Essays in asset price bubbles

This thesis studies the field of asset price bubbles. It is comprised of three independent chapters. Each of these chapters either directly or indirectly analyse the existence or implications of asset price bubbles. The type of bubbles assumed in each of these chapters is consistent with rational expectations. Thus, the kind of price bubbles investigated here are known as rational bubbles in the literature. The following describes the three chapters. Chapter 1: This chapter attempts to explain the recent US housing price bubble by developing a heterogeneous agent endowment economy asset pricing model with risky housing, endogenous collateral and defaults. Investment in housing is subject to an idiosyncratic risk and some mortgages are defaulted in equilibrium. We analytically derive the leverage or the endogenous loan to value ratio. This variable comes from a limited participation constraint in a one period mortgage contract with monitoring costs. Our results show that low values of housing investment risk produces a credit easing effect encouraging excess leverage and generates credit driven rational price bubbles in the housing good. Conversely, high values of housing investment risk produces a credit crunch characterized by tight borrowing constraints, low leverage and low house prices. Furthermore, the leverage ratio was found to be procyclical and the rate of defaults countercyclical consistent with empirical evidence. Chapter 2: It is widely believed that financial assets have considerable persistence and are susceptible to bubbles. However, identification of this persistence and potential bubbles is not straightforward. This chapter tests for price bubbles in the United States housing market accounting for long memory and structural breaks. The intuition is that the presence of long memory negates price bubbles while the presence of breaks could artificially induce bubble behaviour. Hence, we use procedures namely semi-parametric Whittle and parametric ARFIMA procedures that are consistent for a variety of residual biases to estimate the value of the long memory parameter, d, of the log rent-price ratio. We find that the semi-parametric estimation procedures robust to non-normality and heteroskedasticity errors found far more bubble regions than parametric ones. A structural break was identified in the mean and trend of all the series which when accounted for removed bubble behaviour in a number of regions. Importantly, the United States housing market showed evidence for rational bubbles at both the aggregate and regional levels. In the third and final chapter, we attempt to answer the following question: To what extend should individuals participate in the stock market and hold risky assets over their lifecycle? We answer this question by employing a lifecycle consumption-portfolio choice model with housing, labour income and time varying predictable returns where the agents are constrained in the level of their borrowing. We first analytically characterize and then numerically solve for the optimal asset allocation on the risky asset comparing the return predictability case with that of IID returns. We successfully resolve the puzzles and find equity holding and participation rates close to the data. We also find that return predictability substantially alter both the level of risky portfolio allocation and the rate of stock market participation. High factor (dividend-price ratio) realization and high persistence of factor process indicative of stock market bubbles raise the amount of wealth invested in risky assets and the level of stock market participation, respectively. Conversely, rare disasters were found to bring down these rates, the change being severe for investors in the later years of the life-cycle. Furthermore, investors following time varying returns (return predictability) hedged background risks significantly better than the IID ones.

Is financial instability male-driven? Gender and cognitive skills in experimental asset markets

The hypothesis that price stability would reliably increase with the fraction of women operating in financial markets has been frequently suggested in policy discussions. To test this hypothesis we conducted 10 male-only, 10 female-only and 10 mixed-gender experimental asset markets, and compared the effects of gender composition, confidence, risk attitude and cognitive skills. Male and female markets have comparable volatility and deviations from fundamentals, whereas mixed-gender markets are substantially more stable. On the other hand, higher average cognitive skills of the group are associated with reduced market volatility. Individual-level analysis shows that subjects with higher cognitive skills trade at prices closer to fundamental values and earn significantly higher profits; similarly, mixed markets exhibit lower mispricing, particularly for traders with lower cognitive skills. Our results are demonstrated to hold in other experimental asset market studies, suggesting that a mixed-gender composition reduces mispricing across different types of asset markets.

Liquidity, Governance and Adverse Selection in Asset Pricing

A plethora of recent literature on asset pricing provides plenty of empirical evidence on the importance of liquidity, governance and adverse selection of equity on pricing of assets together with more traditional factors such as market beta and the Fama-French factors. However, literature has usually stressed that these factors are priced individually. In this dissertation we argue that these factors may be related to each other, hence not only individual but also joint tests of their significance is called for. In the three related essays, we examine the liquidity premium in the context of the finer three-digit SIC industry classification, joint importance of liquidity and governance factors as well as governance and adverse selection. Recent studies by Core, Guay and Rusticus (2006) and Ben-Rephael, Kadan and Wohl (2010) find that governance and liquidity premiums are dwindling in the last few years. One reason could be that liquidity is very unevenly distributed across industries. This could affect the interpretation of prior liquidity studies. Thus, in the first chapter we analyze the relation of industry clustering and liquidity risk following a finer industry classification suggested by Johnson, Moorman and Sorescu (2009). In the second chapter, we examine the dwindling influence of the governance factor if taken simultaneously with liquidity. We argue that this happens since governance characteristics are potentially a proxy for information asymmetry that may be better captured by market liquidity of a company’s shares. Hence, we jointly examine both the factors, namely, governance and liquidity – in a series of standard asset pricing tests. Our results reconfirm the importance of governance and liquidity in explaining stock returns thus independently corroborating the findings of Amihud (2002) and Gompers, Ishii and Metrick (2003). Moreover, governance is not subsumed by liquidity. Lastly, we analyze the relation of governance and adverse selection, and again corroborate previous findings of a priced governance factor. Furthermore, we ascertain the importance of microstructure measures in asset pricing by employing Huang and Stoll’s (1997) method to extract an adverse selection variable and finding evidence for its explanatory power in four-factor regressions.

Asset Management: Identifying and Evaluating our Roadway System

Historically SCDOT ranks in the top 10 each year for highway conditions and cost-effectiveness as rated by the Reason Foundation. With billions of dollars invested and billions to be invested it makes sense to invest the public's tax dollars as wisely as possible. Therefore, assessing what we have or better yet what condition what we have is in can be vital to public safety and setting priorities. The focus of this project is on the maintenance responsibility of Roadway Inspection as outlined in SCDOT Engineering Directive Memorandum #8. This memorandum is a portion of the way SCDOT provides for the safety of the traveling public and keeps South Carolina's most expensive asset in working order.

Improving the Asset Inventory Process

The South Carolina Department of Education (SCDE) is required by the State of South Carolina to provide an accurate physical count of all Capitalized assets listed on their inventory by the end of the fiscal year. There were no published procedures for employees to follow as guidelines for identifying, tracking, reporting and disposing of assets. This has led to errors in identifying items that require asset numbers, completing the shopping carts and transfer/disposal of assets. These errors cause additional work for the Asset Accountant, Procurement Analyst and Accounts Payable Supervisor. The scope of this project is to improve the fixed asset process by developing and publishing asset inventory procedures to ensure accountability and accuracy of all item listed on SCDE inventory.

MARS (Media Asset Retrieval System): Puget Sound’s Digital Archive

The MARS (Media Asset Retrieval System) Project is the collaborative effort of public broadcasters,libraries and schools in the Puget Sound region to create a digital online resource that provides access to content produced by public broadcasters via the public libraries. Convergence ConsortiumThe Convergence Consortium is a model for community collaboration, including organizations such as public broadcasters, libraries, museums, and schools in the Puget Sound region to assess the needs of their constituents and pool resources to develop solutions to meet those needs. Specifically, the archives of public broadcasters have been identified as significant resources for the local communities and nationally. These resources can be accessed on the broadcasters websites, and through libraries and used by schools, and integrated with text and photographic archives from other partners.MARS’ goalCreate an online resource that provides effective access to the content produced locally by KCTS (Seattle PBS affiliate) and KUOW (Seattle NPR affiliate). The broadcasts will be made searchable using the CPB Metadata Element Set (under development) and controlled vocabularies (to be developed). This will ensure a user friendly search and navigation mechanism and user satisfaction.Furthermore, the resource can search the local public library’s catalog concurrently and provide the user with relevant TV material, radio material, and books on a given subject.The ultimate goal is to produce a model that can be used in cities around the country.The current phase of the project assesses the community’s need, analyzes the current operational systems, and makes recommendations for the design of the resource.Deliverables• Literature review of the issues surrounding the organization, description and representation of media assets• Needs assessment report of internal and external stakeholders• Profile of the systems in the area of managing and organizing media assetsfor public broadcasting nationwideActivities• Analysis of information seeking behavior• Analysis of collaboration within the respective organizations• Analysis of the scope and context of the proposed system• Examining the availability of information resources and exchangeof resources among users

Puget Sound’s MARS (Media Asset Retrieval System) Digital Library

The MARS (Media Asset Retrieval System) Project is a collaboration between public broadcasters, libraries and schools in the Puget Sound region to assess the needs of their constituents and pool resources to develop solutions to meet those needs. The Project’s ultimate goal is to create a digital online resource that will provide access to content produced by public broadcasters and libraries. The MARS Project is funded by a grant from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB) Television Future Fund. Convergence ConsortiumThe Convergence Consortium is a model for community collaboration, including representatives from public broadcasting, libraries and schools in the Puget Sound region. They meet regularly to consider collaborative efforts that will be mutually beneficial to their institutions and constituents. Specifically, the archives of public broadcasters have been identified as significant resources that can be accessed through libraries and used by schools, and integrated with text and photographic archives from other partners.Using the work-centered framework, we collected data through interviews with nine engineers and observation of their searching while they performed their regular, job-related searches on the Web. The framework was used to analyze the data on two levels: 1) the activities and organizational relationships and constrains of work domains, and 2) users’ cognitive and social activities and their subjective preferences during searching.

Trans-national cooperation: an asset in the Portuguese overseas trade. Foreigners operating in the Portuguese overseas trade, 1580-1590

This paper aims to discuss the role of foreign merchants, operating from Portugal, in the Portuguese overseas trade, during the first ten years of Iberian Union. The focus is not in products or routes, but in the mechanisms of association of such merchants. Iberian Union created a legal framework which prohibited the interference and trade of Portuguese agents in the Spanish Empire and vice-versa. Due to the imperialist wars of the Habsburgs, the Portuguese Empire also suffered from Dutch and English rivalry both in the Indic and in the Atlantic and also from the embargos of Dutch and English products and ships in Iberian ports. In such conjuncture, how did merchants related with each other? What was the impact of the political union of the Portuguese and Spanish crowns in trading associations? The used data sources are the notarial contracts of Lisbon for the same period. The paper highlights the role of Castilian merchants in the Portuguese trade, but it also stresses that Iberian partnerships have prevailed before 1580. The role of other merchants, such as Flemish/Dutch, Germans, Italians and French, is also considered. The paper discusses how and why did these merchants join in trans-national partnerships and what was their role in the Portuguese trade network at the time.

Metrological characterization of sensors and instrumentation for distribution grid monitoring and electrical asset diagnostics

The Smart Grid needs a large amount of information to be operated and day by day new information is required to improve the operation performance. It is also fundamental that the available information is reliable and accurate. Therefore, the role of metrology is crucial, especially if applied to the distribution grid monitoring and the electrical assets diagnostics. This dissertation aims at better understanding the sensors and the instrumentation employed by the power system operators in the above-mentioned applications and studying new solutions. Concerning the research on the measurement applied to the electrical asset diagnostics: an innovative drone-based measurement system is proposed for monitoring medium voltage surge arresters. This system is described, and its metrological characterization is presented. On the other hand, the research regarding the measurements applied to the grid monitoring consists of three parts. The first part concerns the metrological characterization of the electronic energy meters’ operation under off-nominal power conditions. Original test procedures have been designed for both frequency and harmonic distortion as influence quantities, aiming at defining realistic scenarios. The second part deals with medium voltage inductive current transformers. An in-depth investigation on their accuracy behavior in presence of harmonic distortion is carried out by applying realistic current waveforms. The accuracy has been evaluated by means of the composite error index and its approximated version. Based on the same test setup, a closed-form expression for the measured current total harmonic distortion uncertainty estimation has been experimentally validated. The metrological characterization of a virtual phasor measurement unit is the subject of the third and last part: first, a calibrator has been designed and the uncertainty associated with its steady-state reference phasor has been evaluated; then this calibrator acted as a reference, and it has been used to characterize the phasor measurement unit implemented within a real-time simulator.

Essays on asset pricing

The first chapter provides evidence that aggregate Research and Development (R&D) investment drives a persistent component in productivity growth and that this embodies a risk priced in financial markets. In a semi-endogenous growth model, this component is identified by the R&D in excess of equilibrium levels and can be approximated by the Error Correction Term in the cointegration between R&D and Total Factor Productivity. Empirically, the component results being well defined and it satisfies all key theoretical predictions: it exhibits appropriate persistency, it forecasts productivity growth, and it is associated with a cross-sectional risk premium. CAPM is the most foundational model in financial economics, but is known to empirically underestimate expected returns of low-risk assets and overestimate those with high risk. The second chapter studies how risks omission and funding tightness jointly contribute to explaining this anomaly, with the former affecting the definition of assets’ riskiness and the latter affecting how risk is remunerated. Theoretically, the two effects are shown to counteract each other. Empirically, the spread related to binding leverage constraints is found to be significant at 2% yearly. Nonetheless, average returns of portfolios that exploit this anomaly are found to mostly reflect omitted risks, in contrast to their employment in previous literature. The third chapter studies how ‘sustainability’ of assets affect discount rates, which is intrinsically mediated by the risk profile of the assets themselves. This has implications for the assessment of the sustainability-related spread and for hedging changes in the sustainability concern. This mechanism is tested on the ESG-score dimension for US data, with inconclusive evidence regarding the existence of an ESG-related premium in the first place. Also, the risk profile of the long-short ESG portfolio is not likely to impact the sign of its average returns with respect to the sustainability-spread, for the time being.

Impacto das atividades fisicas nos indicadores de saude de sujeitos adultos : programa mexa-se

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Efeitos da atividade fisica sobre o sistema locomotor e nos habitos de vida

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

Treinamento de força e suplementação de creatina : a densidade da carga como estimulo otimizador nos ajustes morfologicos e funcionais

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

O rap, o hip-hop e o funk: a "eróptica" da arte juvenil invade a cena das escolas públicas nas metrópoles brasileiras

A irreverência e a criticidade de alguns rappers e o gingar alegre do corpo erótico proposto pelo funk sugerem um novo cenário para as metrópoles do país, em que a pluralidade da arte juvenil surge como forma de enfrentamento das marcas deixadas por fraturas sociais profundas. Os conceitos de "visão dionisíaca de mundo", "estética extrema" e "transvaloração dos valores", de Nietzsche, e o "erotismo", segundo Bataille, nortearam o método de ruptura de campo, concebido por Herrmann. Este, essencial para se repensar as noções de autoridade e tradição na sociedade contemporânea a partir das ideias veiculadas pelo rap e pelo funk. Consideramos que somente uma etnografia do olhar que apanhe a dimensão erótica e irreverente - a "eróptica", segundo Canevacci - destas manifestações poderia nelas identificar uma estética afirmativa e crítica, como diria Nietzsche, capaz de produzir uma verdadeira reversão dos valores em nossa sociedade e, no caso, no interior da própria escola.