a comparative analysis between conventional technology and technologies using GMOs. This paper introduces amethod to performan impact analysis associatedwith the commercial release and use of genetically modified plants, the Assessment SystemGMPMethod. The assessment is performed through indicators that are arranged according to their dimension criterion likewise: environmental, economic, social, capability and institutional approach. To perform an accurate evaluation of the GMP specific indicators related to genetic modification are grouped in common fields: genetic insert features, GMplant features, gene flow, food/feed field, introduction of the GMP, unexpected occurrences and specific indicators. The novelty is the possibility to include specific parameters to the biotechnology under assessment. In this case by case analysis the factors ofmoderation and the indexes are parameterized to perform an available assessment.