Application of data assimilation to ocean and climate prediction

Ocean prediction systems are now able to analyse and predict temperature, salinity and velocity structures within the ocean by assimilating measurements of the ocean’s temperature and salinity into physically based ocean models. Data assimilation combines current estimates of state variables, such as temperature and salinity, from a computational model with measurements of the ocean and atmosphere in order to improve forecasts and reduce uncertainty in the forecast accuracy. Data assimilation generally works well with ocean models away from the equator but has been found to induce vigorous and unrealistic overturning circulations near the equator. A pressure correction method was developed at the University of Reading and the Met Office to control these circulations using ideas from control theory and an understanding of equatorial dynamics. The method has been used for the last 10 years in seasonal forecasting and ocean prediction systems at the Met Office and European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). It has been an important element in recent re-analyses of the ocean heat uptake that mitigates climate change.

A systematic method of parameterisation estimation using data assimilation

In numerical weather prediction, parameterisations are used to simulate missing physics in the model. These can be due to a lack of scientific understanding or a lack of computing power available to address all the known physical processes. Parameterisations are sources of large uncertainty in a model as parameter values used in these parameterisations cannot be measured directly and hence are often not well known; and the parameterisations themselves are also approximations of the processes present in the true atmosphere. Whilst there are many efficient and effective methods for combined state/parameter estimation in data assimilation (DA), such as state augmentation, these are not effective at estimating the structure of parameterisations. A new method of parameterisation estimation is proposed that uses sequential DA methods to estimate errors in the numerical models at each space-time point for each model equation. These errors are then fitted to pre-determined functional forms of missing physics or parameterisations that are based upon prior information. We applied the method to a one-dimensional advection model with additive model error, and it is shown that the method can accurately estimate parameterisations, with consistent error estimates. Furthermore, it is shown how the method depends on the quality of the DA results. The results indicate that this new method is a powerful tool in systematic model improvement.

A parallel data assimilation model for oceanographic observations

In this paper we describe the development of a program that aims at the optimal integration of observed data in an oceanographic model describ

An idealized study of coupled atmosphere-ocean 4D-Var in the presence of model error

Atmosphere only and ocean only variational data assimilation (DA) schemes are able to use window lengths that are optimal for the error growth rate, non-linearity and observation density of the respective systems. Typical window lengths are 6-12 hours for the atmosphere and 2-10 days for the ocean. However, in the implementation of coupled DA schemes it has been necessary to match the window length of the ocean to that of the atmosphere, which may potentially sacrifice the accuracy of the ocean analysis in order to provide a more balanced coupled state. This paper investigates how extending the window length in the presence of model error affects both the analysis of the coupled state and the initialized forecast when using coupled DA with differing degrees of coupling. Results are illustrated using an idealized single column model of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. It is found that the analysis error from an uncoupled DA scheme can be smaller than that from a coupled analysis at the initial time, due to faster error growth in the coupled system. However, this does not necessarily lead to a more accurate forecast due to imbalances in the coupled state. Instead coupled DA is more able to update the initial state to reduce the impact of the model error on the accuracy of the forecast. The effect of model error is potentially most detrimental in the weakly coupled formulation due to the inconsistency between the coupled model used in the outer loop and uncoupled models used in the inner loop.

Melatonin and the time window for the expression of the alpha 8 nicotinic acetylcholine receptor in the membrane of chick retinal cells in culture

We have previously shown that melatonin influences the development of alpha 8 nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (nAChR) by measurement of the acetylcholine-induced increase in the extracellular acidification rate (ECAR) in chick retinal cell cultures. Cellular differentiation that takes place between DIV (days in vitro) 4 and DIV 5 yields cells expressing alpha 8 nAChR and results in a significant increase in the ECAR acetylcholine-induced. Blocking melatonin receptors with luzindole for 48 h suppresses the development of functional alpha 8 nAChR. Here we investigated the time window for the effect of melatonin on retinal cell development in culture, and whether this effect was dependent on an increase in the expression of alpha 8 nAChR. First, we confirmed that luzindole was inhibiting the effects of endogenous melatonin, since it increases 2-[(125)I] iodomelatonin (23 pM) binding sites density in a time-dependent manner. Then we observed that acute (15, 60 min, or 12 h) luzindole treatment did not impair acetylcholine-induced increase in the ECAR mediated by activation of alpha 8 nAChR at DIV 5, while chronic treatment (from DIV 3 or DIV 4 till DIV 5, or DIV 3.5 till DIV 4.5) led to a time-dependent reduction of the increase in the acetylcholine-induced ECAR. The binding parameters for [(125)I]-alpha-bungarotoxin (10 nM) sites in membrane were unaffected by melatonin suppression that started at DIV 3. Thus, melatonin surges in the time window that occurs at the final stages of chick retinal cell differentiation in culture is essential for development of the cells expressing alpha 8 nAChR subtype in full functional form. (C) 2010 ISDN. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Periodic window arising in the parameter space of an impact oscillator

In the bi-dimensional parameter space of an impact-pair system, shrimp-shaped periodic windows are embedded in chaotic regions. We show that a weak periodic forcing generates new periodic windows near the unperturbed one with its shape and periodicity. Thus, the new periodic windows are parameter range extensions for which the controlled periodic oscillations substitute the chaotic oscillations. We identify periodic and chaotic attractors by their largest Lyapunov exponents. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of roving-window and search-window techniques for characterising landscape morphometry

Brazil`s State of Sao Paulo Research Foundation

A new Home, far from Home : The assimilation process of women involved in intercultural marriages based on Internet meeting

The internet has revolutionized the way we socialize, and as a consequence the way to love. The new communication technologies have facilitated intercultural relationships. Nowadays family relations are one of the major factors in immigration to European countries. Family relations means persons who arrive as family dependents and in accordance with laws regulating family reunification. This thesis aims to apply the classical assimilation theory stated by Milton Gordon (1964), which formulates a series of assimilation stages through which an individual must pass in order to be completely assimilated. In accordance with this theory, marriage is the final phase for a newcomer to fully incorporate into the host society. Thus, based on this presumption and other contemporary theories, the present study has analysed how women who get involved in intercultural marriages based on internet meeting experience these assimilation stages and evaluated the resources used by respondents to incorporate themselves into Swedish society.The main goal of the study was to determine if jumping to the last stage of assimilation does assure the incorporation in the social or/and labour spheres and the findings demonstrate that even though husbands are a valuable resource for assimilation, several cultural issues in Swedish society make it difficult to assure success for the newcomers.On the other hand, Sweden is a country with a strong national sentiment and the assimilation of immigrants still is an important issue to deal with. The Swedish Integration Board has disappeared and major projects for integration have been left in the hands of the municipalities or the Migration Board, institutions that still do not know how to deal with this dilemma.

Effect Of Different Hydrological Model Structures On The Assimilation Of Distributed Uncertain Observations

The reliable evaluation of the flood forecasting is a crucial problem for assessing flood risk and consequent damages. Different hydrological models (distributed, semi-distributed or lumped) have been proposed in order to deal with this issue. The choice of the proper model structure has been investigated by many authors and it is one of the main sources of uncertainty for a correct evaluation of the outflow hydrograph. In addition, the recent increasing of data availability makes possible to update hydrological models as response of real-time observations. For these reasons, the aim of this work it is to evaluate the effect of different structure of a semi-distributed hydrological model in the assimilation of distributed uncertain discharge observations. The study was applied to the Bacchiglione catchment, located in Italy. The first methodological step was to divide the basin in different sub-basins according to topographic characteristics. Secondly, two different structures of the semi-distributed hydrological model were implemented in order to estimate the outflow hydrograph. Then, synthetic observations of uncertain value of discharge were generated, as a function of the observed and simulated value of flow at the basin outlet, and assimilated in the semi-distributed models using a Kalman Filter. Finally, different spatial patterns of sensors location were assumed to update the model state as response of the uncertain discharge observations. The results of this work pointed out that, overall, the assimilation of uncertain observations can improve the hydrologic model performance. In particular, it was found that the model structure is an important factor, of difficult characterization, since can induce different forecasts in terms of outflow discharge. This study is partly supported by the FP7 EU Project WeSenseIt.

Parameterization Of Turbulence Models Using 3DVAR Data Assimilation

In this research the 3DVAR data assimilation scheme is implemented in the numerical model DIVAST in order to optimize the performance of the numerical model by selecting an appropriate turbulence scheme and tuning its parameters. Two turbulence closure schemes: the Prandtl mixing length model and the two-equation k-ε model were incorporated into DIVAST and examined with respect to their universality of application, complexity of solutions, computational efficiency and numerical stability. A square harbour with one symmetrical entrance subject to tide-induced flows was selected to investigate the structure of turbulent flows. The experimental part of the research was conducted in a tidal basin. A significant advantage of such laboratory experiment is a fully controlled environment where domain setup and forcing are user-defined. The research shows that the Prandtl mixing length model and the two-equation k-ε model, with default parameterization predefined according to literature recommendations, overestimate eddy viscosity which in turn results in a significant underestimation of velocity magnitudes in the harbour. The data assimilation of the model-predicted velocity and laboratory observations significantly improves model predictions for both turbulence models by adjusting modelled flows in the harbour to match de-errored observations. 3DVAR allows also to identify and quantify shortcomings of the numerical model. Such comprehensive analysis gives an optimal solution based on which numerical model parameters can be estimated. The process of turbulence model optimization by reparameterization and tuning towards optimal state led to new constants that may be potentially applied to complex turbulent flows, such as rapidly developing flows or recirculating flows.

Space Window*: an exhibition devoted to Man in Space and Space in Art

Call for submissions to participate in a show in the Bell Gallery, List Art Building at Brown University. Co-sponsored by the RI State Council on the Arts and the Providence Inner City Arts Association.

The Genome Sequence of Taurine Cattle: A Window to Ruminant Biology and Evolution

To understand the biology and evolution of ruminants, the cattle genome was sequenced to about sevenfold coverage. The cattle genome contains a minimum of 22,000 genes, with a core set of 14,345 orthologs shared among seven mammalian species of which 1217 are absent or undetected in noneutherian (marsupial or monotreme) genomes. Cattle-specific evolutionary breakpoint regions in chromosomes have a higher density of segmental duplications, enrichment of repetitive elements, and species-specific variations in genes associated with lactation and immune responsiveness. Genes involved in metabolism are generally highly conserved, although five metabolic genes are deleted or extensively diverged from their human orthologs. The cattle genome sequence thus provides a resource for understanding mammalian evolution and accelerating livestock genetic improvement for milk and meat production.