The international competitiveness of the Costa Rican clothing industry

Includes bibliography

Latin America and the Caribbean: projections 2006-2007

Includes bibliography

Phylogenetic relationships of the genus Sibynophis (Serpentes: Colubroidea)

We present the results of the first molecular analysis of the phylogenetic affinities of the Asian colubroid genus Sibynophis. We recovered a sister-group relationship between Sibynophis and the New World Scaphiodontophis. Although Liophidium sometimes is associated with these genera, the relationship is distant. Morphological characters that Liophidium shares with Sibynophis and Scaphiodontophis are resolved as homoplasies that probably reflect the similarities of their specialized feeding habits. The traditional subfamily Sibynophiinae is elevated to the family-level, and Scaphiodontophiinae is placed in its synonymy.

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 1997

Incluye Bibliografía.

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Recovery of employment: towards a sustainable model

The adverse effects on Latin America and the Caribbean of the global economic and financial crisis, the worst since the 1930s, have been considerably less than was once feared. Although a run of growth was cut short in 2009 and regional output shrank by 1.9%, the impact of the crisis was limited by the application of countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies by many of the region’s governments. The recovery in the economies, particularly in South America, has gone hand-in-hand with the rapid resurgence of the emerging economies of Asia, with all the favourable consequences this has had for global trade. A similar pattern may be observed regarding the impact of the crisis on labour markets in Latin America and the Caribbean. Although millions of people lost their jobs or had to trade down to lower-quality work, levels of employment (including formal employment) fell by less than originally foreseen. At the same time, real wages rose slightly in a context of falling inflation. The labour market thus stabilized domestic demand, and this contributed to the recovery that began in many countries in late 2009. Improved international trade and financing conditions, and the pick-up in domestic demand driven by macroeconomic policies, have led different commentators to estimate growth in the region’s economy at some 6% in 2010. As detailed in the first part of this edition of the Bulletin, the upturn has been manifested at the regional level by the creation of formal employment, a rise in the employment rate, a decline in joblessness and a moderate increase in real wages. Specifically, it is estimatedthat the regional unemployment rate will have dropped by 0.6 percentage points, from 8.1% in 2009 to 7.5% in 2010. The performance of different countries and subregions has been very uneven, however. On the one hand, there is Brazil, where high economic growth has been accompanied by vigorous creation of formal jobs and the unemployment rate has dropped to levels not seen in a long time. Other countries in South America have benefited from strong demand for natural resources from the Asian countries. Combined with higher domestic demand, this has raised their economic growth rates and had a positive impact on employment indicators. On the other hand, the recovery is still very weak in certain countries and subregions, particularly in the Caribbean, with employment indicators continuing to worsen.Thus, the recovery in the region’s economy in 2010 may be characterized as dynamic but uneven. Growth estimates for 2011 are less favourable. The risks associated with the imbalances in the world economy and the withdrawal of countercyclical fiscal packages are likely to cause the region to grow more slowly in 2011. Accordingly, a small further reduction of between 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points in the unemployment rate is projected for 2011. However, these indicators of recovery do not guarantee growth with decent work in the long term. To bolster the improvement in labour market indicators and generate more productive employment and decent work, the region’s countries need to strengthen their macroeconomic policies, improve regional and global policy coordination, identify and remove bottlenecks in the labour market itself and enhance instruments designed to promote greater equality. Like the rest of the world, the Latin American and Caribbean region is also confronted with the challenge of transforming the way it produces so that its economies can develop along tracks that are sustainable in the long term. Climate change and the consequent challenge of developing and strengthening low-carbon production and consumption patterns will also affect the way people work. A great challenge ahead is to create green jobs that combine decent work with environmentally sustainable production patterns. From this perspective, the second part of this Bulletin discusses the green jobs approach, offering some information on the challenges and opportunities involved in moving towards a sustainable economy in the region and presenting a set of options for addressing environmental issues and the repercussions of climate change in the world of work. Although the debate about the green jobs concept is fairly new in the region, examples already exist and a number of countries have moved ahead with the application of policies and programmes in this area. Costa Rica has formulated a National Climate Change Strategy, for example, whose foremost achievements include professional training in natural-resource management. In Brazil, fuel production from biomass has increased and social housing with solar panelling is being built. A number of other countries in the region are making progress in areas such as ecotourism, sustainable agriculture and infrastructure for climate change adaptation, and in formalizing the work of people who recycle household waste. The shift towards a more environmentally sustainable economy may cause jobs to be destroyed in some economic sectors and created in others. The working world will inevitably undergo major changes. If the issue is approached by way of social dialogue and appropriate public policies, there is a chance to use this shift to create more decent jobs, thereby contributing to growth in the economy, the construction of higher levels of equality and protection for the environment.

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Crisis, stabilization and reactivation: performance of the labour market in 2009

Following a five-year period during which economic and social performance in Latin America and the Caribbean surpassed anything seen in recent decades, the global economic and financial crisis not only hurt macroeconomic variables but also impacted heavily on labour markets in the region’s countries. Between 2003 and 2008 employment rates had risen considerably, especially in the formal sector, but the crisis spelled a reversal of this trend. Nevertheless, the region was better prepared than it had been in previous crises, since it had achieved a sound fiscal footing, a good level of international reserves and low rates of inflation. This meant that the authorities had the space to implement countercyclical policies on both fiscal and monetary levels. Be this as it may, faced with the worst global crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s, these measures could only attenuate the impact on the region’s economies —they could not prevent it altogether. Furthermore, the crisis struck with notable differences among subregions and countries depending on the nature of their trade integration, and not all the countries had the fiscal space to implement vigorous countercyclical policies. As discussed in this third ECLAC/ILO bulletin, the crisis did less damage to the region’s labour markets than had been feared at the beginning of last year, thanks to the implementation of public policies geared towards employment, as reviewed in the two previous bulletins. This bulletin offers an additional analysis from the perspective of gender equality. Moreover, some countries in the region, notably Brazil, managed to rapidly stabilize and revive economic growth, with positive effects on labour variables. The fact remains, however, that millions in Latin America and the Caribbean lost their jobs or were obliged to accept more poorly paid employment in more precarious conditions. The macroeconomic data indicate that recovery is under way and is stronger and occurring more rapidly than foreseen one year ago. In fact, regional growth in 2010 may well exceed the 4.1% forecast at the end of 2009. Consequently, although the unemployment rate may be expected to record a modest drop, it may not return to pre-crisis levels. The upturn is taking many different forms in the countries of the region. In some, especially in South America, recovery has benefited from the buoyancy of the Asian economies, whose demand for natural resources has driven large increases in exports, in terms of both volume and price. Countries whose economies are closely tied to the United States economy are benefiting from the recovery there, albeit more slowly and with a certain lag. Conversely, some countries are still suffering from major disequilibria, which are hampering their economic reactivation. Lastly, Chile and Haiti were both victims of devastating earthquakes early in the year and are therefore facing additional challenges associated with reconstruction, on top of their efforts to sustain an economic upturn. Despite the relatively favourable outlook for regional growth in 2010, great uncertainty still surrounds the global economy’s recovery, which affects the region’s economic prospects over the longer term. The weakness of the recovery in some regions and the doubts about its sustainability in others, as well as shocks that have occurred in international financial markets, are warning signs which authorities need to monitor continuously because of the region’s close integration with the global economy. In addition, a return to growth does not directly or automatically mean higher employment rates —still less decent working conditions. Although some labour indicators have performed reasonably favourably since the end of last year, the countries still face daunting challenges in improving the labour market integration of millions in Latin America and the Caribbean who are not seeing the fruits of renewed growth. This is why it is important to learn the lessons arising from the policies implemented during the crisis to offset its impact on labour markets. With this third joint bulletin, ECLAC and ILO continue to pursue their objective of affording the region the information and analyses needed to face these challenges, as regards both trends in the region’s labour markets and the corresponding policy options.

The Somatic Chromosomes of Some North American Marmots (Sciuridae), with Remarks on the Relationships of Marmota browerii Hall and Gilmore

Karyotypes are defined for two nearctic species of marmots, Marmota olympus (2n = 40) and M. vancouverensis (2n = 42), and supplemental information is included on the karyotypes of M. flaviventris, M. monax ochracea, and M. marmota. The six North American species of Marmota (NF = 66) comprise a distinct group as compared with the middle Asian species (NF = 70) for which the karyotypes are known. Karyologic findings and zoogeographic evidence based upon the distribution of two nearctic species of host-specific cestodes indicate that M. broweri, in northern Alaska, is a pre-Würm relict. Its affinities appear to be with the North American caligata-group rather than with the northeastern Siberian M. camtschatica. The occurrence on M. broweri of the Asian flea, Oropsylla silantiewi, has not been explained. Some ecological and behavioral characteristics of M. broweri are briefly described and compared with those of other species. Family groups of M. broweri hibernate together in single winter dens that are plugged at the entrance; copulation takes place before the animals emerge from the winter den, near mid-May; face-glands are utilized in marking of territory. French abstract: Les auteurs définissent les caryotypes de deux espèces néarctiques de marmottes, Marmota olympus (2n=40) et M. vancouverensis (2n=42), et donnent des précisions sur les caryotypes de M. flaviventris, M. monax ochracea et M. marmota. Les six especes de Marmota (NF=66) d'Amérique du Nord forment un groupe distinct des espèces d'Asie centrale (NF=70) dont Ie caryotype est connu. Les données caryologiques et les preuves zoogéographiques basées sur la répartition de deux espèces néarctiques de cestodes spécifiques de I'hôte démontrent que M. broweri, dans l'Alaska septentrional, est une relicte du pré-Würm. Elle semble avoir plus d'affinités avec Ie groupe nord américain de caligata qu'avec M. camtschatica du nord de la Sibérie. La présence sur M. broweri de la puce asiatique, Oropsylla silantiewi, n'est pas expliquée. Quelques caractéristiques écologiques et éthologiques de M. broweri sont décrites brièvement et comparées avec celles d'autres espèces. Les groupes familiaux de M. broweri hibernent dans un meme terrier dont l'entrée est bouchée; la copulation à lieu avant que les animaux sortent de leur abri hivernal, it la mi-mai ; ils se servent de leurs glandes faciales pour marquer leur territoire.

Phylogenetic relationships of the genus Sibynophis (Serpentes: Colubroidea)

We present the results of the first molecular analysis of the phylogenetic affinities of the Asian colubroid genus Sibynophis. We recovered a sister-group relationship between Sibynophis and the New World Scaphiodontophis. Although Liophidium sometimes is associated with these genera, the relationship is distant. Morphological characters that Liophidium shares with Sibynophis and Scaphiodontophis are resolved as homoplasies that probably reflect the similarities of their specialized feeding habits. The traditional subfamily Sibynophiinae is elevated to the family-level, and Scaphiodontophiinae is placed in its synonymy.

Wind-driven cross-equatorial flow in the Indian ocean

Máster en Oceanografía

Calibration study of bivalve shells : implications for paleoenvironmental reconstruction

The accretionary shells of bivalve mollusks can provide environmental information, such as water temperature, precipitation, freshwater fluxes, primary productivity and anthropogenic activities in the form of variable growth rates and variable geochemical properties, such as stable oxygen and carbon isotopes. However, paleoenvironmental reconstructions are constrained by uncertainties about isotopic equilibrium fractionation during shell formation, which is generally acknowledged as a reasonable assumption for bivalves, but it has been disputed in several species. Furthermore, the variation in shell growth rates is accepted to rely on multiple environmental variables, such as temperature, food availability and salinity, but can differ from species to species. Therefore, it is necessary to perform species-specific calibration studies for both isotope proxies and shell growth rates before they can be used with confidence for environmental interpretations of the past. Accordingly, the principal objective of this Ph.D research is to examine the reliability of selected bivalve species, the long-lived Eurhomalea exalbida (Dillwyn), the short-lived and fast growing species Paphia undulata (Born 1778), and the freshwater mussel Margaritifera falcata (Gould 1850), as paleoenvironmental proxy archives.rnThe first part is focused on δ18Oshell and shell growth history of live-collected E. exalbida from the Falkland Islands. The most remarkable finding, however, is that E. exalbida formed its shell with an offset of -0.48‰ to -1.91‰ from the expected oxygen isotopic equilibrium with the ambient water. If this remained unnoticed, paleotemperature estimates would overestimate actual water temperatures by 2.1-8.3°C. With increasing ontogenetic age, the discrepancy between measured and reconstructed temperatures increased exponentially, irrespective of the seasonally varying shell growth rates. This study clearly demonstrates that, when the disequilibrium fractionation effect is taken into account, E. exalbida can serve as a high-resolution paleoclimate archive for the southern South America. The species therefore provides quantifiable temperature estimates, which yields new insights into long-term paleoclimate dynamics for mid to high latitudes on the southern hemisphere.rnThe stable carbon isotope of biogenic carbonates is generally considered to be useful for reconstruction of seawater dissolved inorganic carbon. The δ13Cshell composition of E. exalbida was therefore, investigated in the second part of this study. This chapter focuses on inter-annual and intra-annual variations in δ13Cshell. Environmental records in δ13Cshell are found to be strongly obscured by changes in shell growth rates, even if removing the ontogenetic decreasing trend. This suggests that δ13Cshell in E. exalbida may not be useful as an environmental proxy, but a potential tool for ecological investigations. rnIn addition to long-lived bivalve species, short-lived species that secrete their shells extremely fast, can also be useful for environmental reconstructions, especially as a high-resolution recorder. Therefore, P. undulata from Daya Bay, South China Sea was utilized in Chapter 4 to evaluate and establish a potential proxy archive for past variations of the East Asian monsoon on shorter time-scales. The δ18Oshell can provide qualitative estimates of the amount of monsoonal rain and terrestrial runoff and the δ13Cshell likely reflect the relative amount of isotopically light terrestrial carbon that reaches the ocean during the summer monsoon season. Therefore, shells of P. undulata can provide serviceable proxy archives to reconstruct the frequency of exceptional summer monsoons in the past. The relative strength of monsoon-related precipitation and associated changes in ocean salinity and the δ13C ratios of the dissolved inorganic carbon signature (δ13CDIC) can be estimated from the δ18Oshell and δ13Cshell values as well as shell growth patterns. rnIn the final part, the freshwater pearl shell M. falcata from four rivers in British Columbia, Canada was preliminarily studied concerning the lifespans and the shell growth rates. Two groups separated by the Georgia Strait can be clearly distinguished. Specimens from the western group exhibit a shorter lifespan, while the eastern group live longer. Moreover, the average lifespan seems to decrease from south to north. The computed growth equations from the eastern and western groups differ as well. The western group exhibits a lower growth rate, while bivalves from the eastern group grow faster. The land use history seems to be responsible for the differences in lifespans of the specimens from the two groups. Differences in growth rate may be induced by differences in water temperature or nutrient input also related to the land use activities.

Untersuchung von Mischungs- und Transportprozessen in der oberen Troposphäre - unteren Stratosphäre basierend auf in-situ Spurengasmessungen

Die obere Troposphäre / untere Stratosphäre (UTLS: Upper Troposphere / Lower Stratosphere)ist die Übergangsgregion zwischen den dynamisch, chemisch und mikrophysikalisch sehr verschiedenen untersten Atmosphärenschichten, der Troposphäre und der Stratosphäre. Strahlungsaktive Spurengase, wie zum Beispiel Wasserdampf (H2O), Ozon (O3) oder Kohlenstoffdioxid (CO2), und Wolken in der UTLS beeinflussen das Strahlungsbudget der Atmosphäre und das globale Klima. Mögliche Veränderungen in den Verteilungen und Konzentrationen dieser Spurengase modifizieren den Strahlungsantrieb der Atmosphäre und können zum beobachteten Klimawandel beitragen. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, Austausch- und Mischungsprozesse innerhalb der UTLS besser zu verstehen und damit Veränderungen der Spurengaszusammensetzung dieser Region genauer prognostizieren zu können. Grundlage hierfür bilden flugzeuggetragene in-situ Spurengasmessungen in der UTLS, welche während der Flugzeugmesskampagnen TACTS / ESMVal 2012 und AIRTOSS - ICE 2013 durchgeführt wurden. Hierbei wurde bei den Messungen von AIRTOSS - ICE 2013 das im Rahmen dieser Arbeit aufgebaute UMAQS (University of Mainz Airborne QCLbased Spectrometer) - Instrument zur Messung der troposphärischen Spurengase Distickstoffmonoxid (N2O) und Kohlenstoffmonoxid (CO) eingesetzt. Dieses erreicht bei einer zeitlichen Auflösung von 1 s eine Messunsicherheit von 0,39 ppbv und 1,39 ppbv der N2O bzw. CO-Mischungsverhältnisse. Die hohe Zeitauflösung und Messgenauigkeit der N2O- und CO- Daten erlaubt die Untersuchung von kleinskaligen Austauschprozessen zwischen Troposphäre und Stratosphäre im Bereich der Tropopause auf räumlichen Skalen kleiner 200 m. Anhand der N2O-Daten von AIRTOSS - ICE 2013 können in-situ detektierte Zirruspartikel in eisübersättigter Luft oberhalb der N2O-basierten chemischen Tropopause nachgewiesen werden. Mit Hilfe der N2O-CO-Korrelation sowie der Analyse von ECMWF-Modelldaten und der Berechnung von Rückwärtstrajektorien kann deren Existenz auf das irreversible Vermischen von troposphärischen und stratosphärischen Luftmassen zurückgeführt werden. Mit den in-situ Messungen von N2O, CO und CH4 (Methan) von TACTS und ESMVal 2012 werden die großräumigen Spurengasverteilungen bis zu einer potentiellen Temperatur von Theta = 410 K in der extratropischen Stratosphäre untersucht. Hierbei kann eine Verjüngung der Luftmassen in der extratropischen Stratosphäre mit Delta Theta > 30 K (relativ zur dynamischen Tropopause) über den Zeitraum der Messkampagne (28.08.2012 - 27.09.2012) nachgewiesen werden. Die Korrelation von N2O mit O3 zeigt, dass diese Verjüngung aufgrund des verstärkten Eintrages von Luftmassen aus der tropischen unteren Stratosphäre verursacht wird. Diese werden über den flachen Zweig der Brewer-Dobson-Zirkulation auf Zeitskalen von wenigen Wochen in die extratropische Stratosphäre transportiert. Anhandrnder Analyse der CO-O3-Korrelation eines Messfluges vom 30.08.2012 wird das irreversible Einmischen von Luftmassen aus der tropischen Stratosphäre in die Extratropen auf Isentropen mit Theta > 380 K identifiziert. Rückwärtstrajektorien zeigen, dass der Ursprung der eingemischten tropischen Luftmassen im Bereich der sommerlichen Antizyklone des asiatischen Monsuns liegt.

Essays on credit rating agencies and the assessment of sovereign risk

Sovereign ratings have only recently regained attention in the academic debate. This seems to be somewhat surprising against the background that their influence is well-known and that rating decisions have often been criticized in the past (as for example during the Asian crisis in the 90s). Sovereign ratings do not only assess the creditworthiness of governments: They are also included in the calculation of ratings for sub-sovereign issuers whereby their rating is usually restricted to the upper bound of the sovereign rating (sovereign ceiling). Earlier studies have also shown that the downgrade of a sovereign often leads to contagion effects on neighbor countries. This study focuses first on misleading incentives in the rating industry before chapter three summarizes the literature on the influence and determinants of sovereign ratings. The fourth chapter explores empirically how ratings respond to changes in sovereign debt across specific country groups. The fifth part focuses on single rating decisions of four selected rating agencies and investigates whether the timing of decisions gives reason for herding behavior. The final chapter presents a reform proposal for the future regulation of the rating industry in light of the aforementioned flaws.rn

Recent increase in black carbon concentrations from a Mt. Everest ice core spanning 1860-2000 AD

A Mt. Everest ice core spanning 1860–2000 AD and analyzed at high resolution for black carbon (BC) using a Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) demonstrates strong seasonality, with peak concentrations during the winter-spring, and low concentrations during the summer monsoon season. BC concentrations from 1975–2000 relative to 1860–1975 have increased approximately threefold, indicating that BC from anthropogenic sources is being transported to high elevation regions of the Himalaya. The timing of the increase in BC is consistent with BC emission inventory data from South Asia and the Middle East, however since 1990 the ice core BC record does not indicate continually increasing BC concentrations. The Everest BC and dust records provide information about absorbing impurities that can contribute to glacier melt by reducing the albedo of snow and ice. There is no increasing trend in dust concentrations since 1860, and estimated surface radiative forcing due to BC in snow exceeds that of dust in snow. This suggests that a reduction in BC emissions may be an effective means to reduce the effect of absorbing impurities on snow albedo and melt, which affects Himalayan glaciers and the availability of water resources in major Asian rivers.

First insights into the phylogenetic diversity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Nepal

Background Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem in Nepal. Strain variation in Mycobacterium tuberculosis may influence the outcome of TB infection and disease. To date, the phylogenetic diversity of M. tuberculosis in Nepal is unknown. Methods and Findings We analyzed 261 M. tuberculosis isolates recovered from pulmonary TB patients recruited between August 2009 and August 2010 in Nepal. M. tuberculosis lineages were determined by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) typing and spoligotyping. Drug resistance was determined by sequencing the hot spot regions of the relevant target genes. Overall, 164 (62.8%) TB patients were new, and 97 (37.2%) were previously treated. Any drug resistance was detected in 50 (19.2%) isolates, and 16 (6.1%) were multidrug-resistant. The most frequent M. tuberculosis lineage was Lineage 3 (CAS/Delhi) with 106 isolates (40.6%), followed by Lineage 2 (East-Asian lineage, includes Beijing genotype) with 84 isolates (32.2%), Lineage 4 (Euro-American lineage) with 41 (15.7%) isolates, and Lineage 1 (Indo-Oceanic lineage) with 30 isolates (11.5%). Based on spoligotyping, we found 45 different spoligotyping patterns that were previously described. The Beijing (83 isolates, 31.8%) and CAS spoligotype (52, 19.9%) were the dominant spoligotypes. A total of 36 (13.8%) isolates could not be assigned to any known spoligotyping pattern. Lineage 2 was associated with female sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.58, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.42–4.67, p = 0.002), and any drug resistance (aOR 2.79; 95% CI 1.43–5.45; p = 0.002). We found no evidence for an association of Lineage 2 with age or BCG vaccination status. Conclusions We found a large genetic diversity of M. tuberculosis in Nepal with representation of all four major lineages. Lineages 3 and 2 were dominating. Lineage 2 was associated with clinical characteristics. This study fills an important gap on the map of the M. tuberculosis genetic diversity in the Asian region.

North-south palaeohydrological contrasts in the central Mediterranean during the Holocene: tentative synthesis and working hypotheses

On the basis of a multi-proxy approach and a strategy combining lacustrine and marine records along a north–south transect, data collected in the central Mediterranean within the framework of a collaborative project have led to reconstruction of high-resolution and well-dated palaeohydrological records and to assessment of their spatial and temporal coherency. Contrasting patterns of palaeohydrological changes have been evidenced in the central Mediterranean: south (north) of around 40° N of latitude, the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by lake-level maxima (minima), during an interval dated to ca. 10 300–4500 cal BP to the south and 9000–4500 cal BP to the north. Available data suggest that these contrasting palaeohydrological patterns operated throughout the Holocene, both on millennial and centennial scales. Regarding precipitation seasonality, maximum humidity in the central Mediterranean during the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by humid winters and dry summers north of ca. 40° N, and humid winters and summers south of ca. 40° N. This may explain an apparent conflict between palaeoclimatic records depending on the proxies used for reconstruction as well as the synchronous expansion of tree species taxa with contrasting climatic requirements. In addition, south of ca. 40° N, the first millennium of the Holocene was characterised by very dry climatic conditions not only in the eastern, but also in the central- and the western Mediterranean zones as reflected by low lake levels and delayed reforestation. These results suggest that, in addition to the influence of the Nile discharge reinforced by the African monsoon, the deposition of Sapropel 1 has been favoured (1) by an increase in winter precipitation in the northern Mediterranean borderlands, and (2) by an increase in winter and summer precipitation in the southern Mediterranean area. The climate reversal following the Holocene climate optimum appears to have been punctuated by two major climate changes around 7500 and 4500 cal BP. In the central Mediterranean, the Holocene palaeohydrological changes developed in response to a combination of orbital, ice-sheet and solar forcing factors. The maximum humidity interval in the south-central Mediterranean started ca. 10 300 cal BP, in correlation with the decline (1) of the possible blocking effects of the North Atlantic anticyclone linked to maximum insolation, and/or (2) of the influence of the remnant ice sheets and fresh water forcing in the North Atlantic Ocean. In the north-central Mediterranean, the lake-level minimum interval began only around 9000 cal BP when the Fennoscandian ice sheet disappeared and a prevailing positive NAO-(North Atlantic Oscillation) type circulation developed in the North Atlantic area. The major palaeohydrological oscillation around 4500–4000 cal BP may be a non-linear response to the gradual decrease in insolation, with additional key seasonal and interhemispheric changes. On a centennial scale, the successive climatic events which punctuated the entire Holocene in the central Mediterranean coincided with cooling events associated with deglacial outbursts in the North Atlantic area and decreases in solar activity during the interval 11 700–7000 cal BP, and to a possible combination of NAO-type circulation and solar forcing since ca. 7000 cal BP onwards. Thus, regarding the centennial-scale climatic oscillations, the Mediterranean Basin appears to have been strongly linked to the North Atlantic area and affected by solar activity over the entire Holocene. In addition to model experiments, a better understanding of forcing factors and past atmospheric circulation patterns behind the Holocene palaeohydrological changes in the Mediterranean area will require further investigation to establish additional high-resolution and well-dated records in selected locations around the Mediterranean Basin and in adjacent regions. Special attention should be paid to greater precision in the reconstruction, on millennial and centennial timescales, of changes in the latitudinal location of the limit between the northern and southern palaeohydrological Mediterranean sectors, depending on (1) the intensity and/or characteristics of climatic periods/oscillations (e.g. Holocene thermal maximum versus Neoglacial, as well as, for instance, the 8.2 ka event versus the 4 ka event or the Little Ice Age); and (2) on varying geographical conditions from the western to the eastern Mediterranean areas (longitudinal gradients). Finally, on the basis of projects using strategically located study sites, there is a need to explore possible influences of other general atmospheric circulation patterns than NAO, such as the East Atlantic–West Russian or North Sea–Caspian patterns, in explaining the apparent complexity of palaeoclimatic (palaeohydrological) Holocene records from the Mediterranean area.