Look before you leap : a confidence-based method for selecting species criticality while avoiding negative populations in τ-leaping

The stochastic simulation algorithm was introduced by Gillespie and in a different form by Kurtz. There have been many attempts at accelerating the algorithm without deviating from the behavior of the simulated system. The crux of the explicit τ-leaping procedure is the use of Poisson random variables to approximate the number of occurrences of each type of reaction event during a carefully selected time period, τ. This method is acceptable providing the leap condition, that no propensity function changes “significantly” during any time-step, is met. Using this method there is a possibility that species numbers can, artificially, become negative. Several recent papers have demonstrated methods that avoid this situation. One such method classifies, as critical, those reactions in danger of sending species populations negative. At most, one of these critical reactions is allowed to occur in the next time-step. We argue that the criticality of a reactant species and its dependent reaction channels should be related to the probability of the species number becoming negative. This way only reactions that, if fired, produce a high probability of driving a reactant population negative are labeled critical. The number of firings of more reaction channels can be approximated using Poisson random variables thus speeding up the simulation while maintaining the accuracy. In implementing this revised method of criticality selection we make use of the probability distribution from which the random variable describing the change in species number is drawn. We give several numerical examples to demonstrate the effectiveness of our new method.

Stochastic chemical kinetics and the quasi-steady-state assumption : application to the stochastic simulation algorithm and chemical master equation

Recently the application of the quasi-steady-state approximation (QSSA) to the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) was suggested for the purpose of speeding up stochastic simulations of chemical systems that involve both relatively fast and slow chemical reactions [Rao and Arkin, J. Chem. Phys. 118, 4999 (2003)] and further work has led to the nested and slow-scale SSA. Improved numerical efficiency is obtained by respecting the vastly different time scales characterizing the system and then by advancing only the slow reactions exactly, based on a suitable approximation to the fast reactions. We considerably extend these works by applying the QSSA to numerical methods for the direct solution of the chemical master equation (CME) and, in particular, to the finite state projection algorithm [Munsky and Khammash, J. Chem. Phys. 124, 044104 (2006)], in conjunction with Krylov methods. In addition, we point out some important connections to the literature on the (deterministic) total QSSA (tQSSA) and place the stochastic analogue of the QSSA within the more general framework of aggregation of Markov processes. We demonstrate the new methods on four examples: Michaelis–Menten enzyme kinetics, double phosphorylation, the Goldbeter–Koshland switch, and the mitogen activated protein kinase cascade. Overall, we report dramatic improvements by applying the tQSSA to the CME solver.

Drinking and driving in Vietnam : perceptions and risk

Road traffic injuries are a major global public health problem but continue to receive inadequate attention. Alcohol influences both risk and consequence of road traffic injury but the scale of the problem is not well understood in many countries. In Vietnam, economic development has brought a substantial increase in the number of registered motorcycles as well as alcohol consumption. Traffic injury is among the leading causes of death in Vietnam but there is little local information regarding alcohol related traffic injuries. The primary goal of this study is to explore the drinking and driving patterns of males and their perceptions towards drink-driving and to determine the relationship between alcohol consumption and road traffic injuries. Furthermore, this thesis aims to present the situation analysis for choosing priority actions to reduce drinking and driving in Vietnam. The study is a combination of two cross-sectional surveys and a pilot study. The pilot study, involving 224 traffic injured patients, was conducted to test the tools and the feasibility of approach methods. In the first survey, male patrons (n=464) were randomly selected at seven restaurants. Face-to-face interviews were conducted when patrons just arrived and breath tests were collected when they were about to leave the restaurant. In the second survey, male patients admitted to hospital following a traffic injury (n=480, of which 414 were motorcycle or bicycle riders) were interviewed and their blood alcohol concentration (BAC) measured by breathalyzer. The results show broadly similar patterns of drinking and driving among male patrons and male traffic injured patients with a high frequency of drinking and drink-driving reported among the majority of the two groups. A high proportion of male patrons were leaving restaurants with a BAC over the legal limit. Factors that significantly associate with the number of drinks and BAC were age, hazardous drinking, frequency of drink-driving in the past year, self-estimated number of drinks consumed to drive legally, perceived family’s disapproval of drink-driving, and perceived legal risk and physical risk. The proportion of patrons and patients with BAC above the legal limit of 0.05 were 86.7% and 60.4% respectively, which was much higher than found in previous studies. In addition, both groups had a high prevalence of BAC over 0.15g/100ml (39.7% of patrons and 45.6% patients), a level that can seriously affect driving capacity. Results from the case-crossover analysis for patients indicate a dose-response relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of traffic injury. The risk of traffic injury increased when alcohol was consumed before driving and there was a more than 13 fold increase when six or more drinks were consumed. Regarding perceptions towards drinking and driving, findings corroborate the low awareness among males in Vietnam, with a majority of respondents holding a low knowledge of safe and legally permissible alcohol use, and a low perceived risk of drinking and driving. The results also indicate a huge gap in prevention skills in terms of planning ahead or using alternative transport to avoid drink-driving and a perception by patrons and patients of a low rate of disapproval of drink-driving from peers and family. Findings in this study have considerable implications for national policy, injury prevention, clinical practice, reporting systems, and for further research. The low rate of compliance with existing laws and a generally low perceived legal risk toward drink-driving in this study call for the strengthening of enforcement along with mass media campaigns and news coverage in order to decrease the widespread perception of impunity and thereby, to reduce the level of drink-driving. In addition, no significant difference was found in this study on risk of traffic injuries between car drivers and motorcycle drivers. The current inconsistency between legal BAC for drivers of motorcycles, compared to cars, thus needs addressing. Furthermore, as drinking was found to be very common, rather than solely targeting drink-driving, it is important to call for a more strategic and comprehensive approach to alcohol policy in Viet Nam. This study also has considerable implications for clinical practice in terms of screening and brief interventions. Our study suggests that the short form of the AUDIT (AUDIT-C) screening tool is appropriate for use in busy emergency departments. The high proportion of traffic injured patients with evidence of alcohol abuse or hazardous drinking suggests that brief interventions by alcohol and drug counselors in emergency departments are a sensible option to addressing this important problem. The significance of this study is in the combination of the systematic collection of breath test and use of case-crossover design to estimate the risk of traffic injuries after alcohol consumption. The results provide convincing evidence to policy makers, health authorities and the media to help raise community awareness and policy advocacy toward the drinkdriving problem in Vietnam. The findings suggest an urgent need for a multi-sectoral approach to curtail drink-driving in Vietnam, especially programs to raise community awareness and effective legal enforcement. Furthermore, serving as a situation analysis, the thesis should inform the formulation of interventions designed to curtail drinking and driving in Vietnam and other developing countries.

Parallel implementation of stochastic simulation for large scale cellular processes

Experimental and theoretical studies have shown the importance of stochastic processes in genetic regulatory networks and cellular processes. Cellular networks and genetic circuits often involve small numbers of key proteins such as transcriptional factors and signaling proteins. In recent years stochastic models have been used successfully for studying noise in biological pathways, and stochastic modelling of biological systems has become a very important research field in computational biology. One of the challenge problems in this field is the reduction of the huge computing time in stochastic simulations. Based on the system of the mitogen-activated protein kinase cascade that is activated by epidermal growth factor, this work give a parallel implementation by using OpenMP and parallelism across the simulation. Special attention is paid to the independence of the generated random numbers in parallel computing, that is a key criterion for the success of stochastic simulations. Numerical results indicate that parallel computers can be used as an efficient tool for simulating the dynamics of large-scale genetic regulatory networks and cellular processes

Issues and concerns of microscopic calibration process at different network levels : case study of Pacific Motorway

Calibration process in micro-simulation is an extremely complicated phenomenon. The difficulties are more prevalent if the process encompasses fitting aggregate and disaggregate parameters e.g. travel time and headway. The current practice in calibration is more at aggregate level, for example travel time comparison. Such practices are popular to assess network performance. Though these applications are significant there is another stream of micro-simulated calibration, at disaggregate level. This study will focus on such microcalibration exercise-key to better comprehend motorway traffic risk level, management of variable speed limit (VSL) and ramp metering (RM) techniques. Selected section of Pacific Motorway in Brisbane will be used as a case study. The discussion will primarily incorporate the critical issues encountered during parameter adjustment exercise (e.g. vehicular, driving behaviour) with reference to key traffic performance indicators like speed, lane distribution and headway; at specific motorway points. The endeavour is to highlight the utility and implications of such disaggregate level simulation for improved traffic prediction studies. The aspects of calibrating for points in comparison to that for whole of the network will also be briefly addressed to examine the critical issues such as the suitability of local calibration at global scale. The paper will be of interest to transport professionals in Australia/New Zealand where micro-simulation in particular at point level, is still comparatively a less explored territory in motorway management.

Issues and concerns of microscopic calibration process at different network levels : case study of pacific motorway

Calibration process in micro-simulation is an extremely complicated phenomenon. The difficulties are more prevalent if the process encompasses fitting aggregate and disaggregate parameters e.g. travel time and headway. The current practice in calibration is more at aggregate level, for example travel time comparison. Such practices are popular to assess network performance. Though these applications are significant there is another stream of micro-simulated calibration, at disaggregate level. This study will focus on such micro-calibration exercise-key to better comprehend motorway traffic risk level, management of variable speed limit (VSL) and ramp metering (RM) techniques. Selected section of Pacific Motorway in Brisbane will be used as a case study. The discussion will primarily incorporate the critical issues encountered during parameter adjustment exercise (e.g. vehicular, driving behaviour) with reference to key traffic performance indicators like speed, land distribution and headway; at specific motorway points. The endeavour is to highlight the utility and implications of such disaggregate level simulation for improved traffic prediction studies. The aspects of calibrating for points in comparison to that for whole of the network will also be briefly addressed to examine the critical issues such as the suitability of local calibration at global scale. The paper will be of interest to transport professionals in Australia/New Zealand where micro-simulation in particular at point level, is still comparatively a less explored territory in motorway management.

A traffic simulation standard based on data marts

Traffic Simulation models tend to have their own data input and output formats. In an effort to standardise the input for traffic simulations, we introduce in this paper a set of data marts that aim to serve as a common interface between the necessaary data, stored in dedicated databases, and the swoftware packages, that require the input in a certain format. The data marts are developed based on real world objects (e.g. roads, traffic lights, controllers) rather than abstract models and hence contain all necessary information that can be transformed by the importing software package to their needs. The paper contains a full description of the data marts for network coding, simulation results, and scenario management, which have been discussed with industry partners to ensure sustainability.

Automated recognition of drunk driving on highways from video sequences

A new method for the detection of abnormal vehicle trajectories is proposed. It couples optical flow extraction of vehicle velocities with a neural network classifier. Abnormal trajectories are indicative of drunk or sleepy drivers. A single feature of the vehicle, eg., a tail light, is isolated and the optical flow computed only around this feature rather than at each pixel in the image.

A study of abrasive water jet characteristics by CFD simulation

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for ultrahigh velocity waterjets and abrasive waterjets (AWJs) are established using the Fluent 6 flow solver. Jet dynamic characteristics for the flow downstream from a very fine nozzle are then simulated under steady state, turbulent, two-phase and three-phase flow conditions. Water and particle velocities in a jet are obtained under different input and boundary conditions to provide an insight into the jet characteristics and a fundamental understanding of the kerf formation process in AWJ cutting. For the range of downstream distances considered, the results indicate that a jet is characterised by an initial rapid decay of the axial velocity at the jet centre while the cross-sectional flow evolves towards a top-hat profile downstream.

High fidelity simulation; challenges encountered in developing and implementing student learning experiences, staff education and researching approaches to learning

High fidelity simulation as a teaching and learning approach is being embraced by many schools of nursing. Our school embarked on integrating high fidelity (HF) simulation into the undergraduate clinical education program in 2011. Low and medium fidelity simulation has been used for many years, but this did not simplify the integration of HF simulation. Alongside considerations of how and where HF simulation would be integrated, issues arose with: student consent and participation for observed activities; data management of video files; staff development, and conceptualising how methods for student learning could be researched. Simulation for undergraduate student nurses commenced as a formative learning activity, undertaken in groups of eight, where four students undertake the ‘doing’ role and four are structured observers, who then take a formal role in the simulation debrief. Challenges for integrating simulation into student learning included conceptualising and developing scenarios to trigger students’ decision making and application of skills, knowledge and attitudes explicit to solving clinical ‘problems’. Developing and planning scenarios for students to ‘try out’ skills and make decisions for problem solving lay beyond choosing pre-existing scenarios inbuilt with the software. The supplied scenarios were not concept based but rather knowledge, skills and technology (of the manikin) focussed. Challenges lay in using the technology for the purpose of building conceptual mastery rather than using technology simply because it was available. As we integrated use of HF simulation into the final year of the program, focus was on building skills, knowledge and attitudes that went beyond technical skill, and provided an opportunity to bridge the gap with theory-based knowledge that students often found difficult to link to clinical reality. We wished to provide opportunities to develop experiential knowledge based on application and clinical reasoning processes in team environments where problems are encountered, and to solve them, the nurse must show leadership and direction. Other challenges included students consenting for simulations to be videotaped and ethical considerations of this. For example if one student in a group of eight did not consent, did this mean they missed the opportunity to undertake simulation, or that others in the group may be disadvantaged by being unable to review their performance. This has implications for freely given consent but also for equity of access to learning opportunities for students who wished to be taped and those who did not. Alongside this issue were the details behind data management, storage and access. Developing staff with varying levels of computer skills to use software and undertake a different approach to being the ‘teacher’ required innovation where we took an experiential approach. Considering explicit learning approaches to be trialled for learning was not a difficult proposition, but considering how to enact this as research with issues of blinding, timetabling of blinded groups, and reducing bias for testing results of different learning approaches along with gaining ethical approval was problematic. This presentation presents examples of these challenges and how we overcame them.

Nurses driving change to improve access to education and quality in lcinical teaching : A partnership between Australia and Viet Nam

In Viet Nam, standards of nursing care fail to meet international competency standards. This increases risks to patient safety (eg. hospital acquired infection), consequently the Ministry of Health identified the need to strengthen nurse education in Viet Nam. This paper presents experiences of a piloted clinical teaching model developed in Ha Noi, to strengthen nurse led institutional capacity for in-service education and clinical teaching. Historically 90% of nursing education was conducted by physicians and professional development in hospitals for nurses was limited. There was minimal communication between hospitals and nursing schools about expectations of students and assessment and quality of the learning experience. As a result when students came to the clinical sites, no-one understood how to plan their learning objectives and utilise teaching and learning approaches appropriate to their level. Therefore student learning outcomes were variable. They focussed on procedures and techniques and “learning how to do” rather than learning how to plan, implement and evaluate patient care. This project is part of a multi-component capacity building program designed to improve nurse education in Viet Nam. The project was funded jointly by Queensland University of Technology (QUT) and the Australian Agency for International Development. Its aim was to develop a collaborative clinically-based model of teaching to create an environment that encourages evidence-based, student-centred clinical learning. Accordingly, strategies introduced promoted clinical teaching of competency based nursing practice utilising the regionally endorsed nurse core competency standards. Thirty nurse teachers from Viet Duc University Hospital and Hanoi Medical College participated in the program. These nurses and nurse teachers undertook face to face education in three workshops, and completed three assessment items. Assessment was applied, where participants integrated the concepts learned in each workshop and completed assessment tasks related to planning, implementing and evaluating teaching in the clinical area. Twenty of these participants were then selected to undertake a two week study tour in Brisbane, Australia where the clinical teaching model was refined and an action plan developed to integrate into both organisations with possible implementation across Viet Nam. Participants on this study tour also experienced clinical teaching and learning at QUT by attending classes held at the university, and were able to visit selected hospitals to experience clinical teaching in these settings as well. Effectiveness of the project was measured throughout the implementation phase and in follow up visits to the clinical site. To date changes have been noted on an individual and organisational level. There is also significant planning underway to incorporate the clinical teaching model developed across the organisation and how this may be implemented in other regions. Two participants have also been involved in disseminating aspects of this approach to clinical teaching in Ho Chi Minh, with further plans for more in-depth dissemination to occur throughout the country.

Using ‘think aloud’ as a strategy for learning clinical reasoning in high fidelity case-based simulation for undergraduate nursing students

AIMS This paper reports on the implementation of a research project that trials an educational strategy implemented over six months of an undergraduate third year nursing curriculum. This project aims to explore the effectiveness of ‘think aloud’ as a strategy for learning clinical reasoning for students in simulated clinical settings. BACKGROUND Nurses are required to apply and utilise critical thinking skills to enable clinical reasoning and problem solving in the clinical setting [1]. Nursing students are expected to develop and display clinical reasoning skills in practice, but may struggle articulating reasons behind decisions about patient care. For students learning to manage complex clinical situations, teaching approaches are required that make these instinctive cognitive processes explicit and clear [2-5]. In line with professional expectations, nursing students in third year at Queensland University of Technology (QUT) are expected to display clinical reasoning skills in practice. This can be a complex proposition for students in practice situations, particularly as the degree of uncertainty or decision complexity increases [6-7]. The ‘think aloud’ approach is an innovative learning/teaching method which can create an environment suitable for developing clinical reasoning skills in students [4, 8]. This project aims to use the ‘think aloud’ strategy within a simulation context to provide a safe learning environment in which third year students are assisted to uncover cognitive approaches that best assist them to make effective patient care decisions, and improve their confidence, clinical reasoning and active critical reflection on their practice. MEHODS In semester 2 2011 at QUT, third year nursing students will undertake high fidelity simulation, some for the first time commencing in September of 2011. There will be two cohorts for strategy implementation (group 1= use think aloud as a strategy within the simulation, group 2= not given a specific strategy outside of nursing assessment frameworks) in relation to problem solving patient needs. Students will be briefed about the scenario, given a nursing handover, placed into a simulation group and an observer group, and the facilitator/teacher will run the simulation from a control room, and not have contact (as a ‘teacher’) with students during the simulation. Then debriefing will occur as a whole group outside of the simulation room where the session can be reviewed on screen. The think aloud strategy will be described to students in their pre-simulation briefing and allow for clarification of this strategy at this time. All other aspects of the simulations remain the same, (resources, suggested nursing assessment frameworks, simulation session duration, size of simulation teams, preparatory materials). RESULTS Methodology of the project and the challenges of implementation will be the focus of this presentation. This will include ethical considerations in designing the project, recruitment of students and implementation of a voluntary research project within a busy educational curriculum which in third year targets 669 students over two campuses. CONCLUSIONS In an environment of increasingly constrained clinical placement opportunities, exploration of alternate strategies to improve critical thinking skills and develop clinical reasoning and problem solving for nursing students is imperative in preparing nurses to respond to changing patient needs. References 1. Lasater, K., High-fidelity simulation and the development of clinical judgement: students' experiences. Journal of Nursing Education, 2007. 46(6): p. 269-276. 2. Lapkin, S., et al., Effectiveness of patient simulation manikins in teaching clinical reasoning skills to undergraduate nursing students: a systematic review. Clinical Simulation in Nursing, 2010. 6(6): p. e207-22. 3. Kaddoura, M.P.C.M.S.N.R.N., New Graduate Nurses' Perceptions of the Effects of Clinical Simulation on Their Critical Thinking, Learning, and Confidence. The Journal of Continuing Education in Nursing, 2010. 41(11): p. 506. 4. Banning, M., The think aloud approach as an educational tool to develop and assess clinical reasoning in undergraduate students. Nurse Education Today, 2008. 28: p. 8-14. 5. Porter-O'Grady, T., Profound change:21st century nursing. Nursing Outlook, 2001. 49(4): p. 182-186. 6. Andersson, A.K., M. Omberg, and M. Svedlund, Triage in the emergency department-a qualitative study of the factors which nurses consider when making decisions. Nursing in Critical Care, 2006. 11(3): p. 136-145. 7. O'Neill, E.S., N.M. Dluhy, and C. Chin, Modelling novice clinical reasoning for a computerized decision support system. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 2005. 49(1): p. 68-77. 8. Lee, J.E. and N. Ryan-Wenger, The "Think Aloud" seminar for teaching clinical reasoning: a case study of a child with pharyngitis. J Pediatr Health Care, 1997. 11(3): p. 101-10.

Drink driving after the first offence: Characteristics of offenders who continue to drink and drive

Drink driving remains a significant problem on Australian roads, with about a quarter to a third of fatal crashes involving drivers or riders who have a BAC of 0.05 or greater. Last available data in the state of Queensland (2003) of the major factors involved in road fatalities and injuries indicated that alcohol and drugs were noted as one of the contributing factors in 38% of fatalities and 11% of all crashes, making it the highest single contributing factor to road fatalities. Until this point, there has been little information about first time offenders as a group, but it is known that offenders typically are not first time drink drivers but rather ‘first time apprehended’, in that most have engaged in drink driving in the years leading to the first offence. This paper follows 89 first time drink driving offenders who were interviewed at the time of court mention and followed up around 6 months following the court hearing. Of the offenders, 27% reported to have driven over the limit in the time between initial contact and follow up. The paper demonstrates the characteristics and offending patterns of first offenders who engaged in drink driving following conviction and those who didn’t, providing suggestions on how to target those at high risk for the behaviour and subsequent offending.

The impact of completing a drink driving rehabilitation program on future drinking : the clients’ perspective

The paper explores the role and focus of drink driving rehabilitation programs. It is particularly concerned with whether programs that specifically focus on reducing driving after drinking also have a positive effect on clients’ levels of drinking. A sample of volunteering clients was recruited while they were participating in the Australian “Under the Limit” program and they were followed up at least three months post completion. Response rates were very low and the sample is assumed to reflect the views and outcomes of persons who felt positive about the program. Clients reported large and meaningful reductions in their drinking and in their drink driving. They also reported important moves towards action and change in their drinking habits. The findings deserve to be followed up given the fact that drink driving programs are generally of much shorter duration than alcohol focussed interventions. There is a need for further research in this area and for developing more effective recruitment strategies.