Real-time forecasting of inflation and output growth with autoregressive models in the presence of data revisions

We examine how the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on ‘lightly revised’ data instead of using data from the latest-available vintage. The benefits of estimating autoregressive models on lightly revised data are related to the nature of the data revision process and the underlying process for the true values. Empirically, we find improvements in root mean square forecasting error of 2–4% when forecasting output growth and inflation with univariate models, and of 8% with multivariate models. We show that multiple-vintage models, which explicitly model data revisions, require large estimation samples to deliver competitive forecasts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Automated determination of auroral breakup during the substorm expansion phase using all sky imager data

This technique paper describes a novel method for quantitatively and routinely identifying auroral breakup following substorm onset using the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions During Substorms (THEMIS) all-sky imagers (ASIs). Substorm onset is characterised by a brightening of the aurora that is followed by auroral poleward expansion and auroral breakup. This breakup can be identified by a sharp increase in the auroral intensity i(t) and the time derivative of auroral intensity i'(t). Utilising both i(t) and i'(t) we have developed an algorithm for identifying the time interval and spatial location of auroral breakup during the substorm expansion phase within the field of view of ASI data based solely on quantifiable characteristics of the optical auroral emissions. We compare the time interval determined by the algorithm to independently identified auroral onset times from three previously published studies. In each case the time interval determined by the algorithm is within error of the onset independently identified by the prior studies. We further show the utility of the algorithm by comparing the breakup intervals determined using the automated algorithm to an independent list of substorm onset times. We demonstrate that up to 50% of the breakup intervals characterised by the algorithm are within the uncertainty of the times identified in the independent list. The quantitative description and routine identification of an interval of auroral brightening during the substorm expansion phase provides a foundation for unbiased statistical analysis of the aurora to probe the physics of the auroral substorm as a new scientific tool for aiding the identification of the processes leading to auroral substorm onset.

Reduced-order modeling of light transport in tissue for real-time monitoring of brain hemodynamics using diffuse optical tomography

This paper proposes a new reconstruction method for diffuse optical tomography using reduced-order models of light transport in tissue. The models, which directly map optical tissue parameters to optical flux measurements at the detector locations, are derived based on data generated by numerical simulation of a reference model. The reconstruction algorithm based on the reduced-order models is a few orders of magnitude faster than the one based on a finite element approximation on a fine mesh incorporating a priori anatomical information acquired by magnetic resonance imaging. We demonstrate the accuracy and speed of the approach using a phantom experiment and through numerical simulation of brain activation in a rat's head. The applicability of the approach for real-time monitoring of brain hemodynamics is demonstrated through a hypercapnic experiment. We show that our results agree with the expected physiological changes and with results of a similar experimental study. However, by using our approach, a three-dimensional tomographic reconstruction can be performed in ∼3  s per time point instead of the 1 to 2 h it takes when using the conventional finite element modeling approach

The real-time optimisation of DNO owned storage devices on the LV network for peak reduction

Energy storage is a potential alternative to conventional network reinforcementof the low voltage (LV) distribution network to ensure the grid’s infrastructure remainswithin its operating constraints. This paper presents a study on the control of such storagedevices, owned by distribution network operators. A deterministic model predictive control (MPC) controller and a stochastic receding horizon controller (SRHC) are presented, wherethe objective is to achieve the greatest peak reduction in demand, for a given storagedevice specification, taking into account the high level of uncertainty in the prediction of LV demand. The algorithms presented in this paper are compared to a standard set-pointcontroller and bench marked against a control algorithm with a perfect forecast. A specificcase study, using storage on the LV network, is presented, and the results of each algorithmare compared. A comprehensive analysis is then carried out simulating a large number of LV networks of varying numbers of households. The results show that the performance of each algorithm is dependent on the number of aggregated households. However, on a typical aggregation, the novel SRHC algorithm presented in this paper is shown to outperform each of the comparable storage control techniques.

The impact of number mismatch and passives on the real-time processing of relative clauses

Language processing plays a crucial role in language development, providing the ability to assign structural representations to input strings (e.g., Fodor, 1998). In this paper we aim at contributing to the study of children's processing routines, examining the operations underlying the auditory processing of relative clauses in children compared to adults. English-speaking children (6–8;11) and adults participated in the study, which employed a self-paced listening task with a final comprehension question. The aim was to determine (i) the role of number agreement in object relative clauses in which the subject and object NPs differ in terms of number properties, and (ii) the role of verb morphology (active vs. passive) in subject relative clauses. Even though children's off-line accuracy was not always comparable to that of adults, analyses of reaction times results support the view that children have the same structural processing reflexes observed in adults.

Effective separation of Am(III) and Eu(III) from HNO3 Q1 Q2 solutions using CyMe4-BTPhen-functionalized silica-coated magnetic nanoparticles

It has been shown that CyMe4-BTPhen-functionalized silica-coated maghemite (c-Fe2O3) magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) are capable of quantitative separation of Am(III) from Eu(III) from HNO3 solutions. These MNPs also show a small but significant selectivity for Am(III) over Cm(III) with a separation factor of around 2 in 4 M HNO3. The water molecule in the cavity of the BTPhen may also play an important part in the selectivity.

Effective separation of Am(III) and Eu(III) from HNO3 solutions using CyMe4-BTPhen-functionalized silica-coated magnetic nanoparticles

It has been shown that CyMe4-BTPhen-functionalized silica-coated maghemite (c-Fe2O3) magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) are capable of quantitative separation of Am(III) from Eu(III) from HNO3 solutions. These MNPs also show a small but significant selectivity for Am(III) over Cm(III) with a separation factor of around 2 in 4 M HNO3. The water molecule in the cavity of the BTPhen may also play an important part in the selectivity.

Effective separation of the actinides Am(III) and Cm(III) by electronic modulation of bis-(1,2,4-triazin-3-yl)phenanthrolines

It has been shown that modification of the phenanthroline backbone of CyMe4-BTPhen leads to subtle electronic modulation, permitting differential ligation of Am(III) and Cm(III) resulting in separation factors up to 7.

Development of speech fluency over a short period of time: effects of pedagogic intervention

This study investigates the effects of a short-term pedagogic intervention on the development of L2 fluency among learners studying English for Academic purposes (EAP) at a university in the UK. It also examines the interaction between the development of fluency, and complexity and accuracy. Through a pre-test, post-test design, data were collected over a period of four weeks from learners performing monologic tasks. While the Control Group (CG) focused on developing general speaking and listening skills, the Experimental Group (EG) received awareness-raising activities and fluency strategy training in addition to general speaking and listening practice i.e following the syllabus. The data, coded in terms of a range of measures of fluency, accuracy and complexity, were subjected to repeated measures MANOVA, t-tests and correlations. The results indicate that after the intervention, while some fluency gains were achieved by the CG, the EG produced statistically more fluent language demonstrating a faster speech and articulation rate, longer runs and higher phonation time ratios. The significant correlations obtained between measures of accuracy and learners’ pauses in the CG suggest that pausing opportunities may have been linked to accuracy. The findings of the study have significant implications for L2 pedagogy, highlighting the effective impact of instruction on the development of fluency.

Direct observations of the full Dungey convection cycle in the polar ionosphere for southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions

Tracking the formation and full evolution of polar cap ionization patches in the polar ionosphere, we directly observe the full Dungey convection cycle for southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions. This enables us to study how the Dungey cycle influences the patches’ evolution. The patches were initially segmented from the dayside storm enhanced density plume at the equatorward edge of the cusp, by the expansion and contraction of the polar cap boundary due to pulsed dayside magnetopause reconnection, as indicated by in situ Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms(THEMIS) observations. Convection led to the patches entering the polar cap and being transported antisunward, while being continuously monitored by the globally distributed arrays of GPS receivers and Super Dual Auroral Radar Network radars. Changes in convection over time resulted in the patches following a range of trajectories, each of which differed somewhat from the classical twin-cell convection streamlines. Pulsed nightside reconnection, occurring as part of the magnetospheric substorm cycle, modulated the exit of the patches from the polar cap, as confirmed by coordinated observations of the magnetometer at Tromsø and European Incoherent Scatter Tromsø UHF radar. After exiting the polar cap, the patches broke up into a number of plasma blobs and returned sunward in the auroral return flow of the dawn and/or dusk convection cell. The full circulation time was about 3 h.

Representing the Arctic in global surface temperature time series of recent climate change

The Arctic is an important region in the study of climate change, but monitoring surface temperatures in this region is challenging, particularly in areas covered by sea ice. Here in situ, satellite and reanalysis data were utilised to investigate whether global warming over recent decades could be better estimated by changing the way the Arctic is treated in calculating global mean temperature. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice were investigated using reanalysis data as a testbed. Techniques which interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than non-interpolating techniques. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in anomaly estimates. Similar accuracies were found for anomalies estimated from in situ meteorological station SAT records using a kriging technique. Whether additional data sources, which are not currently utilised in temperature anomaly datasets, would improve estimates of Arctic surface air temperature anomalies was investigated within the reanalysis testbed and using in situ data. For the reanalysis study, the additional input anomalies were reanalysis data sampled at certain supplementary data source locations over Arctic land and sea ice areas. For the in situ data study, the additional input anomalies over sea ice were surface temperature anomalies derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite instruments. The use of additional data sources, particularly those located in the Arctic Ocean over sea ice or on islands in sparsely observed regions, can lead to substantial improvements in the accuracy of estimated anomalies. Decreases in Root Mean Square Error can be up to 0.2K for Arctic-average anomalies and more than 1K for spatially resolved anomalies. Further improvements in accuracy may be accomplished through the use of other data sources.

Time is of the essence: a selective review of the fall and rise of brief therapy research

For compelling reasons of equity and the advance of public health, brief psychotherapy has become the dominant format in both practice and research. One consequence of this is the apparent decline of a distinct stream of brief therapy research. However, much of the agenda formerly identified with that research stream is of increasing importance to the field. Time is indeed of the essence in current psychotherapy research. For example, factors conducive to the time efficiency of brief psychodynamic therapy have been described recently. The important question ‘How much therapy is enough?’ has been addressed by studies inspired by the dose-response analysis of Howard and colleagues. The value of ultra-brief interventions has been examined. These issues are considered in a selective review, drawing in particular on the work of the Sheffield/Leeds psychotherapy of depression research group. This research treats the number of treatment sessions as an independent variable, thereby providing a causal analysis of the dose-response relationship over a range from two to 16 sessions, illuminated by a comparative analysis of change processes in treatments of different durations. Its results enable some specification of the extent and nature of incremental benefit derived from additional sessions in the psychotherapy of depression.

Rapid selective separation of americium/curium from simulated nuclear forensic matrices using triazine ligands

In analysis of complex nuclear forensic samples containing lanthanides, actinides and matrix elements, rapid selective extraction of Am/Cm for quantification is challenging, in particular due the difficult separation of Am/Cm from lanthanides. Here we present a separation process for Am/Cm(III) which is achieved using a combination of AG1-X8 chromatography followed by Am/Cm extraction with a triazine ligand. The ligands tested in our process were CyMe4-BTPhen, CyMe4- BTBP, CA-BTP and CA-BTPhen. Our process allows for purification and quantification of Am and Cm (recoveries 80%–100%) and other major actinides in < 2d without the use of multiple columns or thiocyanate. The process is unaffected by high level Ca(II)/Fe(III)/Al(III) (10mg mL−1) and thus requires little pre-treatment of samples.

Separation of natural colorants from the fermented broth of filamentous fungi using colloidal gas aphrons

There is a worldwide interest in the development of processes for producing colorants from natural sources. Microorganisms provide an alternative source of natural colorants produced by cultivation technology and extracted from the fermented broth. The aim of the present work was to study the recovery of red colorants from the fermented broth of Talaromyces amestolkiae using the technique of colloidal gas aphrons (CGA) comprising surfactant-stabilized microbubbles. Preliminary experiments were performed to evaluate the red colorants’ solubility in different organic solvents, octanol/water partitioning, and their stability in surfactant solutions, namely hexadecyl trimethylammonium bromide (CTAB), sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS), and polyoxyethylenesorbitan monolaurate (Tween 20), which are cationic, anionic and nonionic surfactants, respectively. The first recovery experiments were carried out using CGA generated by these surfactants at different volumetric ratios (VR, 3–18). Subsequently, two different approaches to generate CGA were investigated at VR values of 6 and 12: the first involved the use of CTAB at pH 6.9–10.0, and the second involved the use of Tween 20 using red colorants partially dissolved in ethanol and Tween 20. The characterization results showed that red colorants have a hydrophilic nature. The highest recoveries were obtained with Tween 20 (78%) and CTAB (70%). These results demonstrated that the recovery of the colorants was driven by both electrostatic and hydrophobic interactions. The VR was found to be an important operating parameter and at VR 12 with CTAB (at pH 9) maximum recovery, partitioning coefficient (K = 5.39) and selectivity in relation to protein and sugar (SP = 3.75 and SS = 7.20 respectively) were achieved. Furthermore, with Tween 20, the separation was driven mainly by hydrophobic interactions. Overall CGA show promise for the recovery of red colorants from a fermented broth. Although better results were obtained with CTAB than with Tween 20 the latter may be more suitable for some application due to its lower toxicity.