Spike timing dependent plasticity: a consequence of more fundamental learning rules.

Spike timing dependent plasticity (STDP) is a phenomenon in which the precise timing of spikes affects the sign and magnitude of changes in synaptic strength. STDP is often interpreted as the comprehensive learning rule for a synapse - the "first law" of synaptic plasticity. This interpretation is made explicit in theoretical models in which the total plasticity produced by complex spike patterns results from a superposition of the effects of all spike pairs. Although such models are appealing for their simplicity, they can fail dramatically. For example, the measured single-spike learning rule between hippocampal CA3 and CA1 pyramidal neurons does not predict the existence of long-term potentiation one of the best-known forms of synaptic plasticity. Layers of complexity have been added to the basic STDP model to repair predictive failures, but they have been outstripped by experimental data. We propose an alternate first law: neural activity triggers changes in key biochemical intermediates, which act as a more direct trigger of plasticity mechanisms. One particularly successful model uses intracellular calcium as the intermediate and can account for many observed properties of bidirectional plasticity. In this formulation, STDP is not itself the basis for explaining other forms of plasticity, but is instead a consequence of changes in the biochemical intermediate, calcium. Eventually a mechanism-based framework for learning rules should include other messengers, discrete change at individual synapses, spread of plasticity among neighboring synapses, and priming of hidden processes that change a synapse's susceptibility to future change. Mechanism-based models provide a rich framework for the computational representation of synaptic plasticity.

Reliability of operational data from pig herds and performance ratings by veterinarians and pig farmers collected during telephone interviews for the evaluation of a PCV2 piglet vaccination

BackgroundThe aim of the present study was to evaluate the feasibility of using a telephone survey in gaining an understanding of the possible herd and management factors influencing the performance (i.e. safety and efficacy) of a vaccine against porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) in a large number of herds and to estimate customers¿ satisfaction.ResultsDatasets from 227 pig herds that currently applied or have applied a PCV2 vaccine were analysed. Since 1-, 2- and 3-site production systems were surveyed, the herds were allocated in one of two subsets, where only applicable variables out of 180 were analysed. Group 1 was comprised of herds with sows, suckling pigs and nursery pigs, whereas herds in Group 2 in all cases kept fattening pigs. Overall 14 variables evaluating the subjective satisfaction with one particular PCV2 vaccine were comingled to an abstract dependent variable for further models, which was characterized by a binary outcome from a cluster analysis: good/excellent satisfaction (green cluster) and moderate satisfaction (red cluster). The other 166 variables comprised information about diagnostics, vaccination, housing, management, were considered as independent variables. In Group 1, herds using the vaccine due to recognised PCV2 related health problems (wasting, mortality or porcine dermatitis and nephropathy syndrome) had a 2.4-fold increased chance (1/OR) of belonging to the green cluster. In the final model for Group 1, the diagnosis of diseases other than PCV2, the reason for vaccine administration being other than PCV2-associated diseases and using a single injection of iron had significant influence on allocating into the green cluster (P¿<¿0.05). In Group 2, only unchanged time or delay of time of vaccination influenced the satisfaction (P¿<¿0.05).ConclusionThe methodology and statistical approach used in this study were feasible to scientifically assess ¿satisfaction¿, and to determine factors influencing farmers¿ and vets¿ opinion about the safety and efficacy of a new vaccine.

In search of the internal structure of the processes underlying interval timing in the sub-second and the second range: A confirmatory factor analysis approach

One of the earliest accounts of duration perception by Karl von Vierordt implied a common process underlying the timing of intervals in the sub-second and the second range. To date, there are two major explanatory approaches for the timing of brief intervals: the Common Timing Hypothesis and the Distinct Timing Hypothesis. While the common timing hypothesis also proceeds from a unitary timing process, the distinct timing hypothesis suggests two dissociable, independent mechanisms for the timing of intervals in the sub-second and the second range, respectively. In the present paper, we introduce confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to elucidate the internal structure of interval timing in the sub-second and the second range. Our results indicate that the assumption of two mechanisms underlying the processing of intervals in the second and the sub-second range might be more appropriate than the assumption of a unitary timing mechanism. In contrast to the basic assumption of the distinct timing hypothesis, however, these two timing mechanisms are closely associated with each other and share 77% of common variance. This finding suggests either a strong functional relationship between the two timing mechanisms or a hierarchically organized internal structure. Findings are discussed in the light of existing psychophysical and neurophysiological data.

Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years

Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.

Efficacy and effectiveness of an rVSV-vectored vaccine expressing Ebola surface glycoprotein: interim results from the Guinea ring vaccination cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND A recombinant, replication-competent vesicular stomatitis virus-based vaccine expressing a surface glycoprotein of Zaire Ebolavirus (rVSV-ZEBOV) is a promising Ebola vaccine candidate. We report the results of an interim analysis of a trial of rVSV-ZEBOV in Guinea, west Africa. METHODS For this open-label, cluster-randomised ring vaccination trial, suspected cases of Ebola virus disease in Basse-Guinée (Guinea, west Africa) were independently ascertained by Ebola response teams as part of a national surveillance system. After laboratory confirmation of a new case, clusters of all contacts and contacts of contacts were defined and randomly allocated 1:1 to immediate vaccination or delayed (21 days later) vaccination with rVSV-ZEBOV (one dose of 2 × 10(7) plaque-forming units, administered intramuscularly in the deltoid muscle). Adults (age ≥18 years) who were not pregnant or breastfeeding were eligible for vaccination. Block randomisation was used, with randomly varying blocks, stratified by location (urban vs rural) and size of rings (≤20 vs >20 individuals). The study is open label and masking of participants and field teams to the time of vaccination is not possible, but Ebola response teams and laboratory workers were unaware of allocation to immediate or delayed vaccination. Taking into account the incubation period of the virus of about 10 days, the prespecified primary outcome was laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus disease with onset of symptoms at least 10 days after randomisation. The primary analysis was per protocol and compared the incidence of Ebola virus disease in eligible and vaccinated individuals in immediate vaccination clusters with the incidence in eligible individuals in delayed vaccination clusters. This trial is registered with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, number PACTR201503001057193. FINDINGS Between April 1, 2015, and July 20, 2015, 90 clusters, with a total population of 7651 people were included in the planned interim analysis. 48 of these clusters (4123 people) were randomly assigned to immediate vaccination with rVSV-ZEBOV, and 42 clusters (3528 people) were randomly assigned to delayed vaccination with rVSV-ZEBOV. In the immediate vaccination group, there were no cases of Ebola virus disease with symptom onset at least 10 days after randomisation, whereas in the delayed vaccination group there were 16 cases of Ebola virus disease from seven clusters, showing a vaccine efficacy of 100% (95% CI 74·7-100·0; p=0·0036). No new cases of Ebola virus disease were diagnosed in vaccinees from the immediate or delayed groups from 6 days post-vaccination. At the cluster level, with the inclusion of all eligible adults, vaccine effectiveness was 75·1% (95% CI -7·1 to 94·2; p=0·1791), and 76·3% (95% CI -15·5 to 95·1; p=0·3351) with the inclusion of everyone (eligible or not eligible for vaccination). 43 serious adverse events were reported; one serious adverse event was judged to be causally related to vaccination (a febrile episode in a vaccinated participant, which resolved without sequelae). Assessment of serious adverse events is ongoing. INTERPRETATION The results of this interim analysis indicate that rVSV-ZEBOV might be highly efficacious and safe in preventing Ebola virus disease, and is most likely effective at the population level when delivered during an Ebola virus disease outbreak via a ring vaccination strategy. FUNDING WHO, with support from the Wellcome Trust (UK); Médecins Sans Frontières; the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs through the Research Council of Norway; and the Canadian Government through the Public Health Agency of Canada, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, International Development Research Centre, and Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development.

DNA vaccination against the novel tumor antigen, MUC18, for the therapy of metastatic melanoma

Melanoma patients with metastases have a very low survival rate and limited treatment options. Therefore, the targeting of melanoma cells when they begin to invade and metastasize would be beneficial. A specific adhesion molecule that is upregulated at the vertical growth phase is the melanoma cell adhesion molecule (MCAM/MUC18). MUC18 is expressed in late primary and metastatic melanoma with little or no expression on normal melanocytes. MUC18 has been demonstrated to have a role in the progression and metastasis of human melanoma. We utilized the alphavirus-based DNA plasmid, SINCp, encoding full length human MUC18 for vaccination against B16F10 murine melanoma cells expressing human MUC18. The alphavirus-based DNA plasmid leads to the expression of large quantities of heterologous protein as well as danger signals due to dsRNA intermediates produced during viral replication. In a preventative primary tumor model and an experimental tumor model, mice vaccinated against human MUC18 had decreased tumor incidence and reduced lung metastases when challenged with B16F10 murine melanoma cells expressing human MUC18. In a therapeutic tumor model, vaccination against human MUC18 reduced the tumor burden in mice with pre-existing lung metastases but did not have a significant effect on therapeutic vaccination in a primary tumor model. We next cloned murine MUC18 into SINCp for use in determining the efficacy of vaccination against murine MUC18 in a syngeneic animal model. Mice were vaccinated and challenged in a primary tumor and experimental metastasis model. In both models, vaccination significantly reduced tumor incidence and lung metastases. Humoral and cell-mediated responses were then determined. Flow cytometry and immunohistochemistry showed that specific antibodies were developed from vaccination against both human and murine MUC18. IgG2a antibody isotype was also developed indicating a Th1 type response. ELISPOT results showed that mice vaccinated against human MUC18 created a specific T cell response to targets expressing human MUC18. Mice vaccinated against murine MUC18 raised specific effector cells against target cells expressing murine MUC18 in a cell killing assay. These results indicate that vaccination against MUC18 developed specific immune responses against MUC18 and were effective in controlling tumor growth in melanoma expressing MUC18. ^

A retrospective cohort study of the duration of hepatitis B vaccine immunity and associated factors in pediatric dialysis patients

Dialysis patients are at high risk for hepatitis B infection, which is a serious but preventable disease. Prevention strategies include the administration of the hepatitis B vaccine. Dialysis patients have been noted to have a poor immune response to the vaccine and lose immunity more rapidly. The long term immunogenicity of the hepatitis B vaccine has not been well defined in pediatric dialysis patients especially if administered during infancy as a routine childhood immunization.^ Purpose. The aim of this study was to determine the median duration of hepatitis B immunity and to study the effect of vaccination timing and other cofactors on the duration of hepatitis B immunity in pediatric dialysis patients.^ Methods. Duration of hepatitis B immunity was determined by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Comparison of stratified survival analysis was performed using log-rank analysis. Multivariate analysis by Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios for the effect of timing of vaccine administration and other covariates on the duration of hepatitis B immunity.^ Results. 193 patients (163 incident patients) had complete data available for analysis. Mean age was 11.2±5.8 years and mean ESRD duration was 59.3±97.8 months. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the total median overall duration of immunity (since the time of the primary vaccine series) was 112.7 months (95% CI: 96.6, 124.4), whereas the median overall duration of immunity for incident patients was 106.3 months (95% CI: 93.93, 124.44). Incident patients had a median dialysis duration of hepatitis B immunity equal to 37.1 months (95% CI: 24.16, 72.26). Multivariate adjusted analysis showed that there was a significant difference between patients based on the timing of hepatitis B vaccination administration (p<0.001). Patients immunized after the start of dialysis had a hazard ratio of 6.13 (2.87, 13.08) for loss of hepatitis B immunity compared to patients immunized as infants (p<0.001).^ Conclusion. This study confirms that patients immunized after dialysis onset have an overall shorter duration of hepatitis B immunity as measured by hepatitis B antibody titers and after the start of dialysis, protective antibody titer levels in pediatric dialysis patients wane rapidly compared to healthy children.^

Process and outcome evaluation of the hepatitis B perinatal vaccination program in Houston, Texas, 1991--1993

A retrospective cohort study was designed to evaluate the compliance of vaccination dose schedules and vaccination effectiveness at 12 months of age among a total of 226 high-risk infants born to HBsAg-positive pregnant women who participated in the HBV Perinatal Vaccination Program in Houston, Texas, 1991-1993.^ The seroprevalence of HBsAg-positivity was 0.5% among pregnant women who attended prenatal clinics in Houston, Texas, 1991-1993. The Asian women had the highest seroprevalence rate (5.9%), followed by black (1.9%), white (0.7%), and Hispanic women (0.3%). The seroprevalence of HBsAg increased with age (p =.02); the highest seroprevalence rate found among the $>$40 group (5.4%), followed by the 20-40 age group, and the $<$20 age. A steady increase was observed in the number of infants, from 45 in 1991, to 103 in 1993. The majority of these infants were black (58.0%), followed by Hispanic (28.8%), Asian (8.4%), and white infants (4.0%). Significant increases were observed from 1991 to 1993 in the number of infants who initiated vaccination (86.7% to 98.1%, p =.02) and in those infants who were post-tested at 12 months of age (24.4% to 44.7%, p =.04). During the same period an increase was also observed in the number of infants who completed the vaccination dose schedules (62.2% to 72.8%, p =.37). The compliance rates were not statistically significant regarding gender, race or ethnicity, health service area, medical referral source, and residential geographic areas. About 56.0% of the reasons cited for non-compliance among the 144 infants who neither completed the vaccination dose schedules nor received the 12-month post-test were "moved," and "no response/not at home." A total of 82 infants completed the vaccination dose schedules and were post-tested at 12 months of age for anti-HBs-positivity, and 96.3% of these infants seroconverted. A race-specific statistically significant seroconversion difference was found among infants who received all vaccination doses and were post-tested at 12 months of age (100% for the black and the white, 96.3% for the Hispanic, and 80.0% for the Asians infants, p =.05).^ From a public health perspective, the HBV Perinatal Vaccination Program improved during its first three years (1991-1993). It was effective in preventing perinatal HBV infection in almost 97.0% of infants who were vaccinated and post-tested. To increase the efficiency and efficacy of the program, the following recommendations are proposed: (1) Increase the vaccination compliance rate by educating and improving the tracking, communication and coordination channels with those individuals involved in the process and by increasing staff resources. (2) Reduce the post-test vaccination non-compliance by post-testing infants simultaneously with third vaccination dose at 6 months of age, and only post-test those infants who are anti-HBs-negative at 9-12 months of age. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

2005 ACIP recommendations effect on newborn hepatitis B vaccination rates and the factors affecting the successful implementation of the recommendations in the US

Background. Hepatitis B virus infection is one of major causes of acute and chronic hepatitis, cirrhosis of the liver, and primary hepatocellular carcinoma. Hepatitis B and its long term consequences are major health problems in the United States. Hepatitis B virus can be vertically transmitted from mother to infant during birth. Hepatitis B vaccination at birth is the most effective measure to prevent the newborn from HBV infection and its consequences, and is part of any robust perinatal hepatitis B prevention program following ACIP recommendations. Universal vaccination of the new born will prevent HBV infection during early childhood and, assuming that children receive the three dosages of the vaccine, it will also prevent adolescent and adult infections. Hepatitis B vaccination is now recommended as part of a comprehensive strategy to eliminate HBV transmission in the United States. ^ Objective. (1)To assess if the hepatitis B vaccination rates of newborn babies have improved after the 2005 ACIP recommendations. (2) To identify factors that affects the implementation of ACIP recommendation for hepatitis B vaccination in newborn babies. These factors will encourage ongoing improvement by identifying successful efforts and pinpointing areas that fall short and need attention. Additional focus areas may be identified to accelerate progress in eliminating perinatal HBV transmission.^ Methods. This review includes information from all pertinent articles, reviews, National immunization survey (NIS) surveys, reports, peer reviewed literature and web sources that were published after 1991.The key words to be used for selecting the articles are: "Perinatal Hepatitis B Prevention program", "Universal Hepatitis B vaccination of newborn babies", "ACIP Recommendations." The data gathered will be supplemented with an analysis of vaccination rates using the National Immunization Survey (NIS) birth dose coverage data.^ Results. The data collected in the NIS of 2009 reveals that the national coverage for birth dose of HepB increased to 60.8% from 50.1% in 2006. The largest increase observed for the birth dose in the past 5 years is from 2008 which increased from 55.3 % to 60.8% in 2009. By state, coverage ranged from 22.8% in Vermont to 80.7% in Michigan. %. Overall, in 2009 the estimated vaccination rates are in higher ranges for most states compared to the estimated vaccination rates in 2006. States vary widely in hepatitis B vaccination rates and in their compliance with the 2005 ACIP recommendation. There are many factors at various stages that might affect the successful implementation of the new ACIP recommendation as revealed in literature review. ^ Conclusions. HBV perinatal transmission can be eliminated, but it requires identifying the gaps and measures taken to increase the current vaccination coverage, ensuring timely administration of post exposure immunoprophylaxis and continued evaluations of the impact of immunization recommendations.^

Influenza vaccination as a primary or secondary prevention for cardiovascular diseases: A systematic review of the literature

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. CVD mainly comprise of coronary heart disease and stroke and were ranked first and fourth respectively amongst leading causes of death in the United States. Influenza (flu) causes annual outbreaks and pandemics and is increasingly recognized as an important trigger for acute coronary syndromes and stroke. Influenza vaccination is an inexpensive and effective strategy for prevention of influenza related complications in high risk individuals. Though it is recommended for all CVD patients, Influenza vaccine is still used at suboptimal levels in these patients owing to prevailing controversy related to its effectiveness in preventing CVD. This review was undertaken to critically assess the effectiveness of influenza vaccination as a primary or secondary prevention method for CVD. ^ Methods: A systematic review was conducted using electronic databases OVID MEDLINE, PUBMED (National Library of Medicine), EMBASE, GOOGLE SCHOLAR and TRIP (Turning Research into Practice). The study search was limited to peer-reviewed articles published in English language from January 1970 through May 2012. The case control studies, cohort studies and randomized controlled trials related to influenza vaccination and CVD, with data on at least one of the outcomes were identified. In the review, only population-based epidemiologic studies in all ethnic groups and of either sex and with age limitation of 30 yrs or above, with clinical CVD outcomes of interest were included. ^ Results: Of the 16 studies (8 case control studies, 6 cohort studies and 2 randomized controlled trials) that met the inclusion criteria, 14 studies reported that there was a significant benefit in u influenza vaccination as primary or secondary prevention method for preventing new cardiovascular events. In contrary to the above findings, two studies mentioned that there was no significant benefit of vaccination in CVD prevention. ^ Conclusion: The available body of evidence in the review elucidates that vaccination against influenza is associated with reduction in the risk of new CVD events, hospitalization for coronary heart disease and stroke and as well as the risk of death. The study findings disclose that the influenza vaccination is very effective in CVD prevention and should be encouraged for the high risk population. However, larger and more future studies like randomized control trials are needed to further evaluate and confirm these findings. ^

Application of the general linear model to assess the effect of missing data on bone marrow mononuclear cell therapy with infusion timing and follow-up MRI

With most clinical trials, missing data presents a statistical problem in evaluating a treatment's efficacy. There are many methods commonly used to assess missing data; however, these methods leave room for bias to enter the study. This thesis was a secondary analysis on data taken from TIME, a phase 2 randomized clinical trial conducted to evaluate the safety and effect of the administration timing of bone marrow mononuclear cells (BMMNC) for subjects with acute myocardial infarction (AMI).^ We evaluated the effect of missing data by comparing the variance inflation factor (VIF) of the effect of therapy between all subjects and only subjects with complete data. Through the general linear model, an unbiased solution was made for the VIF of the treatment's efficacy using the weighted least squares method to incorporate missing data. Two groups were identified from the TIME data: 1) all subjects and 2) subjects with complete data (baseline and follow-up measurements). After the general solution was found for the VIF, it was migrated Excel 2010 to evaluate data from TIME. The resulting numerical value from the two groups was compared to assess the effect of missing data.^ The VIF values from the TIME study were considerably less in the group with missing data. By design, we varied the correlation factor in order to evaluate the VIFs of both groups. As the correlation factor increased, the VIF values increased at a faster rate in the group with only complete data. Furthermore, while varying the correlation factor, the number of subjects with missing data was also varied to see how missing data affects the VIF. When subjects with only baseline data was increased, we saw a significant rate increase in VIF values in the group with only complete data while the group with missing data saw a steady and consistent increase in the VIF. The same was seen when we varied the group with follow-up only data. This essentially showed that the VIFs steadily increased when missing data is not ignored. When missing data is ignored as with our comparison group, the VIF values sharply increase as correlation increases.^

Effectiveness of Foliar Fungicides by Timing on Hybrid Corn

Fungicide use on hybrid corn has increased considerably in the past four growing seasons primarily due to reports of increased yields, even in the absence of disease and higher corn prices. A number of fungicides are registered for use on corn. The objectives of this project were to 1) assess the effect of timing of application of fungicides on standability, 2) evaluate the yield response of hybrid corn to foliar fungicide application, and 3) to discern differences, if any, between fungicide products.

Effectiveness of Foliar Fungicides by Timing on Hybrid Corn in Iowa

Fungicide use on hybrid corn has increased considerably in the past three growing seasons primarily due to reports of increased yields, even in the absence of disease and higher corn prices. A number of fungicides are registered for use on corn. The objectives of this project were to 1) evaluate the yield response of hybrid corn to foliar fungicide application, 2) compare the yield response of various products and timing of application, and 3) to assess the effect of fungicide application on stalk rot development.

Reconstructing the Timing and Dispersion Routes of HIV-1 Subtype B Epidemics in The Caribbean and Central America: A Phylogenetic Story.

The Caribbean and Central America are among the regions with highest HIV-1B prevalence worldwide. Despite of this high virus burden, little is known about the timing and the migration patterns of HIV-1B in these regions. Migration is one of the major processes shaping the genetic structure of virus populations. Thus, reconstruction of epidemiological network may contribute to understand HIV-1B evolution and reduce virus prevalence. We have investigated the spatio-temporal dynamics of the HIV-1B epidemic in The Caribbean and Central America using 1,610 HIV-1B partial pol sequences from 13 Caribbean and 5 Central American countries. Timing of HIV-1B introduction and virus evolutionary rates, as well as the spatial genetic structure of the HIV-1B populations and the virus migration patterns were inferred. Results revealed that in The Caribbean and Central America most of the HIV-1B variability was generated since the 80 s. At odds with previous data suggesting that Haiti was the origin of the epidemic in The Caribbean, our reconstruction indicated that the virus could have been disseminated from Puerto Rico and Antigua. These two countries connected two distinguishable migration areas corresponding to the (mainly Spanish-colonized) Easter and (mainly British-colonized) Western islands, which indicates that virus migration patterns are determined by geographical barriers and by the movement of human populations among culturally related countries. Similar factors shaped the migration of HIV-1B in Central America. The HIV-1B population was significantly structured according to the country of origin, and the genetic diversity in each country was associated with the virus prevalence in both regions, which suggests that virus populations evolve mainly through genetic drift. Thus, our work contributes to the understanding of HIV-1B evolution and dispersion pattern in the Americas, and its relationship with the geography of the area and the movements of human populations.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccination programme in preventing hospital admissions, Valencia, 2014/15 early results

Preliminary results for the 2014/15 season indicate low to null effect of vaccination against influenza A(H3N2)-related disease. As of week 5 2015, there have been 1,136 hospital admissions, 210 were due to influenza and 98% of subtype A strains were H3. Adjusted influenza vaccine effectiveness was 33% (range: 6–53%) overall and 40% (range: 13% to 59%) in those 65 years and older. Vaccination reduced by 44% (28–68%) the probability of admission with influenza.