The alcohol purchase task in young men from the general population.

BACKGROUND: The alcohol purchase task (APT), which presents a scenario and asks participants how many drinks they would purchase and consume at different prices, has been used among students and small clinical samples to obtain measures of alcohol demand but not in large, general population samples. METHODS: We administered the APT to a large sample of young men from the general population (Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors). Participants who reported drinking in the past year (n=4790), reported on past 12 months alcohol use, on DSM-5 alcohol use disorder (AUD) criteria and on alcohol related consequences were included. RESULTS: Among the APT's demand parameters, intensity was 8.7 (SD=6.5) indicating that, when drinks are free, participants report a planned consumption of almost 9 drinks. The maximum alcohol expenditure (Omax) was over 35CHF (1CHF=1.1USD) and the demand became elastic (Pmax) at 8.4CHF (SD=5.6). The mean price at which the consumption was suppressed was 15.6CHF (SD=5.4). Exponential equation provided a satisfactory fit to individual responses (mean R(2): 0.8, median: 0.8). Demand intensity was correlated with alcohol use, number of AUD criteria and number of consequences (all r≥0.3, p<0.0001). Omax was correlated with alcohol use (p<0.0001). The elasticity parameter was weakly correlated with alcohol use in the expected direction. CONCLUSION: The APT measures are useful in characterizing demand for alcohol in young men in the general population. Demand may provide a clinically useful index of strength of motivation for alcohol use in general population samples.

Prospective registry of symptomatic severe aortic stenosis in octogenarians: a need for intervention.

OBJECTIVE To study the factors associated with choice of therapy and prognosis in octogenarians with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis (AS). STUDY DESIGN Prospective, observational, multicenter registry. Centralized follow-up included survival status and, if possible, mode of death and Katz index. SETTING Transnational registry in Spain. SUBJECTS We included 928 patients aged ≥80 years with severe symptomatic AS. INTERVENTIONS Aortic-valve replacement (AVR), transcatheter aortic-valve implantation (TAVI) or conservative therapy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES All-cause death. RESULTS Mean age was 84.2 ± 3.5 years, and only 49.0% were independent (Katz index A). The most frequent planned management was conservative therapy in 423 (46%) patients, followed by TAVI in 261 (28%) and AVR in 244 (26%). The main reason against recommending AVR in 684 patients was high surgical risk [322 (47.1%)], other medical motives [193 (28.2%)], patient refusal [134 (19.6%)] and family refusal in the case of incompetent patients [35 (5.1%)]. The mean time from treatment decision to AVR was 4.8 ± 4.6 months and to TAVI 2.1 ± 3.2 months, P < 0.001. During follow-up (11.2-38.9 months), 357 patients (38.5%) died. Survival rates at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months were 81.8%, 72.6%, 64.1% and 57.3%, respectively. Planned intervention, adjusted for multiple propensity score, was associated with lower mortality when compared with planned conservative treatment: TAVI Hazard ratio (HR) 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.49-0.93; P = 0.016) and AVR HR 0.56 (95% CI 0.39-0.8; P = 0.002). CONCLUSION Octogenarians with symptomatic severe AS are frequently managed conservatively. Planned conservative management is associated with a poor prognosis.

Bayesian nash equilibrium in ''linear'' cournot models with private information about costs

Calculating explicit closed form solutions of Cournot models where firms have private information about their costs is, in general, very cumbersome. Most authors consider therefore linear demands and constant marginal costs. However, within this framework, the nonnegativity constraint on prices (and quantities) has been ignored or not properly dealt with and the correct calculation of all Bayesian Nash equilibria is more complicated than expected. Moreover, multiple symmetric and interior Bayesianf equilibria may exist for an open set of parameters. The reason for this is that linear demand is not really linear, since there is a kink at zero price: the general ''linear'' inverse demand function is P (Q) = max{a - bQ, 0} rather than P (Q) = a - bQ.

Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of geophysical data for the purpose of estimating the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) has the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties of the vadose zone because of their strong sensitivity to soil water content. In particular, recent evidence has suggested that the stochastic inversion of crosshole GPR data within a coupled geophysical-hydrological framework may allow for effective estimation of subsurface van-Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. An important and still unresolved issue, however, is how to best integrate GPR data into a stochastic inversion in order to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first introduce a fully Bayesian inversion called Markov-chain-Monte-carlo (MCMC) strategy to perform the stochastic inversion of steady-state GPR data to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties. Within this study, the choice of the prior parameter probability distributions from which potential model configurations are drawn and tested against observed data was also investigated. Analysis of both synthetic and field data collected at the Eggborough (UK) site indicates that the geophysical data alone contain valuable information regarding the VGM parameters. However, significantly better results are obtained when these data are combined with a realistic, informative prior. A subsequent study explore in detail the dynamic infiltration case, specifically to what extent time-lapse ZOP GPR data, collected during a forced infiltration experiment at the Arrenaes field site (Denmark), can help to quantify VGM parameters and their uncertainties using the MCMC inversion strategy. The findings indicate that the stochastic inversion of time-lapse GPR data does indeed allow for a substantial refinement in the inferred posterior VGM parameter distributions. In turn, this significantly improves knowledge of the hydraulic properties, which are required to predict hydraulic behaviour. Finally, another aspect that needed to be addressed involved the comparison of time-lapse GPR data collected under different infiltration conditions (i.e., natural loading and forced infiltration conditions) to estimate the VGM parameters using the MCMC inversion strategy. The results show that for the synthetic example, considering data collected during a forced infiltration test helps to better refine soil hydraulic properties compared to data collected under natural infiltration conditions. When investigating data collected at the Arrenaes field site, further complications arised due to model error and showed the importance of also including a rigorous analysis of the propagation of model error with time and depth when considering time-lapse data. Although the efforts in this thesis were focused on GPR data, the corresponding findings are likely to have general applicability to other types of geophysical data and field environments. Moreover, the obtained results allow to have confidence for future developments in integration of geophysical data with stochastic inversions to improve the characterization of the unsaturated zone but also reveal important issues linked with stochastic inversions, namely model errors, that should definitely be addressed in future research.

Influence of preoperative leg pain and radiculopathy on outcomes in mono-segmental lumbar total disc replacement: results from a nationwide registry.

PURPOSE: Currently, many pre-conditions are regarded as relative or absolute contraindications for lumbar total disc replacement (TDR). Radiculopathy is one among them. In Switzerland it is left to the surgeon's discretion when to operate if he adheres to a list of pre-defined indications. Contraindications, however, are less clearly specified. We hypothesized that, the extent of pre-operative radiculopathy results in different benefits for patients treated with mono-segmental lumbar TDR. We used patient perceived leg pain and its correlation with physician recorded radiculopathy for creating the patient groups to be compared. METHODS: The present study is based on the dataset of SWISSspine, a government mandated health technology assessment registry. Between March 2005 and April 2009, 577 patients underwent either mono- or bi-segmental lumbar TDR, which was documented in a prospective observational multicenter mode. A total of 416 cases with a mono-segmental procedure were included in the study. The data collection consisted of pre-operative and follow-up data (physician based) and clinical outcomes (NASS form, EQ-5D). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted with patients' self-indicated leg pain and the surgeon-based diagnosis "radiculopathy", as marked on the case report forms. As a result, patients were divided into two groups according to the severity of leg pain. The two groups were compared with regard to the pre-operative patient characteristics and pre- and post-operative pain on Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) and quality of life using general linear modeling. RESULTS: The optimal ROC model revealed a leg pain threshold of 40 ≤ VAS > 40 for the absence or the presence of "radiculopathy". Demographics in the resulting two groups were well comparable. Applying this threshold, the mean pre-operative leg pain level was 16.5 points in group 1 and 68.1 points in group 2 (p < 0.001). Back pain levels differed less with 63.6 points in group 1 and 72.6 in group 2 (p < 0.001). Pre-operative quality of life showed considerable differences with an 0.44 EQ-5D score in group 1 and 0.29 in group 2 (p < 0.001, possible score range -0.6 to 1). At a mean follow-up time of 8 months, group 1 showed a mean leg pain improvement of 3.6 points and group 2 of 41.1 points (p < 0.001). Back pain relief was 35.6 and 39.1 points, respectively (p = 0.27). EQ-5D score improvement was 0.27 in group 1 and 0.41 in group 2 (p = 0.11). CONCLUSIONS: Patients labeled as having radiculopathy (group 2) do mostly have pre-operative leg pain levels ≥ 40. Applying this threshold, the patients with pre-operative leg pain do also have more severe back pain and a considerably lower quality of life. Their net benefit from the lumbar TDR is higher and they do have similar post-operative back and leg pain levels as well as the quality of life as patients without pre-operative leg pain. Although randomized controlled trials are required to confirm these findings, they put leg pain and radiculopathy into perspective as absolute contraindications for TDR.

Knowledge management for systems biology a general and visually driven framework applied to translational medicine

Background: To enhance our understanding of complex biological systems like diseases we need to put all of the available data into context and use this to detect relations, pattern and rules which allow predictive hypotheses to be defined. Life science has become a data rich science with information about the behaviour of millions of entities like genes, chemical compounds, diseases, cell types and organs, which are organised in many different databases and/or spread throughout the literature. Existing knowledge such as genotype - phenotype relations or signal transduction pathways must be semantically integrated and dynamically organised into structured networks that are connected with clinical and experimental data. Different approaches to this challenge exist but so far none has proven entirely satisfactory. Results: To address this challenge we previously developed a generic knowledge management framework, BioXM™, which allows the dynamic, graphic generation of domain specific knowledge representation models based on specific objects and their relations supporting annotations and ontologies. Here we demonstrate the utility of BioXM for knowledge management in systems biology as part of the EU FP6 BioBridge project on translational approaches to chronic diseases. From clinical and experimental data, text-mining results and public databases we generate a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) knowledge base and demonstrate its use by mining specific molecular networks together with integrated clinical and experimental data. Conclusions: We generate the first semantically integrated COPD specific public knowledge base and find that for the integration of clinical and experimental data with pre-existing knowledge the configuration based set-up enabled by BioXM reduced implementation time and effort for the knowledge base compared to similar systems implemented as classical software development projects. The knowledgebase enables the retrieval of sub-networks including protein-protein interaction, pathway, gene - disease and gene - compound data which are used for subsequent data analysis, modelling and simulation. Pre-structured queries and reports enhance usability; establishing their use in everyday clinical settings requires further simplification with a browser based interface which is currently under development.

The Employment Precariousness Scale (EPRES): psychometric properties of a new tool for epidemiological studies among waged and salaried workers

Background: Despite the fact that labour market flexibility has resulted in an expansion of precarious employment in industrialized countries, to date there is limited empirical evidence about its health consequences. The Employment Precariousness Scale (EPRES) is a newly developed, theory-based, multidimensional questionnaire specifically devised for epidemiological studies among waged and salaried workers. Objective: To assess acceptability, reliability and construct validity of EPRES in a sample of waged and salaried workers in Spain. Methods: Cross-sectional study, using a sub-sample of 6.968 temporary and permanent workers from a population-based survey carried out in 2004-2005. The survey questionnaire was interviewer administered and included the six EPRES subscales, measures of the psychosocial work environment (COPSOQ ISTAS21), and perceived general and mental health (SF-36). Results: A high response rate to all EPRES items indicated good acceptability; Cronbach’s alpha coefficients, over 0.70 for all subscales and the global score, demonstrated good internal consistency reliability; exploratory factor analysis using principal axis analysis and varimax rotation confirmed the six-subscale structure and the theoretical allocation of all items. Patterns across known groups and correlation coefficients with psychosocial work environment measures and perceived health demonstrated the expected relations, providing evidence of construct validity. Conclusions: Our results provide evidence in support of the psychometric properties of EPRES, which appears to be a promising tool for the measurement of employment precariousness in public health research.

A genomic analysis identifies a novel component in the genetic structure of sub-Saharan African populations

Studies of large sets of SNP data have proven to be a powerful tool in the analysis of the genetic structure of human populations. In this work, we analyze genotyping data for 2,841 SNPs in 12 Sub-Saharan African populations, including a previously unsampled region of south-eastern Africa (Mozambique). We show that robust results in a world-wide perspective can be obtained when analyzing only 1,000 SNPs. Our main results both confirm the results of previous studies, and show new and interesting features in Sub-Saharan African genetic complexity. There is a strong differentiation of Nilo-Saharans, much beyond what would be expected by geography. Hunter-gatherer populations (Khoisan and Pygmies) show a clear distinctiveness with very intrinsic Pygmy (and not only Khoisan) genetic features. Populations of the West Africa present an unexpected similarity among them, possibly the result of a population expansion. Finally, we find a strong differentiation of the south-eastern Bantu population from Mozambique, which suggests an assimilation of a pre-Bantu substrate by Bantu speakers in the region.

Spotting Translationese in two Corpora of Original and Translated Catalan Texts: an Empirical Approach

This research investigates the phenomenon of translationese in two monolingual comparable corpora of original and translated Catalan texts. Translationese has been defined as the dialect, sub-language or code of translated language. This study aims at giving empirical evidence of translation universals regardless the source language.Traditionally, research conducted on translation strategies has been mainly intuition-based. Computational Linguistics and Natural Language Processing techniques provide reliable information of lexical frequencies, morphological and syntactical distribution in corpora. Therefore, they have been applied to observe which translation strategies occur in these corpora.Results seem to prove the simplification, interference and explicitation hypotheses, whereas no sign of normalization has been detected with the methodology used.The data collected and the resources created for identifying lexical, morphological and syntactic patterns of translations can be useful for Translation Studies teachers, scholars and students: teachers will have more tools to help students avoid the reproduction of translationese patterns. Resources developed will help in detecting non-genuine or inadequate structures in the target language. This fact may imply an improvement in stylistic quality in translations. Translation professionals can also take advantage of these resources to improve their translation quality.

Bayesian networks for evaluating forensic DNA profiling evidence: a review and guide to literature

Almost 30 years ago, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed in the field of artificial intelligence as a framework that should assist researchers and practitioners in applying the theory of probability to inference problems of more substantive size and, thus, to more realistic and practical problems. Since the late 1980s, Bayesian networks have also attracted researchers in forensic science and this tendency has considerably intensified throughout the last decade. This review article provides an overview of the scientific literature that describes research on Bayesian networks as a tool that can be used to study, develop and implement probabilistic procedures for evaluating the probative value of particular items of scientific evidence in forensic science. Primary attention is drawn here to evaluative issues that pertain to forensic DNA profiling evidence because this is one of the main categories of evidence whose assessment has been studied through Bayesian networks. The scope of topics is large and includes almost any aspect that relates to forensic DNA profiling. Typical examples are inference of source (or, 'criminal identification'), relatedness testing, database searching and special trace evidence evaluation (such as mixed DNA stains or stains with low quantities of DNA). The perspective of the review presented here is not exclusively restricted to DNA evidence, but also includes relevant references and discussion on both, the concept of Bayesian networks as well as its general usage in legal sciences as one among several different graphical approaches to evidence evaluation.

The Persistence of Inflation in OECDCountries: a Fractionally Integrated Approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

Neuropathies diabétiques: tableaux cliniques, détection précoce et appel au spécialiste [Diabetic neuropathies: clinical sub-types, early detection and asking help from the specialist].

In diabetes mellitus, it is expected to see a common, mainly sensitive, distal symmetrical polyneuropathy (DPN) involving a large proportion of diabetic patients according to known risk factors. Several other diabetic peripheral neuropathies are recognized, such as dysautonomia and multifocal neuropathies including lumbosacral radiculoplexus and oculomotor palsies. In this review, general aspects of diabetic neuropathies are examined, and it is discussed why and how the general practionner has to perform a yearly examination. At the present time, some consensuses emerge to ask help from the specialist when faced to other forms of peripheral neuropathies than distal symmetrical DPN.

A general class of adaptative strategies

We exhibit and characterize an entire class of simple adaptive strategies,in the repeated play of a game, having the Hannan-consistency property: In the long-run, the player is guaranteed an average payoff as large as the best-reply payoff to the empirical distribution of play of the otherplayers; i.e., there is no "regret." Smooth fictitious play (Fudenberg and Levine [1995]) and regret-matching (Hart and Mas-Colell [1998]) areparticular cases. The motivation and application of this work come from the study of procedures whose empirical distribution of play is, in thelong-run, (almost) a correlated equilibrium. The basic tool for the analysis is a generalization of Blackwell's [1956a] approachability strategy for games with vector payoffs.

Catalan government popularity. An example of economic effects on sub-national government support

The aim of this essay is to deal with economic voting in contexts ofmultilevel governance and to be a contribution to the debate on attribution of responsibilities in popularity functions literature. We use aggregate and individual data from Catalonia in order to analyse the relation between the state of the economy and the support for a sub-state government. The empirical analysis shows that the responsibility hypothesis works in regional governments without explicit macroeconomic competencies. We have also considered the evaluations of government performance on certain specific policies in order to clarify and determine the factors that drive Catalan government support. The article considers the implications of the findings for future attempts to model party support in a context of the European Union.

The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.