Modelling the influence of change in fire regime on the local distribution of a Mediterranean pyrophytic plant species (Cistus salviifolius) at its northern range limit

Aims: To assess the potential distribution of an obligate seeder and active pyrophyte, Cistus salviifolius, a vulnerable species in the Swiss Red List; to derive scenarios by changing the fire return interval; and to discuss the results from a conservation perspective. A more general aim is to assess the impact of fire as a natural factor influencing the vegetation of the southern slopes of the Alps. Locations: Alps, southern Switzerland. Methods: Presence-absence data to fit the model were obtained from the most recent field mapping of C. salviifolius. The quantitative environmental predictors used in this study include topographic, climatic and disturbance (fire) predictors. Models were fitted by logistic regression and evaluated by jackknife and bootstrap approaches. Changes in fire regime were simulated by increasing the time-return interval of fire (simulating longer periods without fire). Two scenarios were considered: no fire in the past 15 years; or in the past 35 years. Results: Rock cover, slope, topographic position, potential evapotranspiration and time elapsed since the last fire were selected in the final model. The Nagelkerke R-2 of the model for C. salviifolius was 0.57 and the Jackknife area under the curve evaluation was 0.89. The bootstrap evaluation revealed model robustness. By increasing the return interval of fire by either up to 15 years, or 35 years, the modelled C. salviifolius population declined by 30-40%, respectively. Main conclusions: Although fire plays a significant role, topography and rock cover appear to be the most important predictors, suggesting that the distribution of C. salviifolius in the southern Swiss Alps is closely related to the availability of supposedly competition-free sites, such as emerging bedrock, ridge locations or steep slopes. Fire is more likely to play a secondary role in allowing C. salviifolius to extend its occurrence temporarily, by increasing germination rates and reducing the competition from surrounding vegetation. To maintain a viable dormant seed bank for C. salviifolius, conservation managers should consider carrying out vegetation clearing and managing wild fire propagation to reduce competition and ensure sufficient recruitment for this species.

Boron Leaching Decreases withIncreases on Soil pH

ABSTRACT Management of boron fertilization depends on the magnitude of B leaching in the soil profile, which varies proportionally with the concentration of B in the soil solution, which, in turn, decreases as the soil pH increases due to the higher sorption of B on soil solid surfaces. The objective of this study was to quantify the effect of liming and rates of B applied to the soil on B leaching. The experiment was carried out in the laboratory in 2012, and treatments consisted of a factorial combination of two rates of liming (without and with lime to raise the soil pH to 6.0) and five rates of B (0, 10, 20, 50 and 100 mg kg-1, as boric acid). A Typic Rhodudalf was used, containing 790 g kg-1 clay and 23 g kg-1 organic matter; the pH(H2O) was 4.6. Experimental units were composed of PVC leaching columns (0.10 m in diameter) containing 1.42 kg of soil (dry base). Boron was manually mixed with the top 0.15 m of the soil. After that, every seven days for 15 weeks, 300 mL of distilled water were added to the top of each column. In the percolated solution, both the volume and concentration of B were measured. Leaching of B decreased with increased soil pH and, averaged across the B rates applied, was 58 % higher from unlimed (pH 4.6) than from limed (pH 6.6) samples as a result of the increase in B sorption with higher soil pH. In spite of its high vertical mobility, the residual effect of B was high in this oxisol, mainly in the limed samples where 80 % of B applied at the two highest rates remained in the soil, even after 15 water percolations. Total recovery of applied B, including leached B plus B extracted from the soil after all percolations, was less than 50 %, showing that not all sorbed B was quantified by the hot water extraction method.

Bootstrapping pairs in Distance-Based Regression

La regressió basada en distàncies és un mètode de predicció que consisteix en dos passos: a partir de les distàncies entre observacions obtenim les variables latents, les quals passen a ser els regressors en un model lineal de mínims quadrats ordinaris. Les distàncies les calculem a partir dels predictors originals fent us d'una funció de dissimilaritats adequada. Donat que, en general, els regressors estan relacionats de manera no lineal amb la resposta, la seva selecció amb el test F usual no és possible. En aquest treball proposem una solució a aquest problema de selecció de predictors definint tests estadístics generalitzats i adaptant un mètode de bootstrap no paramètric per a l'estimació dels p-valors. Incluim un exemple numèric amb dades de l'assegurança d'automòbils.

COLOX: a new blood-based test for colorectal cancer (CRC)screening

BACKGROUND: The objective is to develop a cost-effective, reliable and non invasive screening test able to detect early CRCs and adenomas. This is done on a nucleic acids multigene assay performed on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). METHODS: A colonoscopy-controlled study was conducted on 179 subjects. 92 subjects (21 CRC, 30 adenoma >1 cm and 41 controls) were used as training set to generate a signature. Other 48 subjects kept blinded (controls, CRC and polyps) were used as a test set. To determine organ and disease specificity 38 subjects were used: 24 with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD),14 with other cancers (OC). Blood samples were taken and PBMCs were purified. After the RNA extraction, multiplex RT-qPCR was applied on 92 different candidate biomarkers. After different univariate and multivariate analysis 60 biomarkers with significant p-values (<0.01) were selected. 2 distinct biomarker signatures are used to separate patients without lesion from those with CRC or with adenoma, named COLOX CRC and COLOX POL. COLOX performances were validated using random resampling method, bootstrap. RESULTS: COLOX CRC and POL tests successfully separate patients without lesions from those with CRC (Se 67%, Sp 93%, AUC 0.87), and from those with adenoma > 1cm (Se 63%, Sp 83%, AUC 0.77). 6/24 patients in the IBD group and 1/14 patients in the OC group have a positive COLOX CRC. CONCLUSION: The two COLOX tests demonstrated a high Se and Sp to detect the presence of CRCs and adenomas > 1 cm. A prospective, multicenter, pivotal study is underway in order to confirm these promising results in a larger cohort.

Do youths gamble? You bet! A Swiss population-based study

Cette recherche sur les jeux d'argent et de hasard au sein de la population des jeunes résidents Suisses avait trois objectifs. Pour avoir des données de base, nous nous sommes d'une part intéressés à la prévalence de ce comportement et, basé sur des critères de fréquence, avons mis en évidence une population plus à risque de subir des conséquences néfastes du jeu;à savoir ceux qui jouent au minimum une fois par semaine. Le deuxième objectif était de déterminer s'il existait une association entre la fréquence du jeu et 1) l'utilisation de substances, 2) une mauvaise santé mentale et/ou 3) un faible support social, comme cela a été décrit dans la littérature pour les joueurs pathologiques. Finalement, pour savoir si les joueurs fréquents étaient «fixés» sur un seul type de jeu ou au contraire jouaient de manière non-sélective, nous avons effectué la corrélation entre la fréquence de jeu et le nombre de jeux différents dans lesquels les jeunes étaient impliqués.Pour ces analyses, nous avons utilisé la base de données de l'Enquête Suisse sur la Santé 2007, une étude transversale interrogeant des résidents suisses âgés de 15 ans ou plus. Cette enquête a été menée en deux étapes: 1) un questionnaire téléphonique (taux de réponse: 66.3%) puis 2) un questionnaire écrit (taux de réponse: 80.5% de ceux qui ont répondu à l'interview téléphonique). En tenant compte de la pondération pour l'échantillon de participants ayant répondu aux deux types d'interviews, nous avons considéré uniquement les personnes âgées de 15 à 24 ans. Au total 1116 (582 hommes) participants ont été retenus pour notre étude.Pour répondre au second objectif, nous avons comparé trois groupes. Les non-joueurs (NJ, n=577), les joueurs occasionnels (JO, n=388) et les joueurs fréquents (JF, n=151) ont été étudiés d'abord grâce à des analyses bivariées, puis à une régression multinomiale permettant de tenir compte des facteurs confondants. La sélection des variables pour la régression a été basée sur une méthode «bootstrap» permettant de produire des résultats représentatifs de la population entière et pas uniquement de l'échantillon analysé.Nous avons procédé de manière similaire pour répondre à la troisième question de recherche, mais en comparant uniquement les joueurs occasionnels et les joueurs fréquents.Les résultats ont mis en évidence que 48.3% des jeunes résidents suisses étaient impliqués dans au moins un type de jeu dans l'année précédente. Par ailleurs, 13.5% (n=151) des 15 à 24 ans jouaient au minimum une fois par semaine.Au niveau bivarié, la fréquence de jeu était associée à des facteurs sociodémographiques comme le sexe masculin, l'âge (les JO étant les plus âgés), et le revenu personnel. La fréquence de jeu était également significativement associée au fait de fumer du tabac quotidiennement, d'être actuellement fumeur de cannabis et d'avoir une consommation d'alcool à risque (beuveries). La mauvaise santé mentale (épisode de dépression majeure ou détresse psychologique) et le faible support relationnel (personne de confiance dans l'entourage ou activités de loisirs) n'étaient pas associés à la fréquence de jeu de manière significative, bien qu'une nette tendance en faveur des NJ ait pu être mise en évidence. Au niveau multivarié, les JO et JF étaient plus âgés, plus souvent de sexe masculin et habitaient plus souvent en Suisse romande que les NJ. Les JO étaient plus à risque que les NJ de se soumettre à des beuveries de manière occasionnelle et les JF étaient plus à risque que les NJ d'être des fumeurs de tabac quotidiens.En comparant les JO et les JF, nous avons obtenu une correlation élevée (r=0.85;p<0.0001) entre la fréquence de jeu et le nombre de jeux dans lesquels les jeunes étaient impliqués. Ceci indiquant que les JF ne semblent pas très sélectifs quant au type de jeu auquel ils jouent.Dans la mesure où le jeu est un comportement très prévalent au sein de la population des jeunes résidents suisses, il doit probablement être vu comme une conduite faisant partie des comportements exploratoires de l'adolescence. Néanmoins, au vu des comportements à risque qui y sont associés, la question du jeu devrait être soulevée par les médecins s'occupant de jeunes adultes à des fins de prévention.

Melt variability in percolated peridotite: an experimental study applied to reactive migration of tholeiitic basalt in the upper mantle

Melt-rock reaction in the upper mantle is recorded in a variety of ultramafic rocks and is an important process in modifying melt composition on its way from the source region towards the surface. This experimental study evaluates the compositional variability of tholeiitic basalts upon reaction with depleted peridotite at uppermost-mantle conditions. Infiltration-reaction processes are simulated by employing a three-layered set-up: primitive basaltic powder ('melt layer') is overlain by a 'peridotite layer' and a layer of vitreous carbon spheres ('melt trap'). Melt from the melt layer is forced to move through the peridotite layer into the melt trap. Experiments were conducted at 0.65 and 0.8 GPa in the temperature range 1,170-1,290 degrees C. In this P-T range, representing conditions encountered in the transition zone (thermal boundary layer) between the asthenosphere and the lithosphere underneath oceanic spreading centres, the melt is subjected to fractionation, and the peridotite is partially melting (T (s) similar to 1,260 degrees C). The effect of reaction between melt and peridotite on the melt composition was investigated across each experimental charge. Quenched melts in the peridotite layers display larger compositional variations than melt layer glasses. A difference between glasses in the melt and peridotite layer becomes more important at decreasing temperature through a combination of enrichment in incompatible elements in the melt layer and less efficient diffusive equilibration in the melt phase. At 1,290A degrees C, preferential dissolution of pyroxenes enriches the melt in silica and dilutes it in incompatible elements. Moreover, liquids become increasingly enriched in Cr(2)O(3) at higher temperatures due to the dissolution of spinel. Silica contents of liquids decrease at 1,260 degrees C, whereas incompatible elements start to concentrate in the melt due to increasing levels of crystallization. At the lowest temperatures investigated, increasing alkali contents cause silica to increase as a consequence of reactive fractionation. Pervasive percolation of tholeiitic basalt through an upper-mantle thermal boundary layer can thus impose a high-Si 'low-pressure' signature on MORB. This could explain opx + plag enrichment in shallow plagioclase peridotites and prolonged formation of olivine gabbros.

Comment améliorer la reproductibilité de lecture des VFA en dépistage clinique? la cohorte OsteoLaus.

Introduction. - Les fractures ostéoporotiques entrainent une morbi-mortalité et des coûts économiques et humains grandissants. Des campagnes de dépistage se mettent en place associant questionnaire et DXA afin d'évaluer le risque fracturaire individuel et populationnel. La découverte fortuite d'une fracture vertébrale (VF), rendue possible par la réalisation d'une morphométrie vertébrale de profil (VFA par DXA) de D4 à L4, peut changer le diagnostic et le pronostic. Néanmoins sa reproductibilité de lecture est peu élevée, surtout sur le rachis dorsal et les fractures de grade 1 [1]. L'IOF/ISCD a proposé un guide pour en améliorer la lecture. Nous avons mesuré la reproductibilité de lecture des VFA avant et après application de ce guide sur une cohorte Suisse de dépistage de l'ostéoporose. Patients et méthodes. - 360 VFA (Hologic Delphi) issus aléatoirement de la cohorte OstéoLaus (femmes > 50 ans) ont été lus par 2 lecteurs indépendants avant et après application du guide de lecture. Il comporte des règles de condition de lecture (luminosité, contraste sur l'écran) et des étapes de lecture systématisées. La reproductibilité a été évaluée par le test de kappa sur : la lisibilité de chaque vertèbre, l'existence ou non d'une VF, son grade (1, 2 ou 3 selon Genant). Nous avons utilisé le Kappa de Cohen avec une technique de bootstrap pour les comparaisons avant/après sur des données corrélées. Résultats. - L'accord entre les lecteurs est élevé et s'améliore après application du guide de lecture (tableau). Le kappa de Cohen est modéré à bon selon Landis et Koch (0,4-0,7). La reproductibilité sur les grades est améliorée en regroupant les grades 0/1 et 2/3, mais pas par le guide de lecture. Conclusion. - L'utilisation du guide de lecture des VFA IOF/ISCD améliore la reproductibilité sur la lisibilité des vertèbres, la détection des VF, mais pas la classification du grade selon Genant. Ceci est principalement expliqué par le fait que le kappa de Cohen donne beaucoup d'importance à la distribution des données, qui devient asymétrique lorsque l'événement est rare. Le kappa uniforme [2] serait mieux adapté dans cette situation. Une réanalyse est en cours.

Assessment of early-stage optic nerve invasion in retinoblastoma using high-resolution 1.5 Tesla MRI with surface coils: a multicentre, prospective accuracy study with histopathological correlation.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the accuracy of high-resolution (HR) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in diagnosing early-stage optic nerve (ON) invasion in a retinoblastoma cohort. METHODS: This IRB-approved, prospective multicenter study included 95 patients (55 boys, 40 girls; mean age, 29 months). 1.5-T MRI was performed using surface coils before enucleation, including spin-echo unenhanced and contrast-enhanced (CE) T1-weighted sequences (slice thickness, 2 mm; pixel size <0.3 × 0.3 mm(2)). Images were read by five neuroradiologists blinded to histopathologic findings. ROC curves were constructed with AUC assessment using a bootstrap method. RESULTS: Histopathology identified 41 eyes without ON invasion and 25 with prelaminar, 18 with intralaminar and 12 with postlaminar invasion. All but one were postoperatively classified as stage I by the International Retinoblastoma Staging System. The accuracy of CE-T1 sequences in identifying ON invasion was limited (AUC = 0.64; 95 % CI, 0.55 - 0.72) and not confirmed for postlaminar invasion diagnosis (AUC = 0.64; 95 % CI, 0.47 - 0.82); high specificities (range, 0.64 - 1) and negative predictive values (range, 0.81 - 0.97) were confirmed. CONCLUSION: HR-MRI with surface coils is recommended to appropriately select retinoblastoma patients eligible for primary enucleation without the risk of IRSS stage II but cannot substitute for pathology in differentiating the first degrees of ON invasion. KEY POINTS: • HR-MRI excludes advanced optic nerve invasion with high negative predictive value. • HR-MRI accurately selects patients eligible for primary enucleation. • Diagnosis of early stages of optic nerve invasion still relies on pathology. • Several physiological MR patterns may mimic optic nerve invasion.

Social network architecture and the maintenance of deleterious cultural traits.

How have changes in communications technology affected the way that misinformation spreads through a population and persists? To what extent do differences in the architecture of social networks affect the spread of misinformation, relative to the rates and rules by which individuals transmit or eliminate different pieces of information (cultural traits)? Here, we use analytical models and individual-based simulations to study how a 'cultural load' of misinformation can be maintained in a population under a balance between social transmission and selective elimination of cultural traits with low intrinsic value. While considerable research has explored how network architecture affects percolation processes, we find that the relative rates at which individuals transmit or eliminate traits can have much more profound impacts on the cultural load than differences in network architecture. In particular, the cultural load is insensitive to correlations between an individual's network degree and rate of elimination when these quantities vary among individuals. Taken together, these results suggest that changes in communications technology may have influenced cultural evolution more strongly through changes in the amount of information flow, rather than the details of who is connected to whom.

Effects of long-term irrigation with treated wastewater. Part I: Evolution of soil physico-chemical properties

The long-term impact of irrigation on a Mediterranean sandy soil irrigated with Treated wastewater (TWW) since 1980 was evaluated. The main soil properties (CEC, pH, size distribution, exchangeable cations and chloride, hydraulic conductivity) as well as the organic matter and Cu, Cr and Pb speciation in an irrigated soil and a non-irrigated control soil at various soil depths were monitored and compared during a 2 years experiment. In this first part, the evolution of the physico-chemical soil properties was described. The irrigation with TWW was beneficial with regard to water and nutrient supplying. All the exchangeable cations other than K(+) were higher in the irrigated soil than in the reference one. A part of the exchangeable cations was not fixed on the exchange complex but stored as labile salts or in concentrated soil solution. Despite the very sandy soil texture, both saturated and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity exhibited a significant diminution in the irrigated soil, but remained high enough to allow water percolation during rainy periods and subsequent leaching of accumulated salts, preventing soil salinization. In the irrigated soil, exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP) exhibited high values (20% on average) and the soil organic C was lower than in the reference. No significant effect was noticed on soil mineralogical composition due to irrigation. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

High precision anatomy for MEG.

Precise MEG estimates of neuronal current flow are undermined by uncertain knowledge of the head location with respect to the MEG sensors. This is either due to head movements within the scanning session or systematic errors in co-registration to anatomy. Here we show how such errors can be minimized using subject-specific head-casts produced using 3D printing technology. The casts fit the scalp of the subject internally and the inside of the MEG dewar externally, reducing within session and between session head movements. Systematic errors in matching to MRI coordinate system are also reduced through the use of MRI-visible fiducial markers placed on the same cast. Bootstrap estimates of absolute co-registration error were of the order of 1mm. Estimates of relative co-registration error were <1.5mm between sessions. We corroborated these scalp based estimates by looking at the MEG data recorded over a 6month period. We found that the between session sensor variability of the subject's evoked response was of the order of the within session noise, showing no appreciable noise due to between-session movement. Simulations suggest that the between-session sensor level amplitude SNR improved by a factor of 5 over conventional strategies. We show that at this level of coregistration accuracy there is strong evidence for anatomical models based on the individual rather than canonical anatomy; but that this advantage disappears for errors of greater than 5mm. This work paves the way for source reconstruction methods which can exploit very high SNR signals and accurate anatomical models; and also significantly increases the sensitivity of longitudinal studies with MEG.

Evaluation of a computer model to simulate water table response to subirrigation

The objective of this work was to evaluate the water flow computer model, WATABLE, using experimental field observations on water table management plots from a site located near Hastings, FL, USA. The experimental field had scale drainage systems with provisions for subirrigation with buried microirrigation and conventional seepage irrigation systems. Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) growing seasons from years 1996 and 1997 were used to simulate the hydrology of the area. Water table levels, precipitation, irrigation and runoff volumes were continuously monitored. The model simulated the water movement from a buried microirrigation line source and the response of the water table to irrigation, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and deep percolation. The model was calibrated and verified by comparing simulated results with experimental field observations. The model performed very well in simulating seasonal runoff, irrigation volumes, and water table levels during crop growth. The two-dimensional model can be used to investigate different irrigation strategies involving water table management control. Applications of the model include optimization of the water table depth for each growth stage, and duration, frequency, and rate of irrigation.

Similaridade genética entre raças bovinas brasileiras

A similaridade genética entre animais de duas raças bovinas brasileiras (Crioulo Lageano e Junqueira) foi estimada pela análise de polimorfismo de DNA amplificado ao acaso (RAPD), tendo como referência (outgroups) animais de raças comerciais das espécies Bos taurus e B. indicus. Estas duas raças possuem grande similaridade fenotípica, sugerindo uma origem genética comum. Uma matriz de similaridade genética baseada em polimorfismo de DNA foi obtida e representada graficamente por um dendrograma, definido após processo estatístico de reamostragem bootstrap. Ao contrário do que era previsto com base nas semelhanças morfológicas das duas raças, os animais das raças Crioulo Lageano e Junqueira não apresentaram similaridade elevada entre si quando comparados com animais de outras raças comerciais. Os dados indicam que as duas raças sofreram contribuições genéticas distintas no processo de formação racial.

Genetic divergence among tomato leafminer populations based on AFLP analysis

The objective of this work was to determine the genetic differences among eight Brazilian populations of the tomato leafminer Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), from the states of Espírito Santo (Santa Tereza), Goiás (Goianápolis), Minas Gerais (Uberlândia and Viçosa), Pernambuco (Camocim de São Félix), Rio de Janeiro (São João da Barra) and São Paulo (Paulínia and Sumaré), using the amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) technique. Fifteen combinations of EcoRI and MseI primers were used to assess divergence among populations. The data were analyzed using unweighted pair-group method, based on arithmetic averages (UPGMA) bootstrap analysis and principal coordinate analysis. Using a multilocus approach, these populations were divided in two groups, based on genetic fingerprints. Populations from Goianápolis, Santa Tereza, and Viçosa formed one group. Populations from Camocim de São Félix, Paulínia, São João da Barra, Sumaré, and Uberlândia fitted in the second group. These results were congruent with differences in susceptibility of this insect to insecticides, previously identified by other authors.

Clinical Prognostic Factors Predicting Outcomes Of Patients With Recurrent Gbm And Nomograms

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models and nomograms were recently developed to predict survival of patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme (GBM).1 To improve predictions, models should be updated with the most recent patient and disease information. Nomograms predicting patient outcome at the time of disease progression are required. METHODS: Baseline information from 299 patients with recurrent GBM recruited in 8 phase I or II trials of the EORTC Brain Tumor Group was used to evaluate clinical parameters as prognosticators of patient outcome. Univariate (log rank) and multivariate (Cox models) analyses were made to assess the ability of patients' characteristics (age, sex, performance status [WHO PS], and MRC neurological deficit scale), disease history (prior treatments, time since last treatment or initial diagnosis, and administration of steroids or antiepileptics) and disease characteristics (tumor size and number of lesions) to predict progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Bootstrap technique was used for models internal validation. Nomograms were computed to provide individual patients predictions. RESULTS: Poor PS and more than 1 lesion had a significant prognostic impact for both PFS and OS. Antiepileptic drug use was significantly associated with worse PFS. Larger tumors (split by the median of the largest tumor diameter >42.5 mm) and steroid use had shorter OS. Age, sex, neurologic deficit, prior therapies, and time since last therapy or initial diagnosis did not show independent prognostic value for PFS or OS. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis confirms that PS but not age is a major prognostic factor for PFS and OS. Multiple or large tumors and the need to administer steroids significantly increase the risk of progression and death. Nomograms at the recurrence could be used to obtain accurate predictions for the design of new targeted therapy trials or retrospective analyses. (1. T. Gorlia et al., Nomograms for predicting survival of patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma. Lancet Oncol 9 (1): 29-38, 2008.)