Minimum distance estimation of stationary and non-stationary ARFIMA processes

A new parametric minimum distance time-domain estimator for ARFIMA processes is introduced in this paper. The proposed estimator minimizes the sum of squared correlations of residuals obtained after filtering a series through ARFIMA parameters. The estimator iseasy to compute and is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed for fractionallyintegrated (FI) processes with an integration order d strictly greater than -0.75. Therefore, it can be applied to both stationary and non-stationary processes. Deterministic components are also allowed in the DGP. Furthermore, as a by-product, the estimation procedure provides an immediate check on the adequacy of the specified model. This is so because the criterion function, when evaluated at the estimated values, coincides with the Box-Pierce goodness of fit statistic. Empirical applications and Monte-Carlo simulations supporting the analytical results and showing the good performance of the estimator in finite samples are also provided.

Dispersion of natural arsenic in the Malcantone watershed, Southern Switzerland: field evidence for repeated sorption-desorption and oxidation-reduction processes

In recent years, elevated arsenic concentrations have been found in waters and soils of many, countries, often resulting in a health threat for the local population. Switzerland is not an exception and this paper deals with the release and subsequent fate of arsenic in a 200-km(2) mountainous watershed, characterized by crystalline silicate rocks (gneisses, schists, amphibolites) that contain abundant As-bearing sulfide ore deposits, some of which have been mined for iron and gold in the past. Using analytical methods common for mineralogical, ground water and soil studies (XRD, XRF, XAS-XANES and -EXAFS, electron microprobe, extraction, ICP, AAS with hydride generator, ion chromatography), seven different field situations and related dispersion processes of natural arsenic have been studied: (1) release by rock weathering, (2) transport and deposition by water and ice; (3) release of As to the ground and surface water due to increasing pH; (4) accumulation in humic soil horizons; (5) remobilization by reduction in water-saturated soils and stagnant ground waters; (6) remobilization by using P-rich fertilizers or dung and (7) oxidation, precipitation and dilution in surface waters. Comparison of the results with experimental adsorption studies and speciation diagrams from the literature allows us to reconstruct and identify the typical behavior of arsenic in a natural environment under temperate climatic conditions. The main parameters identified are: (a) once liberated from the primary minerals, sorption processes on Fe-oxy-hydroxides dominate over Al-phases, such as Al-hydroxides or clay minerals and limit the As concentrations in the spring and well waters between 20 and 300 mug/l. (b) Precipitation as secondary minerals is limited to the weathering domain, where the As concentrations are still high and not yet too diluted by rain and soils waters. (c) Although neutral and alkaline pH conditions clearly increase the mobility of As, the main factor to mobilize As is a low redox potential (Eh close or below 0 mV), which favors the dissolution of the Fe-oxy-hydroxides on which the As is sorbed. (d) X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) of As in water-logged humic forest soils indicates that the reduction to As III only occurs at the solid-water interface and that the solid contains As as As V (e) A and Bh horizons of humic cambisols can effectively capture As when As-rich waters flow through them. Complex spatial and temporal variation of the various parameters in a watershed results in repeated mobilization and immobilization of As, which continuously transports As from the upper to the lower part of a watershed and ultimately to the ocean. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploiting fitness distance correlation of set covering problems

The set covering problem is an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problemthat arises in applications ranging from crew scheduling in airlines todriver scheduling in public mass transport. In this paper we analyze searchspace characteristics of a widely used set of benchmark instances throughan analysis of the fitness-distance correlation. This analysis shows thatthere exist several classes of set covering instances that have a largelydifferent behavior. For instances with high fitness distance correlation,we propose new ways of generating core problems and analyze the performanceof algorithms exploiting these core problems.

Comprendre la dispersion des espèces dans l'espace et dans le temps : un défi pour les biogéographes

De tout temps, l'homme s'est interrogé sur les facteurs qui régissent la distribution des espèces. Comment se dispersent-elles? Comment occupent-elles un milieu? Pourquoi certaines caractéristiques biologiques d'une même entité spécifique varient-elles en différents points de l'espace? Pour répondre à ces questions, il faut faire appel à de nombreuses disciplines scientifiques, telles que l'écologie, la géologie, la climatologie ou la paléontologie. Comprendre la distribution spatiale de la vie, quel que soit le niveau taxonomique, tel est l'objectif de la biogéographie

Unfolding nature "in silico" : overcoming practical and metodological limitations of species distribution models

Abstract : The existence of a causal relationship between the spatial distribution of living organisms and their environment, in particular climate, has been long recognized and is the central principle of biogeography. In turn, this recognition has led scientists to the idea of using the climatic, topographic, edaphic and biotic characteristics of the environment to predict its potential suitability for a given species or biological community. In this thesis, my objective is to contribute to the development of methodological improvements in the field of species distribution modeling. More precisely, the objectives are to propose solutions to overcome limitations of species distribution models when applied to conservation biology issues, or when .used as an assessment tool of the potential impacts of global change. The first objective of my thesis is to contribute to evidence the potential of species distribution models for conservation-related applications. I present a methodology to generate pseudo-absences in order to overcome the frequent lack of reliable absence data. I also demonstrate, both theoretically (simulation-based) and practically (field-based), how species distribution models can be successfully used to model and sample rare species. Overall, the results of this first part of the thesis demonstrate the strong potential of species distribution models as a tool for practical applications in conservation biology. The second objective this thesis is to contribute to improve .projections of potential climate change impacts on species distributions, and in particular for mountain flora. I develop and a dynamic model, MIGCLIM, that allows the implementation of dispersal limitations into classic species distribution models and present an application of this model to two virtual species. Given that accounting for dispersal limitations requires information on seed dispersal, distances, a general methodology to classify species into broad dispersal types is also developed. Finally, the M~GCLIM model is applied to a large number of species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps. Overall, the results indicate that while dispersal limitations can have an important impact on the outcome of future projections of species distributions under climate change scenarios, estimating species threat levels (e.g. species extinction rates) for a mountainous areas of limited size (i.e. regional scale) can also be successfully achieved when considering dispersal as unlimited (i.e. ignoring dispersal limitations, which is easier from a practical point of view). Finally, I present the largest fine scale assessment of potential climate change impacts on mountain vegetation that has been carried-out to date. This assessment involves vegetation from 12 study areas distributed across all major western and central European mountain ranges. The results highlight that some mountain ranges (the Pyrenees and the Austrian Alps) are expected to be more affected by climate change than others (Norway and the Scottish Highlands). The results I obtain in this study also indicate that the threat levels projected by fine scale models are less severe than those derived from coarse scale models. This result suggests that some species could persist in small refugias that are not detected by coarse scale models. Résumé : L'existence d'une relation causale entre la répartition des espèces animales et végétales et leur environnement, en particulier le climat, a été mis en évidence depuis longtemps et est un des principes centraux en biogéographie. Ce lien a naturellement conduit à l'idée d'utiliser les caractéristiques climatiques, topographiques, édaphiques et biotiques de l'environnement afin d'en prédire la qualité pour une espèce ou une communauté. Dans ce travail de thèse, mon objectif est de contribuer au développement d'améliorations méthodologiques dans le domaine de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces dans le paysage. Plus précisément, les objectifs sont de proposer des solutions afin de surmonter certaines limitations des modèles de distribution d'espèces dans des applications pratiques de biologie de la conservation ou dans leur utilisation pour évaluer l'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur l'environnement. Le premier objectif majeur de mon travail est de contribuer à démontrer le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces pour des applications pratiques en biologie de la conservation. Je propose une méthode pour générer des pseudo-absences qui permet de surmonter le problème récurent du manque de données d'absences fiables. Je démontre aussi, de manière théorique (par simulation) et pratique (par échantillonnage de terrain), comment les modèles de distribution d'espèces peuvent être utilisés pour modéliser et améliorer l'échantillonnage des espèces rares. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces comme outils pour des applications de biologie de la conservation. Le deuxième objectif majeur de ce travail est de contribuer à améliorer les projections d'impacts potentiels des changements climatiques sur la flore, en particulier dans les zones de montagnes. Je développe un modèle dynamique de distribution appelé MigClim qui permet de tenir compte des limitations de dispersion dans les projections futures de distribution potentielle d'espèces, et teste son application sur deux espèces virtuelles. Vu que le fait de prendre en compte les limitations dues à la dispersion demande des données supplémentaires importantes (p.ex. la distance de dispersion des graines), ce travail propose aussi une méthode de classification simplifiée des espèces végétales dans de grands "types de disperseurs", ce qui permet ainsi de d'obtenir de bonnes approximations de distances de dispersions pour un grand nombre d'espèces. Finalement, j'applique aussi le modèle MIGCLIM à un grand nombre d'espèces de plantes dans une zone d'études des pré-Alpes vaudoises. Les résultats montrent que les limitations de dispersion peuvent avoir un impact considérable sur la distribution potentielle d'espèces prédites sous des scénarios de changements climatiques. Cependant, quand les modèles sont utilisés pour évaluer les taux d'extinction d'espèces dans des zones de montages de taille limitée (évaluation régionale), il est aussi possible d'obtenir de bonnes approximations en considérant la dispersion des espèces comme illimitée, ce qui est nettement plus simple d'un point dé vue pratique. Pour terminer je présente la plus grande évaluation à fine échelle d'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur la flore des montagnes conduite à ce jour. Cette évaluation englobe 12 zones d'études réparties sur toutes les chaines de montages principales d'Europe occidentale et centrale. Les résultats montrent que certaines chaines de montagnes (les Pyrénées et les Alpes Autrichiennes) sont projetées comme plus sensibles aux changements climatiques que d'autres (les Alpes Scandinaves et les Highlands d'Ecosse). Les résultats obtenus montrent aussi que les modèles à échelle fine projettent des impacts de changement climatiques (p. ex. taux d'extinction d'espèces) moins sévères que les modèles à échelle large. Cela laisse supposer que les modèles a échelle fine sont capables de modéliser des micro-niches climatiques non-détectées par les modèles à échelle large.

Four 13-lipoxygenases contribute to rapid jasmonate synthesis in wounded Arabidopsis thaliana leaves: a role for lipoxygenase 6 in responses to long-distance wound signals.

Damage-inducible defenses in plants are controlled in part by jasmonates, fatty acid-derived regulators that start to accumulate within 30 s of wounding a leaf. Using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, we sought to identify the 13-lipoxygenases (13-LOXs) that initiate wound-induced jasmonate synthesis within a 190-s timeframe in Arabidopsis thaliana in 19 single, double, triple and quadruple mutant combinations derived from the four 13-LOX genes in this plant. All four 13-LOXs were found to contribute to jasmonate synthesis in wounded leaves: among them LOX6 showed a unique behavior. The relative contribution of LOX6 to jasmonate synthesis increased with distance from a leaf tip wound, and LOX6 was the only 13-LOX necessary for the initiation of early jasmonate synthesis in leaves distal to the wounded leaf. Herbivory assays that compared Spodoptera littoralis feeding on the lox2-1 lox3B lox4A lox6A quadruple mutant and the lox2-1 lox3B lox4A triple mutant revealed a role for LOX6 in defense of the shoot apical meristem. Consistent with this, we found that LOX6 promoter activity was strong in the apical region of rosettes. The LOX6 promoter was active in and near developing xylem cells and in expression domains we term subtrichomal mounds.

Accurate calculations of intermolecular interaction energies using explicitly correlated coupled cluster wave functions and a dispersion-weighted MP2 method.

Explicitly correlated coupled-cluster calculations of intermolecular interaction energies for the S22 benchmark set of Jurecka, Sponer, Cerny, and Hobza (Chem. Phys. Phys. Chem. 2006, 8, 1985) are presented. Results obtained with the recently proposed CCSD(T)-F12a method and augmented double-zeta basis sets are found to be in very close agreement with basis set extrapolated conventional CCSD(T) results. Furthermore, we propose a dispersion-weighted MP2 (DW-MP2) approximation that combines the good accuracy of MP2 for complexes with predominately electrostatic bonding and SCS-MP2 for dispersion-dominated ones. The MP2-F12 and SCS-MP2-F12 correlation energies are weighted by a switching function that depends on the relative HF and correlation contributions to the interaction energy. For the S22 set, this yields a mean absolute deviation of 0.2 kcal/mol from the CCSD(T)-F12a results. The method, which allows obtaining accurate results at low cost, is also tested for a number of dimers that are not in the training set.

Variation in the level of aggression, chemical and genetic distance among three supercolonies of the Argentine ant in Europe.

In their invasive ranges, Argentine ant populations often form one geographically vast supercolony, genetically and chemically uniform within which there is no intraspecific aggression. Here we present regional patterns of intraspecific aggression, cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) and population genetics of 18 nesting sites across Corsica and the French mainland. Aggression tests confirm the presence of a third European supercolony, the Corsican supercolony, which exhibits moderate to high levels of aggression, depending on nesting sites, with the Main supercolony, and invariably high levels of aggression with the Catalonian supercolony. The chemical analyses corroborated the behavioural data, with workers of the Corsican supercolony showing moderate differences in CHCs compared to workers of the European Main supercolony and strong differences compared to workers of the Catalonian supercolony. Interestingly, there were also clear genetic differences between workers of the Catalonian supercolony and the two other supercolonies at both nuclear and mitochondrial markers, but only very weak genetic differentiation between nesting sites of the Corsican and Main supercolonies (F(ST) = 0.06). A detailed comparison of the genetic composition of supercolonies also revealed that, if one of the last two supercolonies derived from the other, it is the Main supercolony that derived from the Corsican supercolony rather than the reverse. Overall, these findings highlight the importance of conducting more qualitative and quantitative analyses of the level of aggression between supercolonies, which has to be correlated with genetic and chemical data.

Bootstrapping pairs in Distance-Based Regression

La regressió basada en distàncies és un mètode de predicció que consisteix en dos passos: a partir de les distàncies entre observacions obtenim les variables latents, les quals passen a ser els regressors en un model lineal de mínims quadrats ordinaris. Les distàncies les calculem a partir dels predictors originals fent us d'una funció de dissimilaritats adequada. Donat que, en general, els regressors estan relacionats de manera no lineal amb la resposta, la seva selecció amb el test F usual no és possible. En aquest treball proposem una solució a aquest problema de selecció de predictors definint tests estadístics generalitzats i adaptant un mètode de bootstrap no paramètric per a l'estimació dels p-valors. Incluim un exemple numèric amb dades de l'assegurança d'automòbils.

Triathlon event distance specialization: training and injury effects.

We conducted a preliminary, questionnaire-based, retrospective analysis of training and injury in British National Squad Olympic distance (OD) and Ironman distance (IR) triathletes. The main outcome measures were training duration and training frequency and injury frequency and severity. The number of overuse injuries sustained over a 5-year period did not differ between OD and IR. However, the proportions of OD and IR athletes who were affected by injury to particular anatomical sites differed (p < 0.05). Also, fewer OD athletes (16.7 vs. 36.8%, p < 0.05) reported that their injury recurred. Although OD sustained fewer running injuries than IR (1.6 +/- 0.5 vs. 1.9 +/- 0.3, p < 0.05), more subsequently stopped running (41.7 vs. 15.8%) and for longer (33.5 +/- 43.0 vs. 16.7 +/- 16.6 days, p < 0.01). In OD, the number of overuse injuries sustained inversely correlated with percentage training time, and number of sessions, doing bike hill repetitions (r = -0.44 and -0.39, respectively, both p < 0.05). The IR overuse injury number correlated with the amount of intensive sessions done (r = 0.67, p < 0.01 and r = 0.56, p < 0.05 for duration of "speed run" and "speed bike" sessions). Coaches should note that training differences between triathletes who specialize in OD or IR competition may lead to their exhibiting differential risk for injury to specific anatomical sites. It is also important to note that cycle and run training may have a "cumulative stress" influence on injury risk. Therefore, the tendency of some triathletes to modify rather than stop training when injured-usually by increasing load in another discipline from that in which the injury first occurred-may increase both their risk of injury recurrence and time to full rehabilitation.