Assessing the risks and uncertainties of regional crop potential under changing climate in Finland

Selostus: Arviointi Suomen kasvintuotantopotentiaalin alueellisista riskeistä ja epävarmuuksista ilmaston muuttuessa

Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

The application of agricultural land rating and crop models to CO2 and climate change issues in Northern regions : the Mackenzie Basin case study

Selostus: Viljelyvyöhykkeiden ja kasvumallien soveltaminen ilmastonmuutoksen tutkimisessa: Mackenzien jokialue, Kanada

Northern agriculture : constraints and responses to global climate change

Selostus: Maatalous pohjoisilla äärialueilla: ilmastolliset rajoitukset ja ilmaston muutosten vaikutukset viljelyyn

Plant functional and phylogenetic turnover correlate with climate and land use in the Western Swiss Alps

Understanding the relative importance of historical and environmental processes in the structure and composition of communities is one of the longest quests in ecological research. Increasingly, researchers are relying on the functional and phylogenetic β-diversity of natural communities to provide concise explanations on the mechanistic basis of community assembly and the drivers of trait variation among species. The present study investigated how plant functional and phylogenetic β-diversity change along key environmental and spatial gradients in the Western Swiss Alps. Methods Using the quadratic diversity measure based on six functional traits: specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC), plant height (H), leaf carbon content (C), leaf nitrogen content (N), and leaf carbon to nitrogen content (C/N) alongside a species-resolved phylogenetic tree, we relate variations in climate, spatial geographic, land use and soil gradients to plant functional and phylogenetic turnover in mountain communities of the Western Swiss Alps. Important findings Our study highlights two main points. First, climate and land use factors play an important role in mountain plant community turnover. Second, the overlap between plant functional and phylogenetic turnover along these gradients correlates with the low phylogenetic signal in traits, suggesting that in mountain landscapes, trait lability is likely an important factor in driving plant community assembly. Overall, we demonstrate the importance of climate and land use factors in plant functional and phylogenetic community turnover, and provide valuable complementary insights into understanding patterns of β-diversity along several ecological gradients.

Potential economic effects of climate change on Finnish agriculture

Selostus: Ilmastonmuutoksen taloudelliset vaikutukset suomalaiseen maatalouteen

Dynamic, auxin-responsive plasma membrane-to-nucleus movement of Arabidopsis BRX.

In Arabidopsis, interplay between nuclear auxin perception and trans-cellular polar auxin transport determines the transcriptional auxin response. In brevis radix (brx) mutants, this response is impaired, probably indirectly because of disturbed crosstalk between the auxin and brassinosteroid pathways. Here we provide evidence that BRX protein is plasma membrane-associated, but translocates to the nucleus upon auxin treatment to modulate cellular growth, possibly in conjunction with NGATHA class B3 domain-type transcription factors. Application of the polar auxin transport inhibitor naphthalene phthalamic acid (NPA) resulted in increased BRX abundance at the plasma membrane. Thus, nuclear translocation of BRX could depend on cellular auxin concentration or on auxin flux. Supporting this idea, NPA treatment of wild-type roots phenocopied the brx root meristem phenotype. Moreover, BRX is constitutively turned over by the proteasome pathway in the nucleus. However, a stabilized C-terminal BRX fragment significantly rescued the brx root growth phenotype and triggered a hypocotyl gain-of-function phenotype, similar to strong overexpressors of full length BRX. Therefore, although BRX activity is required in the nucleus, excess activity interferes with normal development. Finally, similar to the PIN-FORMED 1 (PIN1) auxin efflux carrier, BRX is polarly localized in vascular cells and subject to endocytic recycling. Expression of BRX under control of the PIN1 promoter fully rescued the brx short root phenotype, suggesting that the two genes act in the same tissues. Collectively, our results suggest that BRX might provide a contextual readout to synchronize cellular growth with the auxin concentration gradient across the root tip.

Developing scenarios of atmosphere, weather and climate for northern regions

Selostus: Ilmakehä-, sää- ja ilmastoskenaarioiden kehittäminen pohjoisille alueille

Artificial zinc finger fusions targeting Sp1-binding sites and the trans-activator-responsive element potently repress transcription and replication of HIV-1.

Tat activates transcription by interacting with Sp1, NF-kappaB, positive transcription elongation factor b, and trans-activator-responsive element (TAR). Tat and Sp1 play major roles in transcription by protein-protein interactions at human immunodeficiency virus, type 1 (HIV-1) long terminal repeat. Sp1 activates transcription by interacting with cyclin T1 in the absence of Tat. To disrupt the transcription activation by Tat and Sp1, we fused Sp1-inhibiting polypeptides, zinc finger polypeptide, and the TAR-binding mutant Tat (TatdMt) together. A designed or natural zinc finger and Tat mutant fusion was used to target the fusion to the key regulatory sites (GC box and TAR) on the long terminal repeat and nascent short transcripts to disrupt the molecular interaction that normally result in robust transcription. The designed zinc finger and TatdMt fusions were targeted to the TAR, and they potently repressed both transcription and replication of HIV-1. The Sp1-inhibiting POZ domain, TatdMt, and zinc fingers are key functional domains important in repression of transcription and replication. The designed artificial zinc fingers were targeted to the high affinity Sp1-binding site, and by being fused with TatdMt and POZ domain, they strongly block both Sp1-cyclin T1-dependent transcription and Tat-dependent transcription, even in the presence of excess expressed Tat.

Retinoid X receptor and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor activate an estrogen responsive gene independent of the estrogen receptor.

Estrogen receptors regulate transcription of genes essential for sexual development and reproductive function. Since the retinoid X receptor (RXR) is able to modulate estrogen responsive genes and both 9-cis RA and fatty acids influenced development of estrogen responsive tumors, we hypothesized that estrogen responsive genes might be modulated by RXR and the fatty acid receptor (peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor, PPAR). To test this hypothesis, transfection assays in CV-1 cells were performed with an estrogen response element (ERE) coupled to a luciferase reporter construct. Addition of expression vectors for RXR and PPAR resulted in an 11-fold increase in luciferase activity in the presence of 9-cis RA. Furthermore, mobility shift assays demonstrated binding of RXR and PPAR to the vitellogenin A2-ERE and an ERE in the oxytocin promoter. Methylation interference assays demonstrated that specific guanine residues required for RXR/PPAR binding to the ERE were similar to residues required for ER binding. Moreover, RXR domain-deleted constructs in transfection assays showed that activation required RXR since an RXR delta AF-2 mutant completely abrogated reporter activity. Oligoprecipitation binding studies with biotinylated ERE and (35)S-labeled in vitro translated RXR constructs confirmed binding of delta AF-2 RXR mutant to the ERE in the presence of baculovirus-expressed PPAR. Finally, in situ hybridization confirmed RXR and PPAR mRNA expression in estrogen responsive tissues. Collectively, these data suggest that RXR and PPAR are present in reproductive tissues, are capable of activating estrogen responsive genes and suggest that the mechanism of activation may involve direct binding of the receptors to estrogen response elements.

Membrane-destabilizing activity of pH-responsive cationic lysine-based surfactants: role of charge position and alkyl chain length

Many strategies for treating diseases require the delivery of drugs into the cell cytoplasm following internalization within endosomal vesicles. Thus, compounds triggered by low pH to disrupt membranes and release endosomal contents into the cytosol are of particular interest. Here, we report novel cationic lysine-based surfactants (hydrochloride salts of N¿- and N¿-acyl lysine methyl ester) that differ in the position of the positive charge and the length of the alkyl chain. Amino acid-based surfactants could be promising novel biomaterials in drug delivery systems, given their biocompatible properties and low cytotoxic potential. We examined their ability to disrupt the cell membrane in a range of pH values, concentrations and incubation times, using a standard hemolysis assay as a model of endosomal membranes. Furthermore, we addressed the mechanism of surfactant-mediated membrane destabilization, including the effects of each surfactant on erythrocyte morphology as a function of pH. We found that only surfactants with the positive charge on the ¿-amino group of lysine showed pH-sensitive hemolytic activity and improved kinetics within the endosomal pH range, indicating that the positive charge position is critical for pH-responsive behavior. Moreover, our results showed that an increase in the alkyl chain length from 14 to 16 carbon atoms was associated with a lower ability to disrupt cell membranes. Knowledge on modulating surfactant-lipid bilayer interactions may help us to develop more efficient biocompatible amino acid-based drug delivery devices.

Determinants of vitellogenin B1 promoter architecture. HNF3 and estrogen responsive transcription within chromatin.

The liver-specific vitellogenin B1 promoter is efficiently activated by estrogen within a nucleosomal environment after microinjection into Xenopus laevis oocytes, consistent with the hypothesis that significant nucleosome remodeling over this promoter is not a prerequisite for the activation by the estrogen receptor (ERalpha). This observation lead us to investigate determinants other than ERalpha of chromatin structure and transcriptional activation of the vitellogenin B1 promoter in this system and in vitro. We find that the liver-enriched transcription factor HNF3 has an important organizational role for chromatin structure as demonstrated by DNase I-hypersensitive site mapping. Both HNF3 and the estrogen receptor activate transcription synergistically and are able to interact with chromatin reconstituted in vitro with three positioned nucleosomes. We propose that HNF3 is the cellular determinant which establishes a promoter environment favorable to a rapid transcriptional activation by the estrogen receptor.