Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Culex saltanensis Dyar, 1928: natural vector of Plasmodium juxtanucleare in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Searching for the natural vector of Plasmodium juxtanucleare in an enzootic locality: Granjas Calábria (33% of the chickens infected), Jacarepaguá, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 13 comparative captures of mosquitoes were carried out, simultaneously on man (out-doors) and on chiken (in a poultry-yard), between 6 and 9 p.m., from September to March 1989. Culex saltanensis was the most frequent species in captures on chicken, accounting for 41.7% of the mosquitoes collected on this bait, showing to be highly ornithophilic (90% captured on chicken versus 10% on man). Seven specimens of Cx. saltanensis were found naturally infected in granjas Calábria: five with mature pedunculate oocysts and two with sporozoites (on in the haemocoele and one in the salivary glands). These sporozoites porudced an infection by P. juxtanucleare in a chick, which had parasitemia on day 41 after inoculation. One Cx. coronator was found with mature pedunculate oocysts. Culex saltanensis was regarded as primary vector of P. juxtanucleare in Rio de Janeiro for being highly ornithophilic and in enough density to maintain the transmission, having been found with infective sporozoites in its salivary glands, and being susceptible to the parasite and able to transmit experimentally it by the bite.

Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions

There is a vast literature that specifies Bayesian shrinkage priors for vector autoregressions (VARs) of possibly large dimensions. In this paper I argue that many of these priors are not appropriate for multi-country settings, which motivates me to develop priors for panel VARs (PVARs). The parametric and semi-parametric priors I suggest not only perform valuable shrinkage in large dimensions, but also allow for soft clustering of variables or countries which are homogeneous. I discuss the implications of these new priors for modelling interdependencies and heterogeneities among different countries in a panel VAR setting. Monte Carlo evidence and an empirical forecasting exercise show clear and important gains of the new priors compared to existing popular priors for VARs and PVARs.

Are dead Triatoma infestans a competent vector of Trypanosoma cruzi?

After Triatoma infestans death, Trypanosoma cruzi survived several days, maintaining the ability to infect a vertebrate host. Dead bugs from an endemic area collected during an official spraying comapign showed mobile rectal tripanosomes up to 14 days after vector death. Two days after vector death2, 760 tripomastigotes were found alive in its rectal material. However, the number of mobile tripomastigotes decreased significantly from the 5th day after death. Laboratory proofs with third and fifth nymphal stage showed similar results. Living tripanosomes were found in their rectal material at 10 days in third stage and even at 30 days in fifth nymphal stage. The mean number of tripomastigotes had no changes up to 10 days in third nymphal stage and increased significantly from 1 to 10 days in the fifth stage. Conjuctival instillation as well as intraperitoneal innoculation to mice, of metacyclic forms from dead T. infestans produced infection in the vertebrate host. Present results show that human contact with dead vector highly probable in summer and living and infective T. cruzi are available for transmision in the vector.

Influence of short time exposure to an insect growth regulator, hexaflumuron, on mortality and adult emergence of vector mosquitoes

Hexaflumuron, an insect growth regulator (IGR), was found to greatly affect the development of immatures and emergence of adults of three species of vector mosquitoes, Culex quinquefasciatus, Aedes aegypti and Anopheles stephensi, when larvae were subjected to short time exposure of < or = 1h. This IGR could completely prevent adult emergence even at a minimum exposure time of 10 min at 0.001, 0.01 and 0.1 mg/l. On treatment, larval and pupal mortality as well as varying degrees of morphogenetic abnormalities were induced in immatures and adults of the three species. Four weeks of control achieved in a slow moving sullage canal breeding Culex quinquefasciatus indicates that this IGR can be of use in such breeding habitats.

The level of infestation with the vector of cattle babesiosis in Argentina

Studies were carried out to determine the differential aptitude to sustain the only vector of cattle babesiosis in Argentina, the tick Boophilus microplus, throughout the infested region of this country. Tick counts on Bos taurus cattle were used as the main criterion to classify favourable (F), intermediate (I) and unfavourable (U) areas for its development. The geographical limits of each area set up using data of non-parasitic tick stages, temperature, water balance and map recognition of flooded and unflooded zones. The F area contained 16.5 x 10 (elevado a sexta potência) ha with a cattle population of 6 x 10 (elevado a sexta potência); the I and U areas had 25 x 10 (elevado a sexta potência ha with 2.7 x 10 (elevado a sexta potência) cattle and 198 x 10 (elevado a sexta potência) with population of 2.4 x 10(elevado a sexta potência) cattle, respectively. Research on the relationship amongst Babesia-Boophilus-cattle is needed in the F area for tick development which coincides with the best region for cattle breeding.

Vector incrimination and effects of antimalarial drugs on malaria transmission and control in the Amazon Basin of Brazil

World ecosystems differ significantly and a multidisciplinary malaria control approach must be adjusted to meet these requirements. These include a comprehensive understanding of the malaria vectors, their behavior, seasonal distribution and abundance, susceptibility to insecticides (physiological and behavioral), methods to reduce the numbers of human gametocyte carriers through effective health care systems and antimalarial drug treatment, urban malaria transmission versus rural or forest malaria transmission, and the impact of vaccine development. Many malaria vectors are members of species complexes and individual relationship to malaria transmission, seasonal distribution, bitting behavior, etc. is poorly understood. Additionaly, malaria patients are not examined for circulating gametocytes and both falciparum and vivax malaria patients may be highly infective to mosquitoes after treatment with currently used antimalarial drugs. Studies on the physiological and behavioral effects of DDT and other insecticides are inconclusive and need to be evalusted.

Effects of azadirachtin on Rhodnius prolixus: immunity and trypanosoma interaction

The effects of azadirachtin, a tetranortriterpenoid from the neem tree Aradirachta indica J. on both immunity and Trypanosoma cruzi interaction within Rhodniusprolixus and other triatomines, were presented Given through a blood meal, azadirachtin affected the immune reactivity as shown by a significant reduction in numbers of hemocytes and consequently nodule formation follwing challenge with Enterobacter cloacae ß12, reduction in ability to produce antibacterial activities in the hemolymph when injected with bacteria, and decreased ability to destroy the infection caused by inoculation of E. cloacae cells. A single dose of azadirachtin was able to block the development of T. cruzi in R. prolixus if given through the meal at different intervals, together with, before or after parasite infection. Similary, these results were observed with different triatomine species and different strains of T. cruzi. Azadirachtin induced a permanent resistance of the vector against reinfection with T. cruzi. The significance of these data is discussed in relation to the general mode of azadirachtin action in insects.

Vitellogenesis in insects and other groups: a review

The eggs from oviparous organisms contain large amounts of vitellus, or yolk, wich are utilized by the growing embryo. Vitellogenesis is the process of vitellus accumulation and involves massive heterosynthetic synthesis of the protein vitellogenin (Vg) and its deposition in the oocyte. This work summarizes data on Vg structure, synthesis, uptake by oocytes and its fate during embryogenesis. The hormonal control of vitellogenesis and its tissue, sex and temporal regulation are also discussed. Where it is available, data on structure and expression of Vg-coding genes are reviewed. Insect vitellogenesis is priorized although other oviparous animal groups outside insects are also treated.

Cytological and isoenzyme analysis of the Bucay and Quevedo cytotypes of the onchocerciasis vector Simulium exiguum (Diptera: Simuliidae) in Ecuador

Four cytotypes of Simulium exiguum occur in Ecuador, where this morphospecies is the primary vector of onchocerciasis. In this paper, we give the first full description of the banding pattern of the larval polytene chromosomes of the Quevedo cytotypes differ from the chromosomal standard sequence (of the Cayapa cytotype) by the fixed inversions IIL-5 and IIL-6. The Quevedo cytotype additionally differs from the standard and Bucay cytotypes by processing a differentiated X chromosome, wich is indicated by the inversion IIS-A. As the degree of reproductive isolation between the Bucay and Quevedo cytotypes has not yet been estabilished, they must be regarded as intraspecific variants of the same species. In fact, isoenzyme characterizations showed that the Bucay and Quevedo cytotypes are differentiated only to the extent expected of incipient species or geographical populations. Moreover, the sibiling species status previously given to the Bucay cytotype needs be reassessed, there being inadequate analysis from areas in Ecuador where Bucay occurs in sympatry with the standard Cayapa cytotype. No isoenzyme electromorphs were discovered that identified all or mostadult females of any one (cytotype-pure) collection.