Do hospitals react to random demand pressure by early discharges?

This project tries to assess whether hospitals react to random demand pressure by discharging patients earlier than expected. As a matter of fact, combining an unpredictable demand for medical services with limited and, to some extent, fixed medical resources, generates strong incentives to discharge patients earlier than expected when demand is high − increasing the risk of readmission and decreasing the benefit from treatment. This work was conducted as a way to determine whether those incentives actually affect discharging decisions. Analysis of Portuguese hospitals data shows that hospital utilization levels at the time of admission, prior to the admission and post admission do have a negative impact over the length of stay in hospital, although this impact is quantitatively irrelevant. More than that, larger utilization levels have a positive impact over the probability of being discharged at certain days of the week, indicating that an early discharges problem may exist.

Simulation of humidity fields in concrete: experimental validation and parameter estimation

The moisture content in concrete structures has an important influence in their behavior and performance. Several vali-dated numerical approaches adopt the governing equation for relative humidity fields proposed in Model Code 1990/2010. Nevertheless there is no integrative study which addresses the choice of parameters for the simulation of the humidity diffusion phenomenon, particularly in concern to the range of parameters forwarded by Model Code 1990/2010. A software based on a Finite Difference Method Algorithm (1D and axisymmetric cases) is used to perform sensitivity analyses on the main parameters in a normal strength concrete. Then, based on the conclusions of the sensi-tivity analyses, experimental results from nine different concrete compositions are analyzed. The software is used to identify the main material parameters that better fit the experimental data. In general, the model was able to satisfactory fit the experimental results and new correlations were proposed, particularly focusing on the boundary transfer coeffi-cient.

Electromagnetic fields and environmental noise: human health impacts in Serzedelo, Guimarães (Portugal)

The present paper investigates the risks that arise from exposure to noise from powerpoles and powerlines in Serzedelo, in the municipality of Guimarães, in Portugal. This research focused on four guiding questions: Can powerlines cause noise? Do powerlines cause discomfort? Do powerlines cause discomfort due to noise? And can powerlines effect human health? Two groups were the basis of the study: people that were exposed to electromagnetic waves and people that were not. the research pointed to the harmful influence of the presence of powerlines and high-voltage masts in residential areas and the damage to the cells in the human body. This type of environmental noise, which has the spectral content of a low frequency, typically tonal noise and a very high speed of propagation, is a complex source to explain in terms of the health profiles of the human population living in Serzedelo, located in an area that is densely occupied by high voltage powerlines and powerpole.

Nonparametric estimation of time-dependent ROC curves conditional on a continuous covariate

The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.

Discriminação de fitofisionomias de floresta de várzea a partir do algoritmo Iterated Conditional Modes aplicado aos dados SAR/R99 (QUAD-POL/Banda L)

Utilizando-se dados do sensor aerotransportado SAR R99, adquiridos na banda L (1,28 GHz) em amplitude e com quatro polarizações (HH, VV, HV e VH), avaliou-se a distinção de fitofisionomias de floresta de várzea existentes nas Reservas de Desenvolvimento Sustentável Amanã e Mamirauá e áreas adjacentes, com a aplicação do algoritmo Iterated Conditional Modes (ICM) de classificação polarimétrica pontual/contextual. Os resultados mostraram que o uso das distribuições multivariadas em amplitude, conjuntamente com uma banda de textura, produziu classificações de qualidade superior àquelas obtidas com dados polarimétricos uni/bivariados. Esta abordagem permitiu a obtenção de um índice Kappa de 0,8963, discriminando as três classes vegetacionais de interesse, comprovando assim o potencial dos dados do SAR R99 e do algoritmo ICM no mapeamento de florestas de várzea da Amazônia.

Chemical and physical attributes and calcium, magnesium, potassium, and phosphorus in the soil of murundu fields in Brazil

Fields of murundus (FM) are wetlands that provide numerous ecosystem services. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the chemical [organic carbon (OC), P, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Al3+ and H+Al] and physical [texture and bulk density (Bd)] soil attributes and calculate the organic matter (OM) and nutrient stock (P, Ca, Mg, and K) in soils of FM located in the Guapore River basin in Mato Grosso. Thirty-six sampling points were selected, and soil samples were collected from two environments: the murundu and plain area surrounding (PAS). At each sampling point, mini trenches of 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.4 m were opened and disturbed and undisturbed soil samples were collected at depths of 0-0.1, 0.1-0.2, and 0.2-0.4 m. In the Principal Component Analysis the variables H+Al (49%) and OM (4%) were associated with the F1 component and sand content (47%) with the F2 component. The FM had lower pH values and higher concentrations of K+, P, and H+Al than PAS at all depths (p < 0.05). Additionally, FM stocked up to 433, 360, 205, and 11 kg ha-1 of Ca, Mg, K, and P, respectively, for up to a depth of 0.2 m. The murundu stored two times more K and three times more P than that in the PAS. Our results show that the FM has high sand content and Bd greater than 1.5 Mg m-3, high acidity, low OC content, and low nutrient concentrations. Thus, special care must be taken to preserve FM such that human intervention does not trigger environmental imbalances.

Random walk forecast of urban water in Iran under uncertainty

There are two significant reasons for the uncertainties of water demand. On one hand, an evolving technological world is plagued with accelerated change in lifestyles and consumption patterns; and on the other hand, intensifying climate change. Therefore, with an uncertain future, what enables policymakers to define the state of water resources, which are affected by withdrawals and demands? Through a case study based on thirteen years of observation data in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Isfahan province located in Iran, this paper forecasts a wide range of urban water demand possibilities in order to create a portfolio of plans which could be utilized by different water managers. A comparison and contrast of two existing methods are discussed, demonstrating the Random Walk Methodology, which will be referred to as the â On uncertainty pathâ , because it takes the uncertainties into account and can be recommended to managers. This On Uncertainty Path is composed of both dynamic forecasting method and system simulation. The outcomes show the advantage of such methods particularly for places that climate change will aggravate their water scarcity, such as Iran.

Dynamic potential fields for guided exploration in virtual environments

Dynamic potential fields, guided exploration, virtual environments, navigation

Instability of excitation waves induced by electrical fields

Pyrogallol, uncatalyzed bromate oscillator, electric field, pulse wave, Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction, reversal

Extraction of topological structures in 2D and 3D vector fields

feature extraction, feature tracking, vector field visualization

Extraction of vortex structures in 3D flow fields

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2009

Lagrangian methods for visualization and analysis of time-dependent vector fields

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2013

Shapes in vector fields : methods for continuous deformations and surface-based flow visualizations

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2013

Optimal design in the presence of random or fixed block effects

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2014

Approximations and asymptotic expansions for sums of heavy-tailed random variables

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2015