Stochastic structure and individual-tree growth models

The majority of past and current individual-tree growth modelling methodologies have failed to characterise and incorporate structured stochastic components. Rather, they have relied on deterministic predictions or have added an unstructured random component to predictions. In particular, spatial stochastic structure has been neglected, despite being present in most applications of individual-tree growth models. Spatial stochastic structure (also called spatial dependence or spatial autocorrelation) eventuates when spatial influences such as competition and micro-site effects are not fully captured in models. Temporal stochastic structure (also called temporal dependence or temporal autocorrelation) eventuates when a sequence of measurements is taken on an individual-tree over time, and variables explaining temporal variation in these measurements are not included in the model. Nested stochastic structure eventuates when measurements are combined across sampling units and differences among the sampling units are not fully captured in the model. This review examines spatial, temporal, and nested stochastic structure and instances where each has been characterised in the forest biometry and statistical literature. Methodologies for incorporating stochastic structure in growth model estimation and prediction are described. Benefits from incorporation of stochastic structure include valid statistical inference, improved estimation efficiency, and more realistic and theoretically sound predictions. It is proposed in this review that individual-tree modelling methodologies need to characterise and include structured stochasticity. Possibilities for future research are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Monte Carlo evidence on cointegration and causation

The small sample performance of Granger causality tests under different model dimensions, degree of cointegration, direction of causality, and system stability are presented. Two tests based on maximum likelihood estimation of error-correction models (LR and WALD) are compared to a Wald test based on multivariate least squares estimation of a modified VAR (MWALD). In large samples all test statistics perform well in terms of size and power. For smaller samples, the LR and WALD tests perform better than the MWALD test. Overall, the LR test outperforms the other two in terms of size and power in small samples.

Applying linear time-varying constraints to econometric models: With an application to demand systems

When linear equality constraints are invariant through time they can be incorporated into estimation by restricted least squares. If, however, the constraints are time-varying, this standard methodology cannot be applied. In this paper we show how to incorporate linear time-varying constraints into the estimation of econometric models. The method involves the augmentation of the observation equation of a state-space model prior to estimation by the Kalman filter. Numerical optimisation routines are used for the estimation. A simple example drawn from demand analysis is used to illustrate the method and its application.

Testing market efficiency: Evidence from the NFL sports betting market

This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas the profitability of a number of these betting strategies is confirmed by out-of-sample testing, there is some inconsistency among the remaining out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that widely documented inefficiencies in this market tend to dissipate over time.

Reprint of ""Dynamics of the expression of intermediate filaments vimentin and desmin during myofibroblast differentiation after corneal injury""

Previous studies have suggested that abnormal corneal wound healing in patients after photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) is associated with the appearance of myofibroblasts in the stroma between two and four weeks after surgery. The purpose of this study was to examine potential myofibroblast progenitor cells that might express other filament markers prior to completion of the differentiation pathway that yields alpha-smooth muscle actin (SMA)-expressing myofibroblasts associated with haze localized beneath the epithelial basement membrane after PRK. Twenty-four female rabbits that had -9 diopter PRK were sacrificed at 1 week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks or 4 weeks after surgery. Corneal rims were collected, frozen at -80 degrees C, and analyzed by immunocytochemistry using anti-vimentin, anti-desmin, and anti-SMA antibodies. Double immunostaining was performed for the co-localization of SMA with vimentin or desmin with SMA. An increase in vimentin expression in stromal cells is noted as early as 1 week after PRK in the rabbit cornea. As the healing response continues at two or three weeks after surgery, many stromal cells expressing vimentin also begin to express desmin and SMA. By 4 weeks after the surgery most, if not all, myofibroblasts express vimentin, desmin and SMA. Generalized least squares regression analysis showed that there was strong evidence that each of the marker groups differed in expression over time compared to the other two (p < 0.01). Intermediate filaments - vimentin and desmin co-exist in myofibroblasts along with SMA and may play an important role in corneal remodeling after photorefractive keratectomy. The earliest precursors of myofibroblasts destined to express SMA and desmin are detectible by staining for vimentin at 1 week after surgery. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of the expression of intermediate filaments vimentin and desmin during myofibroblast differentiation after corneal injury

Previous studies have suggested that abnormal corneal wound healing in patients after photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) is associated with the appearance of myofibroblasts in the stroma between two and four weeks after surgery. The purpose of this study was to examine potential myofibroblast progenitor cells that might express other filament markers prior to completion of the differentiation pathway that yields a-smooth muscle actin (SMA)-expressing myofibroblasts associated with haze localized beneath the epithelial basement membrane after PRK. Twenty-four female rabbits that had -9 diopter PRK were sacrificed at I week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks or 4 weeks after surgery. Corneal rims were collected, frozen at -80 degrees C, and analyzed by immunocytochemistry using anti-vimentin, anti-desmin, and anti-SMA antibodies. Double immunostaining was performed for the co-localization of SMA with vimentin or desmin with SMA. An increase in vimentin expression in stromal cells is noted as early as 1 week after PRK in the rabbit cornea. As the healing response continues at two or three weeks after surgery, many stromal cells expressing vimentin also begin to express desmin and SMA. By 4 weeks after the surgery most, if not all, myofibroblasts express vimentin, desmin and SMA. Generalized least squares regression analysis showed that there was strong evidence that each of the marker groups differed in expression over time compared to the other two (p < 0.01). Intermediate filaments - vimentin and desmin co-exist in myofibroblasts along with SMA and may play an important role in corneal remodeling after photorefractive keratectomy. The earliest precursors of myofibroblasts destined to express SMA and desmin are detectible by staining for vimentin at I week after surgery. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of ion exchange on strength and slow crack growth of a dental porcelain

Objectives. To determine the effect of ion exchange on slow crack growth (SCG) parameters (n, stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient, and sigma(f0), scaling parameter) and Weibull parameters (m, Weibull modulus, and sigma(0), characteristic strength) of a dental porcelain. Methods. 160 porcelain discs were fabricated according to manufacturer`s instructions, polished through 1 mu m and divided into two groups: GC (control) and GI (submitted to an ion exchange procedure using a KNO(3) paste at 470 degrees C for 15 min). SCG parameters were determined by biaxial flexural strength test in artificial saliva at 37 degrees C using five constant stress rates (n =10). 20 specimens of each group were tested at 1 MPa/s to determine Weibull parameters. The SPT diagram was constructed using the least-squares fit of the strength data versus probability of failure. Results. Mean values of m and sigma(0) (95% confidence interval), n and sigma(f0) (standard deviation) were, respectively: 13.8 (10.1-18.8) and 60.4 (58.5 - 62.2), 24.1 (2.5) and 58.1 (0.01) for GC and 7.4 (5.3 -10.0) and 136.8 (129.1-144.7), 36.7 (7.3) and 127.9 (0.01) for GI. Fracture stresses (MPa) calculated using the SPT diagram for lifetimes of 1 day, 1 year and 10 years (at a 5% failure probability) were, respectively, 31.8, 24.9 and 22.7 for GC and 71.2, 60.6 and 56.9 for GI. Significance. For the porcelain tested, the ion exchange process improved strength and resistance to SCG, however, the material`s reliability decreased. The predicted fracture stress at 5% failure probability for a lifetime of 10 years was also higher for the ion treated group. (C) 009 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A systematic study of the microwave and thermal cure kinetics of the TGDDM/DDS and TGDDM/DDM epoxy-amine resin systems

The microwave and thermal cure processes for the epoxy-amine systems N,N,N',N'-tetraglycidyl-4,4'-diaminodiphenyl methane (TGDDM) with diaminodiphenyl sulfone (DDS) and diaminodiphenyl methane (DDM) have been investigated. The DDS system was studied at a single cure temperature of 433 K and a single stoichiometry of 27 wt% and the DDM system was studied at two stoichiometries, 19 and 32 wt%, and a range temperatures between 373 and 413 K. The best values the kinetic rate parameters for the consumption of amines have been determined by a least squares curve Ft to a model for epoxy-amine cure. The activation energies for the rate parameters for the MY721/DDM system were determined as was the overall activation energy for the cure reaction which was found to be 62 kJ mol(-1). No evidence was found for any specific effect of the microwave radiation on the rate parameters, and the systems were both found to be characterized by a negative substitution effect. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Trade relationships between the Gulf Cooperation Council and the European Union

This paper examines the trade relationship between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the European Union (EU). A simultaneous equation regression model is developed and estimated to assist with the analysis. The regression results, using both the two stage least squares (2SLS) and ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation methods, reveal the existence of feedback effects between the two economic integrations. The results also show that during times of slack in oil prices, the GCC income from its investments overseas helped to finance its imports from the EU.

Xmds: eXtensible multi-dimensional simulator

A software package that efficiently solves a comprehensive range of problems based on coupled complex nonlinear stochastic ODEs and PDEs is outlined. Its input and output syntax is formulated as a subset of XML, thus making a step towards a standard for specifying numerical simulations.

The copolymerization of N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone with 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate

The bulk free radical copolymerization of 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate (HEMA) with N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone (VP) was carried out to low conversions at 50 degreesC, using benzoyl peroxide (BPO) as initiator. The compositions of the copolymers; were determined using C-13 NMR spectroscopy. The conversion of monomers to polymers was studied using FT-NIR spectroscopy in order to predict the extent of conversion of monomer to polymer. From model fits to the composition data, a statistical F-test revealed that die penultimate model describes die copolymerization better than die terminal model. Reactivity ratios were calculated by using a non-linear least squares analysis (NLLS) and r(H) = 8.18 and r(V) = 0.097 were found to be the best fit values of the reactivity ratios for the terminal model and r(HH) = 12.0, r(VH) = 2.20, r(VV) = 0.12 and r(HV) = 0.03 for the penultimate model. Predictions were made for changes in compositions as a function of conversion based upon the terminal and penultimate models.

A systematic study of the microwave and thermal cure kinetics of the DGEBA/DDS and DGEBA/DDM epoxy-amine resin systems

The microwave and thermal cure processes for the epoxy-amine systems (epoxy resin diglycidyl ether of bisphenol A, DGEBA) with 4,4'-diaminodiphenyl sulphone (DDS) and 4,4'-diaminodiphenyl methane (DDM) have been investigated for 1:1 stoichiometries by using fiber-optic FT-NIR spectroscopy. The DGEBA used was in the form of Ciba-Geigy GY260 resin. The DDM system was studied at a single cure temperature of 373 K and a single stoichiometry of 20.94 wt% and the DDS system was studied at a stoichiometry of 24.9 wt% and a range of temperatures between 393 and 443 K. The best values of the kinetic rate parameters for the consumption of amines have been determined by a least squares curve fit to a model for epoxy/amine cure. The activation energies for the polymerization of the DGEBA/DDS system were determined for both cure processes and found to be 66 and 69 kJ mol(-1) for the microwave and thermal cure processes, respectively. No evidence was found for any specific effect of the microwave radiation on the rate parameters, and the systems were both found to be characterized by a negative substitution effect. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

A monolithic smoothing-gap algorithm for contact-impact based on the signed distance function

A new algorithm has been developed for smoothing the surfaces in finite element formulations of contact-impact. A key feature of this method is that the smoothing is done implicitly by constructing smooth signed distance functions for the bodies. These functions are then employed for the computation of the gap and other variables needed for implementation of contact-impact. The smoothed signed distance functions are constructed by a moving least-squares approximation with a polynomial basis. Results show that when nodes are placed on a surface, the surface can be reproduced with an error of about one per cent or less with either a quadratic or a linear basis. With a quadratic basis, the method exactly reproduces a circle or a sphere even for coarse meshes. Results are presented for contact problems involving the contact of circular bodies. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Transações com partes relacionadas : determinantes e impactos no desempenho das empresas

A literatura internacional que analisa os fatores impactantes das transações com partes relacionadas concentra-se no Reino Unido, nos EUA e no continente asiático, sendo o Brasil um ambiente pouco investigado. Esta pesquisa tem por objetivo investigar tanto os fatores impactantes dos contratos com partes relacionadas, quanto o impacto dessas transações no desempenho das empresas brasileiras. Estudos recentes que investigaram as determinantes das transações com partes relacionadas (TPRs), assim como seus impactos no desempenho das empresas, levaram em consideração as vertentes apresentadas por Gordon, Henry e Palia (2004): (a) de conflitos de interesses, as quais apoiam a visão de que as TPRs são danosas para os acionistas minoritários, implicando expropriação da riqueza deles, por parte dos controladores (acionistas majoritários); e (b) transações eficientes que podem ser benéficas às empresas, atendendo, desse modo, aos objetivos econômicos subjacentes delas. Esta pesquisa apoia-se na vertente de conflito de interesses, com base na teoria da agência e no fato de que o cenário brasileiro apresenta ter como característica uma estrutura de propriedade concentrada e ser um país emergente com ambiente legal caracterizado pela baixa proteção aos acionistas minoritários. Para operacionalizar a pesquisa, utilizou-se uma amostra inicial composta de 70 empresas com ações listadas na BM&FBovespa, observando o período de 2010 a 2012. Os contratos relacionados foram identificados e quantificados de duas formas, de acordo com a metodologia aplicada por Kohlbeck e Mayhew (2004; 2010) e Silveira, Prado e Sasso (2009). Como principais determinantes foram investigadas proxies para captar os efeitos dos mecanismos de governança corporativa e ambiente legal, do desempenho das empresas, dos desvios entre direitos sobre controle e direitos sobre fluxo de caixa e do excesso de remuneração executiva. Também foram adicionadas variáveis de controle para isolar as características intrínsecas das firmas. Nas análises econométricas foram estimados os modelos pelos métodos de Poisson, corte transversal agrupado (Pooled-OLS) e logit. A estimação foi feita pelo método dos mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO), e para aumentar a robustez das estimativas econométricas, foram utilizadas variáveis instrumentais estimadas pelo método dos momentos generalizados (MMG). As evidências indicam que os fatores investigados impactam diferentemente as diversas medidas de TPRs das empresas analisadas. Verificou-se que os contratos relacionados, em geral, são danosos às empresas, impactando negativamente o desempenho delas, desempenho este que é aumentado pela presença de mecanismos eficazes de governança corporativa. Os resultados do impacto das medidas de governança corporativa e das características intrínsecas das firmas no desempenho das empresas são robustos à presença de endogeneidade com base nas regressões com variáveis instrumentais.

Efeitos do comitê de auditoria e do conselho fiscal na qualidade da informação contábil no Brasil

Esta dissertação foi desenvolvida com o objetivo de investigar os efeitos da instalação e das características do Conselho Fiscal e do Comitê de Auditoria sobre a qualidade das informações contábeis no Brasil. As características estudadas foram à independência e a qualificação dos membros. As proxies da qualidade da informação contábil foram relevância, tempestividade e conservadorismo condicional. A amostra utilizada foi composta por empresas brasileiras, listadas na Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias e Futuros de São Paulo (BM&FBovespa), com liquidez anual superior a 0,001, no período de 2010 a 2013. Os dados foram coletados na base de dados Comdinheiro e nos Formulários de Referência das empresas, disponíveis no sítio eletrônico da Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) ou BM&FBovespa. Os modelos de qualidade da informação foram adaptados ao recorte metodológico e estimados pelo método dos mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO), com erros-padrão robustos clusterizados por firma. Os resultados revelaram efeitos da instalação dos órgãos analisados sobre as proxies de qualidade da informação contábil. A instalação do Conselho Fiscal impactou positivamente a relevância do patrimônio líquido, enquanto a instalação do Comitê de Auditoria, a relevância do lucro. Esses resultados podem indicar diferenças no direcionamento da atenção desses órgãos: em proteger o patrimônio da entidade para os acionistas (Conselho Fiscal) ou em assegurar números mais confiáveis sobre o desempenho dos administradores (Comitê de Auditoria). Paralelamente, os resultados para a instalação do Conselho Fiscal de forma permanente inferiu força desse órgão como mecanismo de controle, ao invés da instalação somente a pedido dos acionistas. Já, a implementação do Conselho Fiscal Turbinado se mostrou ineficiente no controle da qualidade das informações contábeis. Na análise das características, a independência dos membros do Comitê de Auditoria impactou a relevância do lucro. Ao passo que a independência do Conselho Fiscal impactou a relevância do patrimônio líquido e o conservadorismo condicional (reconhecimento oportuno de perdas econômicas). Essas associações foram mais significantes quando os membros do Conselho Fiscal eram independentes dos acionistas controladores. Na análise da qualificação dos membros, foram encontradas evidências positivas na relação entre a relevância do patrimônio líquido e a maior proporção de membros do Conselho Fiscal com qualificação em Business (Contabilidade, Administração e Economia). O conservadorismo condicional foi maior na medida em que a qualificação dos membros do Conselho Fiscal convergia para a Contabilidade. Os resultados da qualificação dos membros do Comitê de Auditoria demonstraram relevância do lucro na presença de, ao menos, um Contador e na maior proporção de membros com qualificação tanto em Contabilidade como em Business; sendo mais significante conforme a qualificação dos membros do Comitê de Auditoria convergia para a Contabilidade.