Wiggle-match dating of tree-ring sequences

Given the non-monotonic form of the radiocarbon calibration curve, the precision of single C-14 dates on the calendar timescale will always be limited. One way around this limitation is through comparison of time-series, which should exhibit the same irregular patterning as the calibration curve. This approach can be employed most directly in the case of wood samples with many years growth present (but not able to be dated by dendrochronology), where the tree-ring series of unknown date can be compared against the similarly constructed C-14 calibration curve built from known-age wood. This process of curve-fitting has come to be called "wiggle-matching." In this paper, we look at the requirements for getting good precision by this method: sequence length, sampling frequency, and measurement precision. We also look at 3 case studies: one a piece of wood which has been independently dendrochronologically dated, and two others of unknown age relating to archaeological activity at Silchester, UK (Roman) and Miletos, Anatolia (relating to the volcanic eruption at Thera).

Analysis of molecular determinants of affinity and relative efficacy of a series of R- and S-2-(dipropylamino)tetralins at the 5-HT1A serotonin receptor

1 Factors influencing agonist affinity and relative efficacy have been studied for the 5-HT1A serotonin receptor using membranes of CHO cells expressing the human form of the receptor and a series of R-and S-2-(dipropylamino)tetralins (nonhydroxylated and monohydroxylated (5-OH, 6-OH, 7-OH, 8-OH) species). 2 Ligand binding studies were used to determine dissociation constants for agonist binding to the 5HT(1A) receptor: (a) K-i values for agonists were determined in competition versus the binding of the agonist [H-3]-8-OH DPAT. Competition data were all fitted best by a one-binding site model. (b) K-i values for agonists were also determined in competition versus the binding of the antagonist [H-3]-NAD-199. Competition data were all fitted best by a two-binding site model, and agonist affinities for the higher (K-h) and lower affinity (K-1) sites were determined. 3 The ability of the agonists to activate the 5-HT1A receptor was determined using stimulation of [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding. Maximal effects of agonists (E-max) and their potencies (EC50) were determined from concentration/response curves for stimulation of [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding. 4 K-1/K-h determined from ligand binding assays correlated with the relative efficacy (relative Em) of agonists determined in [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding assays. There was also a correlation between K-1/K-h and K-1/EC50 for agonists determined from ligand binding and [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding assays. 5 Simulations of agonist binding and effect data were performed using the Ternary Complex Model in order to assess the use of K-1/K-h for predicting the relative efficacy of agonists. British Journal of Pharmacology (2003) 138, 1129-1139. doi: 10. 1038/sj.bjp.705085.

Probabilistic evaluation of time series models : a comparison of several approaches

Several methods are examined which allow to produce forecasts for time series in the form of probability assignments. The necessary concepts are presented, addressing questions such as how to assess the performance of a probabilistic forecast. A particular class of models, cluster weighted models (CWMs), is given particular attention. CWMs, originally proposed for deterministic forecasts, can be employed for probabilistic forecasting with little modification. Two examples are presented. The first involves estimating the state of (numerically simulated) dynamical systems from noise corrupted measurements, a problem also known as filtering. There is an optimal solution to this problem, called the optimal filter, to which the considered time series models are compared. (The optimal filter requires the dynamical equations to be known.) In the second example, we aim at forecasting the chaotic oscillations of an experimental bronze spring system. Both examples demonstrate that the considered time series models, and especially the CWMs, provide useful probabilistic information about the underlying dynamical relations. In particular, they provide more than just an approximation to the conditional mean.

Testing for unit roots in bounded time series

Many key economic and financial series are bounded either by construction or through policy controls. Conventional unit root tests are potentially unreliable in the presence of bounds, since they tend to over-reject the null hypothesis of a unit root, even asymptotically. So far, very little work has been undertaken to develop unit root tests which can be applied to bounded time series. In this paper we address this gap in the literature by proposing unit root tests which are valid in the presence of bounds. We present new augmented Dickey–Fuller type tests as well as new versions of the modified ‘M’ tests developed by Ng and Perron [Ng, S., Perron, P., 2001. LAG length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power. Econometrica 69, 1519–1554] and demonstrate how these tests, combined with a simulation-based method to retrieve the relevant critical values, make it possible to control size asymptotically. A Monte Carlo study suggests that the proposed tests perform well in finite samples. Moreover, the tests outperform the Phillips–Perron type tests originally proposed in Cavaliere [Cavaliere, G., 2005. Limited time series with a unit root. Econometric Theory 21, 907–945]. An illustrative application to U.S. interest rate data is provided

On the predictive content of leading indicators: the case of U.S. real estate markets

This paper employs a probit and a Markov switching model using information from the Conference Board Leading Indicator and other predictor variables to forecast the signs of future rental growth in four key U.S. commercial rent series. We find that both approaches have considerable power to predict changes in the direction of commercial rents up to two years ahead, exhibiting strong improvements over a naïve model, especially for the warehouse and apartment sectors. We find that while the Markov switching model appears to be more successful, it lags behind actual turnarounds in market outcomes whereas the probit is able to detect whether rental growth will be positive or negative several quarters ahead.

Dating coeval mafic magmatism and ultrahigh temperature metamorphism in the Anapolis-Itaucu Complex, Central Brazil

Dating granulites has always been of great interest because they represent one of the most extreme settings of an orogen. Owing to the resilience of zircon, even in such severe environments, the link between P-T conditions and geological time is possible. However, a challenge to geochronologists is to define whether the growth of new zircon is related to pre- or post-P-T peak conditions and which processes might affect the (re) crystallization. In this context, the Anapolis-Itaucu Complex, a high-grade complex in central Brazil with ultrahigh temperature (UHT) granulites, may provide valuable information within this topic. The Anapolis-Itaucu Complex (AIC) includes ortho- and paragranulites, locally presenting UHT mineral assemblages, with igneous zircon ages varying between 760 and 650 Ma and metamorphic overgrowths dated at around 650-640 Ma. Also common in the Anapolis-Itaucu Complex are layered mafic-ultramafic complexes metamorphosed under high-grade conditions. This article presents the first geological and geochronological constraints of three of these layered complexes within the AIC, the Damolandia, Taquaral and Goianira-Trindade complexes. U-Pb (LA-MC-ICPMS, SHRIMP and ID-TIMS) zircon analyses reveal a spread of concordant ages spanning within an age interval of similar to 80 Ma with an ""upper"" intercept age of similar to 670 Ma. Under cathodoluminescence imaging, these crystals show partially preserved primary sector zoning, as well as internal textures typical of alteration during high-grade metamorphism, such as inward-moving boundaries. Zircon grains reveal homogeneous initial (176)Hf/(177)Hf values in distinct crystal-scale domains in all samples. Moreover. Hf isotopic ratios show correlation neither with U-Pb ages nor with Th/U ratios, suggesting that zircon grains crystallized during a single growth event. It is suggested, therefore, that the observed spread of concordant U-Pb ages may be related to a memory effect due to coupled dissolution-reprecipitation process during high grade metamorphism. Therefore, understanding the emplacement and metamorphism of this voluminous mafic magmatism is crucial as it may represent an additional heat source for the development of the ultrahigh temperature paragenesis recorded in the paragranulites. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lu-Hf and U-Pb age determination of Capivarita Anorthosite in the Dom Feliciano Belt, Brazil

The Capivarita Anorthosite, formed in an intraplate environment and later metamorphosed under amphibolites fades conditions, is exposed in the Dom Feliciano Belt as part of the Brasiliano magmatic arc and occurs as a roof-pedant in, or is even intruded by, 0.6 Ga post-collisional granites. In this work, magmatic and metamorphic minerals were dated using the LA-MC-ICP-MS in situ method. U-Pb magmatic and metamorphic zircon dating yielded an age of 1573 +/- 21 Ma and of 606 +/- 6 Ma, respectively, whereas the igneous titanite dating yielded an age of 1530 +/- 33 Ma and the metamorphic ages were 651 +/- 9 Ma and 601 +/- 5 Ma. The Lu-Hf model ages showed two clusters from 1.81 to 2.03 Ga (calf from +2.21 to +6.42) and 2.55-2.62 Ga (epsilon epsilon Hf from -4.59 to -5.64). This intraplate magmatism can be connected to a very important episode of continental accretion in an extensional setting from the fragmentation of the supercontinent during the Early Mesoproterozoic. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The determinants of internationalstudent mobility : An empirical study on U.S. Data

The increase in foreign students in countries such as the US, the UK and Francesuggests that the international ‘education industry’ is growing in importance. Thepurpose of this paper is to investigate the empirical determinants of internationalstudent mobility. A secondary purpose is to give tentative policy suggestions to hostcountry, source country and also to provide some recommendations to students whowant to study abroad. Using pooled cross-sectional time series data for the US overthe time period 1993-2006, we estimate an econometric model of enrolment rates offoreign students in the US. Our results suggest that tuition fees, US federal support ofeducation, and the size of the ‘young’ generation of source countries have asignificant influence on international student mobility. We also consider other factorsthat may be relevant in this context.

Time-series properties and empirical evidence of growth and infraestructure: revised version

After more than forty years studying growth, there are two classes of growth models that have emerged: exogenous and endogenous growth models. Since both try to mimic the same set of long-run stylized facts, they are observationally equivalent in some respects. Our goals in this paper are twofold First, we discuss the time-series properties of growth models in a way that is useful for assessing their fit to the data. Second, we investigate whether these two models successfully conforms to U.S. post-war data. We use cointegration techniques to estimate and test long-run capital elasticities, exogeneity tests to investigate the exogeneity status of TFP, and Granger-causality tests to examine temporal precedence of TFP with respect to infrastructure expenditures. The empirical evidence is robust in confirming the existence of a unity long-run capital elasticity. The analysis of TFP reveals that it is not weakly exogenous in the exogenous growth model Granger-causality test results show unequivocally that there is no evidence that TFP for both models precede infrastructure expenditures not being preceded by it. On the contrary, we find some evidence that infras- tructure investment precedes TFP. Our estimated impact of infrastructure on TFP lay rougbly in the interval (0.19, 0.27).

Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions

It is well known that cointegration between the level of two variables (e.g. prices and dividends) is a necessary condition to assess the empirical validity of a present-value model (PVM) linking them. The work on cointegration,namelyon long-run co-movements, has been so prevalent that it is often over-looked that another necessary condition for the PVM to hold is that the forecast error entailed by the model is orthogonal to the past. This amounts to investigate whether short-run co-movememts steming from common cyclical feature restrictions are also present in such a system. In this paper we test for the presence of such co-movement on long- and short-term interest rates and on price and dividend for the U.S. economy. We focuss on the potential improvement in forecasting accuracies when imposing those two types of restrictions coming from economic theory.

Fission-track dating of South American natural glasses: an overview

Although many glass-bearing horizons can be found in South American volcanic complexes or sedimentary series, only a relatively few tephra and obsidian-bearing volcanic fields have been studied using the fission-track (FT) dating method. Among them, the volcanics located in the Sierra de Guamani (east of Quito, Ecuador) were studied by several authors. Based upon their ages, obsidians group into three clusters: (1) very young obsidians, similar to 0.2Ma old, (2) intermediate-age obsidians, similar to 0.4- similar to 0.8 Ma old, and (3) older obsidians, similar to 1.4- similar to 1.6 Ma old. The FT method is also an efficient alternative technique for identification of the sources of prehistoric obsidian artefacts. Provenance studies carried out in South America have shown that the Sierra de Guamani obsidian occurrences were important sources of raw material for toot making during pre-Columbian times. Glasses originated from these sources were identified in sites distributed over relatively wide areas of Ecuador and Colombia.Only a few systematic studies on obsidians in other sectors were carried out. Nevertheless, very singular glasses have been recognised in South America, such as Macusanite (Peru) and obsidian Quiron (Argentina), which are being proposed as additional reference materials for FT dating. Analyses of tephra beds interstratified with sedimentary deposits revealed the performance of FT dating in tephrochronological studies. A remarkable example is the famous deposit outcropping at Farola Monte Hermoso, near Bahia Blanca (Buenos Aires Province), described for the first time by the middle of the 19th century by Charles Darwin.Considering the large number of volcanic glasses that were recognised in volcanic complexes and in sedimentary series, South America is a very promising region for the application of FT dating. The examples given above show that this technique may yield important results in different disciplinary fields. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fission-track dating of Macusanite glasses with plateau and size correction methods

Two Macusanite pebbles (MB1 and MB2) were dated with the fission-track method. Six irradiations were carried out in different nuclear reactors: Pavia (Italy), IPEN-CNEN (Brazil) and IPEN-Lima (Peru). Measurements of the thorium and uranium induced-fission per target nucleus using natural thorium thin films and natural U-doped glasses calibrated against natural uranium thin films, together with lambda(F) of 8.46 x 10(-17) a(-1) were used to determine the ages. The apparent ages were corrected using the plateau and size correction methods. Track measurements were performed by different analysts, using different counting criteria. In addition, tracks were measured on samples which had been submitted to thermal treatment as well as on samples which had not been heated. Thermal treatments were carried out to erase the fossil tracks before neutron irradiation. No significant differences have been found in individual results, using the two Macusanite pebbles and the different nuclear reactors, age correction techniques, analysts, track-counting criteria, and thermal treatments before neutron irradiation. The great majority of the results (14/17) is compatible with the Ar-Ar ages of 5.12 +/- 0.11 and 5.10 +/- 0.11 Ma, Macusanite MB1 and MB2, respectively. However, the fission-track ages are systematically less (similar to8%) than the Ar-Ar ages of the two Macusanite samples studied. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

New constraints on ages of glasses proposed as reference materials for fission-track dating

New analyses have been performed in order to enhance the data-set on the independent ages of four glasses that have been proposed as reference materials for fission-track dating. The results are as follows. Moldavite - repeated (40)Ar/(39)Ar age determinations on samples from deposits from Bohemia and Moravia yielded an average of 14.34 +/- 0.08 Ma. This datum agrees with other recent determinations and is significantly younger than the (40)Ar/(39)Ar age of 15.21 +/- 0.15 Ma determined in the early 1980s. Macusanite (Peru) -four K-Ar ages ranging from 5.44 +/- 0.06 to 5.72 +/- 0.12 Ma have been published previously. New (40)Ar/(39)Ar ages gave an average of 5.12 +/- 0.04 Ma. Plateau fission-track ages determined using the IRMM-540 certified glass and U and Th thin films for neutron fluence measurements agree better with these new (40)Ar/(39)Ar ages than the previously published ages. Roccastrada glass (Italy) - a new (40)Ar/(39)Ar age, 2.45 +/- 0.04 Ma, is consistent with previous determinations. The Quiron obsidian (Argentina) is a recently discovered glass that has been proposed as an additional reference material for its high spontaneous track density (around 100 000 cm(-2)). Defects that might produce spurious tracks are virtually absent. An independent (40)Ar/(39)Ar age of 8.77 +/- 0.09 Ma was determined and is recommended for this glass. We believe that these materials, which will be distributed upon request to fission-track groups, will be very useful for testing system calibrations and experimental procedures.