Wind speed perception and risk

Background How accurately do people perceive extreme wind speeds and how does that perception affect the perceived risk? Prior research on human–wind interaction has focused on comfort levels in urban settings or knock-down thresholds. No systematic experimental research has attempted to assess people's ability to estimate extreme wind speeds and perceptions of their associated risks. Method We exposed 76 people to 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 mph (4.5, 8.9, 13.4, 17.9, 22.3, and 26.8 m/s) winds in randomized orders and asked them to estimate wind speed and the corresponding risk they felt. Results Multilevel modeling showed that people were accurate at lower wind speeds but overestimated wind speeds at higher levels. Wind speed perceptions mediated the direct relationship between actual wind speeds and perceptions of risk (i.e., the greater the perceived wind speed, the greater the perceived risk). The number of tropical cyclones people had experienced moderated the strength of the actual–perceived wind speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced fewer storms. Conclusion These findings provide a clearer understanding of wind and risk perception, which can aid development of public policy solutions toward communicating the severity and risks associated with natural disasters.

Numerical investigation of the influence of topography on simulated downburst wind fields

A, dry, non-hydrostatic sub-cloud model is used to simulate an isolated stationary downburst wind event to study the influence topographic features have on the near-ground wind structure of these storms. It was generally found that storm maximum wind speeds could be increased by up to 30% because of the presence of a topographic feature at the location of maximum wind speeds. Comparing predicted velocity profile amplification with that of a steady flow impinging jet, similar results were found despite the simplifications made in the impinging jet model. Comparison of these amplification profiles with those found in the simulated boundary layer winds reveal reductions of up to 30% in the downburst cases. Downburst and boundary layer amplification profiles were shown to become more similar as the topographic feature height was reduced with respect to the outflow depth.

Influence of tilt and surface roughness on the outflow wind field of an impinging jet

A physical and numerical steady flow impinging jet has been used to simulate the bulk characteristics of a downburst-like wind field. The influence of downdraft tilt and surface roughness on the ensuing wall jet flow has been investigated. It was found that a simulated downdraft impinging the surface at a non-normal angle has the potential for causing larger structural loads than the normal impingement case. It was also found that for the current impinging jet simulations, surface roughness played a minor role in determining the storm maximum wind structure, but this influence increased as the wall jet diverged. However, through comparison with previous research it was found that the influence of surface roughness is Reynolds number dependent and therefore may differ from that reported herein for full-scale downburst cases. Using the current experimental results an empirical model has been developed for laboratory-scale impinging jet velocity structure that includes the influence of both jet tilt and surface roughness.

Wind pressure measurements on a cube subjected to pulsed impinging jet flow

A pulsed impinging jet is used to simulate the gust front of a thunderstorm downburst. This work concentrates on investigating the peak transient loading conditions on a 30 mm cubic model submerged in the simulated downburst flow. The outflow induced pressures are recorded and compared to those from boundary layer and steady wall jet flow. Given that peak winds associated with downburst events are often located in the transient frontal region, the importance of using a non-stationary modelling technique for assessing peak downburst wind loads is highlighted with comparisons.

Numerical simulation of idealised three-dimensional downburst wind fields

Convective downburst wind storms generate the peak annual gust wind speed for many parts of the non-cyclonic world at return periods of importance for ultimate limit state design. Despite this there is little clear understanding of how to appropriately design for these wind events given their significant dissimilarities to boundary layer winds upon which most design is based. To enhance the understanding of wind fields associated with these storms a three-dimensional numerical model was developed to simulate a multitude of idealised downburst scenarios and to investigate their near-ground wind characteristics. Stationary and translating downdraft wind events in still and sheared environments were simulated with baseline results showing good agreement with previous numerical work and full-scale observational data. Significant differences are shown in the normalised peak wind speed velocity profiles depending on the environmental wind conditions in the vicinity of the simulated event. When integrated over the height of mid- to high rise structures, all simulated profiles are shown to produce wind loads smaller than an equivalent 10 m height matched open terrain boundary layer profile. This suggests that for these structures the current design approach is conservative from an ultimate loading standpoint. Investigating the influence of topography on the structure of the simulated near-ground downburst wind fields, it is shown that these features amplify wind speeds in a manner similar to that expected for boundary layer winds, but the extent of amplification is reduced. The level of reduction is shown to be dependent on the depth of the simulated downburst outflow.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

Application of machine learning technique in wind turbine fault diagnosis

In this study, a machine learning technique called anomaly detection is employed for wind turbine bearing fault detection. Basically, the anomaly detection algorithm is used to recognize the presence of unusual and potentially faulty data in a dataset, which contains two phases: a training phase and a testing phase. Two bearing datasets were used to validate the proposed technique, fault-seeded bearing from a test rig located at Case Western Reserve University to validate the accuracy of the anomaly detection method, and a test to failure data of bearings from the NSF I/UCR Center for Intelligent Maintenance Systems (IMS). The latter data set was used to compare anomaly detection with SVM, a previously well-known applied method, in rapidly finding the incipient faults.

Curricula integration : identifying and locating engineering education across the Australian curriculum

Science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) has become an educational package emerging throughout the world (e.g. UK, China, US & Australia). Although science, technology and mathematics are taught in schools and engineering education occurs in universities, there appear to be few if any explicit engineering education programs in primary and junior secondary schools. A stronger inclusion of engineering education at these levels could assist students to make informed decisions about career opportunities in STEM-related fields. This paper suggests how engineering education can be integrated with other key learning areas such as English, mathematics, science, history and geography within the new Australian Curriculum.

Risk-management of UAS robust autonomy for its integration into civil aviation safety frameworks

This paper discusses a model of the civil aviation reg- ulation framework and shows how the current assess- ment of reliability and risk for piloted aircraft has limited applicability for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) with high levels of autonomous decision mak- ing. Then, a new framework for risk management of robust autonomy is proposed, which arises from combining quantified measures of risk with normative decision making. The term Robust Autonomy de- scribes the ability of an autonomous system to either continue or abort its operation whilst not breaching a minimum level of acceptable safety in the presence of anomalous conditions. The decision making associ- ated with risk management requires quantifying prob- abilities associated with the measures of risk and also consequences of outcomes related to the behaviour of autonomy. The probabilities are computed from an assessment under both nominal and anomalous sce- narios described by faults, which can be associated with the aircraft’s actuators, sensors, communication link, changes in dynamics, and the presence of other aircraft in the operational space. The consequences of outcomes are characterised by a loss function which rewards the certification decision

The role of the ethnic enclave in facilitating immigrant business performance and social integration

Chinese immigrant entrepreneurs, known the world over for their successful business practices (Kee, 1994), tend to start businesses within their ethnic enclave. But in a move away from multiculturalism, host countries increasingly fear that immigration and asylum pose a threat to social integration resulting in a lack of social cohesion and a plethora of government programs (Cheong, Edwards, Goulbourne & Solomos, 2007). For many immigrant entrepreneurs, the EE is an integral part of their social and cultural context and the location where ethnic resources reside (Logan, Alba & Stults, 2003). Immigrant entrepreneurs can harness the networks for labor and customers through various ties in their EE (Portes and Zhou, 1996). Yang, Ho and Chang (2010) illustrate in their paper that the Chinese immigrant entrepreneurs (IE) were able to utilize ethnic network resources as their social capital in order to reduce transaction costs and thus enhance business performance. Tilly (1990) explains that immigrants’ reliance on such networks for business or other information minimizes the socioeconomic hardships they would experience in host countries (Raijman & Tienda, 2000). Acquiring jobs in ethnic businesses and establishing businesses within an EE may facilitate migrants’ social integration into the host country (Tian & Shan, 1999). Although an EE has distinct economic advantages for immigrant entrepreneurs, Sequeira and Rasheed (2006: 367) argue that ‘Exclusive reliance on strong ties within the immigrant enclave has a negative effect on growth outside the enclave community.’ Similarly, Drori, Honig and Ginsberg (2010: 20) also propose that ‘The greater the reliance of transnational entrepreneurs on ethnic (versus societal) embedded resources and network structure, the narrower their possibilities of expanding the scope of their business.’ This research asks, ‘What is the role of the ethnic enclave in facilitating immigrant business growth and social integration? This project has the following important aims: A1 To better understand the role of IE, in particular Chinese IE in the Australian economy A2 To investigate the role of the EE in facilitating or inhibiting immigrant business performance A3 To understand how locating their firm inside or outside of the EE will affect the IE’s embeddedness in co-ethnic and nonco-ethnic networks and social integration A4 To understand how an IE’s social network affects business performance and social integration

Design of light gauge steel roofing systems subject to high wind forces

Light gauge steel roofing systems made of thin profiled roof sheeting and battens are used commonly in residential, industrial and commercial buildings. Their critical design load combination is that due to wind uplift forces that occur during high wind events such as tropical cyclones and thunderstorms. However, premature local failures at their screw connections have been a concern for many decades since cyclone Tracy that devastated Darwin in 1974. Extensive research that followed cyclone Tracy on the pull-through and pull-out failures of roof sheeting to batten connections has significantly improved the safety of roof sheeting. However, this has made the batten to rafter/truss connection the weakest, and recent wind damage investigations have shown the failures of these connections and the resulting loss of entire roof structures. Therefore an experimental research program using both small scale and full scale air-box tests is currently under way to investigate the pull-through failures of thin-walled steel battens under high wind uplift forces. Tests have demonstrated that occurrence of pull-through failures in the bottom flanges of steel batttens and the need to develop simple test and design methods as a function of many critical parameters such as steel batten geometry, thickness and grade, screw fastener sizes and other fastening details. This paper presents the details of local failures that occur in light fauge roofing systems, a review of the current design and test methods for steel battens and associated short comings, and the test results obtained to date on pull-through failures of battens from small scale and full scale tests. Finally, it proposes the use of suitable small scale test methods that can be used by both researchers and manufacturers of such screw-fastened light gauge steel batten systems.

Educational paradox : the hidden obstacles to the integration of mobile phones in the language classroom

This paper reports on the findings of an international telecollaboration study using Facebook, in which teachers studying in M. Ed programs in Australia and Greece, discussed the use of mobile phones in language classrooms. Results suggest that invisible barriers exist in the use of mobile phones in the classroom, including bans on use in schools, lack of familiarity with educational uses for mobile phones, and negative perceptions about mobile phones specifically in terms of classroom management.

Anti-wind-up designs for dynamic positioning of marine vehicles with control allocation

This paper presents a framework for the design of a joint motion controller and a control allocation strategy for dynamic positioning of marine vehicles. The key aspects of the proposed designs are a systematic approach to deal with actuator saturation and to inform the motion controller about saturation. The proposed system uses a mapping that translates the actuator constraint sets into constraint sets at the motion controller level. Hence, while the motion controller addresses the constraints, the control allocation algorithm can solve an unconstrained optimisation problem. The constrained control design is approached using a multivariable anti-wind-up strategy for strictly proper controllers. This is applicable to the implementation of PI and PID type of motion controllers.

Smart resource control in distribution network to improve the integration level of PV

This project was an innovative approach in developing smart coordination of available energy resources to improve the integration level of PV in distribution network. Voltage and loading issues are considered as the main concerns for future electricity grid which need to be avoided using such resources. A distributed control structure was proposed for the resources in distribution network to avoid noted power quality issues.

Design of a least-cost battery-supercapacitor energy storage system for realizing dispatchable wind power

A statistical approach is used in the design of a battery-supercapacitor energy storage system for a wind farm. The design exploits the technical merits of the two energy storage mediums, in terms of the differences in their specific power and energy densities, and their ability to accommodate different rates of change in the charging/discharging powers. By treating the input wind power as random and using a proposed coordinated power flows control strategy for the battery and the supercapacitor, the approach evaluates the energy storage capacities, the corresponding expected life cycle cost/year of the storage mediums, and the expected cost/year of unmet power dispatch. A computational procedure is then developed for the design of a least-cost/year hybrid energy storage system to realize wind power dispatch at a specified confidence level.