Spare non-occupational HIV post-exposure prophylaxis by active contacting and testing of the source person.

OBJECTIVE: HIV-1 post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) is frequently prescribed after exposure to source persons with an undetermined HIV serostatus. To reduce unnecessary use of PEP, we implemented a policy including active contacting of source persons and the availability of free, anonymous HIV testing ('PEP policy'). METHODS: All consultations for potential non-occupational HIV exposures i.e. outside the medical environment) were prospectively recorded. The impact of the PEP policy on PEP prescription and costs was analysed and modelled. RESULTS: Among 146 putative exposures, 47 involved a source person already known to be HIV positive and 23 had no indication for PEP. The remaining 76 exposures involved a source person of unknown HIV serostatus. Of 33 (43.4%) exposures for which the source person could be contacted and tested, PEP was avoided in 24 (72.7%), initiated and discontinued in seven (21.2%), and prescribed and completed in two (6.1%). In contrast, of 43 (56.6%) exposures for which the source person could not be tested, PEP was prescribed in 35 (81.4%), P < 0.001. Upon modelling, the PEP policy allowed a 31% reduction of cost for management of exposures to source persons of unknown HIV serostatus. The policy was cost-saving for HIV prevalence of up to 70% in the source population. The availability of all the source persons for testing would have reduced cost by 64%. CONCLUSION: In the management of non-occupational HIV exposures, active contacting and free, anonymous testing of source persons proved feasible. This policy resulted in a decrease in prescription of PEP, proved to be cost-saving, and presumably helped to avoid unnecessary toxicity and psychological stress.

Aggregation and errors in management accounting

Il est important pour les entreprises de compresser les informations détaillées dans des sets d'information plus compréhensibles. Au chapitre 1, je résume et structure la littérature sur le sujet « agrégation d'informations » en contrôle de gestion. Je récapitule l'analyse coûts-bénéfices que les comptables internes doivent considérer quand ils décident des niveaux optimaux d'agrégation d'informations. Au-delà de la perspective fondamentale du contenu d'information, les entreprises doivent aussi prendre en considération des perspectives cogni- tives et comportementales. Je développe ces aspects en faisant la part entre la comptabilité analytique, les budgets et plans, et la mesure de la performance. Au chapitre 2, je focalise sur un biais spécifique qui se crée lorsque les informations incertaines sont agrégées. Pour les budgets et plans, des entreprises doivent estimer les espérances des coûts et des durées des projets, car l'espérance est la seule mesure de tendance centrale qui est linéaire. A la différence de l'espérance, des mesures comme le mode ou la médiane ne peuvent pas être simplement additionnés. En considérant la forme spécifique de distributions des coûts et des durées, l'addition des modes ou des médianes résultera en une sous-estimation. Par le biais de deux expériences, je remarque que les participants tendent à estimer le mode au lieu de l'espérance résultant en une distorsion énorme de l'estimati¬on des coûts et des durées des projets. Je présente également une stratégie afin d'atténuer partiellement ce biais. Au chapitre 3, j'effectue une étude expérimentale pour comparer deux approches d'esti¬mation du temps qui sont utilisées en comptabilité analytique, spécifiquement « coûts basés sur les activités (ABC) traditionnelles » et « time driven ABC » (TD-ABC). Au contraire des affirmations soutenues par les défenseurs de l'approche TD-ABC, je constate que cette dernière n'est pas nécessairement appropriée pour les calculs de capacité. Par contre, je démontre que le TD-ABC est plus approprié pour les allocations de coûts que l'approche ABC traditionnelle. - It is essential for organizations to compress detailed sets of information into more comprehensi¬ve sets, thereby, establishing sharp data compression and good decision-making. In chapter 1, I review and structure the literature on information aggregation in management accounting research. I outline the cost-benefit trade-off that management accountants need to consider when they decide on the optimal levels of information aggregation. Beyond the fundamental information content perspective, organizations also have to account for cognitive and behavi¬oral perspectives. I elaborate on these aspects differentiating between research in cost accounti¬ng, budgeting and planning, and performance measurement. In chapter 2, I focus on a specific bias that arises when probabilistic information is aggregated. In budgeting and planning, for example, organizations need to estimate mean costs and durations of projects, as the mean is the only measure of central tendency that is linear. Different from the mean, measures such as the mode or median cannot simply be added up. Given the specific shape of cost and duration distributions, estimating mode or median values will result in underestimations of total project costs and durations. In two experiments, I find that participants tend to estimate mode values rather than mean values resulting in large distortions of estimates for total project costs and durations. I also provide a strategy that partly mitigates this bias. In the third chapter, I conduct an experimental study to compare two approaches to time estimation for cost accounting, i.e., traditional activity-based costing (ABC) and time-driven ABC (TD-ABC). Contrary to claims made by proponents of TD-ABC, I find that TD-ABC is not necessarily suitable for capacity computations. However, I also provide evidence that TD-ABC seems better suitable for cost allocations than traditional ABC.

Nutrition in cardiovascular disease: salt in hypertension and heart failure.

There is much evidence for a causal relationship between salt intake and blood pressure (BP). The current salt intake in many countries is between 9 and 12 g/day. A reduction in salt intake to the recommended level of 5-6 g/day lowers BP in both hypertensive and normotensive individuals. A further reduction to 3-4 g/day has a much greater effect. Prospective studies and outcome trials have demonstrated that a lower salt intake is associated with a decreased risk of cardiovascular disease. Increasing evidence also suggests that a high salt intake is directly related to left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) independent of BP. Both raised BP and LVH are important risk factors for heart failure. It is therefore possible that a lower salt intake could prevent the development of heart failure. In patients who already have heart failure, a high salt intake aggravates the retention of salt and water, thereby exacerbating heart failure symptoms and progression of the disease. A lower salt intake plays an important role in the management of heart failure. Despite this, currently there is no clear evidence on how far salt intake should be reduced in heart failure. Our personal view is that these patients should reduce their salt intake to <5 g/day, i.e. the maximum intake recommended by the World Health Organisation for all adults. If salt intake is successfully reduced, there may well be a need for a reduction in diuretic dosage.

Parents' willingness to pay for diminishing children's pain during blood sampling.

BACKGROUND: Blood sampling is a frequent medical procedure, very often considered as a stressful experience by children. Local anesthetics have been developed, but are expensive and not reimbursed by insurance companies in our country. We wanted to assess parents' willingness to pay (WTP) for this kind of drug. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Over 6 months, all parents of children presenting for general (GV) or specialized visit (SV) with blood sampling. WTP was assessed through three scenarios [avoiding blood sampling (ABS), using the drug on prescription (PD), or over the counter (OTC)], with a payment card system randomized to ascending or descending order of prices (AO or DO). RESULTS: Fifty-six responses were collected (34 GV, 22 SV, 27 AO and 29 DO), response rate 40%. Response distribution was wide, with median WTP of 40 for ABS, 25 for PD, 10 for OTC, which is close to the drug's real price. Responses were similar for GV and SV. Median WTP amounted to 0.71, 0.67, 0.20% of respondents' monthly income for the three scenarios, respectively, with a maximum at 10%. CONCLUSIONS: Assessing parents' WTP in an outpatient setting is difficult, with wide result distribution, but median WTP is close to the real drug price. This finding could be used to promote insurance coverage for this drug.

The Potential of Friction as a Tool for Winter Maintenance, TR-400, 1998

It is intuitively obvious that snow or ice on a road surface will make that surface more slippery and thus more hazardous. However, quantifying this slipperiness by measuring the friction between the road surface and a vehicle is rather difficult. If such friction readings could be easily made, they might provide a means to control winter maintenance activities more efficiently than at present. This study is a preliminary examination of the possibility of using friction as an operational tool in winter maintenance. In particular, the relationship of friction to traffic volume and speed, and accident rates is examined, and the current lack of knowledge in this area is outlined. The state of the art of friction measuring techniques is reviewed. A series of experiments whereby greater knowledge of how friction deteriorates during a storm and is restored by treatment is proposed. The relationship between plowing forces and the ice-pavement bond strength is discussed. The challenge of integrating all these potential sources of information into a useful final product is presented together with a potential approach. A preliminary cost-benefit analysis of friction measuring devices is performed and suggests that considerable savings might be realized if certain assumptions should hold true. The steps required to bring friction from its current state as a research tool to full deployment as an operational tool are presented and discussed. While much remains to be done in this regard, it is apparent that friction could be an extremely effective operational tool in winter maintenance activities of the future.

Improvement of cardiovascular risk prediction: time to review current knowledge, debates, and fundamentals on how to assess test characteristics.

Cardiovascular risk assessment might be improved with the addition of emerging, new tests derived from atherosclerosis imaging, laboratory tests or functional tests. This article reviews relative risk, odds ratios, receiver-operating curves, posttest risk calculations based on likelihood ratios, the net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination. This serves to determine whether a new test has an added clinical value on top of conventional risk testing and how this can be verified statistically. Two clinically meaningful examples serve to illustrate novel approaches. This work serves as a review and basic work for the development of new guidelines on cardiovascular risk prediction, taking into account emerging tests, to be proposed by members of the 'Taskforce on Vascular Risk Prediction' under the auspices of the Working Group 'Swiss Atherosclerosis' of the Swiss Society of Cardiology in the future.

Genetic evidence for female-biased dispersal and gene flow in a polygynous primate.

Many models of sex-biased dispersal predict that the direction of sex-bias depends upon a species' mating system. In agreement with this, almost all polygynous mammals show male-biased dispersal whereas largely monogamous birds show female-biased dispersal (FBD). The hamadryas baboon (Papio hamadryas hamadryas) is polygynous and so dispersal is predicted to be male biased, as is found in all other baboon subspecies, but there are conflicting field data showing both female and male dispersal. Using 19 autosomal genetic markers genotyped in baboons from four Saudi Arabian populations, we found strong evidence for FBD in post-dispersal adults but not, as expected, in pre-dispersal infants and young juveniles, when we compared male and female: population structure (F(st)), inbreeding (F(is)), relatedness (r), and the mean assignment index (mAIc). Furthermore, we found evidence for female-biased gene flow as population genetic structure (F(st)), was about four times higher for the paternally inherited Y, than for either autosomal markers or for maternally inherited mtDNA. These results contradict the direction of sex-bias predicted by the mating system and show that FBD has evolved recently from an ancestral state of male-biased dispersal. We suggest that the cost-benefit balance of dispersal to males and females is tightly linked to the unique hierarchical social structure of hamadryas baboons and that dispersal and social organization have coevolved.

Alternatives for Rural Roads, HR-242, 1989

Much of the nation's rural road system is deteriorating. Many of the roads were built in the 1880s and 1890s with the most recent upgrading done in the 1940s and 1950s. Consequently, many roads and bridges do not have the capacity for the increased loads, speed, and frequent use of today's vehicles. Because of the growing demands and a dense county road system (inherited from the land settlement policies two centuries ago), revenue available to counties is inadequate to upgrade andmaintain the present system. Either revenue must be increased - an unpopular option - or costs must be reduced. To examine cost-saving options, Iowa State University conducted a study of roads and bridges in three 100 square mile areas in Iowa: • A suburban area • A rural area with a large number of paved roads, few bridges, and a high agricultural tax base and •A more rural area in a hilly terrain with many bridges and gravel roads, and a low agricultural tax base. A cost-benefit analysis was made on the present road system in these areas on such options as abandoning roads with limited use, converting some to private drives, and reducing maintenance on these types of roads. In only a few instances does abandonment of low traffic volume roads produce cost savings for counties and abutting land owners that exceed the additional travel costs to the public. In this study, the types of roads that produced net savings when abandoned were: • A small percentage (less than 5 percent) of the nonpaved county roads in the suburban area. However, net savings were very small. Cost savings from reducing the county road system in urbanized areas are very limited. • Slightly more than 5 percent of the nonpaved county roads in the most rural area that had a small number of paved county roads. • More than 12 percent of the nonpaved roads in the rural area that had a relatively large number of paved county and state roads. Converting low-volume roads to low-maintenance or Service B roads produces the largest savings of all solutions considered. However, future bridge deterioration and county liability on Service B roads are potential problems. Converting low-volume roads to private drives also produces large net savings. Abandonment of deadend roads results in greater net savings than continuous roads. However, this strategy shifts part of the public maintenance burden to land owners. Land owners also then become responsible for accident liability. Reconstruction to bring selected bridges with weight restrictions up to legal load limits reduces large truck and tractor-wagon mileage and costs. However, the reconstruction costs exceeded the reduction in travel costs. Major sources of vehicle miles on county roads are automobiles used for household purposes and pickup truck travel for farm purposes. Farm-related travel represents a relatively small percent of total travel miles, but a relatively high percentage of total travel costs.

Bentonite Treatment for Economical Dust Reduction on Limestone Surfaced Secondary Roads, HR-351, 1995

This research project was directed at laboratory and field evaluation of sodium montmorillonite clay (Bentonite) as a dust palliative for limestone surfaced secondary roads. It was postulated that the electrically charged surfaces (negative) of the clay particles could interact with the charged surfaces (positive) of the limestone and act as a bonding agent to agglomerate fine (-#200) particulates, and also to bond the fine particulates to larger (+#200) limestone particles. One mile test roads were constructed in Tama, Appanoose, and Hancock counties in Iowa using Bentonite treatment levels (by weight of aggregate) ranging from 3.0 to 12.0%. Construction was accomplished by adding dry Bentonite to the surfacing material and then dry road mixing. The soda ash/water solution (dispersing agent) was spray applied and the treated surfacing material wet mixed by motor graders to a consistency of 2 to 3 inch slump concrete. Two motor graders working in tandem provided rapid mixing. Following wet mixing the material was surface spread and compacted by local traffic. Quantitative and qualitative periodic evaluations and testing of the test roads was conducted with respect to dust generation, crust development, roughness, and braking characteristics. As the Bentonite treatment level increased dust generation decreased. From a cost/benefit standpoint, an optimum level of treatment is about 8% (by weight of aggregate). For roads with light traffic, one application at this treatment level resulted in a 60-70% average dust reduction in the first season, 40-50% in the second season, and 20-30% in the third season. Crust development was rated at two times better than untreated control sections. No discernible trend was evident with respect to roughness. There was no evident difference in any of the test sections with respect to braking distance and braking handling characteristics, under wet surface conditions compared to the control sections. Chloride treatments are more effective in dust reduction in the short term (3-4 months). Bentonite treatment is capable of dust reduction over the long term (2-3 seasons). Normal maintenance blading operations can be used on Bentonite treated areas. Soda ash dispersed Bentonite treatment is estimated to be more than twice as cost effective per percent dust reduction than conventional chloride treatments, with respect to time. However, the disadvantage is that there is not the initial dramatic reduction in dust generation as with the chloride treatment. Although dust is reduced significantly after treatment there is still dust being generated. Video evidence indicates that the dust cloud in the Bentonite treated sections does not rise as high, or spread as wide as the cloud in the untreated section. It also settles faster than the cloud in the untreated section. This is considered important for driving safety of following traffic, and for nuisance dust invasion of residences and residential areas. The Bentonite appears to be functioning as a bonding agent.

Impact de la prophylaxie hormonale sur les fractures du fémur proximal des femmes postménopausiques: une étude de simulation. [Impact of hormonal prevention on fractures of the proximal femur in postmenopausal women: a simulation study].

A simulation model of the effects of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on hip fractures and their consequences is based on a population of 100,000 post-menopausal women. This cohort is confronted with literature derived probabilities of cancers (endometrium or breast, which are contra-indications to HRT), hip fracture, disability requiring nursing home or home care, and death. Administration of HRT for life prevents 55,5% of hip fractures, 22,6% of years with home care and 4,4% of years in nursing homes. If HRT is administered for 15 years, these results are 15,5%, 10% and 2,2%, respectively. A slight gain in life expectancy is observed for both durations of HRT. The net financial loss in the simulated population is 222 million Swiss Francs (cost/benefit ratio 1.25) for lifelong administration of HRT, and 153 million Swiss Francs (cost/benefit ratio 1.42) if HRT is administered during 15 years.

Population based screening - the difficulty of how to do more good than harm and how to achieve it.

Screening people without symptoms of disease is an attractive idea. Screening allows early detection of disease or elevated risk of disease, and has the potential for improved treatment and reduction of mortality. The list of future screening opportunities is set to grow because of the refinement of screening techniques, the increasing frequency of degenerative and chronic diseases, and the steadily growing body of evidence on genetic predispositions for various diseases. But how should we decide on the diseases for which screening should be done and on recommendations for how it should be implemented? We use the examples of prostate cancer and genetic screening to show the importance of considering screening as an ongoing population-based intervention with beneficial and harmful effects, and not simply the use of a test. Assessing whether screening should be recommended and implemented for any named disease is therefore a multi-dimensional task in health technology assessment. There are several countries that already use established processes and criteria to assess the appropriateness of screening. We argue that the Swiss healthcare system needs a nationwide screening commission mandated to conduct appropriate evidence-based evaluation of the impact of proposed screening interventions, to issue evidence-based recommendations, and to monitor the performance of screening programmes introduced. Without explicit processes there is a danger that beneficial screening programmes could be neglected and that ineffective, and potentially harmful, screening procedures could be introduced.

Endogenous depth of reasoning

We introduce a model of strategic thinking in games of initial response. Unlike standard level-k models, in this framework the player's `depth of reasoning' is endogenously determined, andit can be disentangled from his beliefs over his opponent's cognitive bound. In our approach,individuals act as if they follow a cost-benefit analysis. The depth of reasoning is a function ofthe player's cognitive abilities and his payoffs. The costs are exogenous and represent the gametheoretical sophistication of the player; the benefit instead is related to the game payoffs. Behavioris in turn determined by the individual's depth of reasoning and his beliefs about the reasoningprocess of the opponent. Thus, in our framework, payoffs not only affect individual choices inthe traditional sense, but they also shape the cognitive process itself. Our model delivers testableimplications on players' chosen actions as incentives and opponents change. We then test themodel's predictions with an experiment. We administer different treatments that vary beliefs overpayoffs and opponents, as well as beliefs over opponents' beliefs. The results of this experiment,which are not accounted for by current models of reasoning in games, strongly support our theory.Our approach therefore serves as a novel, unifying framework of strategic thinking that allows forpredictions across games.

Development of a Subgrade Drainage Model for Unpaved Roads, TR-654, 2015

With over 68 thousand miles of gravel roads in Iowa and the importance of these roads within the farm-to-market transportation system, proper water management becomes critical for maintaining the integrity of the roadway materials. However, the build-up of water within the aggregate subbase can lead to frost boils and ultimately potholes forming at the road surface. The aggregate subbase and subgrade soils under these gravel roads are produced with material opportunistically chosen from local sources near the site and, many times, the compositions of these sublayers are far from ideal in terms of proper water drainage with the full effects of this shortcut not being fully understood. The primary objective of this project was to provide a physically-based model for evaluating the drainability of potential subbase and subgrade materials for gravel roads in Iowa. The Richards equation provided the appropriate framework to study the transient unsaturated flow that usually occurs through the subbase and subgrade of a gravel road. From which, we identified that the saturated hydraulic conductivity, Ks, was a key parameter driving the time to drain of subgrade soils found in Iowa, thus being a good proxy variable for accessing roadway drainability. Using Ks, derived from soil texture, we were able to identify potential problem areas in terms of roadway drainage . It was found that there is a threshold for Ks of 15 cm/day that determines if the roadway will drain efficiently, based on the requirement that the time to drain, Td, the surface roadway layer does not exceed a 2-hr limit. Two of the three highest abundant textures (loam and silty clay loam), which cover nearly 60% of the state of Iowa, were found to have average Td values greater than the 2-hr limit. With such a large percentage of the state at risk for the formation of boils due to the soil with relatively low saturated hydraulic conductivity values, it seems pertinent that we propose alternative design and/or maintenance practices to limit the expensive repair work in Iowa. The addition of drain tiles or French mattresses my help address drainage problems. However, before pursuing this recommendation, a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis is needed.

Laparoscopy in the era of enhanced recovery.

Laparoscopy is one of the cornerstones in the surgical revolution and transformed outcome and recovery for various surgical procedures. Even if these changes were widely accepted for basic interventions, like appendectomies and cholecystectomies, laparoscopy still remains challenged for more advanced operations in many aspects. Despite these discussion, there is an overwhelming acceptance in the surgical community that laparoscopy did transform the recovery for several abdominal procedures. The importance of improved peri-operative patient management and its influence on outcome started to become a focus of attention 20 years ago and is now increasingly spreading, as shown by the incoming volume of data on this topic. The enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) concept incorporates simple measures of general management, and requires multidisciplinary collaboration from hospital staff as well as the patient and the relatives. Several studies have demonstrated a significant decrease in postoperative complication rate, length of hospital stay and reduced overall cost. The key elements of success are fluid restriction, a functioning epidural and preoperative carbohydrate intake. With the expansion of laparoscopic techniques, ERAS increasingly incorporates laparoscopic patients, especially in colorectal surgery. However, the precise impact of laparoscopy on ERAS is still not clearly defined. Increasing evidence suggests that laparoscopy itself is an additional ERAS item that should be considered as routine where feasible in order to obtain the best surgical outcomes.

Toimittajaverkoston ja päähankkijan rajapintojen yhdistäminen

Kansainvälisen kaupan ja kanssakäymisen lisääntyminen onpakottanut veturiyritykset verkostoitumaan toisten yritysten kanssa, joustavuuden, tehokkuuden ja kilpailukyvyn parantamiseksi. Tällöin tarvitaan nopeita sähköisen tiedonsiirronvälineitä tilaus- ja toimitusprosesseissa. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli saada kehitysmalli kansainvälisen päähankkijan, järjestelmätoimittajan ja toimittajaverkoston välille sähköisen tiedonsiirron kehittämiseksi sellaiselle tasolle, missä voidaan saavuttaa kokonaiskustannushyöty koko toimittajaketjulle. Tutkimuksen mukaan järjestelmätoimittajan ja päähankkijan sähköinen tiedonsiirto oli valtaosassa tutkituista järjestelmätoimittajista hyvällä tasolla. Monessa verkoston yrityksessä sähköisen tiedonsiirron kehitys oli pysähtynyt järjestelmätoimittajatasolle, eikä sitä ole kehitetty edelleen toimittajaverkostoon päin. Ainoastaan yhden tutkimuksessa mukana olleen järjestelmätoimittajan kehityssuunnitelma vastaa päähankkijan asettamia lähitulevaisuuden tavoitteita sähköisen tiedonsiirron kehittämisestä toimittajaverkostossa. Tutkimuksessa havaittiin, ettei sähköinen tiedonsiirtokehity toimittajaverkostossa, elleivät järjestelmätoimittajat ota suurempaa vastuuta sen kehittämiseksi omassa toimittajaverkostossa. Tutkimustulosten perusteella kaikkien osapuolien päähankkijan, järjestelmätoimittajan ja toimittajaverkoston aktiivinen tuki sähköisen tiedonsiirron kehittämiselle parantaa kokonaiskustannusten hallinnan ja imuohjauksen kautta kilpailukykyä.