Modelling the control of interceptive actions

In recent years, several phenomenological dynamical models have been formulated that describe how perceptual variables are incorporated in the control of motor variables. We call these short-route models as they do not address how perception-action patterns might be constrained by the dynamical properties of the sensory, neural and musculoskeletal subsystems of the human action system. As an alternative, we advocate a long-route modelling approach in which the dynamics of these subsystems are explicitly addressed and integrated to reproduce interceptive actions. The approach is exemplified through a discussion of a recently developed model for interceptive actions consisting of a neural network architecture for the online generation of motor outflow commands, based on time-to-contact information and information about the relative positions and velocities of hand and ball. This network is shown to be consistent with both behavioural and neurophysiological data. Finally, some problems are discussed with regard to the question of how the motor outflow commands (i.e. the intended movement) might be modulated in view of the musculoskeletal dynamics.

The geometry and ionization structure of the wind in the eclipsing nova-like variables RW Tri and UX UMa

The UV spectra of nova-like variables are dominated by emission from the accretion disk, modified by scattering in a wind emanating from the disk. Here, we model the spectra of RW Tri and UX UMa, the only two eclipsing nova-like variables which have been observed with the Hubble Space Telescope in the far-ultraviolet, in an attempt to constrain the geometry and the ionization structure of their winds. Using our Monte Carlo radiative transfer code, we computed spectra for simply parameterized axisymmetric biconical outflow models and were able to find plausible models for both systems. These reproduce the primary UV resonance lines-N v, Si iv, and C iv-in the observed spectra in and out of eclipse. The distribution of these ions in the wind models is similar in both cases as is the extent of the primary scattering regions in which these lines are formed. The inferred mass-loss rates are 6%-8% of the mass accretion rates for the systems. We discuss the implication of our point models for our understanding of accretion disk winds in cataclysmic variables. © 2010. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.

Multidimensional modelling of X-ray spectra for AGN accretion disc outflows - III. Application to a hydrodynamical simulation

We perform multidimensional radiative transfer simulations to compute spectra for a hydrodynamical simulation of a line-driven accretion disc wind from an active galactic nucleus. The synthetic spectra confirm expectations from parametrized models that a disc wind can imprint a wide variety of spectroscopic signatures including narrow absorption lines, broad emission lines and a Compton hump. The formation of these features is complex with contributions originating from many of the different structures present in the hydrodynamical simulation. In particular, spectral features are shaped both by gas in a successfully launched outflow and in complex flows where material is lifted out of the disc plane but ultimately falls back. We also confirm that the strong Fe Ka line can develop a weak, red-skewed line wing as a result of Compton scattering in the outflow. In addition, we demonstrate that X-ray radiation scattered and reprocessed in the flow has a pivotal part in both the spectrum formation and determining the ionization conditions in the wind. We find that scattered radiation is rather effective in ionizing gas which is shielded from direct irradiation from the central source. This effect likely makes the successful launching of a massive disc wind somewhat more challenging and should be considered in future wind simulations. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 RAS.

Multidimensional modelling of X-ray spectra for AGN accretion disc outflows

We use a multidimensional Monte Carlo code to compute X-ray spectra for a variety of active galactic nucleus (AGN) disc-wind outflow geometries. We focus on the formation of blueshifted absorption features in the Fe K band and show that line features similar to those which have been reported in observations are often produced for lines of sight through disc-wind geometries. We also discuss the formation of other spectral features in highly ionized outflows. In particular, we show that, for sufficiently high wind densities, moderately strong Fe K emission lines can form and that electron scattering in the flow may cause these lines to develop extended red wings. We illustrate the potential relevance of such models to the interpretation of real X-ray data by comparison with observations of a well-known AGN, Mrk 766. Journal compilation © 2008 RAS.

Modelling the X-ray spectra of high-velocity outflows from quasars

High-velocity outflows from supermassive black holes have been invoked to explain the recent identification of strong absorption features in the hard X-ray spectra of several quasars. Here, Monte Carlo radiative transfer calculations are performed to synthesize X-ray spectra from models of such flows. It is found that simple, parametric biconical outflow models with plausible choices for the wind parameters predict spectra that are in good qualitative agreement with observations in the 2-10 keV band. The influence on the spectrum of both the mass-loss rate and opening angle of the flow are considered: the latter is important since photon leakage plays a significant role in establishing an ionization gradient within the flow, a useful discriminant between spherical and conical outflow for this and other applications. Particular attention is given to the bright quasar PG 1211+143 for which constraints on the outflow geometry and mass-loss rate are discussed subject to the limitations of the currently available observational data.

Two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations of H i line formation in massive young stellar object disc winds

Massive young stellar objects (YSOs) are powerful infrared Hi line emitters. It has been suggested that these lines form in an outflow from a disc surrounding the YSO. Here, new two-dimensional Monte Carlo radiative transfer calculations are described which test this hypothesis. Infrared spectra are synthesized for a YSO disc wind model based on earlier hydrodynamical calculations. The model spectra are in qualitative agreement with the observed spectra from massive YSOs, and therefore provide support for a disc wind explanation for the Hi lines. However, there are some significant differences: the models tend to overpredict the Bra/Br? ratio of equivalent widths and produce line profiles which are slightly too broad and, in contrast to typical observations, are double-peaked. The interpretation of these differences within the context of the disc wind picture and suggestions for their resolution via modifications to the assumed disc and outflow structure are discussed. © 2005 RAS.

Synthetic X-ray spectra for simulations of the dynamics of an accretion flow irradiated by a quasar

Ultraviolet and X-ray observations show evidence of outflowing gas around many active galactic nuclei. It has been proposed that some of these outflows are driven off gas infalling towards the central supermassive black hole. We perform radiative transfer calculations to compute the gas ionization state and the emergent X-ray spectra for both two- and three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamical simulations of this outflow-from-inflow scenario. By comparison with observations, our results can be used to test the theoretical models and guide future numerical simulations. We predict both absorption and emission features, most of which are formed in a polar funnel of relatively dense (10 -10 g cm ) outflowing gas. This outflow causes strong absorption for observer orientation angles of ?35°. Particularly in 3D, the strength of this absorption varies significantly for different lines of sight owing to the fragmentary structure of the gas flow. Although infalling material occupies a large fraction of the simulation volume, we do not find that it imprints strong absorption features in the X-ray spectra since the ionization state is predicted to be very high. Thus, an absence of observed inflow absorption features does not exclude the models. The main spectroscopic consequence of the infalling gas is a Compton-scattered continuum component that partially re-fills the absorption features caused by the outflowing polar funnel. Fluorescence and scattering in the outflow are predicted to give rise to several emission features including a multicomponent Fe Ka emission complex for all observer orientations. For the hydrodynamical simulations considered, we predict both ionization states and column densities for the outflowing gas that are too high to be quantitatively consistent with well-observed X-ray absorption systems. Nevertheless, our results are qualitatively encouraging and further exploration of the model parameter space is warranted. Higher resolution hydrodynamic simulations are needed to determine whether the outflows fragment on scales unresolved in our current study, which may yield the denser lower ionization material that could reconcile the models and the observations. © 2012 The Authors Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society © 2012 RAS.

Multidimensional modelling of X-ray spectra for AGN accretion disc outflows - II

Highly ionized fast accretion disc winds have been suggested as an explanation for a variety of observed absorption and emission features in the X-ray spectra of active galactic nuclei. Simple estimates have suggested that these flows may be massive enough to carry away a significant fraction of the accretion energy and could be involved in creating the link between supermassive black holes and their host galaxies. However, testing these hypotheses, and quantifying the outflow signatures, requires high-quality theoretical spectra for comparison with observations. Here, we describe extensions of our Monte Carlo radiative transfer code that allow us to generate realistic theoretical spectra for a much wider variety of disc wind models than that was possible in our previous work. In particular, we have expanded the range of atomic physics simulated by the code so that L- and M-shell ions can now be included. We have also substantially improved our treatment of both ionization and radiative heating such that we are now able to compute spectra for outflows containing far more diverse plasma conditions. We present example calculations that illustrate the variety of spectral features predicted by parametrized outflow models and demonstrate their applicability to the interpretation of data by comparison with observations of the bright quasar PG1211+143. We find that the major features in the observed 2-10 keV spectrum of this object can be well reproduced by our spectra, confirming that it likely hosts a massive outflow. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 RAS.

A simple disc wind model for broad absorption line quasars

Approximately 20 per cent of quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) exhibit broad, blue-shifted absorption lines in their ultraviolet spectra. Such features provide clear evidence for significant outflows from these systems, most likely in the form of accretion disc winds. These winds may represent the ‘quasar’ mode of feedback that is often invoked in galaxy formation/evolution models, and they are also key to unification scenarios for active galactic nuclei (AGN) and QSOs. To test these ideas, we construct a simple benchmark model of an equatorial, biconical accretion disc wind in a QSO and use a Monte Carlo ionization/radiative transfer code to calculate the ultraviolet spectra as a function of viewing angle. We find that for plausible outflow parameters, sightlines looking directly into the wind cone do produce broad, blue-shifted absorption features in the transitions typically seen in broad absorption line (BAL) QSOs. However, our benchmark model is intrinsically X-ray weak in order to prevent overionization of the outflow, and the wind does not yet produce collisionally excited line emission at the level observed in non-BAL QSOs. As a first step towards addressing these shortcomings, we discuss the sensitivity of our results to changes in the assumed X-ray luminosity and mass-loss rate, Ṁwind. In the context of our adopted geometry, Ṁwind ∼ Ṁacc is required in order to produce significant BAL features. The kinetic luminosity and momentum carried by such outflows would be sufficient to provide significant feedback.

Line-driven Disk Winds in Activ Galactic Nuclei: The Critical Importance of Ionization and Radiative Transfer

Accretion disk winds are thought to produce many of the characteristic features seen in the spectra of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and quasi-stellar objects (QSOs). These outflows also represent a natural form of feedback between the central supermassive black hole and its host galaxy. The mechanism for driving this mass loss remains unknown, although radiation pressure mediated by spectral lines is a leading candidate. Here, we calculate the ionization state of, and emergent spectra for, the hydrodynamic simulation of a line-driven disk wind previously presented by Proga & Kallman. To achieve this, we carry out a comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation of the radiative transfer through, and energy exchange within, the predicted outflow. We find that the wind is much more ionized than originally estimated. This is in part because it is much more difficult to shield any wind regions effectively when the outflow itself is allowed to reprocess and redirect ionizing photons. As a result, the calculated spectrum that would be observed from this particular outflow solution would not contain the ultraviolet spectral lines that are observed in many AGN/QSOs. Furthermore, the wind is so highly ionized that line driving would not actually be efficient. This does not necessarily mean that line-driven winds are not viable. However, our work does illustrate that in order to arrive at a self-consistent model of line-driven disk winds in AGN/QSO, it will be critical to include a more detailed treatment of radiative transfer and ionization in the next generation of hydrodynamic simulations.

Line-driven radiative outflows in luminous quasars

An analysis of ≃19 500 narrow (≲200 km s^-1) CIV λλ1548.2,1550.8 absorbers in ≃34 000 Sloan Digital Sky Survey quasar spectra is presented. The statistics of the number of absorbers as a function of outflow velocity shows that in approximately two-thirds of outflows, with multiple C IV absorbers present, absorbers are line-locked at the 500 km s^-1 velocity separation of the C IV absorber doublet; appearing as 'triplets' in the quasar spectra. Line-locking is an observational signature of radiative line-driving in outflowing material, where the successive shielding of 'clouds' of material in the outflow locks the clouds together in outflow velocity. Line-locked absorbers are seen in both broad absorption line (BAL) quasars and non-BAL quasars with comparable frequencies and with velocities out to at least 20 000 km s^-1. There are no detectable differences in the absorber properties and the dust content of single C IV doublets and line-locked C IV doublets. The gas associated with both single and line-locked CIV absorption systems includes material with a wide range of ionization potential (14-138 eV). Both single and line-locked CIV absorber systems show strong systematic trends in their ionization as a function of outflow velocity, with ionization decreasing rapidly with increasing outflow velocity. Initial simulations, employing CLOUDY, demonstrate that a rich spectrum of line-locked signals at various velocities may be expected due to significant opacities from resonance lines of Li-, He- and H-like ions of O, C and N, along with contributions from He II and HI resonance lines. The simulations confirm that line-driving can be the dominant acceleration mechanism for clouds with N(H I) ≃ 10¹⁹ cm^-2.

The impact of accretion disc winds on the optical spectra of cataclysmic variables

Many high-state non-magnetic cataclysmic variables (CVs) exhibit blueshifted absorption or P-Cygni profiles associated with ultraviolet (UV) resonance lines. These features imply the existence of powerful accretion disc winds in CVs. Here, we use our Monte Carlo ionization and radiative transfer code to investigate whether disc wind models that produce realistic UV line profiles are also likely to generate observationally significant recombination line and continuum emission in the optical waveband. We also test whether outflows may be responsible for the single-peaked emission line profiles often seen in high-state CVs and for the weakness of the Balmer absorption edge (relative to simple models of optically thick accretion discs). We find that a standard disc wind model that is successful in reproducing the UV spectra of CVs also leaves a noticeable imprint on the optical spectrum, particularly for systems viewed at high inclination. The strongest optical wind-formed recombination lines are H alpha and He ii lambda 4686. We demonstrate that a higher density outflow model produces all the expected H and He lines and produces a recombination continuum that can fill in the Balmer jump at high inclinations. This model displays reasonable verisimilitude with the optical spectrum of RW Trianguli. No single-peaked emission is seen, although we observe a narrowing of the double-peaked emission lines from the base of the wind. Finally, we show that even denser models can produce a single-peaked H alpha line. On the basis of our results, we suggest that winds can modify, and perhaps even dominate, the line and continuum emission from CVs.

The Ultraviolet-Bright, Slowly Declining Transient PS1-11af as a Partial Tidal Disruption Event

We present the Pan-STARRS1 discovery of the long-lived and blue transient PS1-11af, which was also detected by Galaxy Evolution Explorer with coordinated observations in the near-ultraviolet (NUV) band. PS1-11af is associated with the nucleus of an early type galaxy at redshift z = 0.4046 that exhibits no evidence for star formation or active galactic nucleus activity. Four epochs of spectroscopy reveal a pair of transient broad absorption features in the UV on otherwise featureless spectra. Despite the superficial similarity of these features to P-Cygni absorptions of supernovae (SNe), we conclude that PS1-11af is not consistent with the properties of known types of SNe. Blackbody fits to the spectral energy distribution are inconsistent with the cooling, expanding ejecta of a SN, and the velocities of the absorption features are too high to represent material in homologous expansion near a SN photosphere. However, the constant blue colors and slow evolution of the luminosity are similar to previous optically selected tidal disruption events (TDEs). The shape of the optical light curve is consistent with models for TDEs, but the minimum accreted mass necessary to power the observed luminosity is only 0.002 M, which points to a partial disruption model. A full disruption model predicts higher bolometric luminosities, which would require most of the radiation to be emitted in a separate component at high energies where we lack observations. In addition, the observed temperature is lower than that predicted by pure accretion disk models for TDEs and requires reprocessing to a constant, lower temperature. Three deep non-detections in the radio with the Very Large Array over the first two years after the event set strict limits on the production of any relativistic outflow comparable to Swift J1644+57, even if off-axis.

SN 2010ay is a Luminous and Broad-lined Type Ic Supernova within a Low-metallicity Host Galaxy

We report on our serendipitous pre-discovery detection and follow-up observations of the broad-lined Type Ic supernova (SN Ic) 2010ay at z = 0.067 imaged by the Pan-STARRS1 3π survey just ~4 days after explosion. The supernova (SN) had a peak luminosity, MR ≈ -20.2 mag, significantly more luminous than known GRB-SNe and one of the most luminous SNe Ib/c ever discovered. The absorption velocity of SN 2010ay is v Si ≈ 19 × 103 km s-1 at ~40 days after explosion, 2-5 times higher than other broad-lined SNe and similar to the GRB-SN 2010bh at comparable epochs. Moreover, the velocity declines ~2 times slower than other SNe Ic-BL and GRB-SNe. Assuming that the optical emission is powered by radioactive decay, the peak magnitude implies the synthesis of an unusually large mass of 56Ni, M Ni = 0.9 M ⊙. Applying scaling relations to the light curve, we estimate a total ejecta mass, M ej ≈ 4.7 M ⊙, and total kinetic energy, EK ≈ 11 × 1051 erg. The ratio of M Ni to M ej is ~2 times as large for SN 2010ay as typical GRB-SNe and may suggest an additional energy reservoir. The metallicity (log (O/H)PP04 + 12 = 8.19) of the explosion site within the host galaxy places SN 2010ay in the low-metallicity regime populated by GRB-SNe, and ~0.5(0.2) dex lower than that typically measured for the host environments of normal (broad-lined) SNe Ic. We constrain any gamma-ray emission with E γ ~ 1048 erg. We therefore rule out the association of a relativistic outflow like those that accompanied SN 1998bw and traditional long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), but we place less-stringent constraints on a weak afterglow like that seen from XRF 060218. If this SN did not harbor a GRB, these observations challenge the importance of progenitor metallicity for the production of relativistic ejecta and suggest that other parameters also play a key role.

Computing probable maximum loss in catastrophe reinsurance portfolios on multi-core and many-core architectures

In the reinsurance market, the risks natural catastrophes pose to portfolios of properties must be quantified, so that they can be priced, and insurance offered. The analysis of such risks at a portfolio level requires a simulation of up to 800 000 trials with an average of 1000 catastrophic events per trial. This is sufficient to capture risk for a global multi-peril reinsurance portfolio covering a range of perils including earthquake, hurricane, tornado, hail, severe thunderstorm, wind storm, storm surge and riverine flooding, and wildfire. Such simulations are both computation and data intensive, making the application of high-performance computing techniques desirable.

In this paper, we explore the design and implementation of portfolio risk analysis on both multi-core and many-core computing platforms. Given a portfolio of property catastrophe insurance treaties, key risk measures, such as probable maximum loss, are computed by taking both primary and secondary uncertainties into account. Primary uncertainty is associated with whether or not an event occurs in a simulated year, while secondary uncertainty captures the uncertainty in the level of loss due to the use of simplified physical models and limitations in the available data. A combination of fast lookup structures, multi-threading and careful hand tuning of numerical operations is required to achieve good performance. Experimental results are reported for multi-core processors and systems using NVIDIA graphics processing unit and Intel Phi many-core accelerators.