On Time Series Analysis of Public Health and Biomedical Data

A time series is a sequence of observations made over time. Examples in public health include daily ozone concentrations, weekly admissions to an emergency department or annual expenditures on health care in the United States. Time series models are used to describe the dependence of the response at each time on predictor variables including covariates and possibly previous values in the series. Time series methods are necessary to account for the correlation among repeated responses over time. This paper gives an overview of time series ideas and methods used in public health research.

Wind plant interaction with series-compensated power systems

Wind power based generation has been rapidly growing world-wide during the recent past. In order to transmit large amounts of wind power over long distances, system planners may often add series compensation to existing transmission lines owing to several benefits such as improved steady-state power transfer limit, improved transient stability, and efficient utilization of transmission infrastructure. Application of series capacitors has posed resonant interaction concerns such as through subsynchronous resonance (SSR) with conventional turbine-generators. Wind turbine-generators may also be susceptible to such resonant interactions. However, not much information is available in literature and even engineering standards are yet to address these issues. The motivation problem for this research is based on an actual system switching event that resulted in undamped oscillations in a 345-kV series-compensated, typical ring-bus power system configuration. Based on time-domain ATP (Alternative Transients Program) modeling, simulations and analysis of system event records, the occurrence of subsynchronous interactions within the existing 345-kV series-compensated power system has been investigated. Effects of various small-signal and large-signal power system disturbances with both identical and non-identical wind turbine parameters (such as with a statistical-spread) has been evaluated. Effect of parameter variations on subsynchronous oscillations has been quantified using 3D-DFT plots and the oscillations have been identified as due to electrical self-excitation effects, rather than torsional interaction. Further, the generator no-load reactance and the rotor-side converter inner-loop controller gains have been identified as bearing maximum sensitivity to either damping or exacerbating the self-excited oscillations. A higher-order spectral analysis method based on modified Prony estimation has been successfully applied to the field records identifying dominant 9.79 Hz subsynchronous oscillations. Recommendations have been made for exploring countermeasures.

Development of record-breaking statistics for climatological time-series analysis

The number of record-breaking events expected to occur in a strictly stationary time-series depends only on the number of values in the time-series, regardless of distribution. This holds whether the events are record-breaking highs or lows and whether we count from past to present or present to past. However, these symmetries are broken in distinct ways by trends in the mean and variance. We define indices that capture this information and use them to detect weak trends from multiple time-series. Here, we use these methods to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a variability trend among globally distributed surface temperature time-series? We find a significant decreasing variability over the past century for the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). This corresponds to about a 10% change in the standard deviation of inter-annual monthly mean temperature distributions. (2) How are record-breaking high and low surface temperatures in the United States affected by time period? We investigate the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and find that the ratio of record-breaking highs to lows in 2006 increases as the time-series extend further into the past. When we consider the ratio as it evolves with respect to a fixed start year, we find it is strongly correlated with the ensemble mean. We also compare the ratios for USHCN and GHCN (minus USHCN stations). We find the ratios grow monotonically in the GHCN data set, but not in the USHCN data set. (3) Do we detect either mean or variance trends in annual precipitation within the United States? We find that the total annual and monthly precipitation in the United States (USHCN) has increased over the past century. Evidence for a trend in variance is inconclusive.

Campylobacter monitoring in German broiler flocks: an explorative time series analysis

Campylobacter, a major zoonotic pathogen, displays seasonality in poultry and in humans. In order to identify temporal patterns in the prevalence of thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in a voluntary monitoring programme in broiler flocks in Germany and in the reported human incidence, time series methods were used. The data originated between May 2004 and June 2007. By the use of seasonal decomposition, autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions, it could be shown that an annual seasonality is present. However, the peak month differs between sample submission, prevalence in broilers and human incidence. Strikingly, the peak in human campylobacterioses preceded the peak in broiler prevalence in Lower Saxony rather than occurring after it. Significant cross-correlations between monthly temperature and prevalence in broilers as well as between human incidence, monthly temperature, rainfall and wind-force were identified. The results highlight the necessity to quantify the transmission of Campylobacter from broiler to humans and to include climatic factors in order to gain further insight into the epidemiology of this zoonotic disease.

The role of upper-level dynamics and surface processes for the Pakistan flood of July 2010

In July and August 2010 floods of unprecedented impact afflicted Pakistan. The floods resulted from a series of intense multi-day precipitation events in July and early August. At the same time a series of blocking anticyclones dominated the upper-level flow over western Russia and breaking waves i.e. equatorward extrusions of stratospheric high potential vorticity (PV) air formed along the downstream flank of the blocks. Previous studies suggested that these extratropical upper-level breaking waves were crucial for instigating the precipitation events in Pakistan. Here a detailed analysis is provided of the extratropical forcing of the precipitation. Piecewise PV inversion is used to quantify the extratropical upper-level forcing associated with the wave breaking and trajectories are calculated to study the pathways and source regions of the moisture that precipitated over Pakistan. Limited-area model simulations are carried out to complement the Lagrangian analysis. The precipitation events over Pakistan resulted from a combination of favourable boundary conditions with strong extratropical and monsoonal forcing factors. Above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean led to an elevated lower-tropospheric moisture content. Surface monsoonal depressions ensured the transport of moist air from the ocean towards northeastern Pakistan. Along this pathway the air parcel humidity increased substantially (60–90% of precipitated moisture) via evapotranspiration from the land surface. Extratropical breaking waves influenced the surface wind field substantially by enhancing the wind component directed towards the mountains which reinforced the precipitation.

Proceedings of the Fourth Annual Kansas State–Nebraska Biochemical Engineering Symposium

The symposium whose papers are abstracted here was the fourth in a series held alternately at Kansas State University and the University of Nebraska–Lincoln. Requests for further information on projects conducted at Kansas State should be directed to Professor L.E. Erickson and on those at Nebraska to the editor. ContentsJohn C. Heydweiller, "Estimating Sedimentation of Organisms in a Tower-Type Activated Sludge System" Raymond C. Eliason, "Properties and Utilization of Small Particulates in Cattle Manure" Kenneth H. Hsu, "Oxygen Transfer in Tower Systems with Motionless Mixers" Raymond C. Eliason, "Hydrolysis of Sucrose by 20 Invertase Immobilized on Hollow Fibers" Robert Shipman, "Single Cell Protein from Photosynthetic 26 Bacteria" Peter J. Reilly, "Stability of Commensalistic Systems"

Proceedings of the Sixth Annual Biochemical Engineering Symposium

This symposium is the sixth of an annual series conducted so that results of biochemical engineering research can be exchanged by the researchers who actually carry it out. The first four meetings were held alternately at Kansas State University and the University of Nebraska–Lincoln for attendees from those two schools. The fifth and sixth involved participants from Kansas State University and Iowa State University; this was the first meeting away from a university campus. Contents"Mathematical Model of Oxygen Transfer in Airlift Fermentors," Chester S. Ho, Kansas State University "Effect of Column Height on Oxygen Transfer in Airlift Systems," Mark E. Orazem, Kansas State University "Mixing Studies in an Oil-Water Airlift System with Motionless 15 Mixers", J. R. Gutierrez, Kansas State University "Purification and Properties of (3-Xylosidase," Gbekeloluwa B. Oguntimein, Iowa State University "Immobilization of Invertase to Cellulose with Cyanuric Chloride," William J. Smith, Iowa State University "Purification and Properties of Dextransucrase," Yah Eric Chen and Hossein Kaboli, Iowa State University "Properties of Immobilized (3-Amylase," Clarence C. Ron, Iowa State University

Proceedings of the Seventh Annual Biochemical Engineering Symposium

This is the seventh in a series of symposia devoted to talks by students on their biochemical engineering research. The first four meetings were held alternately at Kansas State University and the University of Nebraska–Lincoln, with participants from those two schools. The next two took place at Kansas State and then in conjunction with the 8lst American Institute of Chemical Engineers National Meeting in Kansas City, with attendees from Kansas State and Iowa State Universities. This meeting, at Iowa State, was the first to include participation from the University of Missouri–Columbia. Contents"Properties of Soluble and In:anoblized Dextransucrase," Hossein Kaboli and Yah Eric Chen, Iowa State University "Growth of Lipid-Producing Organisms on Formic and Acetic Acid-Containing Waste Waters," Lin-Chang Chiang, University of Missouri–Columbia "Design of an Automated Alkaline Copper Reducing Sugar Assay," Alfred R. Fratzke and James R. Frederick, Iowa State University "Determination of Oxygen Transfer Coefficients in Hydrocarbon Fermentations Using a Material Balance Method," Sarafin N. Sanchez and J. R. Gutierrez, Kansas State University "Oxygen Transfer Characteristics in One Stage and Two Stage Air-Lift Towers," Mark E. Orazem, Kansas State University "A Comparison of Biological Digestibility Tests for Cellulose," Dou-Houng Hwang, University of Missouri–Columbia "Mechanism of Enzymatic Hydrolysis of Cellulose," L. T. Fan, Yong-Hyun Lee, and Liang-Shih Fan, Kansas State University "Purification of Xylan-Hydrolyzing Enzymes," James R. Frederick, Alfred R. Fratzke, and Mary M. Frederick, Iowa State University "Cellulase Production from Bagasse and Pith," A. Ferrer, Y. Alroy, and I. Brito, Kansas State University

Proceedings of the Eighth Annual Biochemical Engineering Symposium

Contents"Effects of Swell-Shear Treatment on the Digestibility of Cellulosics", Dou-Houng Hwang, UMC "Application of Material and Energy Balance Regularities to Biomass Production from Cellulosic Substrates", Y.H. Lee, KSU "Immobilization of Aspergillus niger beta-Xylosidase", Gbekeloluwa B. Oguntimein, ISU "The Effect of the Major Structural Parameters of Cellulose on Enzymatic Hydrolysis", David H. Beardmore, Y.H. Lee, and L.T. Fan, KSU "Purification of a High Molecular Weight Hemicellulase", Ricardo A. Fournier, ISU "Aerobic Fermentation of Banana Pulp by Aspergillus Fumigatus", Stephen Lorbert, UMC "Purification and Properties of Two Very Small Xylanases", Chih-hen Kiang, ISU "Testing Theoretical Models for Cellulose Enzymatic Hydrolysis", Lin-Chang Chiang, UMC "Utilization of Material and Energy Balances in Hydrocarbon Fermentation", Alexis Ferrer, KSU "Purification of a Series of Closely Related Xylanases", Mary M. Frederick, ISU

Proceedings of the Eleventh Annual Biochemical Engineering Symposium

This is the eleventh in a series of symposia devoted to talks by students on their biochemical engineering research. The first, third, fifth, and ninth were at Kansas State University in Manhattan; the second and fourth were at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln; the sixth was in Kansas City in conjunction with the 8lst American Institute of Chemical Engineers National Meeting; the seventh and the tenth were at Iowa State University in Ames; and the eighth was held at the University of Missouri–Columbia. ContentsPretreatment of Wheat Straw for Cellulose Hydrolysis, M. M. Gharpuray, Yong-Hyun Lee, and L. T. Fan, Kansas State University Sugar Production During Autohydrolysis of Wheat Straw, Robert A. Lewis, Colorado State University An Alkaline Copper Reagent for Use in Automated Analysis, Alfred R. Fratzke, Iowa State University Sugars Produced During Extrusion Processing of Corn, Ruth S. Korn, Colorado State University Characterization and Comparison of Renewable Energy Resources, Snehal A. Patel, Kansas State University Anaerobic Digestion of Alcohol Stillage, Laureen K. Binder, Colorado State University Estimation of Growth Yield and Maintenance Parameters, Bamidele 0. Solomon and Mehmet D. Oner, Kansas State University Immobilization of Glucoamylase Using TiCl4 and Organic Titanates, Robert E. Lesch, Iowa State University Solvent Toxicity in the Acetone-Butanol Fermentation, Jeanine M. Costa, Colorado State University

Seasonality and magnitude of floods in Switzerland under future climate change

The flood seasonality of catchments in Switzerland is likely to change under climate change because of anticipated alterations of precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt. Information on this change is crucial for flood protection policies, for example, or regional flood frequency analysis. We analysed projected changes in mean annual and maximum floods of a 22-year period for 189 catchments in Switzerland and two scenario periods in the 21st century based on an ensemble of climate scenarios. The flood seasonality was analysed with directional statistics that allow assessing both changes in the mean date a flood occurs as well as changes in the strength of the seasonality. We found that the simulated change in flood seasonality is a function of the change in flow regime type. If snow accumulation and melt is important in a catchment during the control period, then the anticipated change in flood seasonality is most pronounced. Decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios additionally affects the flood seasonality (mean date of flood occurrence) and leads to a decreasing strength of seasonality, that is a higher temporal variability in most cases. The magnitudes of mean annual floods and more clearly of maximum floods (in a 22-year period) are expected to increase in the future because of changes in flood-generating processes and scaled extreme precipitation. Southern alpine catchments show a different signal, though: the simulated mean annual floods decrease in the far future, that is at the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating Annual CO2 Flux for Lutjewad Station Using Three Different Gap-Filling Techniques

Long-term measurements of CO2 flux can be obtained using the eddy covariance technique, but these datasets are affected by gaps which hinder the estimation of robust long-term means and annual ecosystem exchanges. We compare results obtained using three gap-fill techniques: multiple regression (MR), multiple imputation (MI), and artificial neural networks (ANNs), applied to a one-year dataset of hourly CO2 flux measurements collected in Lutjewad, over a flat agriculture area near the Wadden Sea dike in the north of the Netherlands. The dataset was separated in two subsets: a learning and a validation set. The performances of gap-filling techniques were analysed by calculating statistical criteria: coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), maximum absolute error (MaxAE), and mean square bias (MSB). The gap-fill accuracy is seasonally dependent, with better results in cold seasons. The highest accuracy is obtained using ANN technique which is also less sensitive to environmental/seasonal conditions. We argue that filling gaps directly on measured CO2 fluxes is more advantageous than the common method of filling gaps on calculated net ecosystem change, because ANN is an empirical method and smaller scatter is expected when gap filling is applied directly to measurements.