Motivation, test scores and economic success

This paper argues that low-stakes test scores, available in surveys, may be partially determinedby test-taking motivation, which is associated with personality traits but not with cognitiveability. Therefore, such test score distributions may not be informative regarding cognitiveability distributions. Moreover, correlations, found in survey data, between high test scoresand economic success may be partially caused by favorable personality traits. To demonstratethese points, I use the coding speed test that was administered without incentives to NationalLongitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY) participants. I suggest that due to its simplicityits scores may especially depend on individuals' test-taking motivation. I show that controllingfor conventional measures of cognitive skills, the coding speed scores are correlated with futureearnings of male NLSY participants. Moreover, the coding speed scores of highly motivated,though less educated, population (potential enlists to the armed forces) are higher than NLSYparticipants' scores. I then use controlled experiments to show that when no performance-basedincentives are provided, participants' characteristics, but not their cognitive skills, affect effortinvested in the coding speed test. Thus, participants with the same ability (measured by theirscores on an incentivized test) have significantly different scores on tests without performance-based incentives.

Review of the literature on reference pricing

This paper reviews the literature on reference pricing (RP) in pharmaceutical markets. The RP strategy for cost containment of expenditure on drugs is analyzed as part of the procurement mechanism. We review the existing literature and the state-of-the-art regarding RP by focusing on its economic effects. In particular, we consider: (1) the institutional context and problem-related factors which appear to underline the need to implement an RP strategy; i.e., its nature, characteristics and the sort of health care problems commonly addressed; (2) how RP operates in practice; that is, how third party-payers (the insurers/buyers) have established the RP systems existing on the international scene (i.e., information methods, monitoring procedures and legislative provisions); (3)the range of effects resulting from particular RP strategies (including effects on choice of appropriate pharmaceuticals, insurer savings, total drug expenditures, prices of referenced and non-referenced products and dynamic efficiency; (4) the market failures which an RP policy is supposed to address and the main advantages and drawbacks which emerge from an analysis of its effects. Results suggest that RP systems achieve better their postulated goals (1) if cost inflation in pharmaceuticals is due to high prices rather than to the excess of prescription rates, (2) when the larger is the existing difference in prices among equivalent drugs, and (3) more important is the actual market for generics.

Monitoring natural hazards

Few subjects have caught the attention of the entire world as much as those dealing with natural hazards. The first decade of this new millennium provides a litany of tragic examples of various hazards that turned into disasters affecting millions of individuals around the globe. The human losses (some 225,000 people) associated with the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, the economic costs (approximately 200 billion USD) of the 2011 Tohoku Japan earthquake, tsunami and reactor event, and the collective social impacts of human tragedies experienced during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 all provide repetitive reminders that we humans are temporary guests occupying a very active and angry planet. Any examples may have been cited here to stress the point that natural events on Earth may, and often do, lead to disasters and catastrophes when humans place themselves into situations of high risk. Few subjects share the true interdisciplinary dependency that characterizes the field of natural hazards. From geology and geophysics to engineering and emergency response to social psychology and economics, the study of natural hazards draws input from an impressive suite of unique and previously independent specializations. Natural hazards provide a common platform to reduce disciplinary boundaries and facilitate a beneficial synergy in the provision of timely and useful information and action on this critical subject matter. As social norms change regarding the concept of acceptable risk and human migration leads to an explosion in the number of megacities, coastal over-crowding and unmanaged habitation in precarious environments such as mountainous slopes, the vulnerability of people and their susceptibility to natural hazards increases dramatically. Coupled with the concerns of changing climates, escalating recovery costs, a growing divergence between more developed and less developed countries, the subject of natural hazards remains on the forefront of issues that affect all people, nations, and environments all the time.This treatise provides a compendium of critical, timely and very detailed information and essential facts regarding the basic attributes of natural hazards and concomitant disasters. The Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards effectively captures and integrates contributions from an international portfolio of almost 300 specialists whose range of expertise addresses over 330 topics pertinent to the field of natural hazards. Disciplinary barriers are overcome in this comprehensive treatment of the subject matter. Clear illustrations and numerous color images enhance the primary aim to communicate and educate. The inclusion of a series of unique ?classic case study? events interspersed throughout the volume provides tangible examples linking concepts, issues, outcomes and solutions. These case studies illustrate different but notable recent, historic and prehistoric events that have shaped the world as we now know it. They provide excellent focal points linking the remaining terms in the volume to the primary field of study. This Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards will remain a standard reference of choice for many years.

Comparative socio-economic evaluation of IBD patients with and without infliximab maintenance therapy

Background: The anti-TNFα agent Infliximab (IFX) is used for the treatment of moderate to severe inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) with insufficient response to conventional immunomodulator therapy. IFX maintenance therapy is expensive and it is unknown if indirect costs (eg. by loss of work productivity) can be reduced by this therapy. Goal: to evaluate the direct and indirect costs of an IBD patient cohort under maintenance IFX compared to a cohort under "conventional" immunomodulator therapy. Methods: Direct and indirect costs of an IBD cohort under IFX and a reference cohort (similar disease activity and location) under conventional immunomodulator therapy (Azathioprine, or 6-MP, or MTX) were retrospectively evaluated over 12 months (January to December 2008). Results: 54 IFX-patients (24f/30m, 37 CD, 10 UC, 7 IC) and 71 non-IFX-patients (38f/33m, 56 CD, 12 UC, 3 IC) were included. IFX patients were younger than non-IFX patients (36 vs. 47 years, P = 0.0003). The mean duration of inpatient stay in hospital (23 in IFX vs. 21 days for non-IFX, P = 0.909) and the hospitalization costs (7,692 in IFX vs. 4,179 SFr for non-IFX, P = 0.4540) did not differ. IFX-patients had significantly more frequently specialist outpatient consultations (8 vs. 4, P < 0.001) and outpatient-related costs (3,633 vs. 2,186 SFr, P <0.001). Total costs for all diagnostic procedures (blood work, endoscopies, radiology) were higher in the IFXcohort (2,265 vs. 1,164 SFr, P < 0.001). Sixty-five percent of IFX-patients had a 100% job employment compared to 80% in the non-IFX cohort (P = 0.001). Conclusions: The direct and indirect costs of maintenance IFX-treated IBD patients are higher compared to IBD patients under conventional immunomodulators. Care should be taken not only to judge the costs as the IFX treated population may represent a cohort with more aggressive disease phenotype, furthermore, quality of life aspects were not assessed.

Integrated Ladinian bio-chronostratigraphy and geochrononology of Monte San Giorgio (Southern Alps, Switzerland)

New biostratigraphic data significantly improve the age assignment of the Ladinian succession of Monte San Giorgio (UNESCO World Heritage List site, Southern Alps, Switzerland), whose world-famous fossil marine vertebrate faunas are now dated to the substage and zone levels. High-resolution single-zircon U-Pb dating was performed using ID-TIMS and chemical abrasion (CA) pre-treatment technique on volcanic ash layers intercalated in the biostratigraphically-defined intervals of the Meride Limestone. It yielded ages of 241.07 +/- 0.13 Ma (Cava superiore beds, P. gredleri Zone), 240.63 +/- 0.13 Ma (Cassina beds, P gredleri/P. archelaus transition Zone) and 239.51 +/- 0.15 Ma (Lower Kalkschieferzone, P. archelaus Zone). Our results suggest that the time interval including the vertebrate-bearing Middle Triassic section spans around 4 Myr and is thus significantly shorter than so far assumed. The San Giorgio Dolomite and the Meride Limestone correlate with intervals of the Buchenstein Formation and the Wengen Formation in the reference section at Bagolino, where the Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) for the base of the Ladinian was defined. The new radio-isotopic ages of the Meride Limestone are up to 2 Myr older than those published for the biostratigraphically-equivalent intervals at Bagolino but they are consistent with the recent re-dating of the underlying Besano Formation, also performed using the CA technique. Average sedimentation rates at Monte San Giorgio are by more than an order of magnitude higher compared to those assumed for the Buchenstein Formation, which formed under sediment-starved pelagic conditions, and reflect prevailing high subsidence and high carbonate mud supply from the adjoining Salvatore/Esino platforms. Finally, the high-resolution U-Pb ages allow a correlation of the vertebrate faunas of the Cava superiore/Cava inferiore beds with the marine vertebrate record of the Prosanto Formation (Upper Austroalpine), so far precluded by the poor biostratigraphic control of the latter.

The Economic Potential of the Spergen Formation in Seven Southeastern Iowa Counties, HR-189, 1978

The middle Mississippian (Meramec Series) units include the Spergen Formation, the St. Louis Limestone and the Ste. Genevieve Formation which outcrop sporadically within a curvilinear subcrop band trending through southeastern and central Iowa. Studies of these units as they occur in Iowa have been cursory in the past, especially with regard to the lowermost occurring Meramecan unit, the Spergen Formation. The Spergen Formation, as it occurs in southeastern Iowa is being considered as a desirable concrete aggregate source. At present, the depth of occurrence, thickness variations and geographic extent are very poorly known and the nature of lithologic variation in Iowa is obscure. Due to a paucity of information of its thickness, extent and nature of rapid lateral facies variations, the full economic potential of the unit has not been realized in some areas of southeastern Iowa. This is especially disheartening in view of the decline of acceptable concrete aggregate source materials in southeastern Iowa. This report is an attempt to synthesize subsurface and surface data in order to present a more coherent picture of the depth, thickness and lithologic variations of the Spergen Formation. Recommendations have been made for the exploration of specific areas within the field area for future development of surface quarrying and subsurface mining operations where thickness, lithology and depth characteristics deem consideration. Due to the lack of adequate data points in some quadrants of the field area, some of the recommendations are drawn on rather tenuous grounds, but a concerted effort has been made to be conservative in these judgements.

Developing Iowa’s Bio-science Workforce: The Role of the Community Colleges of Iowa In Creating Skilled Workers for the Emerging Bio-science/Biotechnology Sector, 2006

The Iowa economy is undergoing great change. Among the sectors deemed important to Iowa’s economic future is bioscience. Definition of what constitutes the bioscience sector but suggests it includes agricultural, medical, plant-life sciences, and related industrial activity.

Transportation and Iowa's Economic Future, 1993

This is a study of how transportation policy can be fashioned to improve Iowa's long-term economic prospects. The research focuses on the state level and covers pricing, resource allocation, investment, and other issues that directly affect the performance of public facilities that support transportation of goods and people to and from points in Iowa. Chapter 1 is an introduction. Chapter 2 begins with an assessment of how Iowa's economy is changing, both functionally and spatially. Commuting patterns and methods of goods movement are then discussed. The purpose of this analysis is to provide a context for the exploration of transportation policy issues in subsequent chapters. In Chapter 3 a framework is established for evaluating changes in transportation policies. A working definition of economic development is given and the role of government policies in making an area more attractive to economic activity is considered. Chapter 4 analyzes public policy options for Iowa's roads and highways. These policy options are intended to help the state compete for economic activity. Chapter 5 assesses alternative investment strategies for major navigational facilities on the upper Mississippi River. Chapter 6 examines major transportation policy issues in Iowa's agricultural sector. The current magnitude of agricultural shipments and the roles of several modes are presented. After focusing on issues related to railroad competitiveness, the analysis turns to how Iowa's rural roads should be financed. The need for joint investment and pricing decisions affecting waterways, railroads, and rural roads is stressed. Chapter 7 examines the current status of freight transportation in Iowa. An assessment is made of issues related to trucking and of intermodal transportation and its potential for cost-effective shipping to and from businesses in Iowa. Chapter 8 summarizes the key findings of this study, offering ten recommendations. These recommendations relate to transportation as a means of facilitating economic development.

Can wild ungulate carcasses provide enough biomass to maintain avian scavenger populations? An empirical assessment using a bio-inspired computational model

Background: The reduction in the amount of food available for European avian scavengers as a consequence of restrictive public health policies is a concern for managers and conservationists. Since 2002, the application of several sanitary regulations has limited the availability of feeding resources provided by domestic carcasses, but theoretical studies assessing whether the availability of food resources provided by wild ungulates are enough to cover energetic requirements are lacking. Methodology/Findings: We assessed food provided by a wild ungulate population in two areas of NE Spain inhabited by three vulture species and developed a P System computational model to assess the effects of the carrion resources provided on their population dynamics. We compared the real population trend with to a hypothetical scenario in which only food provided by wild ungulates was available. Simulation testing of the model suggests that wild ungulates constitute an important food resource in the Pyrenees and the vulture population inhabiting this area could grow if only the food provided by wild ungulates would be available. On the contrary, in the Pre-Pyrenees there is insufficient food to cover the energy requirements of avian scavenger guilds, declining sharply if biomass from domestic animals would not be available. Conclusions/Significance: Our results suggest that public health legislation can modify scavenger population trends if a large number of domestic ungulate carcasses disappear from the mountains. In this case, food provided by wild ungulates could be not enough and supplementary feeding could be necessary if other alternative food resources are not available (i.e. the reintroduction of wild ungulates), preferably in European Mediterranean scenarios sharing similar and socio-economic conditions where there are low densities of wild ungulates. Managers should anticipate the conservation actions required by assessing food availability and the possible scenarios in order to make the most suitable decisions.

Points to consider for prioritizing clinical genetic testing services: a European consensus process oriented at accountability for reasonableness.

Given the cost constraints of the European health-care systems, criteria are needed to decide which genetic services to fund from the public budgets, if not all can be covered. To ensure that high-priority services are available equitably within and across the European countries, a shared set of prioritization criteria would be desirable. A decision process following the accountability for reasonableness framework was undertaken, including a multidisciplinary EuroGentest/PPPC-ESHG workshop to develop shared prioritization criteria. Resources are currently too limited to fund all the beneficial genetic testing services available in the next decade. Ethically and economically reflected prioritization criteria are needed. Prioritization should be based on considerations of medical benefit, health need and costs. Medical benefit includes evidence of benefit in terms of clinical benefit, benefit of information for important life decisions, benefit for other people apart from the person tested and the patient-specific likelihood of being affected by the condition tested for. It may be subject to a finite time window. Health need includes the severity of the condition tested for and its progression at the time of testing. Further discussion and better evidence is needed before clearly defined recommendations can be made or a prioritization algorithm proposed. To our knowledge, this is the first time a clinical society has initiated a decision process about health-care prioritization on a European level, following the principles of accountability for reasonableness. We provide points to consider to stimulate this debate across the EU and to serve as a reference for improving patient management.

Estimation of reference curves for the urinary steroid metabolome in the first year of life in healthy children : Tracing the complexity of human postnatal steroidogenesis.

CONTEXT: Complex steroid disorders such as P450 oxidoreductase deficiency or apparent cortisone reductase deficiency may be recognized by steroid profiling using chromatographic mass spectrometric methods. These methods are highly specific and sensitive, and provide a complete spectrum of steroid metabolites in a single measurement of one sample which makes them superior to immunoassays. The steroid metabolome during the fetal-neonatal transition is characterized by (a) the metabolites of the fetal-placental unit at birth, (b) the fetal adrenal androgens until its involution 3-6 months postnatally, and (c) the steroid metabolites produced by the developing endocrine organs. All these developmental events change the steroid metabolome in an age- and sex-dependent manner during the first year of life. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to provide normative values for the urinary steroid metabolome of healthy newborns at short time intervals in the first year of life. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, longitudinal study to measure 67 urinary steroid metabolites in 21 male and 22 female term healthy newborn infants at 13 time-points from week 1 to week 49 of life. Urine samples were collected from newborn infants before discharge from hospital and from healthy infants at home. Steroid metabolites were measured by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and steroid concentrations corrected for urinary creatinine excretion were calculated. RESULTS: 61 steroids showed age and 15 steroids sex specificity. Highest urinary steroid concentrations were found in both sexes for progesterone derivatives, in particular 20α-DH-5α-DH-progesterone, and for highly polar 6α-hydroxylated glucocorticoids. The steroids peaked at week 3 and decreased by ∼80% at week 25 in both sexes. The decline of progestins, androgens and estrogens was more pronounced than of glucocorticoids whereas the excretion of corticosterone and its metabolites and of mineralocorticoids remained constant during the first year of life. CONCLUSION: The urinary steroid profile changes dramatically during the first year of life and correlates with the physiologic developmental changes during the fetal-neonatal transition. Thus detailed normative data during this time period permit the use of steroid profiling as a powerful diagnostic tool.

Fast and economic immobilization methods described for non-commercial Pseudomonas lipases

There is an increasing interest to seek new enzyme preparations for the development of new products derived from bioprocesses to obtain alternative bio-based materials. In this context, four non-commercial lipases from Pseudomonas species were prepared, immobilized on different low-cost supports, and examined for potential biotechnological applications. Results: To reduce costs of eventual scaling-up, the new lipases were obtained directly from crude cell extracts or from growth culture supernatants, and immobilized by simple adsorption on Accurel EP100, Accurel MP1000 and Celite (R) 545. The enzymes evaluated were LipA and LipC from Pseudomonas sp. 42A2, a thermostable mutant of LipC, and LipI. 3 from Pseudomonas CR611, which were produced in either homologous or heterologous hosts. Best immobilization results were obtained on Accurel EP100 for LipA and on Accurel MP1000 for LipC and its thermostable variant. Lip I. 3, requiring a refolding step, was poorly immobilized on all supports tested ( best results for Accurel MP1000). To test the behavior of immobilized lipases, they were assayed in triolein transesterification, where the best results were observed for lipases immobilized on Accurel MP1000. Conclusions: The suggested protocol does not require protein purification and uses crude enzymes immobilized by a fast adsorption technique on low-cost supports, which makes the method suitable for an eventual scaling up aimed at biotechnological applications. Therefore, a fast, simple and economic method for lipase preparation and immobilization has been set up. The low price of the supports tested and the simplicity of the procedure, skipping the tedious and expensive purification steps, will contribute to cost reduction in biotechnological lipase-catalyzed processes.

The economic cost of hospital malnutrition in Europe; a narrative review

Background: Malnutrition among hospitalized patients increases length of stay (LOS) and carries extra hospitalization costs. Objective: To review the impact of malnutrition on hospital LOS and costs in Europe. Methods: PubMed and Google Scholar search. All articles from January 2004 until November 2014 were identified. Reference lists of relevant articles were also manually searched. Results: Ten studies on LOS and nine studies on costs were reviewed. The methods used to assess malnutrition and to calculate costs differed considerably between studies. Malnutrition led to an increased LOS ranging from 2.4 to 7.2 days. Among hospitalized patients, malnutrition led to an additional individual cost ranging between 1640 V and 5829 V. At the national level, the costs of malnutrition ranged between 32.8 million V and 1.2 billion V. Expressed as percentage of national health expenditures, the values ranged between 2.1% and 10%. Conclusions: In Europe, malnutrition leads to an increase in LOS and in hospital costs, both at the individual and the national level. Standardization of methods and results reported is needed to adequately compare results between countries. © 2015 European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trust in inter-organizational relationships

Trust in inter-organizational collaborative relationships has attracted substantial research interest among academics and practitioners. Previous studies have concentrated on the benefits of trust to business outcomes and economic performance, as it is considered to be a source of competitive advantage. Despite this increased level of interest, there is no consensus, much less overall agreement, about how it should be conceptualized or about the number of dimensions it incorporates. On the inter-organizational level there is an obvious challenge in defining both the trusting party and the objects of trust. Thus, the notion of trust as an under-theorized and poorly understood phenomenon still holds. Hence, the motivation of this study was fuelled by the need to increase our knowledge and understanding of the role and nature of trust in inter-organizational collaborative relationships. It is posited that there is a call for more understanding about its antecedents and consequences, as well as about the very concept in inter-organizational collaborative relationships. The study is divided into two parts. The first part gives a general overview, and the second part comprises four research publications. Both qualitative and quantitative research methodology is utilized. A multi-method research design was used because it provides different levels of data and different perspectives on the phenomenon. The results of this study reveal that trust incorporates three dimensions on both the individual and the organizational level: capability, goodwill, and self-reference. Trust develops from the reputation and behavior of the trusted party. It appears from this study that trust is clearly directed towards both individual boundary spanners and the counterpart company itself – i.e. not only to one or the other. The trusting party, on the other hand, is always an individual, and not the organization per se. Trust increases collaboration benefits and lowers collaboration drawbacks, thus having a positive effect on relationship performance. The major contribution of this study lies in uncovering the critical points and drawbacks in prior research and thereby in responding to the highlighted challenges. The way in which these challenges were addressed offers contributions to three major issues in the emerging theory of trust in the inter-organizational context: firstly, this study clarifies the trustor-trustee discussion; secondly, it conceptualizes trust as existing on both individual and organizational levels; and thirdly, it provides more information about the antecedents of trust and the ways in which it affects relationship performance.

Maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2007 and in 2015

The Gulf of Finland is said to be one of the densest operated sea areas in the world. It is a shallow and economically vulnerable sea area with dense passenger and cargo traffic of which petroleum transports have a share of over 50 %. The winter conditions add to the risks of maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland. It is widely believed that the growth of maritime transportation will continue also in the future. The Gulf of Finland is surrounded by three very different national economies with, different maritime transportation structures. Finland is a country of high GDP/per capita with a diversified economic structure. The number of ports is large and the maritime transportation consists of many types of cargoes: raw materials, industrial products, consumer goods, coal and petroleum products, and the Russian transit traffic of e.g. new cars and consumer goods. Russia is a large country with huge growth potential; in recent years, the expansion of petroleum exports has lead to a strong economic growth, which is also apparent in the growth of maritime transports. Russia has been expanding its port activities in the Gulf of Finland and it is officially aiming to transport its own imports and exports through the Russian ports in the future; now they are being transported to great extend through the Finnish, Estonian and other Baltic ports. Russia has five ports in the Gulf of Finland. Estonia has also experienced fast economic growth, but the growth has been slowing down already during the past couples of years. The size of its economy is small compared to Russia, which means the transported tonnes cannot be very massive. However, relatively large amounts of the Russian petroleum exports have been transported through the Estonian ports. The future of the Russian transit traffic in Estonia looks nevertheless uncertain and it remains to be seen how it will develop and if Estonia is able to find replacing cargoes if the Russian transit traffic will come to an end in the Estonian ports. Estonia’s own import and export consists of forestry products, metals or other raw materials and consumer goods. Estonia has many ports on the shores of the Gulf of Finland, but the port of Tallinn dominates the cargo volumes. In 2007, 263 M tonnes of cargoes were transported in the maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland, of which the share of petroleum products was 56 %. 23 % of the cargoes were loaded or unloaded in the Finnish ports, 60 % in the Russian ports and 17 % in the Estonian ports. The largest ports were Primorsk (74.2 M tonnes) St. Petersburg (59.5 M tonnes), Tallinn (35.9 M tonnes), Sköldvik (19.8 M tonnes), Vysotsk (16.5 M tonnes) and Helsinki (13.4 M) tonnes. Approximately 53 600 ship calls were made in the ports of the Gulf of Finland. The densest traffic was found in the ports of St. Petersburg (14 651 ship calls), Helsinki (11 727 ship calls) and Tallinn (10 614 ship calls) in 2007. The transportation scenarios are usually based on the assumption that the amount of transports follows the development of the economy, although also other factors influence the development of transportation, e.g. government policy, environmental aspects, and social and behavioural trends. The relationship between the development of transportation and the economy is usually analyzed in terms of the development of GDP and trade. When the GDP grows to a certain level, especially the international transports increase because countries of high GDP produce, consume and thus transport more. An effective transportation system is also a precondition for the economic development. In this study, the following factors were taken into consideration when formulating the future scenarios: maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland 2007, economic development, development of key industries, development of infrastructure and environmental aspects in relation to maritime transportation. The basic starting points for the three alternative scenarios were: • the slow growth scenario: economic recession • the average growth scenario: economy will recover quickly from current instability • the strong growth scenario: the most optimistic views on development will realize According to the slow growth scenario, the total tonnes for the maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland would be 322.4 M tonnes in 2015, which would mean a growth of 23 % compared to 2007. In the average growth scenario, the total tonnes were estimated to be 431.6 M tonnes – a growth of 64 %, and in the strong growth scenario 507.2 M tonnes – a growth of 93%. These tonnes were further divided into petroleum products and other cargoes by country, into export, import and domestic traffic by country, and between the ports. For petroleum products, the share of crude oil and oil products was estimated and the number of tanker calls in 2015 was calculated for each scenario. However, the future development of maritime transportation in the GoF is dependent on so many societal and economic variables that it is not realistic to predict one exact point estimate value for the cargo tonnes for a certain scenario. Plenty of uncertainty is related both to the degree in which the scenario will come true as well as to the cause-effect relations between the different variables. For these reasons, probability distributions for each scenario were formulated by an expert group. As a result, a range for the total tonnes of each scenario was formulated and they are as follows: the slow growth scenario: 280.8 – 363 M tonnes (expectation value 322.4 M tonnes)