Slope stability analysis of the Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala, using limit equilibrium and finite element method

The Pacaya volcanic complex is part of the Central American volcanic arc, which is associated with the subduction of the Cocos tectonic plate under the Caribbean plate. Located 30 km south of Guatemala City, Pacaya is situated on the southern rim of the Amatitlan Caldera. It is the largest post-caldera volcano, and has been one of Central America’s most active volcanoes over the last 500 years. Between 400 and 2000 years B.P, the Pacaya volcano had experienced a huge collapse, which resulted in the formation of horseshoe-shaped scarp that is still visible. In the recent years, several smaller collapses have been associated with the activity of the volcano (in 1961 and 2010) affecting its northwestern flanks, which are likely to be induced by the local and regional stress changes. The similar orientation of dry and volcanic fissures and the distribution of new vents would likely explain the reactivation of the pre-existing stress configuration responsible for the old-collapse. This paper presents the first stability analysis of the Pacaya volcanic flank. The inputs for the geological and geotechnical models were defined based on the stratigraphical, lithological, structural data, and material properties obtained from field survey and lab tests. According to the mechanical characteristics, three lithotechnical units were defined: Lava, Lava-Breccia and Breccia-Lava. The Hoek and Brown’s failure criterion was applied for each lithotechnical unit and the rock mass friction angle, apparent cohesion, and strength and deformation characteristics were computed in a specified stress range. Further, the stability of the volcano was evaluated by two-dimensional analysis performed by Limit Equilibrium (LEM, ROCSCIENCE) and Finite Element Method (FEM, PHASE 2 7.0). The stability analysis mainly focused on the modern Pacaya volcano built inside the collapse amphitheatre of “Old Pacaya”. The volcanic instability was assessed based on the variability of safety factor using deterministic, sensitivity, and probabilistic analysis considering the gravitational instability and the effects of external forces such as magma pressure and seismicity as potential triggering mechanisms of lateral collapse. The preliminary results from the analysis provide two insights: first, the least stable sector is on the south-western flank of the volcano; second, the lowest safety factor value suggests that the edifice is stable under gravity alone, and the external triggering mechanism can represent a likely destabilizing factor.

Biomechanical analysis of torsion and shear forces in lumbar and lumbosacral spine segments of nonchondrodystrophic dogs

OBJECTIVE: To determine stiffness and load-displacement curves as a biomechanical response to applied torsion and shear forces in cadaveric canine lumbar and lumbosacral specimens. STUDY DESIGN: Biomechanical study. ANIMALS: Caudal lumbar and lumbosacral functional spine units (FSU) of nonchondrodystrophic large-breed dogs (n=31) with radiographically normal spines. METHODS: FSU from dogs without musculoskeletal disease were tested in torsion in a custom-built spine loading simulator with 6 degrees of freedom, which uses orthogonally mounted electric motors to apply pure axial rotation. For shear tests, specimens were mounted to a custom-made shear-testing device, driven by a servo hydraulic testing machine. Load-displacement curves were recorded for torsion and shear. RESULTS: Left and right torsion stiffness was not different within each FSU level; however, torsional stiffness of L7-S1 was significantly smaller compared with lumbar FSU (L4-5-L6-7). Ventral/dorsal stiffness was significantly different from lateral stiffness within an individual FSU level for L5-6, L6-7, and L7-S1 but not for L4-5. When the data from 4 tested shear directions from the same specimen were pooled, level L5-6 was significantly stiffer than L7-S1. CONCLUSIONS: Increased range of motion of the lumbosacral joint is reflected by an overall decreased shear and rotational stiffness at the lumbosacral FSU. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Data from dogs with disc degeneration have to be collected, analyzed, and compared with results from our chondrodystrophic large-breed dogs with radiographically normal spines.

Critical issues in managing protected areas by multi-stakeholder participation - analysis of a process in the Swiss Alps

Balancing the frequently conflicting priorities of conservation and economic development poses a challenge to management of the Swiss Alps Jungfrau-Aletsch World Heritage Site (WHS). This is a complex societal problem that calls for a knowledge-based solution. This in turn requires a transdisciplinary research framework in which problems are defined and solved cooperatively by actors from the scientific community and the life-world. In this article we re-examine studies carried out in the region of the Swiss Alps Jungfrau-Aletsch WHS, covering three key issues prevalent in transdisciplinary settings: integration of stakeholders into participatory processes; perceptions and positions; and negotiability and implementation. In the case of the Swiss Alps Jungfrau-Aletsch WHS the transdisciplinary setting created a situation of mutual learning among stakeholders from different levels and backgrounds. However, the studies showed that the benefits of such processes of mutual learning are continuously at risk of being diminished by the power play inherent in participatory approaches.

Fuzzy Online Reputation Analysis Framework

The fuzzy online reputation analysis framework, or “foRa” (plural of forum, the Latin word for marketplace) framework, is a method for searching the Social Web to find meaningful information about reputation. Based on an automatic, fuzzy-built ontology, this framework queries the social marketplaces of the Web for reputation, combines the retrieved results, and generates navigable Topic Maps. Using these interactive maps, communications operatives can zero in on precisely what they are looking for and discover unforeseen relationships between topics and tags. Thus, using this framework, it is possible to scan the Social Web for a name, product, brand, or combination thereof and determine query-related topic classes with related terms and thus identify hidden sources. This chapter also briefly describes the youReputation prototype (www.youreputation.org), a free web-based application for reputation analysis. In the course of this, a small example will explain the benefits of the prototype.

Quantitative analysis of fluorescence lifetime measurements of the macula using the fluorescence lifetime imaging ophthalmoscope in healthy subjects.

PURPOSE Fundus autofluorescence (FAF) cannot only be characterized by the intensity or the emission spectrum, but also by its lifetime. As the lifetime of a fluorescent molecule is sensitive to its local microenvironment, this technique may provide more information than fundus autofluorescence imaging. We report here the characteristics and repeatability of FAF lifetime measurements of the human macula using a new fluorescence lifetime imaging ophthalmoscope (FLIO). METHODS A total of 31 healthy phakic subjects were included in this study with an age range from 22 to 61 years. For image acquisition, a fluorescence lifetime ophthalmoscope based on a Heidelberg Engineering Spectralis system was used. Fluorescence lifetime maps of the retina were recorded in a short- (498-560 nm) and a long- (560-720 nm) spectral channel. For quantification of fluorescence lifetimes a standard ETDRS grid was used. RESULTS Mean fluorescence lifetimes were shortest in the fovea, with 208 picoseconds for the short-spectral channel and 239 picoseconds for the long-spectral channel, respectively. Fluorescence lifetimes increased from the central area to the outer ring of the ETDRS grid. The test-retest reliability of FLIO was very high for all ETDRS areas (Spearman's ρ = 0.80 for the short- and 0.97 for the long-spectral channel, P < 0.0001). Fluorescence lifetimes increased with age. CONCLUSIONS The FLIO allows reproducible measurements of fluorescence lifetimes of the macula in healthy subjects. By using a custom-built software, we were able to quantify fluorescence lifetimes within the ETDRS grid. Establishing a clinically accessible standard against which to measure FAF lifetimes within the retina is a prerequisite for future studies in retinal disease.

Quantitative morphometric analysis of lakes using GIS: rectangularity R , ellipticity E , orientation O , and the rectangularity vs. ellipticity index, REi

Quantitative measures of polygon shapes and orientation are important elements of geospatial analysis. These kinds of measures are particularly valuable in the case of lakes, where shape and orientation patterns can help identifying the geomorphological agents behind lake formation and evolution. However, the lack of built-in tools in commercial geographic information system (GIS) software packages designed for this kind of analysis has meant that many researchers often must rely on tools and workarounds that are not always accurate. Here, an easy-to-use method to measure rectangularity R, ellipticity E, and orientation O is developed. In addition, a new rectangularity vs. ellipticity index, REi, is defined. Following a step-by-step process, it is shown how these measures and index can be easily calculated using a combination of GIS built-in functions. The identification of shapes and estimation of orientations performed by this method is applied to the case study of the geometric and oriented lakes of the Llanos de Moxos, in the Bolivian Amazon, where shape and orientation have been the two most important elements studied to infer possible formation mechanisms. It is shown that, thanks to these new indexes, shape and orientation patterns are unveiled, which would have been hard to identify otherwise.

Time-Series Panel Analysis (TSPA): Multivariate Modeling of Temporal Associations in Psychotherapy Process.

Objective: Processes occurring in the course of psychotherapy are characterized by the simple fact that they unfold in time and that the multiple factors engaged in change processes vary highly between individuals (idiographic phenomena). Previous research, however, has neglected the temporal perspective by its traditional focus on static phenomena, which were mainly assessed at the group level (nomothetic phenomena). To support a temporal approach, the authors introduce time-series panel analysis (TSPA), a statistical methodology explicitly focusing on the quantification of temporal, session-to-session aspects of change in psychotherapy. TSPA-models are initially built at the level of individuals and are subsequently aggregated at the group level, thus allowing the exploration of prototypical models. Method: TSPA is based on vector auto-regression (VAR), an extension of univariate auto-regression models to multivariate time-series data. The application of TSPA is demonstrated in a sample of 87 outpatient psychotherapy patients who were monitored by postsession questionnaires. Prototypical mechanisms of change were derived from the aggregation of individual multivariate models of psychotherapy process. In a 2nd step, the associations between mechanisms of change (TSPA) and pre- to postsymptom change were explored. Results: TSPA allowed a prototypical process pattern to be identified, where patient's alliance and self-efficacy were linked by a temporal feedback-loop. Furthermore, therapist's stability over time in both mastery and clarification interventions was positively associated with better outcomes. Conclusions: TSPA is a statistical tool that sheds new light on temporal mechanisms of change. Through this approach, clinicians may gain insight into prototypical patterns of change in psychotherapy.

Urban expansion and its impact on urban agriculture – remote sensing based change analysis of Kizinga and Mzinga Valley – Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

Urban agriculture is a phenomenon that can be observed world-wide, particularly in cities of devel-oping countries. It is contributing significantly to food security and food safety and has sustained livelihood of the urban and peri-urban low income dwellers in developing countries for many years. Population increase due to rural-urban migration and natural, coupled with formal as well as infor-mal urbanization are competing with urban farming for available space and scarce water resources. A multitemporal multisensoral urban change analysis over the period of 25 years (1982-2007) was performed in order to measure and visualize the urban expansion along the Kizinga and Mzinga valley in the South of Dar es Salaam. Airphotos and VHR satellite data were analyzed by using a combination of a composition of anisotropic textural measures and spectral information. The study revealed that unplanned built-up area is expanding continuously and vegetation covers and agricultural lands decline at a fast rate. The validation showed that the overall classification accuracy varied depending on the database. The extracted built-up areas were used for visual in-terpretation mapping purposes and served as information source for another research project. The maps visualize an urban congestion and expansion of nearly 18% of the total analyzed area that had taken place in the Kizinga valley between 1982 and 2007. The same development can be ob-served in the less developed and more remote Mzinga valley between 1981 and 2002. Both areas underwent fast changes where land prices still tend to go up and an influx of people both from rural and urban areas continuously increase density with the consequence of increasing multiple land use interests.

The relationship between physical activity and perceived built environment factors among adult Mexican Americans living in Brownsville, Texas

Background. Physical Activity (PA) is a central part in the fight to reduce obesity rates that are higher in Mexican Americans in the United States than any other ethnic groups. More than half of all Americans do not meet the daily PA recommendations and 48% of Mexican Americans do not exercise. The built environment is believed to affect participation in physical activity. The influence of the built environmental on physical activity levels in low-income Mexican Americans living along the Texas-Mexico border has not been investigated. ^ Purpose. The purpose of this secondary data analysis was trifold: (1) to determine the levels of self-reported PA in adults living in Brownsville, Texas; (2) to characterize the perceptions of this population regarding the built environment; and (3) to determine the association between self-reported PA and the built environment in Mexican Americans living in Brownsville, Texas. ^ Methods. 400 participants from the Tu Salud ¡Sí Cuenta! (TSSC) community-wide campaign were included in this secondary data analysis. Percentages for level of physical activity and the built environment were calculated using SPSS. Perceptions of the built environment were assessed by 14 items. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the relationship between physical activity and built environment. All models were adjusted for age, gender, and level of education. ^ Results. The majority of men (41.97%) and women (59%), combined (56.7%)did not meet the 2008 PA Guidelines for Americans. We analyzed 14 built environment variables to characterize participants’ perceptions of the built environment. We conducted odds ratio (OR) to find if those who met PA levels associated the built environment such as neighborhood shops ([OR:1.806], CI:1.074,3.038 ]) bus stops ([OR:1.436], CI:.806,2.558) unattended stray dogs ([OR: 1.806], CI:1. 074,3.038), sidewalk access ([OR: .858],CI:.437,1.686), access to free parks ([OR:.549],CI:.335,.900) heavy traffic in neighborhood ([OR:.802], CI:.501,1.285), crime rate ([OR:.779], CI:.494,1.228) ranked the highest by mean score. The association between physical activity and the perceived built environment factors for Mexican Americans participating in the TSSCStudy were weakly associated. ^ Conclusions. This study provides evidence that PA levels are low in this Mexican American population. The built environment factors assessed in this study characterized the need for further studies of the variables that are seen as important to the Mexican American population. Lastly, the association of PA levels to the built environment was weak overall and further studies are recommended of the built environment.^

THE APPLICATION OF PATH ANALYSIS TO ASSESSMENT OF IRON NUTRITIONAL STATUS IN MAN

Path analysis has been applied to components of the iron metabolic system with the intent of suggesting an integrated procedure for better evaluating iron nutritional status at the community level. The primary variables of interest in this study were (1) iron stores, (2) total iron-binding capacity, (3) serum ferritin, (4) serum iron, (5) transferrin saturation, and (6) hemoglobin concentration. Correlation coefficients for relationships among these variables were obtained from published literature and postulated in a series of models using measures of those variables that are feasible to include in a community nutritional survey. Models were built upon known information about the metabolism of iron and were limited by what had been reported in the literature in terms of correlation coefficients or quantitative relationships. Data were pooled from various studies and correlations of the same bivariate relationships were averaged after z- transformations. Correlation matrices were then constructed by transforming the average values back into correlation coefficients. The results of path analysis in this study indicate that hemoglobin is not a good indicator of early iron deficiency. It does not account for variance in iron stores. On the other hand, 91% of the variance in iron stores is explained by serum ferritin and total iron-binding capacity. In addition, the magnitude of the path coefficient (.78) of the serum ferritin-iron stores relationship signifies that serum ferritin is the most important predictor of iron stores in the proposed model. Finally, drawing upon known relations among variables and the amount of variance explained in path models, it is suggested that the following blood measures should be made in assessing community iron deficiency: (1) serum ferritin, (2) total iron-binding capacity, (3) serum iron, (4) transferrin saturation, and (5) hemoglobin concentration. These measures (with acceptable ranges and cut-off points) could make possible the complete evaluation of all three stages of iron deficiency in those persons surveyed at the community level. ^

Age analysis, aragonite and high magnesium calcite content from different IODP Holes from Exp 310

The widespread occurrence of microbialites in the last deglacial reef frameworks (16-6 Ka BP) implies that the accurate study of their development patterns is of prime importance to unravel the evolution of reef architecture through time and to reconstruct the reef response to sea-level variations and environmental changes. The present study is based on the sedimentological and chronological analysis (14C AMS dating) of drill cores obtained during the IODP Expedition #310 "Tahiti Sea Level" on the successive terraces which typify the modern reef slopes from Tahiti. It provides a comprehensive data base to investigate the microbialite growth patterns (i.e. growth rates and habitats), to analyze their roles in reef frameworks and to reconstruct the evolution of the reef framework architecture during sea-level rise. The last deglacial reefs from Tahiti are composed of two distinctive biological communities: (1) the coralgal communities including seven assemblages characterized by various growth forms (branching, robust branching, massive, tabular and encrusting) that form the initial frameworks and (2) the microbial communities developed in the primary cavities of those frameworks, a few meters (1.5 to 6 m) below the living coral reef surface, where they heavily encrusted the coralgal assemblages to form microbialite crusts. The dating results demonstrate the occurrence of two distinctive generations of microbialites: the "reefal microbialites" which developed a few hundred years after coralgal communities in shallow-water environments, whereas the "slope microbialites" grew a few thousands of years later in significantly deeper water conditions after the demise of coralgal communities. The development of microbialites was controlled by the volume and the shape of the primary cavities of the initial reef frameworks determined by the morphology and the packing of coral colonies. The most widespread microbialite development occurred in frameworks dominated by branching, thin encrusting, tabular and robust branching coral colonies which built loose and open frameworks typified by a high porosity (> 50%). In contrast, their growth was minimal in compact coral frameworks formed by massive and thick encrusting corals where primary cavities yielded a low porosity (~ 30%) and could not host a significant microbialite expansion.

Sedimentological and clay mineralogical analysis of ODP sites in the central Fram Strait

This study presents the results of high-resolution sedimentological and clay mineralogical investigations on sediments from ODP Sites 908A and 909AlC located in the central Fram Strait. The objective was to reconstruct the paleoclimate and paleoceanography of the high northern latitudes since the middle Miocene. The sediments are characterised in particular by a distinctive input of ice-rafted material, which most probably occurs since 6 Ma and very likely since 15 Ma. A change in the source area at 1 1.2 Ma is clearly marked by variations within clay mineral composition and increasing accumulation rates. This is interpreted as a result of an increase in water mass exchange through the Fram Strait. A further period of increasing exchange between 4-3 Ma is identified by granulometric investigations and points to a synchronous intensification of deep water production in the North Atlantic during this time interval. A comparison of the components of coarse and clay fraction clearly shows that both are not delivered by the Same transport process. The input of the clay fraction can be related to transport mechanisms through sea ice and glaciers and very likely also through oceanic currents. A reconstruction of source areas for clay minerals is possible only with some restrictions. High smectite contents in middle and late Miocene sediments indicate a background signal produced by soil formation together with sediment input, possibly originating from the Greenland- Scotland Ridge. The applicability of clay mineral distribution as a climate proxy for the high northern latitudes can be confirmed. Based on a comparison of sediments from Site 909C, characterised by the smectite/illite and chlorite ratio, with regional and global climatic records (oxygen isotopes), a middle Miocene cooling phase between 14.8-14.6 Ma can be proposed. A further cooling phase between 10-9 Ma clearly shows similarities in its Progress toward drastic decrease in carbonate sedimentation and preservation in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The modification in sea water and atmosphere chemistry may represent a possible link due to the built-up of equatorial carbonate platforms. Between 4.8-4.6 Ma clay mineral distribution indicates a distinct cooling trend in the Fram Strait region. This is not accompanied by relevant glaciation, which would otherwise be indicated by the coarse fraction. The intensification of glaciation in the northern hemisphere is distinctly documented by a rapid increase of illite and chlorite starting from 3.3 Ma, which corresponds to oxygen isotope data trends from North Atlantic.

Modelling the Impact of Built Environment, Geographical Scales and Latent Constructs On Individual Travel Behaviour

La relación entre la estructura urbana y la movilidad ha sido estudiada desde hace más de 70 años. El entorno urbano incluye múltiples dimensiones como por ejemplo: la estructura urbana, los usos de suelo, la distribución de instalaciones diversas (comercios, escuelas y zonas de restauración, parking, etc.). Al realizar una revisión de la literatura existente en este contexto, se encuentran distintos análisis, metodologías, escalas geográficas y dimensiones, tanto de la movilidad como de la estructura urbana. En este sentido, se trata de una relación muy estudiada pero muy compleja, sobre la que no existe hasta el momento un consenso sobre qué dimensión del entorno urbano influye sobre qué dimensión de la movilidad, y cuál es la manera apropiada de representar esta relación. Con el propósito de contestar estas preguntas investigación, la presente tesis tiene los siguientes objetivos generales: (1) Contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la compleja relación estructura urbana y movilidad. y (2) Entender el rol de los atributos latentes en la relación entorno urbano y movilidad. El objetivo específico de la tesis es analizar la influencia del entorno urbano sobre dos dimensiones de la movilidad: número de viajes y tipo de tour. Vista la complejidad de la relación entorno urbano y movilidad, se pretende contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la relación a través de la utilización de 3 escalas geográficas de las variables y del análisis de la influencia de efectos inobservados en la movilidad. Para el análisis se utiliza una base de datos conformada por tres tipos de datos: (1) Una encuesta de movilidad realizada durante los años 2006 y 2007. Se obtuvo un total de 943 encuestas, en 3 barrios de Madrid: Chamberí, Pozuelo y Algete. (2) Información municipal del Instituto Nacional de Estadística: dicha información se encuentra enlazada con los orígenes y destinos de los viajes recogidos en la encuesta. Y (3) Información georeferenciada en Arc-GIS de los hogares participantes en la encuesta: la base de datos contiene información respecto a la estructura de las calles, localización de escuelas, parking, centros médicos y lugares de restauración. Se analizó la correlación entre e intra-grupos y se modelizaron 4 casos de atributos bajo la estructura ordinal logit. Posteriormente se evalúa la auto-selección a través de la estimación conjunta de las elecciones de tipo de barrio y número de viajes. La elección del tipo de barrio consta de 3 alternativas: CBD, Urban y Suburban, según la zona de residencia recogida en las encuestas. Mientras que la elección del número de viajes consta de 4 categorías ordinales: 0 viajes, 1-2 viajes, 3-4 viajes y 5 o más viajes. A partir de la mejor especificación del modelo ordinal logit. Se desarrolló un modelo joint mixed-ordinal conjunto. Los resultados indican que las variables exógenas requieren un análisis exhaustivo de correlaciones con el fin de evitar resultados sesgados. ha determinado que es importante medir los atributos del BE donde se realiza el viaje, pero también la información municipal es muy explicativa de la movilidad individual. Por tanto, la percepción de las zonas de destino a nivel municipal es considerada importante. En el contexto de la Auto-selección (self-selection) es importante modelizar conjuntamente las decisiones. La Auto-selección existe, puesto que los parámetros estimados conjuntamente son significativos. Sin embargo, sólo ciertos atributos del entorno urbano son igualmente importantes sobre la elección de la zona de residencia y frecuencia de viajes. Para analizar la Propensión al Viaje, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, formado por: una variable latente, un indicador y un modelo de elección discreta. La variable latente se denomina “Propensión al Viaje”, cuyo indicador en ecuación de medida es el número de viajes; la elección discreta es el tipo de tour. El modelo de elección consiste en 5 alternativas, según la jerarquía de actividades establecida en la tesis: HOME, no realiza viajes durante el día de estudio, HWH tour cuya actividad principal es el trabajo o estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HWHs tour si el individuo reaiza paradas intermedias; HOH tour cuya actividad principal es distinta a trabajo y estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HOHs donde se realizan paradas intermedias. Para llegar a la mejor especificación del modelo, se realizó un trabajo importante considerando diferentes estructuras de modelos y tres tipos de estimaciones. De tal manera, se obtuvieron parámetros consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados muestran que la modelización de los tours, representa una ventaja sobre la modelización de los viajes, puesto que supera las limitaciones de espacio y tiempo, enlazando los viajes realizados por la misma persona en el día de estudio. La propensión al viaje (PT) existe y es específica para cada tipo de tour. Los parámetros estimados en el modelo híbrido resultaron significativos y distintos para cada alternativa de tipo de tour. Por último, en la tesis se verifica que los modelos híbridos representan una mejora sobre los modelos tradicionales de elección discreta, dando como resultado parámetros consistentes y más robustos. En cuanto a políticas de transporte, se ha demostrado que los atributos del entorno urbano son más importantes que los LOS (Level of Service) en la generación de tours multi-etapas. la presente tesis representa el primer análisis empírico de la relación entre los tipos de tours y la propensión al viaje. El concepto Propensity to Travel ha sido desarrollado exclusivamente para la tesis. Igualmente, el desarrollo de un modelo conjunto RC-Number of trips basado en tres escalas de medida representa innovación en cuanto a la comparación de las escalas geográficas, que no había sido hecha en la modelización de la self-selection. The relationship between built environment (BE) and travel behaviour (TB) has been studied in a number of cases, using several methods - aggregate and disaggregate approaches - and different focuses – trip frequency, automobile use, and vehicle miles travelled and so on. Definitely, travel is generated by the need to undertake activities and obtain services, and there is a general consensus that urban components affect TB. However researches are still needed to better understand which components of the travel behaviour are affected most and by which of the urban components. In order to fill the gap in the research, the present dissertation faced two main objectives: (1) To contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between travel demand and urban environment. And (2) To develop an econometric model for estimating travel demand with urban environment attributes. With this purpose, the present thesis faced an exhaustive research and computation of land-use variables in order to find the best representation of BE for modelling trip frequency. In particular two empirical analyses are carried out: 1. Estimation of three dimensions of travel demand using dimensions of urban environment. We compare different travel dimensions and geographical scales, and we measure self-selection contribution following the joint models. 2. Develop a hybrid model, integrated latent variable and discrete choice model. The implementation of hybrid models is new in the analysis of land-use and travel behaviour. BE and TB explicitly interact and allow richness information about a specific individual decision process For all empirical analysis is used a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2007 in Madrid. Spatial attributes describing neighbourhood environment are derived from different data sources: National Institute of Statistics-INE (Administrative: municipality and district) and GIS (circular units). INE provides raw data for such spatial units as: municipality and district. The construction of census units is trivial as the census bureau provides tables that readily define districts and municipalities. The construction of circular units requires us to determine the radius and associate the spatial information to our households. The first empirical part analyzes trip frequency by applying an ordered logit model. In this part is studied the effect of socio-economic, transport and land use characteristics on two travel dimensions: trip frequency and type of tour. In particular the land use is defined in terms of type of neighbourhoods and types of dwellers. Three neighbourhood representations are explored, and described three for constructing neighbourhood attributes. In particular administrative units are examined to represent neighbourhood and circular – unit representation. Ordered logit models are applied, while ordinal logit models are well-known, an intensive work for constructing a spatial attributes was carried out. On the other hand, the second empirical analysis consists of the development of an innovative econometric model that considers a latent variable called “propensity to travel”, and choice model is the choice of type of tour. The first two specifications of ordinal models help to estimate this latent variable. The latent variable is unobserved but the manifestation is called “indicators”, then the probability of choosing an alternative of tour is conditional to the probability of latent variable and type of tour. Since latent variable is unknown we fit the integral over its distribution. Four “sets of best variables” are specified, following the specification obtained from the correlation analysis. The results evidence that the relative importance of SE variables versus BE variables depends on how BE variables are measured. We found that each of these three spatial scales has its intangible qualities and drawbacks. Spatial scales play an important role on predicting travel demand due to the variability in measures at trip origin/destinations within the same administrative unit (municipality, district and so on). Larger units will produce less variation in data; but it does not affect certain variables, such as public transport supply, that are more significant at municipality level. By contrast, land-use measures are more efficient at district level. Self-selection in this context, is weak. Thus, the influence of BE attributes is true. The results of the hybrid model show that unobserved factors affect the choice of tour complexity. The latent variable used in this model is propensity to travel that is explained by socioeconomic aspects and neighbourhood attributes. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact depending on the structure of each tour and increases the probability of choosing more complex tours, such as tours with many intermediate stops. The integration of choice and latent variable model shows that omitting important perception and attitudes leads to inconsistent estimates. The results also indicate that goodness of fit improves by adding the latent variable in both sequential and simultaneous estimation. There are significant differences in the sensitivity to the latent variable across alternatives. In general, as expected, the hybrid models show a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to a classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. The integrated model leads to a more detailed analysis of the behavioural process. Summarizing, the effect that built environment characteristics on trip frequency studied is deeply analyzed. In particular we tried to better understand how land use characteristics can be defined and measured and which of these measures do have really an impact on trip frequency. We also tried to test the superiority of HCM on this field. We can concluded that HCM shows a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. And consequently, the application of HCM shows the importance of LV on the decision of tour complexity. People are more elastic to built environment attributes than level of services. Thus, policy implications must take place to develop more mixed areas, work-places in combination with commercial retails.

Structural Analysis of Thin Tile Vaults and Domes: The Inner Oval Dome of the Basilica de los Desamparados in Valencia

The inner oval dome of the Basílica de la Virgen los Desamparados, built in 1701, is one of the most slender masonry vaults ever built. It is a tile dome with a total thickness of 80 mm and a main span of 18.50 m. It was built without centering with great ingenuity and economy of means, thirty three years after the termination of the building in 1667. The dome is in contact with the external dome only in the inferior part with the projecting ribs of the intrados, the lunettes of the windows, and, in the upper part, through 126 inclined iron bars. This unique construction was revealed in the 1990's in the studies previous to the restoration of the Basílica, and has given rise to different theories about the mode of construction and the structural behaviour and safety of the dome. The present contribution aims to provide a plausible hypothesis about the mode of construction and to explain the safety of the inner dome which has stood, without need of repairs or reinforcement, for 300 hundred years.

The Islamic Crossed-Arch Domes in Cordoba: Geometry and Structural Analysis of the “Capilla de Villaviciosa”

Crossed-arch domes are a singular type of ribbed vaults. Their characteristic feature is that the ribs that form the vault are intertwined, forming polygons or stars, leaving an empty space in the centre. The earliest known vaults of this type are found in the Great Mosque of Córdoba, built ca. 960 a.C. The type spread through Spain, and the north of Africa in the 10th to the 16th Centuries, and was used by Guarini and Vittone in the 17th and 18th Centuries in Italy. However, it was used only in a few buildings. Though the literature about the structural behaviour of ribbed Gothic vaults is extensive, so far no structural analysis of crossed arch domes has been made. The purpose of this work is, first to show the way to attack such an analysis within the frame of Modern Limit Analysis of Masonry Structures (Heyman 1995), and then to apply the approach to study the stability of the dome of the Capilla de Villaviciosa. The work may give some clues to art and architectural historians to understand better the origin and development of Islamic dome architecture.