The time series convergence of dispersion in financial analysts' forecasts

Finansanalytiker har en stor betydelse för finansmarknaderna, speciellt igenom att förmedla information genom resultatprognoser. Typiskt är att analytiker i viss grad är oeniga i sina resultatprognoser, och det är just denna oenighet analytiker emellan som denna avhandling studerar. Då ett företag rapporterar förluster tenderar oenigheten gällande ett företags framtid att öka. På ett intuitivt plan är det lätt att tolka detta som ökad osäkerhet. Det är även detta man finner då man studerar analytikerrapporter - analytiker ser ut att bli mer osäkra då företag börjar gå med förlust, och det är precis då som även oenigheten mellan analytikerna ökar. De matematisk-teoretiska modeller som beskriver analytikers beslutsprocesser har däremot en motsatt konsekvens - en ökad oenighet analytiker emellan kan endast uppkomma ifall analytikerna blir säkrare på ett individuellt plan, där den drivande kraften är asymmetrisk information. Denna avhandling löser motsägelsen mellan ökad säkerhet/osäkerhet som drivkraft bakom spridningen i analytikerprognoser. Genom att beakta mängden publik information som blir tillgänglig via resultatrapporter är det inte möjligt för modellerna för analytikers beslutsprocesser att ge upphov till de nivåer av prognosspridning som kan observeras i data. Slutsatsen blir därmed att de underliggande teoretiska modellerna för prognosspridning är delvis bristande och att spridning i prognoser istället mer troligt följer av en ökad osäkerhet bland analytikerna, i enlighet med vad analytiker de facto nämner i sina rapporter. Resultaten är viktiga eftersom en förståelse av osäkerhet runt t.ex. resultatrapportering bidrar till en allmän förståelse för resultatrapporteringsmiljön som i sin tur är av ytterst stor betydelse för prisbildning på finansmarknader. Vidare används typiskt ökad prognosspridning som en indikation på ökad informationsasymmetri i redovisningsforskning, ett fenomen som denna avhandling därmed ifrågasätter.

CFD modeling of dispersion water feed in wastewater cleaning application

Fluid particle breakup and coalescence are important phenomena in a number of industrial flow systems. This study deals with a gas-liquid bubbly flow in one wastewater cleaning application. Three-dimensional geometric model of a dispersion water system was created in ANSYS CFD meshing software. Then, numerical study of the system was carried out by means of unsteady simulations performed in ANSYS FLUENT CFD software. Single-phase water flow case was setup to calculate the entire flow field using the RNG k-epsilon turbulence model based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. Bubbly flow case was based on a computational fluid dynamics - population balance model (CFD-PBM) coupled approach. Bubble breakup and coalescence were considered to determine the evolution of the bubble size distribution. Obtained results are considered as steps toward optimization of the cleaning process and will be analyzed in order to make the process more efficient.

Puuperäiset polymeerit synteettisten sideaineiden korvaajina

Tämän kandidaatintyön aiheena oli löytää biojalostamon näkökulmasta käyttökelpoisia tuotantoreittejä puuperäisistä materiaaleista bioperäisiin kemikaaleihin, joilla olisi mahdollista korvata synteettisiä sideaineita. Tällä hetkellä suurin osa sideaineista ja päällystemateriaaleista tuotetaan uusiutumattomista luonnonvaroista, kuten maakaasusta ja öljystä. Lopputuotteiden kierrätettävyyden ja vihreyden ohella yksi metsäteollisuuden tulevaisuuden trendejä on pyrkiä irti öljy- ja maakaasuriippuvuudesta. Muutoksella voidaan säästää sekä ympäristöä, että rahaa. Biopohjaisilla drop-in kemikaaleilla ja muilla biopohjaisilla vaihtoehdoilla tämä on mahdollista Tässä työssä tutkittiin ja havainnollistettiin mahdollisin tuotantoreitein useiden tällä hetkellä käytössä olevien sideaineiden korvaamista biopohjaisilla versioilla. Työ tehtiin kirjallisuustutkielmana, eikä siihen kuulunut laboratoriokokeita. Työn ensimmäisessä osassa painopiste on biojalostamossa ja dispersiopäällystyksessä. Toisessa osassa esitellään tällä hetkellä käytettyjä sideaineita ja niiden mahdollisia biopohjaisia korvaajia tuotantoreitteineen. Työn toissijainen tarkoitus oli selvittää lyhyesti mitä muita puuperäisiä komponentteja voidaan käyttää suoraan paperin ja kartongin päällystämiseen. Viimeiseksi on esitelty vielä lyhyesti kaupallisesti käytössä olevia biomuoveja ja päällysteitä.

Impaired regeneration of dystrophin-deficient muscle fibers is caused by exhaustion of myogenic cells

Duchenne muscular dystrophy is one of the most devastating myopathies. Muscle fibers undergo necrosis and lose their ability to regenerate, and this may be related to increased interstitial fibrosis or the exhaustion of satellite cells. In this study, we used mdx mice, an animal model of Duchenne muscular dystrophy, to assess whether muscle fibers lose their ability to regenerate after repeated cycles of degeneration-regeneration and to establish the role of interstitial fibrosis or exhaustion of satellite cells in this process. Repeated degenerative-regenerative cycles were induced by the injection of bupivacaine (33 mg/kg), a myotoxic agent. Bupivacaine was injected weekly into the right tibialis anterior muscle of male, 8-week-old mdx (N = 20) and C57Bl/10 (control, N = 10) mice for 20 and 50 weeks. Three weeks after the last injection, the mice were killed and the proportion of regenerated fibers was counted and reported as a fibrosis index. Twenty weekly bupivacaine injections did not change the ability of mdx muscle to regenerate. However, after 50 weekly bupivacaine injections, there was a significant decrease in the regenerative response. There was no correlation between the inability to regenerate and the increase in interstitial fibrosis. These results show that after prolonged repeated cycles of degeneration-regeneration, mdx muscle loses its ability to regenerate because of the exhaustion of satellite cells, rather than because of an increase in interstitial fibrosis. This finding may be relevant to cell and gene therapy in the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Changes in types of muscle fibers induced by transcutaneous electrical stimulation of the diaphragm of rats

The objective of the present study was to assess the effect of transcutaneous electrical diaphragmatic stimulation (TEDS) on different types of diaphragm muscle fibers. Male Wistar rats (8-12 weeks old) were divided into 2 experimental groups (N = 8 in each group): 1) control, 2) animals submitted to TEDS [frequency = 50 Hz; T ON/T OFF (contraction/relaxation time) = 2/2 s; pulse duration = 0.4 ms, intensity = 5 mA with a 1 mA increase every 3 min for 20 min] for 7 days. After completing this treatment period, the I, IIA, IIB, and IID diaphragm muscle fibers were identified using the mATPase technique. Statistical analysis consisted of the normality, homoscedasticity and t-tests (P < 0.05). There was a 19.6% (P < 0.05) reduction in the number of type I fibers and a 49.7% increase (P < 0.05) in type IID fibers in the TEDS group compared with the control group. An important result of the present study was that electrical stimulation with surface electrodes was efficient in altering the distribution of fibers in diaphragm muscle. This therapeutic resource could be used in the treatment of respiratory muscle alterations.

Three days of intermittent stretching after muscle disuse alters the proteins involved in force transmission in muscle fibers in weanling rats

The aim of this study was to determine the effects of intermittent passive manual stretching on various proteins involved in force transmission in skeletal muscle. Female Wistar weanling rats were randomly assigned to 5 groups: 2 control groups containing 21- and 30-day-old rats that received neither immobilization nor stretching, and 3 test groups that received 1) passive stretching over 3 days, 2) immobilization for 7 days and then passive stretching over 3 days, or 3) immobilization for 7 days. Maximal plantar flexion in the right hind limb was imposed, and the stretching protocol of 10 repetitions of 30 s stretches was applied. The soleus muscles were harvested and processed for HE and picrosirius staining; immunohistochemical analysis of collagen types I, III, IV, desmin, and vimentin; and immunofluorescence labeling of dystrophin and CD68. The numbers of desmin- and vimentin-positive cells were significantly decreased compared with those in the control following immobilization, regardless of whether stretching was applied (P<0.05). In addition, the semi-quantitative analysis showed that collagen type I was increased and type IV was decreased in the immobilized animals, regardless of whether the stretching protocol was applied. In conclusion, the largest changes in response to stretching were observed in muscles that had been previously immobilized, and the stretching protocol applied here did not mitigate the immobilization-induced muscle changes. Muscle disuse adversely affected several proteins involved in the transmission of forces between the intracellular and extracellular compartments. Thus, the 3-day rehabilitation period tested here did not provide sufficient time for the muscles to recover from the disuse maladaptations in animals undergoing postnatal development.

EXTRACTION OF OIL FROM PRESSED PALM OIL (Elaes guineensis) FIBERS USING SUPERCRITICAL CO2

Residual fibers from palm oil production are a good source of carotene, since they contain more than 5% of the original oil, with about 5000 ppm of carotenoids. As carotenoids are thermosensitive molecules, supercritical CO2 can be used for oil recovery, because this technique employs low temperatures. In this work results of oil extraction experiments from pressed palm oil fibers are shown. Fibers were from AGROPALMA, an industry which is located in Tailândia (Pará, Brazil). Extractions were carried out at 200, 250 and 300 bar and at temperatures of 45 and 55oC. Oil was analyzed by UV/vis spectrophotometry for total carotene determination. Results showed a large increase in extraction rate from 200 to 250 bar and a small variation from 250 to 300 bar. The total amount of carotenes did not increase in the course of extraction at 300 bar, but it showed a large increase at 200 and at 250 bar. Free fatty acids are present in amounts larger than those found in commercial oils.

Macrocospic and physiochemical characterization of a sugarless and gluten-free cake enriched with fibers made from pumpkin seed (Cucurbita maxima, L.) flour and cornstarch

The Consumers' interest for products with caloric reduction has increased, and their development is a technological challenge. The consumption of cakes has grown in importance and the demand for dietary products has stimulated the use of sweeteners and the optimization of bakery products. The consumption of fibers is related to chronic diseases prevention. Pumpkin seeds (maximum Cucurbita, L.), rich in fibers, can be used as a source of fiber in food products. A gluten-free diet is not easy to follow since gluten free products are not always available. The objective of this work was to perform a physicochemical characterization of cakes prepared with flours blends (FB) based on Pumpkin Seed Flour (PSF). The cakes were elaborated with FB in the ratios of 30:70 (C30) and 40:60 (C40) of PSF and cornstarch (CS), respectively. The results showed gluten absence and near-neutral pH. The chemical analysis of C30 and B40 showed increase of ashes, lipids, proteins, and insoluble dietary fiber and a decrease in the content of carbohydrates and calories. The chemical composition of C40 presented the greatest content of lipids, proteins, and dietary fibers, the lowest content of calories, and the best physical parameters. Therefore, both products proved suitable for human consumption.

Soursop juice stabilized with soy fractions: a rheologial approach

The potential use of soybean soluble polysaccharide (SSPS) as a stabilizer in acidic beverages was evaluated using rheological and stability studies. For this purpose, soy-based beverages were formulated with soy protein isolate (SPI) and soursop juice due to the low stability of this kind of dispersion. The influences of the concentrations of soybean soluble polysaccharide, calcium chloride, and soy protein isolate on the stability and rheology of soursop juice were evaluated using a factorial experimental design. Interactions between the concentrations of soybean soluble polysaccharide and soy protein isolate exerted a positive effect on the maximum Newtonian viscosity. The stability was positively influenced by the soybean soluble polysaccharide and soy protein isolate concentrations, but the interactions between soy protein isolate and CaCl2 also affected the sedimentation index. These results suggest that soybean soluble polysaccharide is effective in stabilizing fibers and proteins in acidic suspensions due to the increase in viscosity and steric effect caused by the formation of complexes between the soybean soluble polysaccharide and soy protein isolate.

Wood species identification by visual characterization of fibers

Kandidaatintyö tehtiin osana PulpVision-tutkimusprojektia, jonka tarkoituksena on kehittää kuvapohjaisia laskenta- ja luokittelumetodeja sellun laaduntarkkailuun paperin valmistuksessa. Tämän tutkimusprojektin osana on aiemmin kehitetty metodi, jolla etsittiin kaarevia rakenteita kuvista, ja tätä metodia hyödynnettiin kuitujen etsintään kuvista. Tätä metodia käytettiin lähtökohtana kandidaatintyölle. Työn tarkoituksena oli tutkia, voidaanko erilaisista kuitukuvista laskettujen piirteiden avulla tunnistaa kuvassa olevien kuitujen laji. Näissä kuitukuvissa oli kuituja neljästä eri puulajista ja yhdestä kasvista. Nämä lajit olivat akasia, koivu, mänty, eukalyptus ja vehnä. Jokaisesta lajista valittiin 100 kuitukuvaa ja nämä kuvat jaettiin kahteen ryhmään, joista ensimmäistä käytettiin opetusryhmänä ja toista testausryhmänä. Opetusryhmän avulla jokaiselle kuitulajille laskettiin näitä kuvaavia piirteitä, joiden avulla pyrittiin tunnistamaan testausryhmän kuvissa olevat kuitulajit. Nämä kuvat oli tuottanut CEMIS-Oulu (Center for Measurement and Information Systems), joka on mittaustekniikkaan keskittynyt yksikkö Oulun yliopistossa. Yksittäiselle opetusryhmän kuitukuvalle laskettiin keskiarvot ja keskihajonnat kolmesta eri piirteestä, jotka olivat pituus, leveys ja kaarevuus. Lisäksi laskettiin, kuinka monta kuitua kuvasta löydettiin. Näiden piirteiden eri yhdistelmien avulla testattiin tunnistamisen tarkkuutta käyttämällä k:n lähimmän naapurin menetelmää ja Naiivi Bayes -luokitinta testausryhmän kuville. Testeistä saatiin lupaavia tuloksia muun muassa pituuden ja leveyden keskiarvoja käytettäessä saavutettiin jopa noin 98 %:n tarkkuus molemmilla algoritmeilla. Tunnistuksessa kuitujen keskimäärinen pituus vaikutti olevan kuitukuvia parhaiten kuvaava piirre. Käytettyjen algoritmien välillä ei ollut suurta vaihtelua tarkkuudessa. Testeissä saatujen tulosten perusteella voidaan todeta, että kuitukuvien tunnistaminen on mahdollista. Testien perusteella kuitukuvista tarvitsee laskea vain kaksi piirrettä, joilla kuidut voidaan tunnistaa tarkasti. Käytetyt lajittelualgoritmit olivat hyvin yksinkertaisia, mutta ne toimivat testeissä hyvin.

Geochemistry and mineralogical association of heavy metal contaminants in fine grained sediment, Welland River, Southern Ontario /

This investigation of geochemistry and mineralogy of heavy metals in fine grained (<63^m) sediment of the Welland River was imdertaken to: 1) describe metal dispersion patterns relative to a source, identify minerals forming and existing at the outfall region and relate sediment particle size to chemistry; 2) to delineate sample handling, preparation and evaluate, modify and develop analytical methods for heavy metal analysis of complex environmental samples. Ajoint project between Brock University and Geoscience Laboratories was initiated to test a contaminated site of the Welland River at the base of Atlas Speciality Steels Co. Methods were developed and utilized for particle size separation and two acid extraction techniques: 1) Partial extraction; 2) Total extraction. The mineralogical assessment identified calcite, dolomite, quartz and clays. These minerals are typical of the carbonate-shale rock basement of the Niagara Peninsula. Minerals such as, mullite and ferrocolumbite were found at the outfall region. These are not typical of the local geology and are generally associated with industrial pollutants. Partial and total extraction techniques were used to characterize the sediments based on chemical distribution, elemental behaviour and analytical differences. The majority of elements were lower in concentration in the partial extraction technique; suggesting these elements are bound in an acid extractable phase (exchangeable, organic and carbonate phases). The total extraction technique yielded higher elemental concentrations taking difficult oxides and silicates into solution. Geochemical analyses of grain size separates revealed that heavy metal (Co, Ni, V, Mn, Fe, Ba) concentrations did not increase with decreasing grain size. This is a function of the anthropogenic mill scale input into the river. The background elements (Sc, Y, Sr, Mg, Al and Ti) showed an increase in concentration to the finest grain size suggesting that it is directly related to the local mineralogy and geology. Dispersion patterns ofmetals fall into two distinct categories: 1) the heavy metals (Co, Cu, Ni, Zn, V and Cr), and 2) the background elements (Be, Sc, Y, Sr, Al and Ti). The heavy metals show a marked increase in the outfall region, while the background elements show a significant decrease at the outfall. This pattern is attributed to a "dilution effect" ofthe natural sediments by the anthropogenic mill scale sediments. Multivariant statistical analysis and correlation coefficient matrix results clearly support these results and conclusions. These results indicate the outfall region ofthe Welland River is highly contaminated with to heavy metals from the industrialized area of Welland. A short distance downstream, the metal concentrations return to baseline geochemical levels. It appears, contaminants rapidly come out of suspension and are deposited in close proximity to the source. Therefore, it is likely that dredging the sediment from the river may cause resuspension of contaminated sediments, but may not distribute the sediment as far as initially anticipated.

Phonon dispersion curves and atomic mean square displacement for several fcc and bcc materials

The atomic mean square displacement (MSD) and the phonon dispersion curves (PDC's) of a number of face-centred cubic (fcc) and body-centred cubic (bcc) materials have been calclllated from the quasiharmonic (QH) theory, the lowest order (A2 ) perturbation theory (PT) and a recently proposed Green's function (GF) method by Shukla and Hiibschle. The latter method includes certain anharmonic effects to all orders of anharmonicity. In order to determine the effect of the range of the interatomic interaction upon the anharmonic contributions to the MSD we have carried out our calculations for a Lennard-Jones (L-J) solid in the nearest-neighbour (NN) and next-nearest neighbour (NNN) approximations. These results can be presented in dimensionless units but if the NN and NNN results are to be compared with each other they must be converted to that of a real solid. When this is done for Xe, the QH MSD for the NN and NNN approximations are found to differ from each other by about 2%. For the A2 and GF results this difference amounts to 8% and 7% respectively. For the NN case we have also compared our PT results, which have been calculated exactly, with PT results calculated using a frequency-shift approximation. We conclude that this frequency-shift approximation is a poor approximation. We have calculated the MSD of five alkali metals, five bcc transition metals and seven fcc transition metals. The model potentials we have used include the Morse, modified Morse, and Rydberg potentials. In general the results obtained from the Green's function method are in the best agreement with experiment. However, this improvement is mostly qualitative and the values of MSD calculated from the Green's function method are not in much better agreement with the experimental data than those calculated from the QH theory. We have calculated the phonon dispersion curves (PDC's) of Na and Cu, using the 4 parameter modified Morse potential. In the case of Na, our results for the PDC's are in poor agreement with experiment. In the case of eu, the agreement between the tlleory and experiment is much better and in addition the results for the PDC's calclliated from the GF method are in better agreement with experiment that those obtained from the QH theory.

La diversité génétique du mulet à cornes dans un contexte de conservation : rôle des interconnexions et des barrières sur la dispersion des individus

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Les impacts de la dispersion historique sur la variabilité génétique à différentes échelles spatiales : connaître l'histoire pour mieux comprendre le présent.

La variabilité génétique actuelle est influencée par une combinaison complexe de variables historiques et contemporaines. Dès lors, une interprétation juste de l’impact des processus actuels nécessite une compréhension profonde des processus historiques ayant influencé la variabilité génétique. En se basant sur la prémisse que des populations proches devraient partager une histoire commune récente, nombreuses études, effectuées à petite échelle spatiale, ne prennent pas en considération l’effet potentiel des processus historiques. Cette thèse avait pour but de vérifier la validité de cette prémisse en estimant l’effet de la dispersion historique à grande et à petite échelle spatiale. Le premier volet de cette thèse avait pour but d’évaluer l’impact de la dispersion historique sur la répartition des organismes à grande échelle spatiale. Pour ce faire, les moules d’eau douce du genre flotteurs (Pyganodon spp.) ont servies de modèle biologique. Les moules d'eau douce se dispersent principalement au stade larvaire en tant que parasites des poissons. Une série de modèles nuls ont été développés pour évaluer la co-occurrence entre des parasites et leurs hôtes potenitels. Les associations distinctes du flotteur de Terre-Neuve (P. fragilis) avec des espèces de poissons euryhalins permettent d’expliquer sa répartition. Ces associations distinctes ont également pu favoriser la différenciation entre le flotteur de Terre-Neuve et son taxon soeur : le flotteur de l’Est (P. cataracta). Cette étude a démontré les effets des associations biologiques historiques sur les répartitions à grande échelle spatiale. Le second volet de cette thèse avait pour but d’évaluer l’impact de la dispersion historique sur la variabilité génétique, à petite échelle spatiale. Cette fois, différentes populations de crapet de roche (Ambloplites rupestris) et de crapet soleil (Lepomis gibbosus), dans des drainages adjacents ont servies de modèle biologique. Les différences frappantes observées entre les deux espèces suggèrent des patrons de colonisation opposés. La faible diversité génétique observée en amont des drainages et la forte différenciation observée entre les drainages pour les populations de crapet de roche suggèrent que cette espèce aurait colonisé les drainages à partir d'une source en aval. Au contraire, la faible différenciation et la forte diversité génétique observées en amont des drainages pour les populations de crapet soleil suggèrent une colonisation depuis l’amont, induisant du même coup un faux signal de flux génique entre les drainages. La présente étude a démontré que la dispersion historique peut entraver la capacité d'estimer la connectivité actuelle, à petite échelle spatiale, invalidant ainsi la prémisse testée dans cette thèse. Les impacts des processus historiques sur la variabilité génétique ne sont pas faciles à démontrer. Le troisième volet de cette thèse avait pour but de développer une méthode permettant de les détecter. La méthode proposée est très souple et favorise la comparaison entre la variabilité génétique et plusieurs hypothèses de dispersion. La méthode pourrait donc être utilisée pour comparer des hypothèses de dispersion basées sur le paysage historique et sur le paysage actuel et ainsi permettre l’évaluation des impacts historiques et contemporains sur la variabilité génétique. Les performances de la méthode sont présentées pour plusieurs scénarios de simulations, d’une complexité croissante. Malgré un impact de la différentiation globale, du nombre d’individus ou du nombre de loci échantillonné, la méthode apparaît hautement efficace. Afin d’illustrer le potentiel de la méthode, deux jeux de données empiriques très contrastés, publiés précédemment, ont été ré analysés. Cette thèse a démontré les impacts de la dispersion historique sur la variabilité génétique à différentes échelles spatiales. Les effets historiques potentiels doivent être pris en considération avant d’évaluer les impacts des processus écologiques sur la variabilité génétique. Bref, il faut intégrer l’évolution à l’écologie.

Dispersion de la couleur J-K des naines brunes de type L2

Les naines brunes sont des objets de masse intermédiaire entre celle nécessaire pour former une étoile et celle d'une planète. Les naines brunes sont classées, des plus chaudes aux plus froides, en types spectraux L, T et Y, caractérisés par une couleur J-K moyenne qui varie de 1.2 à 1.8 pour les étoiles de type L0 à L8, et de 1.8 à -0.5 pour les étoiles de type L8 à T8. Par ailleurs, la couleur J-K de certains types spectraux présente une dispersion de l'ordre d'une magnitude. Ce travail tente de faire la lumière sur la nature de cette grande dispersion, présente dans la couleur J-K des naines brunes de type L2. Les observations ont été réalisées avec la caméra infrarouge CPAPIR à l'Observatoire du Mont Mégantic. Nous avons ciblé un total de 22 naines brunes qui ont été observées en K, et 12 parmi celles-ci ont aussi été observées en J. Chacune des naines brunes a été calibrée à l'aide d'une étoile standard, ce qui rend nos résultats indépendants des données 2MASS. Nous observons une corrélation entre les couleurs J-K de nos données et de celles de 2MASS. Cela montre que la grande dispersion en J-K de nos données et des données 2MASS est due aux propriétés physiques des naines brunes et non à des erreurs observationnelles. L'examen des facteurs qui pourraient être responsables de cette grande dispersion, soit la classification spectrale, la métallicité, la gravité de surface, une binarité non résolue, la présence de nuages de condensats et la rotation, montre que la gravité de surface serait le facteur le plus susceptible d'être responsable de la grande dispersion des valeurs de J-K.