The role of parametric assumptions in adaptive Bayesian estimation.

Variants of adaptive Bayesian procedures for estimating the 5% point on a psychometric function were studied by simulation. Bias and standard error were the criteria to evaluate performance. The results indicated a superiority of (a) uniform priors, (b) model likelihood functions that are odd symmetric about threshold and that have parameter values larger than their counterparts in the psychometric function, (c) stimulus placement at the prior mean, and (d) estimates defined as the posterior mean. Unbiasedness arises in only 10 trials, and 20 trials ensure constant standard errors. The standard error of the estimates equals 0.617 times the inverse of the square root of the number of trials. Other variants yielded bias and larger standard errors.

Stopping rules in Bayesian adaptive threshold estimation

Threshold estimation with sequential procedures is justifiable on the surmise that the index used in the so-called dynamic stopping rule has diagnostic value for identifying when an accurate estimate has been obtained. The performance of five types of Bayesian sequential procedure was compared here to that of an analogous fixed-length procedure. Indices for use in sequential procedures were: (1) the width of the Bayesian probability interval, (2) the posterior standard deviation, (3) the absolute change, (4) the average change, and (5) the number of sign fluctuations. A simulation study was carried out to evaluate which index renders estimates with less bias and smaller standard error at lower cost (i.e. lower average number of trials to completion), in both yes–no and two-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) tasks. We also considered the effect of the form and parameters of the psychometric function and its similarity with themodel function assumed in the procedure. Our results show that sequential procedures do not outperform fixed-length procedures in yes–no tasks. However, in 2AFC tasks, sequential procedures not based on sign fluctuations all yield minimally better estimates than fixed-length procedures, although most of the improvement occurs with short runs that render undependable estimates and the differences vanish when the procedures run for a number of trials (around 70) that ensures dependability. Thus, none of the indices considered here (some of which are widespread) has the diagnostic value that would justify its use. In addition, difficulties of implementation make sequential procedures unfit as alternatives to fixed-length procedures.

Quality of transmission estimation in WDM and elastic optical networks accounting for space-spectrum dependencies

We develop a framework for estimating the quality of transmission (QoT) of a new lightpath before it is established, as well as for calculating the expected degradation it will cause to existing lightpaths. The framework correlates the QoT metrics of established lightpaths, which are readily available from coherent optical receivers that can be extended to serve as optical performance monitors. Past similar studies used only space (routing) information and thus neglected spectrum, while they focused on oldgeneration noncoherent networks. The proposed framework accounts for correlation in both the space and spectrum domains and can be applied to both fixed-grid wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) and elastic optical networks. It is based on a graph transformation that exposes and models the interference between spectrum-neighboring channels. Our results indicate that our QoT estimates are very close to the actual performance data, that is, to having perfect knowledge of the physical layer. The proposed estimation framework is shown to provide up to 4 × 10-2 lower pre-forward error correction bit error ratio (BER) compared to theworst-case interference scenario,which overestimates the BER. The higher accuracy can be harvested when lightpaths are provisioned with low margins; our results showed up to 47% reduction in required regenerators, a substantial savings in equipment cost.

Semi-parametric geolocation estimation in NLOS environments

The position of a stationary target can be determined using triangulation in combination with time of arrival measurements at several sensors. In urban environments, none-line-of-sight (NLOS) propagation leads to biased time estimation and thus to inaccurate position estimates. Here, a semi-parametric approach is proposed to mitigate the effects of NLOS propagation. The degree of contamination by NLOS components in the observations, which result in asymmetric noise statistics, is determined and incorporated into the estimator. The proposed method is adequate for environments where the NLOS error plays a dominant role and outperforms previous approaches that assume a symmetric noise statistic.

Estimation of Sample Size and Power For Quantile Regression

Quantile regression (QR) was first introduced by Roger Koenker and Gilbert Bassett in 1978. It is robust to outliers which affect least squares estimator on a large scale in linear regression. Instead of modeling mean of the response, QR provides an alternative way to model the relationship between quantiles of the response and covariates. Therefore, QR can be widely used to solve problems in econometrics, environmental sciences and health sciences. Sample size is an important factor in the planning stage of experimental design and observational studies. In ordinary linear regression, sample size may be determined based on either precision analysis or power analysis with closed form formulas. There are also methods that calculate sample size based on precision analysis for QR like C.Jennen-Steinmetz and S.Wellek (2005). A method to estimate sample size for QR based on power analysis was proposed by Shao and Wang (2009). In this paper, a new method is proposed to calculate sample size based on power analysis under hypothesis test of covariate effects. Even though error distribution assumption is not necessary for QR analysis itself, researchers have to make assumptions of error distribution and covariate structure in the planning stage of a study to obtain a reasonable estimate of sample size. In this project, both parametric and nonparametric methods are provided to estimate error distribution. Since the method proposed can be implemented in R, user is able to choose either parametric distribution or nonparametric kernel density estimation for error distribution. User also needs to specify the covariate structure and effect size to carry out sample size and power calculation. The performance of the method proposed is further evaluated using numerical simulation. The results suggest that the sample sizes obtained from our method provide empirical powers that are closed to the nominal power level, for example, 80%.

The LiDAR Compass: Extremely Lightweight Heading Estimation with Axis Maps

This paper introduces the LiDAR compass, a bounded and extremely lightweight heading estimation technique that combines a two-dimensional laser scanner and axis maps, which represent the orientations of flat surfaces in the environment. Although suitable for a variety of indoor and outdoor environments, the LiDAR compass is especially useful for embedded and real-time applications requiring low computational overhead. For example, when combined with a sensor that can measure translation (e.g., wheel encoders) the LiDAR compass can be used to yield accurate, lightweight, and very easily implementable localization that requires no prior mapping phase. The utility of using the LiDAR compass as part of a localization algorithm was tested on a widely-available open-source data set, an indoor environment, and a larger-scale outdoor environment. In all cases, it was shown that the growth in heading error was bounded, which significantly reduced the position error to less than 1% of the distance travelled.

Axis Mapping: The Estimation of Surface Orientations and its Applications in Vehicle Localization and Structural Geology

The map representation of an environment should be selected based on its intended application. For example, a geometrically accurate map describing the Euclidean space of an environment is not necessarily the best choice if only a small subset its features are required. One possible subset is the orientations of the flat surfaces in the environment, represented by a special parameterization of normal vectors called axes. Devoid of positional information, the entries of an axis map form a non-injective relationship with the flat surfaces in the environment, which results in physically distinct flat surfaces being represented by a single axis. This drastically reduces the complexity of the map, but retains important information about the environment that can be used in meaningful applications in both two and three dimensions. This thesis presents axis mapping, which is an algorithm that accurately and automatically estimates an axis map of an environment based on sensor measurements collected by a mobile platform. Furthermore, two major applications of axis maps are developed and implemented. First, the LiDAR compass is a heading estimation algorithm that compares measurements of axes with an axis map of the environment. Pairing the LiDAR compass with simple translation measurements forms the basis for an accurate two-dimensional localization algorithm. It is shown that this algorithm eliminates the growth of heading error in both indoor and outdoor environments, resulting in accurate localization over long distances. Second, in the context of geotechnical engineering, a three-dimensional axis map is called a stereonet, which is used as a tool to examine the strength and stability of a rock face. Axis mapping provides a novel approach to create accurate stereonets safely, rapidly, and inexpensively compared to established methods. The non-injective property of axis maps is leveraged to probabilistically describe the relationships between non-sequential measurements of the rock face. The automatic estimation of stereonets was tested in three separate outdoor environments. It is shown that axis mapping can accurately estimate stereonets while improving safety, requiring significantly less time and effort, and lowering costs compared to traditional and current state-of-the-art approaches.

Improved Real-time State-of-Charge Estimation of LiFePO4 Battery Based on a Novel Thermoelectric Model

Li-ion batteries have been widely used in electric vehicles, and battery internal state estimation plays an important role in the battery management system. However, it is technically challenging, in particular, for the estimation of the battery internal temperature and state-ofcharge (SOC), which are two key state variables affecting the battery performance. In this paper, a novel method is proposed for realtime simultaneous estimation of these two internal states, thus leading to a significantly improved battery model for realtime SOC estimation. To achieve this, a simplified battery thermoelectric model is firstly built, which couples a thermal submodel and an electrical submodel. The interactions between the battery thermal and electrical behaviours are captured, thus offering a comprehensive description of the battery thermal and electrical behaviour. To achieve more accurate internal state estimations, the model is trained by the simulation error minimization method, and model parameters are optimized by a hybrid optimization method combining a meta-heuristic algorithm and the least square approach. Further, timevarying model parameters under different heat dissipation conditions are considered, and a joint extended Kalman filter is used to simultaneously estimate both the battery internal states and time-varying model parameters in realtime. Experimental results based on the testing data of LiFePO4 batteries confirm the efficacy of the proposed method.

A probabilistic approach to the estimation of regional photovoltaic power generation using meteorological data

In Germany the upscaling algorithm is currently the standard approach for evaluating the PV power produced in a region. This method involves spatially interpolating the normalized power of a set of reference PV plants to estimate the power production by another set of unknown plants. As little information on the performances of this method could be found in the literature, the first goal of this thesis is to conduct an analysis of the uncertainty associated to this method. It was found that this method can lead to large errors when the set of reference plants has different characteristics or weather conditions than the set of unknown plants and when the set of reference plants is small. Based on these preliminary findings, an alternative method is proposed for calculating the aggregate power production of a set of PV plants. A probabilistic approach has been chosen by which a power production is calculated at each PV plant from corresponding weather data. The probabilistic approach consists of evaluating the power for each frequently occurring value of the parameters and estimating the most probable value by averaging these power values weighted by their frequency of occurrence. Most frequent parameter sets (e.g. module azimuth and tilt angle) and their frequency of occurrence have been assessed on the basis of a statistical analysis of parameters of approx. 35 000 PV plants. It has been found that the plant parameters are statistically dependent on the size and location of the PV plants. Accordingly, separate statistical values have been assessed for 14 classes of nominal capacity and 95 regions in Germany (two-digit zip-code areas). The performances of the upscaling and probabilistic approaches have been compared on the basis of 15 min power measurements from 715 PV plants provided by the German distribution system operator LEW Verteilnetz. It was found that the error of the probabilistic method is smaller than that of the upscaling method when the number of reference plants is sufficiently large (>100 reference plants in the case study considered in this chapter). When the number of reference plants is limited (<50 reference plants for the considered case study), it was found that the proposed approach provides a noticeable gain in accuracy with respect to the upscaling method.

Feature-based camera pose estimation

The estimating of the relative orientation and position of a camera is one of the integral topics in the field of computer vision. The accuracy of a certain Finnish technology company’s traffic sign inventory and localization process can be improved by utilizing the aforementioned concept. The company’s localization process uses video data produced by a vehicle installed camera. The accuracy of estimated traffic sign locations depends on the relative orientation between the camera and the vehicle. This thesis proposes a computer vision based software solution which can estimate a camera’s orientation relative to the movement direction of the vehicle by utilizing video data. The task was solved by using feature-based methods and open source software. When using simulated data sets, the camera orientation estimates had an absolute error of 0.31 degrees on average. The software solution can be integrated to be a part of the traffic sign localization pipeline of the company in question.

Thermal Tracking and Estimation for Microprocessors

Due to increasing integration density and operating frequency of today's high performance processors, the temperature of a typical chip can easily exceed 100 degrees Celsius. However, the runtime thermal state of a chip is very hard to predict and manage due to the random nature in computing workloads, as well as the process, voltage and ambient temperature variability (together called PVT variability). The uneven nature (both in time and space) of the heat dissipation of the chip could lead to severe reliability issues and error-prone chip behavior (e.g. timing errors). Many dynamic power/thermal management techniques have been proposed to address this issue such as dynamic voltage and frequency scaling (DVFS), clock gating and etc. However, most of such techniques require accurate knowledge of the runtime thermal state of the chip to make efficient and effective control decisions. In this work we address the problem of tracking and managing the temperature of microprocessors which include the following sub-problems: (1) how to design an efficient sensor-based thermal tracking system on a given design that could provide accurate real-time temperature feedback; (2) what statistical techniques could be used to estimate the full-chip thermal profile based on very limited (and possibly noise-corrupted) sensor observations; (3) how do we adapt to changes in the underlying system's behavior, since such changes could impact the accuracy of our thermal estimation. The thermal tracking methodology proposed in this work is enabled by on-chip sensors which are already implemented in many modern processors. We first investigate the underlying relationship between heat distribution and power consumption, then we introduce an accurate thermal model for the chip system. Based on this model, we characterize the temperature correlation that exists among different chip modules and explore statistical approaches (such as those based on Kalman filter) that could utilize such correlation to estimate the accurate chip-level thermal profiles in real time. Such estimation is performed based on limited sensor information because sensors are usually resource constrained and noise-corrupted. We also took a further step to extend the standard Kalman filter approach to account for (1) nonlinear effects such as leakage-temperature interdependency and (2) varying statistical characteristics in the underlying system model. The proposed thermal tracking infrastructure and estimation algorithms could consistently generate accurate thermal estimates even when the system is switching among workloads that have very distinct characteristics. Through experiments, our approaches have demonstrated promising results with much higher accuracy compared to existing approaches. Such results can be used to ensure thermal reliability and improve the effectiveness of dynamic thermal management techniques.

Age estimation in common sole Solea solea larvae: validation of daily increments and evaluation of a pattern recognition technique

Close similarities have been found between the otoliths of sea-caught and laboratory-reared larvae of the common sole Solea solea (L.), given appropriate temperatures and nourishment of the latter. But from hatching to mouth formation. and during metamorphosis, sole otoliths have proven difficult to read because the increments may be less regular and low contrast. In this study, the growth increments in otoliths of larvae reared at 12 degrees C were counted by light microscopy to test the hypothesis of daily deposition, with some results verified using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and by image analysis in order to compare the reliability of the 2 methods in age estimation. Age was first estimated (in days posthatch) from light micrographs of whole mounted otoliths. Counts were initiated from the increment formed at the time of month opening (Day 4). The average incremental deposition rate was consistent with the daily hypothesis. However, the light-micrograph readings tended to underestimate the mean ages of the larvae. Errors were probably associated with the low-contrast increments: those deposited after the mouth formation during the transition to first feeding, and those deposited from the onset of eye migration (about 20 d posthatch) during metamorphosis. SEM failed to resolve these low-contrast areas accurately because of poor etching. A method using image analysis was applied to a subsample of micrograph-counted otoliths. The image analysis was supported by an algorithm of pattern recognition (Growth Demodulation Algorithm, GDA). On each otolith, the GDA method integrated the growth pattern of these larval otoliths to averaged data from different radial profiles, in order to demodulate the exponential trend of the signal before spectral analysis (Fast Fourier Transformation, FFT). This second method both allowed more precise designation of increments, particularly for low-contrast areas, and more accurate readings but increased error in mean age estimation. The variability is probably due to a still rough perception of otolith increments by the GDA method, counting being achieved through a theoretical exponential pattern and mean estimates being given by FFT. Although this error variability was greater than expected, the method provides for improvement in both speed and accuracy in otolith readings.

Estimation of water use and crop coefficients for an intensive olive orchard using sap flow measurements and modeled data

Olive tree sap flow measurements were collected in an intensive orchard near Évora, Portugal, during the irrigation seasons of 2013 and 2014, to calculate daily tree transpiration rates (T_SF). Meteorological variables were also collected to calculate reference evapotranspiration (ETo). Both data were used to assess values of basal crop coefficient (Kcb) for the period of the sap flow observations. The soil water balance model SIMDualKc was calibrated with soil, biophysical ground data and sap flow measurements collected in 2013. Validated in 2014 with collected sap flow observations, the model was used to provide estimates of dual e single crop coefficients for 2014 crop growing season. Good agreement between model simulated daily transpiration rates and those obtained with sapflow measurements was observed for 2014 (R2=0.76, RMSE=0.20 mm d-1), the year of validation, with an estimation average absolute error (AAE) of 0.20 mm d-1. Olive modeled daily actual evapotranspiration resulted in atual ETc values of 0.87, 2.05 and 0.77 mm d-1 for 2014 initial, mid- and end-season, respectively. Actual crop coefficient (Kc act) values of 0.51, 0.43 and 0.67 were also obtained for the same periods, respectively. Higher Kc values during spring (initial stage) and autumn (end-stage) were published in FAO56, varying between 0.65 for Kc ini and 0.70 for Kc end. The lower Kc mid value of 0.43 obtained for the summer (mid-season) is also inconsistent with the FAO56 expected Kc mid value of 0.70 for the period. The modeled Kc results are more consistent with the ones published by Allen & Pereira [1] for olive orchards with effective ground cover of 0.25 to 0.5, which vary between 0.40 and 0.80 for Kc ini, 0.40–0.60 for Kc mid with no active ground cover, and 0.35–0.75 for Kc end, depending on ground cover. The SIMDualKc simulation model proved to be appropriate for obtaining evapotranspiration and crop coefficient values for our intensive olive orchard in southern Portugal.

Above ground biomass estimation in Mediterranean multiple use systems with high spatial resolution satellite images

Forest biomass has been having an increasing importance in the world economy and in the evaluation of the forests development and monitoring. It was identified as a global strategic reserve, due to its applications in bioenergy, bioproduct development and issues related to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The estimation of above ground biomass is frequently done with allometric functions per species with plot inventory data. An adequate sampling design and intensity for an error threshold is required. The estimation per unit area is done using an extrapolation method. This procedure is labour demanding and costly. The mail goal of this study is the development of allometric functions for the estimation of above ground biomass with ground cover as independent variable, for forest areas of holm aok (Quercus rotundifolia), cork oak (Quercus suber) and umbrella pine (Pinus pinea) in multiple use systems. Ground cover per species was derived from crown horizontal projection obtained by processing high resolution satellite images, orthorectified, geometrically and atmospheric corrected, with multi-resolution segmentation method and object oriented classification. Forest inventory data were used to estimate plot above ground biomass with published allometric functions at tree level. The developed functions were fitted for monospecies stands and for multispecies stands of Quercus rotundifolia and Quercus suber, and Quercus suber and Pinus pinea. The stand composition was considered adding dummy variables to distinguish monospecies from multispecies stands. The models showed a good performance. Noteworthy is that the dummy variables, reflecting the differences between species, originated improvements in the models. Significant differences were found for above ground biomass estimation with the functions with and without the dummy variables. An error threshold of 10% corresponds to stand areas of about 40 ha. This method enables the overall area evaluation, not requiring extrapolation procedures, for the three species, which occur frequently in multispecies stands.