Annular flow of viscoelastic fluids: Analytical and numerical solutions

This work provides analytical and numerical solutions for the linear, quadratic and exponential Phan–Thien–Tanner (PTT) viscoelastic models, for axial and helical annular fully-developed flows under no slip and slip boundary conditions, the latter given by the linear and nonlinear Navier slip laws. The rheology of the three PTT model functions is discussed together with the influence of the slip velocity upon the flow velocity and stress fields. For the linear PTT model, full analytical solutions for the inverse problem (unknown velocity) are devised for the linear Navier slip law and two different slip exponents. For the linear PTT model with other values of the slip exponent and for the quadratic PTT model, the polynomial equation for the radial location (β) of the null shear stress must be solved numerically. For both models, the solution of the direct problem is given by an iterative procedure involving three nonlinear equations, one for β, other for the pressure gradient and another for the torque per unit length. For the exponential PTT model we devise a numerical procedure that can easily compute the numerical solution of the pure axial flow problem

ADSNARK: Nearly practical and privacy-preserving proofs on authenticated data

We study the problem of privacy-preserving proofs on authenticated data, where a party receives data from a trusted source and is requested to prove computations over the data to third parties in a correct and private way, i.e., the third party learns no information on the data but is still assured that the claimed proof is valid. Our work particularly focuses on the challenging requirement that the third party should be able to verify the validity with respect to the specific data authenticated by the source — even without having access to that source. This problem is motivated by various scenarios emerging from several application areas such as wearable computing, smart metering, or general business-to-business interactions. Furthermore, these applications also demand any meaningful solution to satisfy additional properties related to usability and scalability. In this paper, we formalize the above three-party model, discuss concrete application scenarios, and then we design, build, and evaluate ADSNARK, a nearly practical system for proving arbitrary computations over authenticated data in a privacy-preserving manner. ADSNARK improves significantly over state-of-the-art solutions for this model. For instance, compared to corresponding solutions based on Pinocchio (Oakland’13), ADSNARK achieves up to 25× improvement in proof-computation time and a 20× reduction in prover storage space.

Validation de la version française du questionnaire I7 d'impulsivité. Influence de la personnalité, du sexe et de la religion = Validation of the french version of the eysenck's impulsiveness questionnaire (I7). Influence of personality, gender, and religion

L'objectif de cette étude est de vérifier la validité interne de la version française du questionnaire d'impulsivité d'Eysenck (I7), traduite par Dupont et al., sur un échantillon d'étudiants suisses (n = 220). Dans leur questionnaire, Eysenck et Eysenck proposent trois échelles : les deux premières évaluant deux composantes distinctes de l'impulsivité (l'Impulsivité caractérisant les individus qui agissent sans penser, sans être conscients des risques associés à leurs actions, et la Recherche d'aventure caractérisant les individus qui agissent en étant conscients, et en tenant compte des risques associés à leurs actions), et la troisième servant de « distracteur » (l'Empathie caractérisant les individus qui ont la faculté de s'identifier à l'autre). La structure à trois facteurs de l'instrument a été confirmée par notre analyse factorielle en composantes principales. La solution factorielle retenue n'explique toutefois qu'une faible proportion de la variance (21.9 %). L'homogénéité interne des échelles, mesurée à l'aide d'alphas de Cronbach, est acceptable pour l'échelle d'Impulsivité (.78) et de Recherche d'aventure (.71), mais elle est, en revanche, faible pour l'échelle d'Empathie (.62). Les échelles de l'I7 d'Eysenck entretiennent des corrélations cohérentes avec les cinq grandes dimensions de la personnalité mesurées par le NEO PI-R. L'Impulsivité est associée négativement à la dimension Conscience (r = - .32), alors que la Recherche d'aventures est associée positivement à la dimension Extraversion (r = .33). Le sexe a un impact sur les échelles Recherche d'aventure et Empathie. Les qualités métrologiques de la version française du questionnaire d'impulsivité d'Eysenck (I7) sont satisfaisantes, mais l'estimation d'autres indices de validité, comme la fidélité test-retest et la validité convergente, devrait être réalisée.

The Global Dimension to Fiscal Sustainability

This paper examines the issue of fiscal sustainability in emerging market countries and industrial countries. We highlight the importance of the time series properties of the primary surplus and debt, and find evidence of a positive long run relationship. Consequently we emphasise, that especially for emerging markets, it is important to recognise the implications of global capital market shocks for fiscal sustainability, a relationship which has hitherto been ignored in the empirical literature. Using a factor model we demonstrate that the relationship between deficit and debt is conditional upon a global factor and we suggest that this global factor is related to world-wide liquidity. We also demonstrate that this acts as a constraint on emerging market economies’ fiscal policy.

UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting models as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output growth and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

Understanding Liquidity and Credit Risks in the Financial Crisis

This paper develops a structured dynamic factor model for the spreads between London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and overnight index swap (OIS) rates for a panel of banks. Our model involves latent factors which reflect liquidity and credit risk. Our empirical results show that surges in the short term LIBOR-OIS spreads during the 2007-2009 fi nancial crisis were largely driven by liquidity risk. However, credit risk played a more signifi cant role in the longer term (twelve-month) LIBOR-OIS spread. The liquidity risk factors are more volatile than the credit risk factor. Most of the familiar events in the financial crisis are linked more to movements in liquidity risk than credit risk.

UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting model as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

Personality traits and behavioural and psychological symptoms in patients with mild cognitive impairment.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Both personality changes and behavioural and psychological symptoms (BPS) may be associated with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in later life and help identify incipient dementia. We wished to investigate the links between personality and BPS in MCI. METHOD: We studied premorbid personality traits as estimated 5 years back and their changes in 83 control subjects and 52 MCI patients using the revised NEO Personality Inventory for the Five-Factor Model completed by a proxy. Information on BPS was obtained using the Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI). Analyses were controlled for current depression and anxiety. RESULTS: Premorbid neuroticism and openness to experience were associated with the total NPI score. The changes in neuroticism, extraversion, openness to experiences, and conscientiousness were associated with apathy and affective symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Personality changes and BPS occur in MCI. The occurrence of affective BPS and apathy is associated with both premorbid personality traits and their changes.

Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets

This paper investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement, which is mainly attributed to shocks to non-fundamentals. Global fundamentals, especially global inflation, affect yields through a ‘policy channel’ and a ‘risk compensation channel’, but the effects through two channels are offset. This evidence explains the unsatisfactory performance of fundamentals-driven term structure models. Our approach delineates asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. The proposed model is robust as identified factors has significant explanatory power of excess returns. The finding that global inflation uncertainty is useful in explaining realized excess returns does not rule out regime changing as a source of non-fundamental fluctuations.

High-resolution numerical modelling of flow-vegetation interactions

In this paper, we present and apply a new three-dimensional model for the prediction of canopy-flow and turbulence dynamics in open-channel flow. The approach uses a dynamic immersed boundary technique that is coupled in a sequentially staggered manner to a large eddy simulation. Two different biomechanical models are developed depending on whether the vegetation is dominated by bending or tensile forces. For bending plants, a model structured on the Euler-Bernoulli beam equation has been developed, whilst for tensile plants, an N-pendula model has been developed. Validation against flume data shows good agreement and demonstrates that for a given stem density, the models are able to simulate the extraction of energy from the mean flow at the stem-scale which leads to the drag discontinuity and associated mixing layer.

Personality, psychosocial and health-related predictors of quality of life in old age.

OBJECTIVES: Beyond its well-documented association with depressive symptoms across the lifespan, at an individual level, quality of life may be determined by multiple factors: psychosocial characteristics, current physical health and long-term personality traits. METHOD: Quality of life was assessed in two distinct community-based age groups (89 young adults aged 36.2 ± 6.3 and 92 older adults aged 70.4 ± 5.5 years), each group equally including adults with and without acute depressive symptoms. Regression models were applied to explore the association between quality of life assessed with the World Health Organization Quality of Life - Bref (WHOQOL-Bref) and depression severity, education, social support, physical illness, as well as personality dimensions as defined by the Five-Factor Model. RESULTS: In young age, higher quality of life was uniquely associated with lower severity of depressive symptoms. In contrast, in old age, higher quality of life was related to both lower levels of depressive mood and of physical illness. In this age group, a positive association was also found between quality of life and higher levels of Openness to experience and Agreeableness personality dimensions. CONCLUSION: Our data indicated that, in contrast to young cohorts, where acute depression is the main determinant of poor quality of life, physical illness and personality dimensions represent additional independent predictors of this variable in old age. This observation points to the need for concomitant consideration of physical and psychological determinants of quality of life in old age.

Psychometric properties of the French version of the Zuckerman-Kuhlman Personality Questionnaire

This instrumental study was designed to investigate the psychometric properties of the French version and the cross-language replicability of the Zuckerman-Kuhlman Personality Questionnaire (ZKPQ) at the factor- and at the facet-level. The ZKPQ is an instrument aimed at assessing the five basic factors of Zuckerman's Alternative Five-Factor Model (AFFM). Subjects were 843 French-speaking Swiss, mainly students. At the factor-level, the reliability ranged from .73 to .87 and at the facet level, the reliability ranged from .57 to .77. Differences between genders are congruent with those found in the American sample. Women scored higher on N-Anx, and lower on ImpSS, and Act. A series of exploratory factor analyses supported the overall five-factor structure and the structure at the facet-level. The correlations among the scales support that the five basic factors of the AFFM are orthogonal. Targeted factor analyses and congruence coefficients show high cross-language replicability at the factor- and at the facet-level. The adequacy of the model at the factor- and facet-level was tested using confirmatory factor analyses. The results show that the French version of the ZKPQ is a reliable and valid instrument and has a high cross-language replicability.

Fiscal foresight and the effects of government spending

We study the effects of government spending by using a structural, large dimensional, dynamic factor model. We find that the government spending shock is non-fundamental for the variables commonly used in the structural VAR literature, so that its impulse response functions cannot be consistently estimated by means of a VAR. Government spending raises both consumption and investment, with no evidence of crowding out. The impact multiplier is 1.7 and the long run multiplier is 0.6.

Fiscal policy, foresight and the trade balance in the U.S.

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the trade balance using a structural factor model. A fiscal policy shock worsens the trade balance and produces an appreciation of the domestic currency but the effects are quantitatively small. The findings match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model, although fiscal policy should not be considered one of the main causes of the large US external deficit. My conclusions differ from those reached using VAR models since the fiscal shock, possibly due to fiscal foresight, is nonfundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs.

Personality changes in patients with beginning Alzheimer disease.

Objective: To investigate personality traits in patients with Alzheimer disease, compared with mentally healthy control subjects. We compared both current personality characteristics using structured interviews as well as current and previous personality traits as assessed by proxies. Method: Fifty-four patients with mild Alzheimer disease and 64 control subjects described their personality traits using the Structured Interview for the Five-Factor Model. Family members filled in the Revised NEO Personality Inventory, Form R, to evaluate their proxies' current personality traits, compared with 5 years before the estimated beginning of Alzheimer disease or 5 years before the control subjects. Results: After controlling for age, the Alzheimer disease group presented significantly higher scores than normal control subjects on current neuroticism, and significantly lower scores on current extraversion, openness, and conscientiousness, while no significant difference was observed on agreeableness. A similar profile, though less accentuated, was observed when considering personality traits as the patients' proxies remembered them. Diachronic personality assessment showed again significant differences between the 2 groups for the same 4 domains, with important personality changes only for the Alzheimer disease group. Conclusions: Group comparison and retrospective personality evaluation are convergent. Significant personality changes follow a specific trend in patients with Alzheimer disease and contrast with the stability generally observed in mentally healthy people in their personality profile throughout their lives. Whether or not the personality assessment 5 years before the current status corresponds to an early sign of Alzheimer disease or real premorbid personality differences in people who later develop Alzheimer disease requires longitudinal studies.