953 resultados para Temporal evolution


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A number of essential elements closely related to each other are involved in the Earth's climatic system. The temporal and spatial distribution of insolation determines wind patterns and the ocean's thermohaline pump. In turn, these last two are directly linked to the extension and retreat of marine and continental ice and to the chemistry of the atmosphere and the ocean. The variability of these elements may trigger, amplify, sustain or globalize rapid climatic changes. Paleoclimatic oscillations have been identified in this thesis by using fossil organic compounds synthesized by marine and terrestrial flora. High sedimentation rate deposits at the Barents and the Iberian peninsula continental margins were chosen in order to estimate the climatic changes on centennial time resolution. At the Barents margin, the sediment recovered was up to 15,000 years old (unit ''a'', from latin ''annos'') (M23258; west of the Bjørnøya island). At the Iberian margin, the sediment cores studied covered a wide range of time spans: up to 115,000 a (MD99-2343; north of the Minorca island), up to 250,000 a (ODP-977A; Alboran basin) and up to 420,000 a (MD01-2442, MD01-2443, MD01-2444, MD01-2445; close to the Tagus abyssal plain). At the northern site, inputs containing marine, continental and ancient reworked organic matter provided a detailed reconstruction of climate history at the time of the final retreat of the Barents ice sheet. At the western Barents continental slope, warm climatic conditions were observed during the early Holocene (~from 8,650 a to 5,240 a ago); in contrast, an apparent long-term cooling trend occurred in the late Holocene (~from 5,240 a to 760 a ago), in consistence with other paleoarchives from northern and southern European latitudes. The Iberian margin sites, which were never covered with large ice sheets, preserved exceptionally complete sequences of rapid events during ice ages hitherto not studied in such great detail: during the last glacial (~from 70,900 a to 11,800 a ago), the second glacial (~from 189,300 a to 127,500 a ago), the third ice age (~from 278,600 a to 244,800 a ago) and the fourth (~from 376,300 a to 337,500 a ago). In this thesis, crucial research questions were brought up concerning the severity of different glacial periods, the intensity and rates of the recorded oscillations and the long distance connections related to rapid climate change. The data obtained provide a sound basis to further research on the mechanisms involved in this rapid climate variability. An essential point of the research was the evidence that, over the past 420,000 a, at the whole Iberian margin, warm and stable long periods similar to the Holocene always ended abruptly in few centuries after a gradual deterioration of climate conditions. The detailed estimate of past climate variability provides clues to the natural end of the present warm period. Returning to an ice age in European lands would be exacerbated by a number of factors: a lack of differential solar heating between northern and southern north Atlantic latitudes, enhanced evaporation at low latitudes, and an increase in snowfall or iceberg discharges at northern regions. It must be emphasized that all climatic oscillations observed in this thesis were caused by forces of nature, i.e. the last two centuries were not taken into consideration.

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Improving the representation of the hydrological cycle in Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) is one of the main challenges in modeling the Earth's climate system. One way to evaluate model performance is to simulate the transport of water isotopes. Among those available, tritium (HTO) is an extremely valuable tracer, because its content in the different reservoirs involved in the water cycle (stratosphere, troposphere, ocean) varies by order of magnitude. Previous work incorporated natural tritium into LMDZ-iso, a version of the LMDZ general circulation model enhanced by water isotope diagnostics. Here for the first time, the anthropogenic tritium injected by each of the atmospheric nuclear-bomb tests between 1945 and 1980 has been first estimated and further implemented in the model; it creates an opportunity to evaluate certain aspects of LDMZ over several decades by following the bomb-tritium transient signal through the hydrological cycle. Simulations of tritium in water vapor and precipitation for the period 1950-2008, with both natural and anthropogenic components, are presented in this study. LMDZ-iso satisfactorily reproduces the general shape of the temporal evolution of tritium. However, LMDZ-iso simulates too high a bomb-tritium peak followed by too strong a decrease of tritium in precipitation. The too diffusive vertical advection in AGCMs crucially affects the residence time of tritium in the stratosphere. This insight into model performance demonstrates that the implementation of tritium in an AGCM provides a new and valuable test of the modeled atmospheric transport, complementing water stable isotope modeling.

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During the last deglaciation, the opposing patterns of atmospheric CO2 and radiocarbon activities (D14C) suggest the release of 14C-depleted CO2 from old carbon reservoirs. Although evidences point to the deep Pacific as a major reservoir of this 14C-depleted carbon, its extent and evolution still need to be constrained. Here we use sediment cores retrieved along a South Pacific transect to reconstruct the spatio-temporal evolution of D14C over the last 30,000 years. In ~2,500-3,600 m water depth, we find 14C-depleted deep waters with a maximum glacial offset to atmospheric 14C (DD14C = -1,000 per mil). Using a box model, we test the hypothesis that these low values might have been caused by an interaction of aging and hydrothermal CO2 influx. We observe a rejuvenation of circumpolar deep waters synchronous and potentially contributing to the initial deglacial rise in atmospheric CO2. These findings constrain parts of the glacial carbon pool to the deep South Pacific.

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Dissolution of non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) or gases into groundwater is a key process, both for contamination problems originating from organic liquid sources, and for dissolution trapping in geological storage of CO2. Dissolution in natural systems typically will involve both high and low NAPL saturations and a wide range of pore water flow velocities within the same source zone for dissolution to groundwater. To correctly predict dissolution in such complex systems and as the NAPL saturations change over time, models must be capable of predicting dissolution under a range of saturations and flow conditions. To provide data to test and validate such models, an experiment was conducted in a two-dimensional sand tank, where the dissolution of a spatially variable, 5x5 cm**2 DNAPL tetrachloroethene source was carefully measured using x-ray attenuation techniques at a resolution of 0.2x0.2 cm**2. By continuously measuring the NAPL saturations, the temporal evolution of DNAPL mass loss by dissolution to groundwater could be measured at each pixel. Next, a general dissolution and solute transport code was written and several published rate-limited (RL) dissolution models and a local equilibrium (LE) approach were tested against the experimental data. It was found that none of the models could adequately predict the observed dissolution pattern, particularly in the zones of higher NAPL saturation. Combining these models with a model for NAPL pool dissolution produced qualitatively better agreement with experimental data, but the total matching error was not significantly improved. A sensitivity study of commonly used fitting parameters further showed that several combinations of these parameters could produce equally good fits to the experimental observations. The results indicate that common empirical model formulations for RL dissolution may be inadequate in complex, variable saturation NAPL source zones, and that further model developments and testing is desirable.

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Recrystallization processes in marine sediments can alter the extent to which biogenic calcite composition serves as a proxy of oceanic chemical and isotopic history. Models of calcite recrystallization developed to date have resulted in significant insights into these processes, but are not completely adequate to describe the conditions of recrystallization. Marine sediments frequently have concentration gradients in interstitial dissolved calcium, magnesium, and strontium which have probably evolved during sediment accumulation. Realistic, albeit simplified, models of the temporal evolution of interstitial water profiles of Ca, Mg, and Sr were used with several patterns of recrystallization rate variation to predict the composition of recrystallized inorganic calcite. Comparison of predictions with measured Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios in severely altered calcite samples from several Deep Sea Drilling Project sites demonstrates that models incorporating temporal variation in interstitial water composition more successfully predict observed calcite compositions than do models which rely solely on present-day interstitial water chemistry. Temporal changes in interstitial composition are particularly important in interpreting Mg/Ca ratios in conjunction with Sr/Ca ratios. Estimates of Mg distribution coefficients from previous observations in marine sediments, much lower than those in laboratory studies of inorganic calcite, are confirmed by these results. Evaluation of the effects of diagenetic alteration of biogenic calcium carbonate sediment must be a site-specific process, taking into account accumulation history, present interstitial chemistry and its variation in the past, and sample depths and ages.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

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A structural time series model is one which is set up in terms of components which have a direct interpretation. In this paper, the discussion focuses on the dynamic modeling procedure based on the state space approach (associated to the Kalman filter), in the context of surface water quality monitoring, in order to analyze and evaluate the temporal evolution of the environmental variables, and thus identify trends or possible changes in water quality (change point detection). The approach is applied to environmental time series: time series of surface water quality variables in a river basin. The statistical modeling procedure is applied to monthly values of physico- chemical variables measured in a network of 8 water monitoring sites over a 15-year period (1999-2014) in the River Ave hydrological basin located in the Northwest region of Portugal.

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While humans can easily segregate and track a speaker's voice in a loud noisy environment, most modern speech recognition systems still perform poorly in loud background noise. The computational principles behind auditory source segregation in humans is not yet fully understood. In this dissertation, we develop a computational model for source segregation inspired by auditory processing in the brain. To support the key principles behind the computational model, we conduct a series of electro-encephalography experiments using both simple tone-based stimuli and more natural speech stimulus. Most source segregation algorithms utilize some form of prior information about the target speaker or use more than one simultaneous recording of the noisy speech mixtures. Other methods develop models on the noise characteristics. Source segregation of simultaneous speech mixtures with a single microphone recording and no knowledge of the target speaker is still a challenge. Using the principle of temporal coherence, we develop a novel computational model that exploits the difference in the temporal evolution of features that belong to different sources to perform unsupervised monaural source segregation. While using no prior information about the target speaker, this method can gracefully incorporate knowledge about the target speaker to further enhance the segregation.Through a series of EEG experiments we collect neurological evidence to support the principle behind the model. Aside from its unusual structure and computational innovations, the proposed model provides testable hypotheses of the physiological mechanisms of the remarkable perceptual ability of humans to segregate acoustic sources, and of its psychophysical manifestations in navigating complex sensory environments. Results from EEG experiments provide further insights into the assumptions behind the model and provide motivation for future single unit studies that can provide more direct evidence for the principle of temporal coherence.

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Adult anchovies in the Bay of Biscay perform north to south migration from late winter to early summer for spawning. However, what triggers and drives the geographic shift of the population remains unclear and poorly understood. An individual-based fish model has been implemented to explore the potential mechanisms that control anchovy's movement routes toward its spawning habitats. To achieve this goal, two fish movement behaviors – gradient detection through restricted area search and kinesis – simulated fish response to its dynamic environment. A bioenergetics model was used to represent individual growth and reproduction along the fish trajectory. The environmental forcing (food, temperature) of the model was provided by a coupled physical–biogeochemical model. We followed a hypothesis-testing strategy to actualize a series of simulations using different cues and computational assumptions. The gradient detection behavior was found as the most suitable mechanism to recreate the observed shift of anchovy distribution under the combined effect of sea-surface temperature and zooplankton. In addition, our results suggested that southward movement occurred more actively from early April to middle May following favorably the spatio-temporal evolution of zooplankton and temperature. In terms of fish bioenergetics, individuals who ended up in the southern part of the bay presented better condition based on energy content, proposing the resulting energy gain as an ecological explanation for this migration. The kinesis approach resulted in a moderate performance, producing distribution pattern with the highest spread. Finally, model performance was not significantly affected by changes on the starting date, initial fish distribution and number of particles used in the simulations, whereas it was drastically influenced by the adopted cues.

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O presente trabalho tem como principal objectivo a avaliação do sujamento da superfície de transferência de calor do evaporador de uma bomba de calor, quando se utiliza o efluente da fábrica de pasta e papel da Portucel Soporcel em Cacia como fluido de aquecimento. Para a realização deste estudo montou-se uma instalação, composta por uma bomba de calor, um circuito de água de arrefecimento do condensador da bomba de calor e um circuito de água residual quente para o aquecimento do evaporador da bomba de calor. O ensaio decorreu durante um período de 84 dias, durante o qual foram registadas as temperaturas em vários pontos dos circuitos e os caudais de circulação. A evolução temporal da quantidade de calor transferida no evaporador, assim como, a comparação do coeficiente global de transferência de calor em condições ideias e experimentais, permitiu verificar que a razão U/U0 para o evaporador da bomba de calor não teve um comportamento decrescente ao longo do período de ensaio, permitindo concluir que, nas condições operatórias da experiência, não ocorreu sujamento na superfície do evaporador. No estudo de corrosão do cobre quando exposto à água residual em questão, obteve-se, para a velocidade de corrosão, o valor de 1,56 mg/(dm2 .dia), indicando assim que a corrosão do cobre naquele meio é praticamente inexistente.

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La determinación en tiempo real de los estados críticos de operación de la pila de combustible de membrana intercambio protónico (siglas en ingles, PEM) es uno de los principales retos para los sistemas de control de pilas de combustible PEM. En este trabajo, se presenta el desarrollo e implementación de un método no invasivo de bajo coste basado en técnicas de decisión borrosa que permite estimar los estados críticos de operación de la pila de combustible PEM. La estimación se realiza mediante perturbaciones al estado de operación de la pila y el análisis posterior de la evolución temporal del voltaje generado por la pila. La implementación de esta técnica de estimulación-percepción de estado de la pila de combustible para la detección de estados críticos constituye una novedad y un paso hacia el control autónomo en óptimas condiciones de la operación de las pilas de combustible PEM.

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O presente Trabalho de Projecto assenta na análise da programação e da evolução espacial e temporal do Festival Internacional de Teatro de Almada, de modo a perceber quais as linhas gerais em que se baseia a sua programação. Procura-se perceber, ao longo do trabalho, de que forma o Festival se ligou à cidade de Almada, contribuindo para a sua evolução ao nível de equipamentos culturais, recuperação urbanística e reestruturação da esfera pública. A par destes assuntos, dá-se conta igualmente da expansão geográfica do Festival de Almada para cidades como Lisboa e Porto, tentando-se perceber o que esteve nas bases da mesma e de que forma o Festival equilibrou esta necessidade de crescimento com a manutenção do vínculo com Almada.

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Dietary studies of marine species constitute an important key to improve the understanding of its biology and of its role in the ecosystem. Thus, prey-predator relationships structure and determine population dynamics and the trophic network at the ecosystem scale. Among the major study sites, the marine ecosystem is submitted to natural and anthropogenic constraints. In the North-Eastern part of the Atlantic Ocean, the Bay of Biscay is a large open area surrounded South by Spain and East by France. This bay is an historic place of intense fishery activities for which the main small pelagic species targeted are the pilchard, Sardina pilchardus and the anchovy, Engraulis encrasicolus. The aim of this work is to analyze the trophic ecology of these two small pelagic fish in spring in the Bay of Biscay. To do this, a first section is devoted to their prey composed by the mesozooplanktonic compartment, through a two-fold approach: the characterization of their spatio-temporal dynamics during the decade 2003-2013 and the measurement of their energetic content in spring. For this season, it appears that all prey types are not worth energetically and that the Bay of Biscay represents a mosaic of dietary habitat. Moreover, the spring mesozooplankton community presents a strong spatial structuration, a temporal evolution marked by a major change in abundance and a control by the microphytoplankton biomass. The second section of this work is relative to a methodological approach of the trophic ecology of S. pilchardus and E. encrasicolus. Three different trophic tracers have been used: isotopic ratios of carbon and nitrogen, parasitological fauna and mercury contamination levels. To improve the use of the first of these trophic tracers, an experimental approach has been conducted with S. pilchardus to determine a trophic discrimination factor. Finally, it appears that the use of these three trophic tracers has always been permitted to highlight a temporal variability of the relative trophic ecology of these fish. However, no spatial dynamics could be identified through these three trophic tracers.

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The post-mortem diagnosis of acute myocardial ischemia remains a challenge for both clinical and forensic pathologists. We performed an experimental study (ligation of left anterior descending coronary artery in rats) in order to identify early markers of myocardial ischemia, to further apply to forensic and clinical pathology in cases of sudden cardiac death. Using immunohistochemistry, Western blots, and gene expression analyses, we investigated a number of markers, selected among those which are currently used in emergency departments to diagnose myocardial infarction and those which are under investigation in basic research and autopsy pathology studies on cardiovascular diseases. The study was performed on 44 adult male Lewis rats, assigned to three experimental groups: control, sham-operated, and operated. The durations of ischemia ranged between 5 min and 24 h. The investigated markers were troponins I and T, myoglobin, fibronectin, C5b-9, connexin 43 (dephosphorylated), JunB, cytochrome c, and TUNEL staining. The earliest expressions (≤30 min) were observed for connexin 43, JunB, and cytochrome c, followed by fibronectin (≤1 h), myoglobin (≤1 h), troponins I and T (≤1 h), TUNEL (≤1 h), and C5b-9 (≤2 h). By this investigation, we identified a panel of true early markers of myocardial ischemia and delineated their temporal evolution in expression by employing new technologies for gene expression analysis, in addition to traditional and routine methods (such as histology and immunohistochemistry). Moreover, for the first time in the autopsy pathology field, we identified, by immunohistochemistry, two very early markers of myocardial ischemia: dephosphorylated connexin 43 and JunB.

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Sea cucumber stocks have been overfished in many countries. As a consequence, several species (Holothuria polii, Holothuria tubulosa and Holothuria mammata) are now caught in Turkish waters without adequate knowledge on their biology and ecology. Here, we address their morphometry, relationships among gutted length and weight, population dynamics, temporal evolution of catches, and we provide the first insights about technical aspects of their fisheries. The largest size classes of H. polii are missing from our sampling collection, possibly due to the heavy fishery pressure on this species. Significant differences in the eviscerated length and weight were found among the Turkish sampled localities for H. polii and H. tubulosa, respectively. These differences could be explained by higher food availability in some areas and/or differential fishery pressure. The size and weight of H. tubulosa specimens were smaller than those registered for the same species in Greek waters, where this species is not fished. All the studied species showed allometric growth. In the last two years, the sea cucumber fishery in Turkey has been increasing rapidly, reaching a total production of ca. 555 000 kg in 2012 (80% H. polii and 20% H. tubulosa plus H. mammata). For a correct management of these species, we recommend: 1) the reestablishment of species-specific closed fishery season according to the specific reproductive cycle; 2) the assessment of the exploited stocks from the Northern Turkish coasts with estimates of recovery time of their populations; 3) the reduction of fishery efforts, mainly on H. polii and H. tubulosa and 4) the establishment of protected areas (where sea cucumber fisheries are forbidden) to conserve healthy populations which will favour the recruitment on nearby areas.