Picking the Right Budget Constraint for Scotland

This position paper considers the devolution of further fiscal powers to the Scottish Parliament in the context of the objectives and remit of the Smith Commission. The argument builds on our discussion of fiscal decentralization made in our previous published work on this topic. We ask what sort of budget constraint the Scottish Parliament should operate with. A soft budget constraint (SBC) allows the Scottish Parliament to spend without having to consider all of the tax and, therefore, political consequences, of that spending, which is effectively the position at the moment. The incentives to promote economic growth through fiscal policy – on both the tax and spending sides are weak to non-existent. This is what the Scotland Act, 1998, and the continuing use of the Barnett block grant, gave Scotland. Now other budget constraints are being discussed – those of the Calman Commission (2009) and the Scotland Act (2012), as well as the ones offered in 2014 by the various political parties – Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Greens, Scottish Labour, the Scottish Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Government. There is also the budget constraint designed by the Holtham Commission (2010) for Wales that could just as well be used in Scotland. We examine to what extent these offer the hard budget constraint (HBC) that would bring tax policy firmly into the realm of Scottish politics, asking the Scottish electorate and Parliament to consider the costs to them of increasing spending in terms of higher taxes; or the benefits to them of using public spending to grow the tax base and own-sourced taxes? The hardest budget constraint of all is offered by independence but, as is now known, a clear majority of those who voted in the referendum did not vote for this form of budget constraint. Rather they voted for a significant further devolution of fiscal powers while remaining within a political and monetary union with the rest of the UK, with the risk pooling and revenue sharing that this implies. It is not surprising therefore that none of the budget constraints on offer, apart from the SNP’s, come close to the HBC of independence. However, the almost 25% fall in the price of oil since the referendum, a resource stream so central to the SNP’s economic policy making, underscores why there is a need for a trade off between a HBC and risk pooling and revenue sharing. Ranked according to the desirable characteristic of offering something approaching a HBC the least desirable are those of the Calman Commission, the Scotland Act, 2012, and Scottish Labour. In all of these the ‘elasticity’ of the block grant in the face of failure to grow the Scottish tax base is either not defined or is very elastic – meaning that the risk of failure is shuffled off to taxpayers outside of Scotland. The degree of HBC in the Scottish Conservative, Scottish Greens and Scottish Liberal Democrats proposals are much more desirable from an economic growth point of view, the latter even embracing the HBC proposed by the Holtham Commission that combines serious tax policy with welfare support in the long-run. We judge that the budget constraint in the SNP’s proposals is too hard as it does not allow for continuation of the ‘welfare union’ in the UK. We also consider that in the case of a generalized UK economic slow requiring a fiscal stimulus that the Scottish Parliament be allowed increased borrowing to be repaid in the next economic upturn.

Budget constrained expenditure multipliers

We show that standard expenditure multipliers capture economy-wide effects of new government projects only when financing constraints are not binding. In actual policy making, however, new projects usually need financing. Under liquidity constraints, new projects are subject to two opposite effects: an income effect and a set of spending substitution effects. The former is the traditional, unrestricted, multiplier effect; the latter is the result of expenditure reallocation to upheld effective financing constraints. Unrestricted multipliers will therefore be, as a general rule, upward biased and policy designs based upon them should be reassessed in the light of the countervailing substitution effects.

Integración de políticas medio ambientales: Transformaciones institucionales en España

La Integración de la Políticas Ambientales (IPA) consiste en la incorporación de los objetivos ambientales en todos los estadios de elaboración e implementación de las políticas no ambientales (o sectoriales), con un reconocimiento específico de dicho objetivo como principio director de la programación y la puesta en práctica. Se complementa con la previsión de las consecuencias ambientales mediante una evaluación de conjunto de la política con objeto de minimizar las contradicciones entre las políticas ambientales y no ambientales dando prioridad a las primeras. La naturaleza transversal de la IPA no se ajusta a la forma tradicional de gobernanza jerárquica basada en la autoridad del Estado, la diferenciación sectorial, y los instrumentos típicos de dirección y control. Por ello, no es extraño que la IPA se encuentre a menudo asociada a los llamados "nuevos modos de gobernanza". Esta tesis propone analizar empíricamente el estado de la cuestión en España con respecto a la Integración de la política ambiental , tanto a nivel estatal como autonómico (Cataluña, País Vasco), yendo más allá de los compromisos políticos a favor de un mayor grado de integración de los factores ambientales en las demás políticas. En particular, los ámbitos de investigación seleccionados para esta finalidad son el de las políticas de mitigación de las causas y los efectos del cambio climático, y las políticas de desarrollo sostenible. En términos de ‘variable independiente’ La hipótesis que se quiere comprobar es que la acción llevada a cabo por la Unión Europea ha generado profundos cambios en las estructuras de las instituciones mencionadas y en los procesos de elaboración y implementación de determinadas políticas (energía y transporte) así como en las relaciones entre sectores de la administración pública y entre el sector público y el privado.

Regulatory federalism in network industries

Report for the scientific sojourn at the UC Berkeley, USA, from march until july 2008. This document starts by surveying the literature on economic federalism and relating it to network industries. The insights and some new developments (which focus on the role of interjurisdictional externalities, multiple objectives and investment incentives) are used to analyze regulatory arrangements in telecommunications and energy in the EU and the US. In the long history of vertically integrated monopolies in telecommunications and energy, there was a historical trend to move regulation up in the vertical structure of government, at least form the local level to the state or nation-state level. This move alleviated the pressure on regulators to renege on the commitment not to expropriate sunk investments, although it did not eliminate the practice of taxation by regulation that was the result of multiple interest group action. Although central or federal policy making is more focused and especialized and makes it difficult for more interest groups to organize, it is not clear that under all conditions central powers will not be associated with underinvestment. When technology makes the introduction of competition in some segments possible, the possibilities for organizing the institutional architechture of regulation expand. The central level may focus on structural regulation and the location of behavioral regulation of the remaining monopolists may be resolved in a cooperative way or concentrated at the level where the relevant spillovers are internalized.

Annual Report to the Equality Commission 04-05 (PDF 187 KB)

The Department’s Evaluation and Equality Unit provides advice and guidance to colleagues throughout the Department who are planning and undertaking reviews and evaluations of programmes, services and policies, and provides guidance and information to support the policy-making processes. In carrying out this function the Unit has continued to help colleagues to mainstream equality considerations into decision-making, reviews and evaluations from the earliest stages of these processes. åÊ

Political Competition in Hard Times

This paper analyzes a spatial model of political competition between two policy- motivated parties in hard times of crisis. Hard times are modeled in terms of policy- making costs carried by a newly elected party. The results predict policy divergence in equilibrium. If the ideological preferences of parties are quite diverse and extreme, there is a unique equilibrium in which the parties announce symmetric platforms and each party wins with probability one half. If one party is extreme while the other is more moderate, there is a unique equilibrium in which the parties announce asymmetric platforms. If the preferred policies of the parties are not very distinct, there are two equilibria with asymmetric platforms. An important property of equilibrium with asymmetric platforms is that a winning party necessarily announces its most preferred policy as a platform. JEL classification: D72. Keywords: Spatial model; Political competition; Two-party system; Policy-motivated parties; Hard times; Crisis.

National Council on Ageing and Older People - Annual Report 2008

National Council on Ageing and Older People РAnnual Report 2008 2008 was a year of change for the National Council on Ageing and Older People. In January the Government announced the establishment of the Office for Older People at the Department of Health and Children and that the Office would have a key role in progressing the Government̢?Ts agenda for older people. The decision provided that Council staff would be transferred to the Office and that the Council would be replaced by an Advisory Council. Although a sad day for the Council itself, we regard this as a significant step forward in bringing older people̢?Ts issues right to the centre of Government policy-making. Click here to download PDF 333kb

National Positive Ageing Strategy

The Programme for Government committed to completing and implementing the National Positive Ageing Strategy so that older people are recognised, supported and enabled to live independent full lives. This Strategy, which was published in April 2013, is a new departure in policy making for older people given its focus on the broader determinants of health. It is the blueprint for age related policy and service delivery in Ireland, outlining a vision for positive ageing and older people, the national goals and objectives required to achieve this vision and a suite of priority areas for action that are based on the broader determinants of health. Therefore, a whole of Government and whole of society approach will be required to implement the National Positive Ageing Strategy and to address these priority action areas. Click here to download PDF 2.49MB  

Understanding socio-economic inequalities affecting older people

In 2012, CARDI was asked by The Office of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister in Northern Ireland to carry out a series of research projects on ageing in Ireland, North and South. This research project, 'Understanding socio-economic inequalities affecting older people’ , was carried out by Paul McGill, CARDI. The research sought to answer the following questions: Are there inequalities that affect older people as a group compared with younger people, or inequalities that exist within the older population? How are these inequalities changing over time? Do these socio-economic inequalities have a detrimental impact on older people or on a substantial number of them? How can any harmful socio-economic inequalities be reduced or eliminated and what are the implications for policy-making? Key Findings*: In RoI the poorest older people had a rise of €32 per week between 2004 and 2011 in total incomes while those with the highest incomes had a rise of €255 (CSO 2013). Total incomes of the poorest pensioner couples in NI did not change between 2003-06 and 2008-11 but the best off had a rise of �37 per week (DSD 2013). Employees aged 60+ earn €10,000 less per year than earners in their peak years in RoI and �2,400 less in NI (CSO Database and NISRA 2012). The richest older people in RoI earn 14 times more from employment than the poorest. In NI it is 36 times more for single pensioners and 44 times more for pensioner couples (CSO 2013; NISRA 2013). The gap in weekly earnings between top and bottom earners aged 60+ in NI rose from �294 to �430 between 2005 and 2012 (NISRA 2012). In the two years 2009-2011 the incomes of the poorest older people in ROI declined by €24 per week (11.4%) (CSO, 2013).

The Politics of Network Governance in Europe: The Case of Energy Regulation

Networks are considered increasingly important for policy-making. The literature on new modes of governance in Europe suggests that their horizontal coordination capacity and flexible and informal structures are particularly suitable for governing the multilevel architecture of the European polity. However, empirical evidence about the effects of networks on policy-making and public policies is still quite limited. This article uses the case of the European network of energy regulators to explore the determinants of the position of network members and, in turn, the domestic adoption of soft rules developed within this network. The empirical analysis, based on multivariate statistics and semi-directive interviews, supports the expectation that institutional complementarities increase actors' centrality in networks, while arguments based on organisational resources and age are disproved. Furthermore, results show that the overall level of adoption is considerable and that centrality might have a small positive effect on domestic adoption.

Beyond the insiders' circle: disseminating the results of adolescent health surveys.

Adolescent health surveys, like those for other segments of the population, tend to remain in the hands of researchers, where they can have no real impact on the way critical health issues are dealt with by policy makers or other professionals directly connected to young people in their everyday work. This paper reviews important issues concerning the dissemination of survey results among professionals from various fields. The content, length and wording of the messages should be tailored to the audience one wants to reach as well as the type of channels used for their diffusion. Survey data sets can be used to select priorities for interventions: ad hoc presentations, attractive summaries and brochures, or even films expressing young peoples' opinions have been used by European public health professionals to make data sets usable in various local, regional and national contexts. CONCLUSION: The impact of these diffusion strategies is, however, difficult to assess and needs to be refined. The adequate delivery of survey findings as well as advocacy and lobbying activities require specific skills which can be endorsed by specialized professionals. Ultimately, it is the researchers' responsibility to ensure that such tasks are effectively performed.

Nanoparticle usage and protection measures in the manufacturing industry : a representative survey

Addressing the risks of nanoparticles requires knowledge about release into the environment and occupational exposure. However, such information currently is not systematically collected; therefore, this risk assessment lacks quantitative data. The goal was to evaluate the current level of nanoparticle usage in Swiss industry as well as health, safety, and environmental measures, and the number of potentially exposed workers. A representative, stratified mail survey was conducted among 1626 clients of the Swiss National Accident Insurance Fund (SUVA), which insures 80,000 manufacturing firms, representing 84% of all Swiss manufacturing companies (947 companies answered the survey for a 58.3% response rate). The extrapolation to all Swiss manufacturing companies results in 1309 workers (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1073 to 1545) potentially exposed to nanoparticles in 586 companies (95% CI: 145 to 1027). This corresponds to 0.08% of workers (95% CI: 0.06% to 0.09%) and to 0.6% of companies (95% CI: 0.2% to 1.1%). The industrial chemistry sector showed the highest percentage of companies using nanoparticles (21.2%). Other important sectors also reported nanoparticles. Personal protection equipment was the predominant protection strategy. Only a few applied specific environmental protection measures. This is the first nationwide representative study on nanoparticle use in the manufacturing sector. The information gained can be used for quantitative risk assessment. It can also help policymakers design strategies to support companies developing a safer use of nanomaterial. Notingthe current low use of nanoparticles, there is still time to proactively introduce protective methods. If the predicted "nano-revolution" comes true, now is the time to take action. [Supplementary materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Journal of occupational and Environmental Hygiene for the following free supplemental resource: a pdf file containing a detailed description of the approach to statistical analyses, English translation of the questionnaire, additional information for Figure 1, and additional information for the SUVA-code.] [Authors]

Framing the Europeanization footprint: a follow-up of the EU renewable electricity directive and its impact in Spai

És àmpliament conegut que l'europeïtzació ha guanyat molt terreny en els estudis europeus. Des de finals de la dècada de 1990, ha gaudit d'una important expansió per tal d'avaluar l'eficàcia de les polítiques a escala europea en l'àmbit intern. En aquest procés la política energètica ha jugat un paper molt paradoxal, sent persistentment exclosos de l'agenda de recerca de la europeïtzació, encara que la seva creixent importància en l'elaboració de polítiques comunitàries. No obstant això, la realitat és que, tot i haver estat reconegut recentment com una àrea de la UE amb l'aplicació del Tractat de Lisboa, també ha estat influenciat, directament o indirectament, pels efectes de l'europeïtzació. Com a resultat d'això, la política energètica ha estat considerat com un "cas especial" de l'europeïtzació, portant fins al moment per a la construcció d'un sector caracteritzat la política energètica europea. En aquest context, el present treball pretén explicar l'europeïtzació de les polítiques energètiques nacionals en l'elaboració de l'actuació de la UE per mitjà de la seva competència ambiental. Més explícitament, aquesta investigació tracta de la naturalesa de la reglamentació comunitària en matèria d'energia renovable com un mecanisme d'europeïtzació amb especial èmfasi en el seu impacte a Espanya. Aquest treball sosté que (1) la lluita europea contra el canvi climàtic s'ha obert un camí per a la participació de la UE en matèria de política energètica, i que (2) encara que limitat aquest procés està produint alguns canvis en les polítiques energètiques nacionals. Universitat

España en Europa 1996-2004

Pensar globalmente, actuar localmente” es un slogan imprescindible en el discurso político de nuestros días. Pues bien, la práctica política, en materia de Unión Europea, de los dos gobiernos del Partido Popular, presididos por José María Aznar (1996-2004), nos permite acuñar un slogan de signo bien diferente: “pensar localmente, actuar en Europa”. En efecto, si algo caracteriza a estos ocho años de práctica política de José María Aznar es haber convertido sus preocupaciones domésticas en factor exclusivo de su estrategia europea, con independencia del contexto de cada momento y de la necesidad de encajar objetivos nacionales con objetivos europeos. De ahí que sea lógico que la campaña electoral que ha precedido a las elecciones generales del 14 de marzo no haya recogido ninguno de los temas que dominan en la agenda de la UE en el momento actual. Ni la ampliación, ni la Constitución, ni tampoco el proceso de conformación de un núcleo duro tienen cabida en el debate político españo

Spain in Europe 1996-2004

“Thinking globally, acting locally" is an essential slogan in the current political discourse. Yet, in view of the policies on the European Union carried out by the two governments of the People’s Party (PP) headed by José María Aznar between 1996 and 2004, we could coin a quite different slogan: "thinking locally, acting in Europe". Indeed, José María Aznar’s policy-making during the last eight years has been characterised by turning his domestic concerns into the ‘exclusive factor’ of his European strategy, regardless of the context and the need for fitting in national objectives with Europeans’. Hence, it was natural that the electoral campaign preceding the general elections held on Sunday, 14 March, did not deal with any of the topics prevailing in the EU’s current agenda. Neither enlargement nor the Constitution, nor the process of shaping a core group within the EU, seem to have room in Spain’s political debate...