Estimadores bayesianos de la fiabilidad con muestreo censurado

El estudio de la fiabilidad de componentes y sistemas tiene gran importancia en diversos campos de la ingenieria, y muy concretamente en el de la informatica. Al analizar la duracion de los elementos de la muestra hay que tener en cuenta los elementos que no fallan en el tiempo que dure el experimento, o bien los que fallen por causas distintas a la que es objeto de estudio. Por ello surgen nuevos tipos de muestreo que contemplan estos casos. El mas general de ellos, el muestreo censurado, es el que consideramos en nuestro trabajo. En este muestreo tanto el tiempo hasta que falla el componente como el tiempo de censura son variables aleatorias. Con la hipotesis de que ambos tiempos se distribuyen exponencialmente, el profesor Hurt estudio el comportamiento asintotico del estimador de maxima verosimilitud de la funcion de fiabilidad. En principio parece interesante utilizar metodos Bayesianos en el estudio de la fiabilidad porque incorporan al analisis la informacion a priori de la que se dispone normalmente en problemas reales. Por ello hemos considerado dos estimadores Bayesianos de la fiabilidad de una distribucion exponencial que son la media y la moda de la distribucion a posteriori. Hemos calculado la expansion asint6tica de la media, varianza y error cuadratico medio de ambos estimadores cuando la distribuci6n de censura es exponencial. Hemos obtenido tambien la distribucion asintotica de los estimadores para el caso m3s general de que la distribucion de censura sea de Weibull. Dos tipos de intervalos de confianza para muestras grandes se han propuesto para cada estimador. Los resultados se han comparado con los del estimador de maxima verosimilitud, y con los de dos estimadores no parametricos: limite producto y Bayesiano, resultando un comportamiento superior por parte de uno de nuestros estimadores. Finalmente nemos comprobado mediante simulacion que nuestros estimadores son robustos frente a la supuesta distribuci6n de censura, y que uno de los intervalos de confianza propuestos es valido con muestras pequenas. Este estudio ha servido tambien para confirmar el mejor comportamiento de uno de nuestros estimadores. SETTING OUT AND SUMMARY OF THE THESIS When we study the lifetime of components it's necessary to take into account the elements that don't fail during the experiment, or those that fail by reasons which are desirable to exclude from consideration. The model of random censorship is very usefull for analysing these data. In this model the time to failure and the time censor are random variables. We obtain two Bayes estimators of the reliability function of an exponential distribution based on randomly censored data. We have calculated the asymptotic expansion of the mean, variance and mean square error of both estimators, when the censor's distribution is exponential. We have obtained also the asymptotic distribution of the estimators for the more general case of censor's Weibull distribution. Two large-sample confidence bands have been proposed for each estimator. The results have been compared with those of the maximum likelihood estimator, and with those of two non parametric estimators: Product-limit and Bayesian. One of our estimators has the best behaviour. Finally we have shown by simulation, that our estimators are robust against the assumed censor's distribution, and that one of our intervals does well in small sample situation.

Bloche-Maxwell treatment of amplification of high harmonic seed in soft x-ray laser amplifiers in both direct and chirped amplifications

Seeding plasma-based softx-raylaser (SXRL) demonstrated diffraction-limited, fully coherent in space and in time beam but with energy not exceeding 1 μJ per pulse. Quasi-steady-state (QSS) plasmas demonstrated to be able to store high amount of energy and then amplify incoherent SXRL up to several mJ. Using 1D time-dependant Bloch–Maxwell model including amplification of noise, we demonstrated that femtosecond HHG cannot be efficiently amplified in QSS plasmas. However, using Chirped Pulse Amplification concept on HHG seed allows to extract most of the stored energy, reaching up to 5 mJ in fully coherent pulses that can be compressed down to 130 fs.

La crítica poética como instrumento del proyecto de arquitectura

Vivimos en un tiempo de referencias múltiples, de inquietudes en todos los ámbitos -también en el de la arquitectura-, en el que se trata de superar el peso de la historia; donde los apegos sobran y lo que interesa son las posibilidades que nos depara el presente activo. El papel de la crítica de la arquitectura se cuestiona a diario. Los nuevos media son contenedores en actualización continua y el texto ha sido sustituido inevitablemente por la imagen y la acción. En este contexto, la tesis cuestiona por que el nuevo sentido de la crítica sea el de operador que acompaña al proceso del proyecto arquitectónico. Desde el proyecto, sobre el proyecto, para el proyecto, en el proyecto, hacia el proyecto, con el proyecto. Acometiendo la acción crítica desde la complejidad de lo arquitectónico, sobre la diversidad, para la pluralidad, en lo colectivo, hacia la simultaneidad en la síntesis. Para ello, la tesis se apoya en la noción de poética –como complejidad y síntesis interna- y en cinco sistemas arquitectónicos cuya interacción no puede ignorarse –campo, programa, materia, geometría y morfología- para renovar y actualizar la usabilidad de un método crítico –el método Mirregan-Todorov- que ha obtenido reconocidos resultados; pero cuya pesada estructura limita en gran medida su campo de acción y operativa. En este sentido, no se trata ni de una tesis meramente analítica, ni de determinar unos paradigmas arquitectónicos para este siglo. Esta investigación reformula el papel de la crítica de la arquitectura hoy, y parte del orden –como autoorganización- abierto de la crítica poética para proponer una línea de trabajo sobre la interacción de sistemas arquitectónicos de una manera sinérgica y a disposición del proceso de proyecto. Disposición que lleva, como proposición final, a plantear esta actitud como instrumento docente y pedagógico de la asignatura de proyectos arquitectónicos, ya que posibilita la obtención de una serie de cartografías abiertas reflejo de los múltiples agentes y factores de influencia del presente que propician una visión compleja, pero abordable, del proyecto como totalidad. ABSTRACT We live in a time of multiple references, of concerns in all areas -also in architecture-, which tries to overcome the burden of history. A time where the attachments remain and what matters are the possibilities active present lies. The role of criticism of architecture is questioned daily. New media are continuously updated containers, and the text has been inevitably replaced by the image and the action. In this context, the thesis questions that the new sense of criticism is to be the operator that accompanies the architectural design process. From the project, on the project, for the project, in the project, to the project, with the project. An operator which undertakes the critical work from the architectural complexity, on the diversity, plurality, in the collective, to the simultaneous synthesis. To do this, the thesis is based on the notion of poetic -as complexity and internal synthesis- and in five architectural systems whose interaction cannot be ignored -field, program, material, geometry and morphology- to renovate and upgrade the usability of a critical method –the Mirregan-Todorov method- which has obtained recognized results, but whose heavy structure limits greatly its scope and operational. In this sense, it is not a purely analytical thesis. It neither tries to identify any architectural paradigms for this century. This research reformulates the role of criticism of architecture today. It runs from the open orderliness –as self-organization- of the poetic criticism to propose a line of work on the interaction of architectural systems in a synergistic manner and available to the project process. Since this attitude enables the production of a series of open mapping which reflect multiple current factors and agents of influence, this arrangement leads, as a final proposition, to raise the poetic criticism as a teaching and educational instrument of the subject of architectural design, where those maps lead to a complex, but approachable, vision of the project as a whole.

Repeated occurrence of basal cell carcinoma of the skin and multifailure survival analysis: Follow-up data from the nambour skin cancer prevention trial

The aim of this study was to apply multifailure survival methods to analyze time to multiple occurrences of basal cell carcinoma (BCC). Data from 4.5 years of follow-up in a randomized controlled trial, the Nambour Skin Cancer Prevention Trial (1992-1996), to evaluate skin cancer prevention were used to assess the influence of sunscreen application on the time to first BCC and the time to subsequent BCCs. Three different approaches of time to ordered multiple events were applied and compared: the Andersen-Gill, Wei-Lin-Weissfeld, and Prentice-Williams-Peterson models. Robust variance estimation approaches were used for all multifailure survival models. Sunscreen treatment was not associated with time to first occurrence of a BCC (hazard ratio = 1.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.79, 1.45). Time to subsequent BCC tumors using the Andersen-Gill model resulted in a lower estimated hazard among the daily sunscreen application group, although statistical significance was not reached (hazard ratio = 0.82, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 1.15). Similarly, both the Wei-Lin-Weissfeld marginal-hazards and the Prentice-Williams-Peterson gap-time models revealed trends toward a lower risk of subsequent BCC tumors among the sunscreen intervention group. These results demonstrate the importance of conducting multiple-event analysis for recurring events, as risk factors for a single event may differ from those where repeated events are considered.

Soliton generation from randomly modulated return-to-zero pulses

We consider return-to-zero (RZ) pulses with random phase modulation propagating in a nonlinear channel (modelled by the integrable nonlinear Schrödinger equation, NLSE). We suggest two different models for the phase fluctuations of the optical field: (i) Gaussian short-correlated fluctuations and (ii) generalized telegraph process. Using the rectangular-shaped pulse form we demonstrate that the presence of phase fluctuations of both types strongly influences the number of solitons generated in the channel. It is also shown that increasing the correlation time for the random phase fluctuations affects the coherent content of a pulse in a non-trivial way. The result obtained has potential consequences for all-optical processing and design of optical decision elements.

Network lifetime maximization with cross-layer design in wireless sensor networks

This paper investigates a cross-layer design approach for minimizing energy consumption and maximizing network lifetime (NL) of a multiple-source and single-sink (MSSS) WSN with energy constraints. The optimization problem for MSSS WSN can be formulated as a mixed integer convex optimization problem with the adoption of time division multiple access (TDMA) in medium access control (MAC) layer, and it becomes a convex problem by relaxing the integer constraint on time slots. Impacts of data rate, link access and routing are jointly taken into account in the optimization problem formulation. Both linear and planar network topologies are considered for NL maximization (NLM). With linear MSSS and planar single-source and single-sink (SSSS) topologies, we successfully use Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) optimality conditions to derive analytical expressions of the optimal NL when all nodes are exhausted simultaneously. The problem for planar MSSS topology is more complicated, and a decomposition and combination (D&C) approach is proposed to compute suboptimal solutions. An analytical expression of the suboptimal NL is derived for a small scale planar network. To deal with larger scale planar network, an iterative algorithm is proposed for the D&C approach. Numerical results show that the upper-bounds of the network lifetime obtained by our proposed optimization models are tight. Important insights into the NL and benefits of cross-layer design for WSN NLM are obtained.

An investigation of management accounting control systems in the palm oil industry:a sociomaterial approach to practice change

The primary aim of this research is to understand what constitutes management accounting and control (MACs) practice and how these control processes are implicated in the day to day work practices and operations of the organisation. It also examines the changes that happen in MACs practices over time as multiple actors within organisational settings interact with each other. I adopt a distinctive practice theory approach (i.e. sociomateriality) and the concept of imbrication in this research to show that MACs practices emerge from the entanglement between human/social agency and material/technological agency within an organisation. Changes in the pattern of MACs practices happens in imbrication processes which are produced as the two agencies entangle. The theoretical approach employed in this research offers an interesting and valuable lens which seeks to reveal the depth of these interactions and uncover the way in which the social and material imbricate. The theoretical framework helps to reveal how these constructions impact on and produce modifications of MACs practices. The exploration of the control practices at different hierarchical levels (i.e. from the operational to middle management and senior level management) using the concept of imbrication process also maps the dynamic flow of controls from operational to top management and vice versa in the organisation. The empirical data which is the focus of this research has been gathered from a case study of an organisation involved in a large vertically integrated palm oil industry company in Malaysia specifically the refinery sector. The palm oil industry is a significant industry in Malaysia as it contributed an average of 4.5% of Malaysian Gross Domestic Product, over the period 1990 -2010. The Malaysian palm oil industry also has a significant presence in global food oil supply where it contributed 26% of the total oils and fats global trade in 2010. The case organisation is a significant contributor to the Malaysian palm oil industry. The research access has provided an interesting opportunity to explore the interactions between different groups of people and material/technology in a relatively heavy process food industry setting. My research examines how these interactions shape and are shaped by control practices in a dynamic cycle of imbrications over both short and medium time periods.