929 resultados para Wind forecast
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It is common knowledge of the world’s dependency on fossil fuel for energy, its unsustainability on the long run and the changing trend towards renewable energy as an alternative energy source. This aims to cut down greenhouse gas emission and its impact on the rate of ecological and climatic change. Quite remarkably, wind energy has been one of many focus areas of renewable energy sources and has attracted lots of investment and technological advancement. The objective of this research is to explore wind energy and its application in household heating. This research aims at applying experimental approach in real time to study and verify a virtually simulated wind powered hydraulic house heating system. The hardware components comprise of an integrated hydraulic pump, flow control valve, hydraulic fluid and other hydraulic components. The system design and control applies hardware in-the-loop (HIL) simulation setup. Output signal from the semi-empirical turbine modelling controls the integrated motor to generate flow. Throttling the volume flow creates pressure drop across the valve and subsequently thermal power in the system to be outputted using a heat exchanger. Maximum thermal power is achieved by regulating valve orifice to achieve optimum system parameter. Savonius rotor is preferred for its low inertia, high starting torque and ease of design and maintenance characteristics, but lags in power efficiency. A prototype turbine design is used; with power output in range of practical Savonius turbine. The physical mechanism of the prototype turbine’s augmentation design is not known and will not be a focus in this study.
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Wind power is a rapidly developing, low-emission form of energy production. In Fin-land, the official objective is to increase wind power capacity from the current 1 005 MW up to 3 500–4 000 MW by 2025. By the end of April 2015, the total capacity of all wind power project being planned in Finland had surpassed 11 000 MW. As the amount of projects in Finland is record high, an increasing amount of infrastructure is also being planned and constructed. Traditionally, these planning operations are conducted using manual and labor-intensive work methods that are prone to subjectivity. This study introduces a GIS-based methodology for determining optimal paths to sup-port the planning of onshore wind park infrastructure alignment in Nordanå-Lövböle wind park located on the island of Kemiönsaari in Southwest Finland. The presented methodology utilizes a least-cost path (LCP) algorithm for searching of optimal paths within a high resolution real-world terrain dataset derived from airborne lidar scannings. In addition, planning data is used to provide a realistic planning framework for the anal-ysis. In order to produce realistic results, the physiographic and planning datasets are standardized and weighted according to qualitative suitability assessments by utilizing methods and practices offered by multi-criteria evaluation (MCE). The results are pre-sented as scenarios to correspond various different planning objectives. Finally, the methodology is documented by using tools of Business Process Management (BPM). The results show that the presented methodology can be effectively used to search and identify extensive, 20 to 35 kilometers long networks of paths that correspond to certain optimization objectives in the study area. The utilization of high-resolution terrain data produces a more objective and more detailed path alignment plan. This study demon-strates that the presented methodology can be practically applied to support a wind power infrastructure alignment planning process. The six-phase structure of the method-ology allows straightforward incorporation of different optimization objectives. The methodology responds well to combining quantitative and qualitative data. Additional-ly, the careful documentation presents an example of how the methodology can be eval-uated and developed as a business process. This thesis also shows that more emphasis on the research of algorithm-based, more objective methods for the planning of infrastruc-ture alignment is desirable, as technological development has only recently started to realize the potential of these computational methods.
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This note develops general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit the recent asymptotic distributional results in Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2002a), are both easy to implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. On properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (2003), the adjustments result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return-volatility predictability.
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Rapport de recherche
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Diverses méthodes ont été utilisées pour étudier les étoiles Wolf-Rayet (WR) dans le but de comprendre les phénomènes physiques variés qui prennent place dans leur vent dense. Pour étudier la variabilité qui n'est pas strictement périodique et ayant des caractéristiques différentes d'une époque à l'autre, il faut observer pendant des périodes de temps suffisamment longues en adopter un échantillonnage temporel élevé pour être en mesure d'identifier les phénomènes physiques sous-jacents. À l'été 2013, des astronomes professionnels et amateurs du monde entier ont contribué à une campagne d'observation de 4 mois, principalement en spectroscopie, mais aussi en photométrie, polarimétrie et en interférométrie, pour observer les 3 premières étoiles Wolf-Rayet découvertes: WR 134 (WN6b), WR 135 (WC8) et WR 137 (WC7pd + O9). Chacune de ces étoiles est intéressante à sa manière, chacune présentant une variété différente de structures dans son vent. Les données spectroscopiques de cette campagne ont été réduites et analysées pour l'étoile présumée simple WR 134 pour mieux comprendre le comportement de sa variabilité périodique à long terme dans le cadre d'une étude des régions d'interactions en corotation (CIRs) qui se retrouvent dans son vent. Les résultats de cette étude sont présentés dans ce mémoire.
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The present study on the vertical structure of horizontal wind variability in the surface boundary layer over Sriharikota. Based on clock wind speed and direction measuring meteorological tower facility from seven levels in the 100 m layer. The study on wind variability and elliptical approximation of wind hodographs investigated for this tropical coastal station established that Sriharikota is of meso-scale weather entity. Wind variability ratio increases from lower levels to upper levels. In South West monsoon months the station is of high ratio values and it gets affected with meso-scale weather features like thunderstorms. Average total shears are observed greater values than scalar shears. Scalar shears are high in the lowest shear levels compared to upper levels. Semi diurnal types of oscillation in average total shears are found in south west monsoon months. During cyclonic storm passage it is observed that there can be significant difference in mean wind speed from 10 m to 100 m level, but it is not so for peak wind speeds. The variations in wind variability ratio in different months is clearly depicted its strong link to define meso-scale or synoptic –scale forcing domination for this station. Meso-scale forcing is characterized by diurnal wind variability and synoptic- scale forcing by interdiurnal wind variability.
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Wind energy has emerged as a major sustainable source of energy.The efficiency of wind power generation by wind mills has improved a lot during the last three decades.There is still further scope for maximising the conversion of wind energy into mechanical energy.In this context,the wind turbine rotor dynamics has great significance.The present work aims at a comprehensive study of the Horizontal Axis Wind Turbine (HAWT) aerodynamics by numerically solving the fluid dynamic equations with the help of a finite-volume Navier-Stokes CFD solver.As a more general goal,the study aims at providing the capabilities of modern numerical techniques for the complex fluid dynamic problems of HAWT.The main purpose is hence to maximize the physics of power extraction by wind turbines.This research demonstrates the potential of an incompressible Navier-Stokes CFD method for the aerodynamic power performance analysis of horizontal axis wind turbine.The National Renewable Energy Laboratory USA-NREL (Technical Report NREL/Cp-500-28589) had carried out an experimental work aimed at the real time performance prediction of horizontal axis wind turbine.In addition to a comparison between the results reported by NREL made and CFD simulations,comparisons are made for the local flow angle at several stations ahead of the wind turbine blades.The comparison has shown that fairly good predictions can be made for pressure distribution and torque.Subsequently, the wind-field effects on the blade aerodynamics,as well as the blade/tower interaction,were investigated.The selected case corresponded to a 12.5 m/s up-wind HAWT at zero degree of yaw angle and a rotational speed of 25 rpm.The results obtained suggest that the present can cope well with the flows encountered around wind turbines.The areodynamic performance of the turbine and the flow details near and off the turbine blades and tower can be analysed using theses results.The aerodynamic performance of airfoils differs from one another.The performance mainly depends on co-efficient of performnace,co-efficient of lift,co-efficient of drag, velocity of fluid and angle of attack.This study shows that the velocity is not constant for all angles of attack of different airfoils.The performance parameters are calculated analytically and are compared with the standardized performance tests.For different angles of ,the velocity stall is determined for the better performance of a system with respect to velocity.The research addresses the effect of surface roughness factor on the blade surface at various sections.The numerical results were found to be in agreement with the experimental data.A relative advantage of the theoretical aerofoil design method is that it allows many different concepts to be explored economically.Such efforts are generally impractical in wind tunnels because of time and money constraints.Thus, the need for a theoretical aerofoil design method is threefold:first for the design of aerofoil that fall outside the range of applicability of existing calalogs:second,for the design of aerofoil that more exactly match the requirements of the intended application:and third,for the economic exploration of many aerofoil concepts.From the results obtained for the different aerofoils,the velocity is not constant for all angles of attack.The results obtained for the aerofoil mainly depend on angle of attack and velocity.The vortex generator technique was meticulously studies with the formulation of the specification for the right angle shaped vortex generators-VG.The results were validated in accordance with the primary analysis phase.The results were found to be in good agreement with the power curve.The introduction of correct size VGs at appropriate locations over the blades of the selected HAWT was found to increase the power generation by about 4%
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The Doctoral thesis focuses on the factors that influence the weather and climate over Peninsular Indias. The first chapter provides a general introduction about the climatic features over peninsular India, various factors dealt in subsequent chapters, such as solar forcing on climate, SST variability in the northern Indian Ocean and its influence on Indian monsoon, moisture content of the atmosphere and its importance in the climate system, empirical formulation of regression forecast of climate and some aspects of regional climate modeling. Chapter 2 deals with the variability in the vertically integrated moisture (VIM) over Peninsular India on various time scales. The third Chapter discusses the influence of solar activity in the low frequency variability in the rainfall of Peninsular India. The study also investigates the influence of solar activity on the horizontal and vertical components of wind and the difference in the forcing before and after the so-called regime shift in the climate system before and after mid-1970s.In Chapter 4 on Peninsular Indian Rainfall and its association with meteorological and oceanic parameters over adjoining oceanic region, a linear regression model was developed and tested for the seasonal rainfall prediction of Peninsular India.
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The objective of this study is to understand the reasons for the enhancement in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Arabian Sea observed during June, July and August. During these months, high values of AOD are found over the sea beyond 10◦ N and adjacent regions. The Arabian Sea is bounded by the lands of Asia and Africa on its three sides. So the region is influenced by transported aerosols from the surroundings as well as aerosols of local origin (marine aerosols). During the summer monsoon season in India, strong surface winds with velocities around 15 m s−1 are experienced over most parts of the Arabian Sea. These winds are capable of increasing sea spray activity, thereby enhancing the production of marine aerosols. The strong winds increase the contribution of marine aerosols over the region to about 60% of the total aerosol content. The main components of marine aerosols include sea salt and sulphate particles. The remaining part of the aerosol particles comes from the western and northern land masses around the sea, of which the main component is transported dust particles. This transport is observed at higher altitudes starting from 600 m. At low levels, the transport occurs mainly from the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea itself, indicating the predominance of marine aerosols at these levels. The major portion of the total aerosol loading was contributed by coarse-mode particles during the period of study. But in the winter season, the concentration of coarse-mode aerosols is found to be less. From the analysis, it is concluded that the increase in marine aerosols and dust particles transported from nearby deserts results in an increase in aerosol content over the Arabian Sea during June, July and August.
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Short term load forecasting is one of the key inputs to optimize the management of power system. Almost 60-65% of revenue expenditure of a distribution company is against power purchase. Cost of power depends on source of power. Hence any optimization strategy involves optimization in scheduling power from various sources. As the scheduling involves many technical and commercial considerations and constraints, the efficiency in scheduling depends on the accuracy of load forecast. Load forecasting is a topic much visited in research world and a number of papers using different techniques are already presented. The accuracy of forecast for the purpose of merit order dispatch decisions depends on the extent of the permissible variation in generation limits. For a system with low load factor, the peak and the off peak trough are prominent and the forecast should be able to identify these points to more accuracy rather than minimizing the error in the energy content. In this paper an attempt is made to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with supervised learning based approach to make short term load forecasting for a power system with comparatively low load factor. Such power systems are usual in tropical areas with concentrated rainy season for a considerable period of the year
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Die Maßnahmen zur Förderung der Windenergie in Deutschland haben wichtige Anstöße zur technologischen Weiterentwicklung geliefert und die Grundlagen für den enormen Anlagenzubau geschaffen. Die installierte Windleistung hat heute eine beachtliche Größenordnung erreicht und ein weiteres Wachstum in ähnlichen Dimensionen ist auch für die nächsten Jahre zu erwarten. Die aus Wind erzeugte elektrische Leistung deckt bereits heute in einigen Netzbereichen die Netzlast zu Schwachlastzeiten. Dies zeigt, dass die Windenergie ein nicht mehr zu vernachlässigender Faktor in der elektrischen Energieversorgung geworden ist. Im Rahmen der Kraftwerkseinsatzplanung sind Betrag und Verlauf der Windleistung des folgenden Tages mittlerweile zu wichtigen und zugleich schwierig zu bestimmenden Variablen geworden. Starke Schwankungen und falsche Prognosen der Windstromeinspeisung verursachen zusätzlichen Bedarf an Regel- und Ausgleichsleistung durch die Systemführung. Das im Rahmen dieser Arbeit entwickelte Prognosemodell liefert die zu erwartenden Windleistungen an 16 repräsentativen Windparks bzw. Gruppen von Windparks für bis zu 48 Stunden im Voraus. Aufgrund von prognostizierten Wetterdaten des deutschen Wetterdienstes (DWD) werden die Leistungen der einzelnen Windparks mit Hilfe von künstlichen neuronalen Netzen (KNN) berechnet. Diese Methode hat gegenüber physikalischen Verfahren den Vorteil, dass der komplexe Zusammenhang zwischen Wettergeschehen und Windparkleistung nicht aufwendig analysiert und detailliert mathematisch beschrieben werden muss, sondern anhand von Daten aus der Vergangenheit von den KNN gelernt wird. Das Prognosemodell besteht aus zwei Modulen. Mit dem ersten wird, basierend auf den meteorologischen Vorhersagen des DWD, eine Prognose für den Folgetag erstellt. Das zweite Modul bezieht die online gemessenen Leistungsdaten der repräsentativen Windparks mit ein, um die ursprüngliche Folgetagsprognose zu verbessern und eine sehr genaue Kurzzeitprognose für die nächsten drei bis sechs Stunden zu berechnen. Mit den Ergebnissen der Prognosemodule für die repräsentativen Standorte wird dann über ein Transformationsmodell, dem so genannten Online-Modell, die Gesamteinspeisung in einem größeren Gebiet berechnet. Das Prognoseverfahren hat seine besonderen Vorzüge in der Genauigkeit, den geringen Rechenzeiten und den niedrigen Betriebskosten, da durch die Verwendung des bereits implementierten Online-Modells nur eine geringe Anzahl von Vorhersage- und Messstandorten benötigt wird. Das hier vorgestellte Prognosemodell wurde ursprünglich für die E.ON-Netz GmbH entwickelt und optimiert und ist dort seit Juli 2001 im Einsatz. Es lässt sich jedoch auch leicht an andere Gebiete anpassen. Benötigt werden dazu nur die Messdaten der Leistung ausgewählter repräsentativer Windparks sowie die dazu gehörenden Wettervorhersagen, um die KNN entsprechend zu trainieren.
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The principal objective of this paper is to develop a methodology for the formulation of a master plan for renewable energy based electricity generation in The Gambia, Africa. Such a master plan aims to develop and promote renewable sources of energy as an alternative to conventional forms of energy for generating electricity in the country. A tailor-made methodology for the preparation of a 20-year renewable energy master plan focussed on electricity generation is proposed in order to be followed and verified throughout the present dissertation, as it is applied for The Gambia. The main input data for the proposed master plan are (i) energy demand analysis and forecast over 20 years and (ii) resource assessment for different renewable energy alternatives including their related power supply options. The energy demand forecast is based on a mix between Top-Down and Bottom-Up methodologies. The results are important data for future requirements of (primary) energy sources. The electricity forecast is separated in projections at sent-out level and at end-user level. On the supply side, Solar, Wind and Biomass, as sources of energy, are investigated in terms of technical potential and economic benefits for The Gambia. Other criteria i.e. environmental and social are not considered in the evaluation. Diverse supply options are proposed and technically designed based on the assessed renewable energy potential. This process includes the evaluation of the different available conversion technologies and finalizes with the dimensioning of power supply solutions, taking into consideration technologies which are applicable and appropriate under the special conditions of The Gambia. The balance of these two input data (demand and supply) gives a quantitative indication of the substitution potential of renewable energy generation alternatives in primarily fossil-fuel-based electricity generation systems, as well as fuel savings due to the deployment of renewable resources. Afterwards, the identified renewable energy supply options are ranked according to the outcomes of an economic analysis. Based on this ranking, and other considerations, a 20-year investment plan, broken down into five-year investment periods, is prepared and consists of individual renewable energy projects for electricity generation. These projects included basically on-grid renewable energy applications. Finally, a priority project from the master plan portfolio is selected for further deeper analysis. Since solar PV is the most relevant proposed technology, a PV power plant integrated to the fossil-fuel powered main electrical system in The Gambia is considered as priority project. This project is analysed by economic competitiveness under the current conditions in addition to sensitivity analysis with regard to oil and new-technology market conditions in the future.