Conditional distribution modeling for estimating and exploiting uncertainty in control systems

This paper presents a general methodology for estimating and incorporating uncertainty in the controller and forward models for noisy nonlinear control problems. Conditional distribution modeling in a neural network context is used to estimate uncertainty around the prediction of neural network outputs. The developed methodology circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localize the possible control solutions to consider. A nonlinear multivariable system with different delays between the input-output pairs is used to demonstrate the successful application of the developed control algorithm. The proposed method is suitable for redundant control systems and allows us to model strongly non Gaussian distributions of control signal as well as processes with hysteresis.

Business process orientated holonic (PrOH) modeling

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to describe how the application of systems thinking to designing, managing and improving business processes has resulted in a new and unique holonic-based process modeling methodology know as process orientated holonic modeling. Design/methodology/approach: The paper describes key systems thinking axioms that are built upon in an overview of the methodology; the techniques are described using an example taken from a large organization designing and manufacturing capital goods equipment operating within a complex and dynamic environment. These were produced in an 18 month project, using an action research approach, to improve quality and process efficiency. Findings: The findings of this research show that this new methodology can support process depiction and improvement in industrial sectors which are characterized by environments of high variety and low volume (e.g. projects; such as the design and manufacture of a radar system or a hybrid production process) which do not provide repetitive learning opportunities. In such circumstances, the methodology has not only been able to deliver holonic-based process diagrams but also been able to transfer strategic vision from top management to middle and operational levels without being reductionistic. Originality/value: This paper will be of interest to organizational analysts looking at large complex projects whom require a methodology that does not confine them to thinking reductionistically in "task-breakdown" based approaches. The novel ideas in this paper have great impact on the way analysts should perceive organizational processes. Future research is applying the methodology in similar environments in other industries. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Building a holarchy using business process-oriented holonic (PrOH) modeling

The application of systems thinking to designing, managing, and improving business processes has developed a new "holonic-based" process modeling methodology. The theoretical background and the methodology are described using examples taken from a large organization designing and manufacturing capital goods equipment operating within a complex and dynamic environment. A key point of differentiation attributed to this methodology is that it allows a set of models to be produced without taking a task breakdown approach but instead uses systems thinking and a construct known as the "holon" to build process descriptions as a system of systems (i.e., a holarchy). The process-oriented holonic modeling methodology has been used for total quality management and business process engineering exercises in different industrial sectors and builds models that connect the strategic vision of a company to its operational processes. Exercises have been conducted in response to environmental pressures to make operations align with strategic thinking as well as becoming increasingly agile and efficient. This unique methodology is best applied in environments of high complexity, low volume, and high variety, where repeated learning opportunities are few and far between (e.g., large development projects). © 2007 IEEE.

Hydrodynamic modeling of mineral wool fiber suspensions in a two-dimensional channel flow

A consequence of a loss of coolant accident is the damage of adjacent insulation materials (IM). IM may then be transported to the containment sump strainers where water is drawn into the ECCS (emergency core cooling system). Blockage of the strainers by IM lead to an increased pressure drop acting on the operating ECCS pumps. IM can also penetrate the strainers, enter the reactor coolant system and then accumulate in the reactor pressure vessel. An experimental and theoretical study that concentrates on mineral wool fiber transport in the containment sump and the ECCS is being performed. The study entails fiber generation and the assessment of fiber transport in single and multi-effect experiments. The experiments include measurement of the terminal settling velocity, the strainer pressure drop, fiber sedimentation and resuspension in a channel flow and jet flow in a rectangular tank. An integrated test facility is also operated to assess the compounded effects. Each experimental facility is used to provide data for the validation of equivalent computational fluid dynamic models. The channel flow facility allows the determination of the steady state distribution of the fibers at different flow velocities. The fibers are modeled in the Eulerian-Eulerian reference frame as spherical wetted agglomerates. The fiber agglomerate size, density, the relative viscosity of the fluid-fiber mixture and the turbulent dispersion of the fibers all affect the steady state accumulation of fibers at the channel base. In the current simulations, two fiber phases are separately considered. The particle size is kept constant while the density is modified, which affects both the terminal velocity and volume fraction. The relative viscosity is only significant at higher concentrations. The numerical model finds that the fibers accumulate at the channel base even at high velocities; therefore, modifications to the drag and turbulent dispersion forces can be made to reduce fiber accumulation.

Supporting decision-making for self-adaptive systems:from goal models to dynamic decision networks

Context/Motivation - Different modeling techniques have been used to model requirements and decision-making of self-adaptive systems (SASs). Specifically, goal models have been prolific in supporting decision-making depending on partial and total fulfilment of functional (goals) and non-functional requirements (softgoals). Different goalrealization strategies can have different effects on softgoals which are specified with weighted contribution-links. The final decision about what strategy to use is based, among other reasons, on a utility function that takes into account the weighted sum of the different effects on softgoals. Questions/Problems - One of the main challenges about decisionmaking in self-adaptive systems is to deal with uncertainty during runtime. New techniques are needed to systematically revise the current model when empirical evidence becomes available from the deployment. Principal ideas/results - In this paper we enrich the decision-making supported by goal models by using Dynamic Decision Networks (DDNs). Goal realization strategies and their impact on softgoals have a correspondence with decision alternatives and conditional probabilities and expected utilities in the DDNs respectively. Our novel approach allows the specification of preferences over the softgoals and supports reasoning about partial satisfaction of softgoals using probabilities. We report results of the application of the approach on two different cases. Our early results suggest the decision-making process of SASs can be improved by using DDNs. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.

A goal-based modeling approach to develop requirements of an adaptive system with environmental uncertainty

Dynamically adaptive systems (DASs) are intended to monitor the execution environment and then dynamically adapt their behavior in response to changing environmental conditions. The uncertainty of the execution environment is a major motivation for dynamic adaptation; it is impossible to know at development time all of the possible combinations of environmental conditions that will be encountered. To date, the work performed in requirements engineering for a DAS includes requirements monitoring and reasoning about the correctness of adaptations, where the DAS requirements are assumed to exist. This paper introduces a goal-based modeling approach to develop the requirements for a DAS, while explicitly factoring uncertainty into the process and resulting requirements. We introduce a variation of threat modeling to identify sources of uncertainty and demonstrate how the RELAX specification language can be used to specify more flexible requirements within a goal model to handle the uncertainty. © 2009 Springer Berlin Heidelberg.

The New Software Package for Dynamic Hierarchical Clustering for Circles Types of Shapes

In data mining, efforts have focused on finding methods for efficient and effective cluster analysis in large databases. Active themes of research focus on the scalability of clustering methods, the effectiveness of methods for clustering complex shapes and types of data, high-dimensional clustering techniques, and methods for clustering mixed numerical and categorical data in large databases. One of the most accuracy approach based on dynamic modeling of cluster similarity is called Chameleon. In this paper we present a modified hierarchical clustering algorithm that used the main idea of Chameleon and the effectiveness of suggested approach will be demonstrated by the experimental results.

Static and Dynamic Integrated Expert Systems: State of the Art, Problems and Trends

Systemized analysis of trends towards integration and hybridization in contemporary expert systems is conducted, and a particular class of applied expert systems, integrated expert systems, is considered. For this purpose, terminology, classification, and models, proposed by the author, are employed. As examples of integrated expert systems, Russian systems designed in this field and available to the majority of specialists are analyzed.

Applied Aspects of Mathematical Modeling and Optimization of Dynamics of Charged Beams

The complex of questions connected with the analysis, estimation and structural-parametrical optimization of dynamic system is considered in this article. Connection of such problems with tasks of control by beams of trajectories is emphasized. The special attention is concentrated on the review and analysis of spent scientific researches, the attention is stressed to their constructability and applied directedness. Efficiency of the developed algorithmic and software is demonstrated on the tasks of modeling and optimization of output beam characteristics in linear resonance accelerators.

Weak form equation–based finite-element modeling of viscoelastic asphalt mixtures

The objective of this study is to demonstrate using weak form partial differential equation (PDE) method for a finite-element (FE) modeling of a new constitutive relation without the need of user subroutine programming. The viscoelastic asphalt mixtures were modeled by the weak form PDE-based FE method as the examples in the paper. A solid-like generalized Maxwell model was used to represent the deforming mechanism of a viscoelastic material, the constitutive relations of which were derived and implemented in the weak form PDE module of Comsol Multiphysics, a commercial FE program. The weak form PDE modeling of viscoelasticity was verified by comparing Comsol and Abaqus simulations, which employed the same loading configurations and material property inputs in virtual laboratory test simulations. Both produced identical results in terms of axial and radial strain responses. The weak form PDE modeling of viscoelasticity was further validated by comparing the weak form PDE predictions with real laboratory test results of six types of asphalt mixtures with two air void contents and three aging periods. The viscoelastic material properties such as the coefficients of a Prony series model for the relaxation modulus were obtained by converting from the master curves of dynamic modulus and phase angle. Strain responses of compressive creep tests at three temperatures and cyclic load tests were predicted using the weak form PDE modeling and found to be comparable with the measurements of the real laboratory tests. It was demonstrated that the weak form PDE-based FE modeling can serve as an efficient method to implement new constitutive models and can free engineers from user subroutine programming.

On modeling and satisfaction of non-functional requirements using cloud computing

Specification of the non-functional requirements of applications and determining the required resources for their execution are activities that demand a great deal of technical knowledge, frequently resulting in an inefficient use of resources. Cloud computing is an alternative for provisioning of resources, which can be done using either the provider's own infrastructure or the infrastructure of one or more public clouds, or even a combination of both. It enables more flexibly/elastic use of resources, but does not solve the specification problem. In this paper we present an approach that uses models at runtime to facilitate the specification of non-functional requirements and resources, aiming to facilitate dynamic support for application execution in cloud computing environments with shared resources. © 2013 IEEE.

Viability Theory and Economic Modeling

A brief introduction into the theory of differential inclusions, viability theory and selections of set valued mappings is presented. As an application the implicit scheme of the Leontief dynamic input-output model is considered.

Framing the Game: Objections to Bapat’s Game-Theoretic Modeling of the Afghan Surge

In a recently published article in the prestigious journal Foreign Policy Analysis, Navin A. Bapat uses a rationalist approach to explain key bargaining processes related to the Afghanistan conflict, concluding that “the Afghan mission may continue for political reasons until it is impossible to sustain militarily.” The article captures the essence of the strategic situation in Afghanistan: the losing dynamic involved. This brief commentary in response is an attempt to shed light on where the tenets of Bapat’s game-theoretic model may be erroneous, even while the model does produce conclusions that appear valid overall.

A methodology for formally modeling and analyzing software architecture of mobile agent systems

A methodology for formally modeling and analyzing software architecture of mobile agent systems provides a solid basis to develop high quality mobile agent systems, and the methodology is helpful to study other distributed and concurrent systems as well. However, it is a challenge to provide the methodology because of the agent mobility in mobile agent systems.^ The methodology was defined from two essential parts of software architecture: a formalism to define the architectural models and an analysis method to formally verify system properties. The formalism is two-layer Predicate/Transition (PrT) nets extended with dynamic channels, and the analysis method is a hierarchical approach to verify models on different levels. The two-layer modeling formalism smoothly transforms physical models of mobile agent systems into their architectural models. Dynamic channels facilitate the synchronous communication between nets, and they naturally capture the dynamic architecture configuration and agent mobility of mobile agent systems. Component properties are verified based on transformed individual components, system properties are checked in a simplified system model, and interaction properties are analyzed on models composing from involved nets. Based on the formalism and the analysis method, this researcher formally modeled and analyzed a software architecture of mobile agent systems, and designed an architectural model of a medical information processing system based on mobile agents. The model checking tool SPIN was used to verify system properties such as reachability, concurrency and safety of the medical information processing system. ^ From successful modeling and analyzing the software architecture of mobile agent systems, the conclusion is that PrT nets extended with channels are a powerful tool to model mobile agent systems, and the hierarchical analysis method provides a rigorous foundation for the modeling tool. The hierarchical analysis method not only reduces the complexity of the analysis, but also expands the application scope of model checking techniques. The results of formally modeling and analyzing the software architecture of the medical information processing system show that model checking is an effective and an efficient way to verify software architecture. Moreover, this system shows a high level of flexibility, efficiency and low cost of mobile agent technologies. ^

Physical dynamic simulation of shipboard power system components in a distributed computational environment

Shipboard power systems have different characteristics than the utility power systems. In the Shipboard power system it is crucial that the systems and equipment work at their peak performance levels. One of the most demanding aspects for simulations of the Shipboard Power Systems is to connect the device under test to a real-time simulated dynamic equivalent and in an environment with actual hardware in the Loop (HIL). The real time simulations can be achieved by using multi-distributed modeling concept, in which the global system model is distributed over several processors through a communication link. The advantage of this approach is that it permits the gradual change from pure simulation to actual application. In order to perform system studies in such an environment physical phase variable models of different components of the shipboard power system were developed using operational parameters obtained from finite element (FE) analysis. These models were developed for two types of studies low and high frequency studies. Low frequency studies are used to examine the shipboard power systems behavior under load switching, and faults. High-frequency studies were used to predict abnormal conditions due to overvoltage, and components harmonic behavior. Different experiments were conducted to validate the developed models. The Simulation and experiment results show excellent agreement. The shipboard power systems components behavior under internal faults was investigated using FE analysis. This developed technique is very curial in the Shipboard power systems faults detection due to the lack of comprehensive fault test databases. A wavelet based methodology for feature extraction of the shipboard power systems current signals was developed for harmonic and fault diagnosis studies. This modeling methodology can be utilized to evaluate and predicate the NPS components future behavior in the design stage which will reduce the development cycles, cut overall cost, prevent failures, and test each subsystem exhaustively before integrating it into the system.