The Monetary policy rules in EU-15: before and after the euro

The objective of this paper is to identify empirically the logic behind short-term interest rates setting

Nivells de radó en recintes tancats de la zona volcànica de la Garrotxa i la falla d'Amer

La importància radiològica i geofísica del gas radó, un gas radioactiu que neix de la desintegració del radi present a l’escorça terrestre, ha motivat una extensa campanya de mesures d’aquest gas a l’interior de recintes tancats de la zona volcànica de la Garrotxa i de la falla d’Amer, una zona que per les seves característiques geològiques, com ara la presència de falles que poden ser actives, podria afavorir la presència de radó. En aquest treball s’inclou una descripció detallada de la metodologia utilitzada per la mesura d’aquest gas, posant especial èmfasi en el control de qualitat dels sistemes de mesura emprats. Els resultats obtinguts al llarg de més d’un any d’investigacions, on s’han mesurat llocs de treballs i llars, demostren que les concentracions en general són baixes, però que les seves variacions estacionals depenen de la presència de materials volcànics en el subsòl i d’una xarxa de conductes subterranis. Aquest resultat ha motivat uns estudis més detallats dels nivells de radó i altres radionúclids naturals en el sòl al voltant de la falla d’Amer, en les aigües subterrànies i en l’aire dels bufadors de la zona volcànica de la Garrotxa.

The Forward Premium Puzzle and The Euro

This paper evaluates the forward premium puzzle using the Euro exchange rate. Unlike previous studies, our analysis utilizes time-varying parameter methods and is based on two approaches for evaluation of the puzzle; the traditional approach analyzing the sensitivity of interest rate differentials to the forward premium, and the other looking into deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIRP) condition. Then we provide evidence that the forward premium puzzle indeed became more prominent around the time of the recent crisis periods such as the Lehman Shock and the Euro crisis. This is also shown to be consistent with a deterioration in the CIRP.

On the real effects of financial pressure: Evidence from euro area firm-level employment during the recent financial crisis.

Using a large panel of unquoted euro-area firms over the period 2003-11, this paper examines the impact of financial pressure on firms’ employment. The analysis finds evidence that financial pressure negatively affects firms’ employment decisions. This effect is stronger during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, especially for firms in the periphery area compared to their counterparts in the core European economies. We also find that impact of financial pressure on employment is more potent for firms classified as financially constrained and operating in periphery economies during the financial crisis.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model

This paper employs an unobserved component model that incorporates a set of economic fundamentals to obtain the Euro-Dollar permanent equilibrium exchange rates (PEER) for the period 1975Q1 to 2008Q4. The results show that for most of the sample period, the Euro-Dollar exchange rate closely followed the values implied by the PEER. The only significant deviations from the PEER occurred in the years immediately before and after the introduction of the single European currency. The forecasting exercise shows that incorporating economic fundamentals provides a better long-run exchange rate forecasting performance than a random walk process.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

American cutaneous leishmaniasis in Pernambuco, Brazil: eco-epidemiological aspects in "Zona da Mata" region

American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) has been increasing in Pernambuco, thus becoming an important problem for Public Health. The incindence is predominant in the region called "Zona da Mata", in the east of this state. This region corresponds geographically to the primitive area of the Atlantic forest. In order to characterize the eco-epidemiology expression of ACL in this region, two localities situated in the municipalities of Amaraji e Cortes have been selected by the criterion of higher incindence of human cases. Five stocks of patients were characterized and identified on the basis of enzyme profiles as a new variant of Leishmania (V.) braziliensis. A survey of wild and domestic animals was carried out by means of a parasitological and serological diagnosis. Through the analysis of the spleen and liver imprints, were detected amastigotes compatible with Leishmania in five Nectomys s. squamipes, five Bolomys l. pixuna, two Rattus r. alexandrinus and one Rattus r. frugivorus. For two years we carried out monthly sandflies captures using CDC light traps as well as manual captures. Lutzomyia whitmani was predominant, which accounted for 97.4 por cento of the total. These data indicate a strong evidence on the vector and the potential reservoirs of L. braziliensis in this region.

Estudi de la flora i la fauna d'una zona agroforestal del sud d'Osona

L’objectiu general de l’estudi és tenir un coneixement de les espècies de flora i fauna presents en una àrea agroforestal situada al sud de la comarca d’Osona. A nivell específic, s’ha laborat un llistat de les espècies de flora i fauna presents tan exhaustiu com ha estat possible, s’han caracteritzat les comunitats vegetals presents, s’ha avaluat la població d’algunes espècies de vertebrats presents, s’han identificat els punts d’interès per a la conservació de certes espècies i, finalment, s’han establert prioritats de conservació dins l’àrea d’estudi.

Diagnosi ambiental de les fonts naturals de la zona nord-occidental del Vallès Oriental: el fenomen "garrafaire"

Aquest treball analitza un total de sis fonts naturals situades a la zona nord-occidental del Vallès Oriental amb l’objectiu de determinar-ne la seva freqüentació i en especial centrar-se en el fenomen “garrafaire”. S’ha elaborat un mètode de recompte d’usuaris, s’ha analitzat l’aigua a nivell físico-químic i microbiològic i s’ha portat a terme un sistema de caracterització ambiental d’aquestes fonts. La freqüentació és elevada a quatre de les sis fonts estudiades, de les que només tres són utilitzades habitualment per “garrafaires”. El volum d’ús d’aquestes fonts contrasta amb el control analític de la qualitat de l’aigua, per part de l’administració, que és inexistent en quatre d’elles i insuficient a les restants. La confiança per part dels usuaris cap a la qualitat de l’aigua també difereix dels resultats de les analítiques realitzades, en que l’aigua ha estat qualificada com a no apta per al consum humà en totes elles, exceptuant una única analítica d’una font que ha resultat apta per al consum humà. En conseqüència, caldria un pla de control i seguiment de la qualitat de l’aigua almenys en 4 de les fonts analitzades.

Ascertaining late-life depressive symptoms in Europe: an evaluation of the survey version of the EURO-D scale in 10 nations. The SHARE project.

The reported prevalence of late-life depressive symptoms varies widely between studies, a finding that might be attributed to cultural as well as methodological factors. The EURO-D scale was developed to allow valid comparison of prevalence and risk associations between European countries. This study used Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and Rasch models to assess whether the goal of measurement invariance had been achieved; using EURO-D scale data collected in 10 European countries as part of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) (n = 22,777). The results suggested a two-factor solution (Affective Suffering and Motivation) after Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in 9 of the 10 countries. With CFA, in all countries, the two-factor solution had better overall goodness-of-fit than the one-factor solution. However, only the Affective Suffering subscale was equivalent across countries, while the Motivation subscale was not. The Rasch model indicated that the EURO-D was a hierarchical scale. While the calibration pattern was similar across countries, between countries agreement in item calibrations was stronger for the items loading on the affective suffering than the motivation factor. In conclusion, there is evidence to support the EURO-D as either a uni-dimensional or bi-dimensional scale measure of depressive symptoms in late-life across European countries. The Affective Suffering sub-component had more robust cross-cultural validity than the Motivation sub-component.

Escola i diversitat lingüística i cultural: desafiaments i oportunitats. El paper d'un Servei Educatiu de Zona com a agent d'innovació i canvi

Davant dels nous reptes educatius que planteja l’augment de la diversitat lingüística i cultural al conjunt del Sistema Educatiu Català, el present treball descriu els resultats i experiències obtinguts en les tres primeres fases d’un projecte de recerca centrat en la identificació d’indicadors vàlids que permetin dissenyar i implementar estratègies educatives inclusives adequades per atendre la diversitat lingüística i cultural present als nostres centres. La part central de la memòria descriu les primeres dades d’un estudi quantitatiu , realitzat en diferents moments del període d’escolarització (Pàrvuls 5 anys , segon i sisè de Primària i segon d’ESO) a quatre centres públics de Vilafranca del Penedès a finals del curs 2009-2010 , sobre el coneixement de català i de castellà i les possibles influències que en aquest hi juguen els factors de diversitat lingüística i cultural. El segon bloc d’aquest projecte presenta un seguit d’experiències i propostes d’assessorament centrades en el procés de sensibilització inicial sobre les implicacions educatives a nivell d’aula i de centre de la diversitat lingüística i cultural. També es presenta, com a annex final, un recull dels principals materials emprats en aquest procés d’intervenció en centre. A la part final del treball, s’hi desenvolupa una reflexió sobre les condicions que poden afavorir la implementació d’aquestes estratègies a nivell de centre i de sistema educatiu; i sobre el paper que , en aquests processos de canvi i millora educativa , hi podrien jugar els Serveis Educatius de Zona del Departament d’Ensenyament de la Generalitat de Catalunya.