Analysis for the use of cumulative plots for travel time estimation on signalized network

This paper provides fundamental understanding for the use of cumulative plots for travel time estimation on signalized urban networks. Analytical modeling is performed to generate cumulative plots based on the availability of data: a) Case-D, for detector data only; b) Case-DS, for detector data and signal timings; and c) Case-DSS, for detector data, signal timings and saturation flow rate. The empirical study and sensitivity analysis based on simulation experiments have observed the consistency in performance for Case-DS and Case-DSS, whereas, for Case-D the performance is inconsistent. Case-D is sensitive to detection interval and signal timings within the interval. When detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycle then it has low accuracy and low reliability. Whereas, for detection interval around 1.5 times signal cycle both accuracy and reliability are high.

Automated gathering of Web information: An in-depth examination of agents interacting with search engines

The Web has become a worldwide repository of information which individuals, companies, and organizations utilize to solve or address various information problems. Many of these Web users utilize automated agents to gather this information for them. Some assume that this approach represents a more sophisticated method of searching. However, there is little research investigating how Web agents search for online information. In this research, we first provide a classification for information agent using stages of information gathering, gathering approaches, and agent architecture. We then examine an implementation of one of the resulting classifications in detail, investigating how agents search for information on Web search engines, including the session, query, term, duration and frequency of interactions. For this temporal study, we analyzed three data sets of queries and page views from agents interacting with the Excite and AltaVista search engines from 1997 to 2002, examining approximately 900,000 queries submitted by over 3,000 agents. Findings include: (1) agent sessions are extremely interactive, with sometimes hundreds of interactions per second (2) agent queries are comparable to human searchers, with little use of query operators, (3) Web agents are searching for a relatively limited variety of information, wherein only 18% of the terms used are unique, and (4) the duration of agent-Web search engine interaction typically spans several hours. We discuss the implications for Web information agents and search engines.

Representational change and strategy use in children's number line estimation during the first years of primary school

Background: The objective of this study was to scrutinize number line estimation behaviors displayed by children in mathematics classrooms during the first three years of schooling. We extend existing research by not only mapping potential logarithmic-linear shifts but also provide a new perspective by studying in detail the estimation strategies of individual target digits within a number range familiar to children. Methods: Typically developing children (n = 67) from Years 1 – 3 completed a number-to-position numerical estimation task (0-20 number line). Estimation behaviors were first analyzed via logarithmic and linear regression modeling. Subsequently, using an analysis of variance we compared the estimation accuracy of each digit, thus identifying target digits that were estimated with the assistance of arithmetic strategy. Results: Our results further confirm a developmental logarithmic-linear shift when utilizing regression modeling; however, uniquely we have identified that children employ variable strategies when completing numerical estimation, with levels of strategy advancing with development. Conclusion: In terms of the existing cognitive research, this strategy factor highlights the limitations of any regression modeling approach, or alternatively, it could underpin the developmental time course of the logarithmic-linear shift. Future studies need to systematically investigate this relationship and also consider the implications for educational practice.

Comparison of three-dimensional profiles over time

In this paper, we describe an analysis for data collected on a three-dimensional spatial lattice with treatments applied at the horizontal lattice points. Spatial correlation is accounted for using a conditional autoregressive model. Observations are defined as neighbours only if they are at the same depth. This allows the corresponding variance components to vary by depth. We use the Markov chain Monte Carlo method with block updating, together with Krylov subspace methods, for efficient estimation of the model. The method is applicable to both regular and irregular horizontal lattices and hence to data collected at any set of horizontal sites for a set of depths or heights, for example, water column or soil profile data. The model for the three-dimensional data is applied to agricultural trial data for five separate days taken roughly six months apart in order to determine possible relationships over time. The purpose of the trial is to determine a form of cropping that leads to less moist soils in the root zone and beyond.We estimate moisture for each date, depth and treatment accounting for spatial correlation and determine relationships of these and other parameters over time.

Estimation on disease burden related to hepatitis B virus infection in Shandong province of China [山东省乙型肝炎病毒感染所致相关疾病的疾病负担研究]

Objective: To comprehensively measure the burden of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer in Shandong province, using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to estimate the disease burden attribute to hepatitis B virus (HBV)infection. Methods: Based on the mortality data of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer derived from the third National Sampling Retrospective Survey for Causes of Death during 2004 and 2005, the incidence data of hepatitis B and the prevalence and the disability weights of liver cancer gained from the Shandong Cancer Prevalence Sampling Survey in 2007, we calculated the years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and DALYs of three diseases following the procedures developed for the global burden of disease (GBD) study to ensure the comparability. Results: The total burden for hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were 211 616 (39 377 YLLs and 172 239 YLDs), 16 783 (13 497 YLLs and 3286 YLDs) and 247 795 (240 236 YLLs and 7559 YLDs) DALYs in 2005 respectively, and men were 2.19, 2.36 and 3.16 times as that for women, respectively in Shandong province. The burden for hepatitis B was mainly because of disability (81.39%). However, most burden on liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were due to premature death (80.42% and 96.95%). The burden of each patient related to hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were 4.8, 13.73 and 11.11 respectively. Conclusion: Hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer caused considerable burden to the people living in Shandong province, indicating that the control of hepatitis B virus infection would bring huge potential benefits.

Estimation on the mortality and disease burden attributed to selected risk factors in Shandong province [山东省主要危险因素的归因死亡和疾病负担分析]

Objective: To determine the major health related risk factors and provide evidence for policy-making,using health burden analysis on selected factors among general population from Shandong province. Methods: Based on data derived from the Third Death of Cause Sampling Survey in Shandong. Years of life lcrat(YLLs),yearS Iived with disability(YLDs)and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs) were calculated according to the GBD ethodology.Deaths and DALYs attributed to the selected risk factors were than estimated together with the PAF data from GBD 2001 study.The indirect method was employed to estimate the YLDs. Results: 51.09%of the total dearlls and 31.83%of the total DALYs from the Shandong population were resulted from the 19 selected risk factors.High blood pre.ure,smoking,low fruit and vegetable intake,aleohol consumption,indoor smoke from solid fuels,high cholesterol,urban air pollution, physical inactivity,overweight and obesity and unsafe injections in health care settings were identified as the top 10 risk faetors for mortality which together caused 50.21%of the total deaths.Alcohol use,smoking,high blood pressure,Low fruit and vegetable intake, indoor smoke from solid fuels, overweight and obesity,high cholesterol, physical inactivity,urban air pollution and iron-deficiency anemia were proved as the top 10 risk factors related to disease burden and were responsible for 29.04%of the total DALYs. Conclusion: Alcohol use.smoking and high blood pressure were determined as the major risk factors which influencing the health of residents in Shandong. The mortality and burden of disease could be reduced significantly if these major factors were effectively under control.

A semi-local method for iterative depth-map refinement

We present an iterative hierarchical algorithm for multi-view stereo. The algorithm attempts to utilise as much contextual information as is available to compute highly accurate and robust depth maps. There are three novel aspects to the approach: 1) firstly we incrementally improve the depth fidelity as the algorithm progresses through the image pyramid; 2) secondly we show how to incorporate visual hull information (when available) to constrain depth searches; and 3) we show how to simultaneously enforce the consistency of the depth-map by continual comparison with neighbouring depth-maps. We show that this approach produces highly accurate depth-maps and, since it is essentially a local method, is both extremely fast and simple to implement.

Combined time- and space-resolved Raman spectrometer for the non-invasive depth profiling of chemical hazards

A time-resolved inverse spatially offset Raman spectrometer was constructed for depth profiling of Raman-active substances under both the lab and the field environments. The system operating principles and performance are discussed along with its advantages relative to traditional continuous wave spatially offset Raman spectrometer. The developed spectrometer uses a combination of space- and time-resolved detection in order to obtain high-quality Raman spectra from substances hidden behind coloured opaque surface layers, such as plastic and garments, with a single measurement. The time-gated spatially offset Raman spectrometer was successfully used to detect concealed explosives and drug precursors under incandescent and fluorescent background light as well as under daylight. The average screening time was 50 s per measurement. The excitation energy requirements were relatively low (20 mW) which makes the probe safe for screening hazardous substances. The unit has been designed with nanosecond laser excitation and gated detection, making it of lower cost and complexity than previous picosecond-based systems, to provide a functional platform for in-line or in-field sensing of chemical substances.

Estimation of energy saving of commercial building by living wall and green facade in sub-tropical climate of Australia

This paper investigates energy saving potential of commercial building by living wall and green façade system using Envelope Thermal Transfer Value (ETTV) equation in Sub-tropical climate of Australia. Energy saving of four commercial buildings was quantified by applying living wall and green façade system to the west facing wall. A field experimental facility, from which temperature data of living wall system was collected, was used to quantify wall temperatures and heat gain under controlled conditions. The experimental parameters were accumulated with extensive data of existing commercial building to quantify energy saving. Based on temperature data of living wall system comprised of Australian native plants, equivalent temperature of living wall system has been computed. Then, shading coefficient of plants in green façade system has been included in mathematical equation and in graphical analysis. To minimize the air-conditioned load of commercial building, therefore to minimize the heat gain of commercial building, an analysis of building heat gain reduction by living wall and green façade system has been performed. Overall, cooling energy performance of commercial building before and after living wall and green façade system application has been examined. The quantified energy saving showed that only living wall system on opaque part of west facing wall can save 8-13 % of cooling energy consumption where as only green façade system on opaque part of west facing wall can save 9.5-18% cooling energy consumption of commercial building. Again, green façade system on fenestration system on west facing wall can save 28-35 % of cooling energy consumption where as combination of both living wall on opaque part of west facing wall and green façade on fenestration system on west facing wall can save 35-40% cooling energy consumption of commercial building in sub-tropical climate of Australia.

Integrated approach for HP-LNG pump diagnosis and prognostics based on health state probability estimation

This paper presents an innovative prognostics model based on health state probability estimation embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. To employ an appropriate classifier for health state probability estimation in the proposed prognostic model, the comparative intelligent diagnostic tests were conducted using five different classifiers applied to the progressive fault levels of three faults in HP-LNG pump. Two sets of impeller-rubbing data were employed for the prediction of pump remnant life based on estimation of discrete health state probability using an outstanding capability of SVM and a feature selection technique. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

Change Point Estimation in Monitoring Survival Time

Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Volume estimation from multiplanar 2D ultrasound images using a remote electromagnetic position and orientation sensor

A system is described for calculating volume from a sequence of multiplanar 2D ultrasound images. Ultrasound images are captured using a video digitising card (Hauppauge Win/TV card) installed in a personal computer, and regions of interest transformed into 3D space using position and orientation data obtained from an electromagnetic device (Polbemus, Fastrak). The accuracy of the system was assessed by scanning 10 water filled balloons (13-141 ml), 10 kidneys (147  200 ml) and 16 fetal livers (8  37 ml) in water using an Acuson 128XP/10 (5 MHz curvilinear probe). Volume was calculated using the ellipsoid, planimetry, tetrahedral and ray tracing methods and compared with the actual volume measured by weighing (balloons) and water displacement (kidneys and livers). The mean percentage error for the ray tracing method was 0.9 ± 2.4%, 2.7 ± 2.3%, 6.6 ± 5.4% for balloons, kidneys and livers, respectively. So far the system has been used clinically to scan fetal livers and lungs, neonate brain ventricles and adult prostate glands.

In vitro estimation of foetal liver volume using ultrasound, x-ray computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging

Sixteen formalin-fixed foetal livers were scanned in vitro using a new system for estimating volume from a sequence of multiplanar 2D ultrasound images. Three different scan techniques were used (radial, parallel and slanted) and four volume estimation algorithms (ellipsoid, planimetry, tetrahedral and ray tracing). Actual liver volumes were measured by water displacement. Twelve of the sixteen livers also received x-ray computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance (MR) scans and the volumes were calculated using voxel counting and planimetry. The percentage accuracy (mean ± SD) was 5.3 ± 4.7%, −3.1 ± 9.6% and −0.03 ± 9.7% for ultrasound (radial scans, ray volumes), MR and CT (voxel counting) respectively. The new system may be useful for accurately estimating foetal liver volume in utero.

Accuracy of rate estimation using relaxed-clock models with a critical focus on the early metazoan radiation

In recent years, a number of phylogenetic methods have been developed for estimating molecular rates and divergence dates under models that relax the molecular clock constraint by allowing rate change throughout the tree. These methods are being used with increasing frequency, but there have been few studies into their accuracy. We tested the accuracy of several relaxed-clock methods (penalized likelihood and Bayesian inference using various models of rate change) using nucleotide sequences simulated on a nine-taxon tree. When the sequences evolved with a constant rate, the methods were able to infer rates accurately, but estimates were more precise when a molecular clock was assumed. When the sequences evolved under a model of autocorrelated rate change, rates were accurately estimated using penalized likelihood and by Bayesian inference using lognormal and exponential models of rate change, while other models did not perform as well. When the sequences evolved under a model of uncorrelated rate change, only Bayesian inference using an exponential rate model performed well. Collectively, the results provide a strong recommendation for using the exponential model of rate change if a conservative approach to divergence time estimation is required. A case study is presented in which we use a simulation-based approach to examine the hypothesis of elevated rates in the Cambrian period, and it is found that these high rate estimates might be an artifact of the rate estimation method. If this bias is present, then the ages of metazoan divergences would be systematically underestimated. The results of this study have implications for studies of molecular rates and divergence dates.

Accounting for calibration uncertainty in phylogenetic estimation of evolutionary divergence times

The estimation of phylogenetic divergence times from sequence data is an important component of many molecular evolutionary studies. There is now a general appreciation that the procedure of divergence dating is considerably more complex than that initially described in the 1960s by Zuckerkandl and Pauling (1962, 1965). In particular, there has been much critical attention toward the assumption of a global molecular clock, resulting in the development of increasingly sophisticated techniques for inferring divergence times from sequence data. In response to the documentation of widespread departures from clocklike behavior, a variety of local- and relaxed-clock methods have been proposed and implemented. Local-clock methods permit different molecular clocks in different parts of the phylogenetic tree, thereby retaining the advantages of the classical molecular clock while casting off the restrictive assumption of a single, global rate of substitution (Rambaut and Bromham 1998; Yoder and Yang 2000).