Reallocation of resources between the tradable and non-tradable sector in Portugal: Assessing the degree of structural transformation in the Portuguese economy

Portugal implemented a large number of structural reforms in the recent years, which are expected to enhance the allocation of resources in the economy, namely from the non-tradable to tradable sector. We argue that the methodology to identify the tradable sector used by some international institutions is outdated and may hamper an accurate assessment of the progress achieved so far. Based on an enhanced methodology to identify the tradable sector, we are able to provide a more accurate, clearer picture of the recent structural developments of the Portuguese economy.

Experimental and numerical approaches for structural assessment in new footbridge designs (SFRSCC–GFPR hybrid structure)

Within the civil engineering field, the use of the Finite Element Method has acquired a significant importance, since numerical simulations have been employed in a broad field, which encloses the design, analysis and prediction of the structural behaviour of constructions and infrastructures. Nevertheless, these mathematical simulations can only be useful if all the mechanical properties of the materials, boundary conditions and damages are properly modelled. Therefore, it is required not only experimental data (static and/or dynamic tests) to provide references parameters, but also robust calibration methods able to model damage or other special structural conditions. The present paper addresses the model calibration of a footbridge bridge tested with static loads and ambient vibrations. Damage assessment was also carried out based on a hybrid numerical procedure, which combines discrete damage functions with sets of piecewise linear damage functions. Results from the model calibration shows that the model reproduces with good accuracy the experimental behaviour of the bridge.

Politically driven cycles in fiscal policy: in depth analysis of the functional components of government expenditures

NIPE - WP 02/2016

Nuclear Weapons as Symbols. The Role of Norms in Nuclear Policy Making

Throughout history, nuclear weapons have been considered to be the ultimate weapons. This understanding largely detached them from the portfolio of conventional military means and assigned them a symbolic meaning that influenced the identity and norms creation of nations. In most countries today, the development of nuclear weapons is considered morally prohibitive, incompatible with a country’s identity and international outlook. In some states, however, these negative norms are overridden by a positive set of norms, causing nuclear weapons to become either symbols of invulnerability to perceived threats or the regalia of major power status. Main purpose of this paper is to explore on the conditions that cause most states to develop a moral aversion to nuclear weapons, yet effectively lead to their glorification in others. Many studies on the normative understanding of nuclear weapons consider the existence of a negative normative predisposition, often referred to as ‘nuclear taboo’, as a major factor in preventing their acquisition and use. Other studies acknowledge the existence of a nuclear taboo inhibiting the use of nuclear weapons, but point to the existence of the opposing effect of norms, frequently referred to as the ‘nuclear myth’, when it comes to the acquisition of nuclear weapons. This myth emerges when certain symbolic meanings are attached to nuclear weapons, such as a state’s identity, self-image, and its desired position in the international system. With 180 odd countries in the world abstaining from the acquisition of nuclear weapons and 8 countries in possession of them (with two further countries assumed to have pursued their acquisition), one might consider the dominance of the nuclear taboo over the nuclear myth to be the rule. The core question is thus why and how this relationship reversed in the case of defectors.

Rare genomic structural variants in complex disease: lessons from the replication of associations with obesity.

The limited ability of common variants to account for the genetic contribution to complex disease has prompted searches for rare variants of large effect, to partly explain the 'missing heritability'. Analyses of genome-wide genotyping data have identified genomic structural variants (GSVs) as a source of such rare causal variants. Recent studies have reported multiple GSV loci associated with risk of obesity. We attempted to replicate these associations by similar analysis of two familial-obesity case-control cohorts and a population cohort, and detected GSVs at 11 out of 18 loci, at frequencies similar to those previously reported. Based on their reported frequencies and effect sizes (OR≥25), we had sufficient statistical power to detect the large majority (80%) of genuine associations at these loci. However, only one obesity association was replicated. Deletion of a 220 kb region on chromosome 16p11.2 has a carrier population frequency of 2×10(-4) (95% confidence interval [9.6×10(-5)-3.1×10(-4)]); accounts overall for 0.5% [0.19%-0.82%] of severe childhood obesity cases (P = 3.8×10(-10); odds ratio = 25.0 [9.9-60.6]); and results in a mean body mass index (BMI) increase of 5.8 kg.m(-2) [1.8-10.3] in adults from the general population. We also attempted replication using BMI as a quantitative trait in our population cohort; associations with BMI at or near nominal significance were detected at two further loci near KIF2B and within FOXP2, but these did not survive correction for multiple testing. These findings emphasise several issues of importance when conducting rare GSV association, including the need for careful cohort selection and replication strategy, accurate GSV identification, and appropriate correction for multiple testing and/or control of false discovery rate. Moreover, they highlight the potential difficulty in replicating rare CNV associations across different populations. Nevertheless, we show that such studies are potentially valuable for the identification of variants making an appreciable contribution to complex disease.

Structural Breaks in the Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rate Relationship

In this paper we empirically examine the relationship between the real exchange rate and real interest rate differentials using recent econometric methods robust to potential structural breaks. Generally, our study provides evidence of this relationship in the long-run context. More specifically, we first focus on the UK-US relationship, and interestingly find limited evidence of this long-run relationship using traditional methods. But when an approach robust to endogenously determined structural breaks is employed, we find evidence that the real interest rate differential is an important determinant of the real exchange rate. Secondly, in order to investigate the relevance of structural shifts in a more global context, we carry out multiple country analysis. While providing evidence of this long-run relationship, European data suggest that the presence of structural breaks is not very common across countries and is indeed country-specific.

Growth Rate Estimation in the presence of Unit Roots

This study addresses the issue of the presence of a unit root on the growth rate estimation by the least-squares approach. We argue that when the log of a variable contains a unit root, i.e., it is not stationary then the growth rate estimate from the log-linear trend model is not a valid representation of the actual growth of the series. In fact, under such a situation, we show that the growth of the series is the cumulative impact of a stochastic process. As such the growth estimate from such a model is just a spurious representation of the actual growth of the series, which we refer to as a “pseudo growth rate”. Hence such an estimate should be interpreted with caution. On the other hand, we highlight that the statistical representation of a series as containing a unit root is not easy to separate from an alternative description which represents the series as fundamentally deterministic (no unit root) but containing a structural break. In search of a way around this, our study presents a survey of both the theoretical and empirical literature on unit root tests that takes into account possible structural breaks. We show that when a series is trendstationary with breaks, it is possible to use the log-linear trend model to obtain well defined estimates of growth rates for sub-periods which are valid representations of the actual growth of the series. Finally, to highlight the above issues, we carry out an empirical application whereby we estimate meaningful growth rates of real wages per worker for 51 industries from the organised manufacturing sector in India for the period 1973-2003, which are not only unbiased but also asymptotically efficient. We use these growth rate estimates to highlight the evolving inter-industry wage structure in India.

Arch and Structural Breaks in United States Inflation

United States Phillips curves are routinely estimated without accounting for the shifts in mean inflation. As a result we may expect the standard estimates of Phillips curves to be biased and suffer from ARCH. We demonstrate this is indeed the case. We also demonstrate that once the shifts in mean inflation are accounted for the ARCH is largely eliminated in the estimated model and the model defining expected rate of inflation in the New Keynesian model plays no significant role in the dynamics of inflation.

Imaging of experience-dependent structural plasticity in the mouse neocortex in vivo

The functionality of adult neocortical circuits can be altered by novel experiences or learning. This functional plasticity appears to rely on changes in the strength of neuronal connections that were established during development. Here we will describe some of our studies in which we have addressed whether structural changes, including the remodeling of axons and dendrites with synapse formation and elimination, could underlie experience-dependent plasticity in the adult neocortex. Using 2-photon laser-scanning microscopes and transgenic mice expressing GFP in a subset of pyramidal cells, we have observed that a small subset of dendritic spines continuously appear and disappear on a daily basis, whereas the majority of spines persists for months. Axonal boutons from different neuronal classes displayed similar behavior, although the extent of remodeling varied. Under baseline conditions, new spines in the barrel cortex were mostly transient and rarely survived for more than a week. However, when every other whisker was trimmed, the generation and loss of persistent spines was enhanced. Ultrastructural reconstruction of previously imaged spines and boutons showed that new spines slowly form synapses. New spines persisting for a few days always had synapses, whereas very young spines often lacked synapses. New synapses were predominantly found on large, multi-synapse boutons, suggesting that spine growth is followed by synapse formation, preferentially on existing boutons. Altogether our data indicate that novel sensory experience drives the stabilization of new spines on subclasses of cortical neurons and promotes the formation of new synapses. These synaptic changes likely underlie experience-dependent functional remodeling of specific neocortical circuits.

Neuropathological substrates and structural changes in late-life depression: the impact of vascular burden.

A first episode of depression after 65 years of age has long been associated with both severe macrovascular and small microvascular pathology. Among the three more frequent forms of depression in old age, post-stroke depression has been associated with an abrupt damage of cortical circuits involved in monoamine production and mood regulation. Late-onset depression (LOD) in the absence of stroke has been related to lacunes and white matter lesions that invade both the neocortex and subcortical nuclei. Recurrent late-life depression is thought to induce neuronal loss in the hippocampal formation and white matter lesions that affect limbic pathways. Despite an impressive number of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies in this field, the presence of a causal relationship between structural changes in the human brain and LOD is still controversial. The present article provides a critical overview of the contribution of neuropathology in post-stroke, late-onset, and late-life recurrent depression. Recent autopsy findings challenge the role of stroke location in the occurrence of post-stroke depression by pointing to the deleterious effect of subcortical lacunes. Despite the lines of evidences supporting the association between MRI-assessed white matter changes and mood dysregulation, lacunes, periventricular and deep white matter demyelination are all unrelated to the occurrence of LOD. In the same line, neuropathological data show that early-onset depression is not associated with an acceleration of aging-related neurodegenerative changes in the human brain. However, they also provide data in favor of the neurotoxic theory of depression by showing that neuronal loss occurs in the hippocampus of chronically depressed patients. These three paradigms are discussed in the light of the complex relationships between psychosocial determinants and biological vulnerability in affective disorders.

White matter maturation reshapes structural connectivity in the late developing human brain.

From toddler to late teenager, the macroscopic pattern of axonal projections in the human brain remains largely unchanged while undergoing dramatic functional modifications that lead to network refinement. These functional modifications are mediated by increasing myelination and changes in axonal diameter and synaptic density, as well as changes in neurochemical mediators. Here we explore the contribution of white matter maturation to the development of connectivity between ages 2 and 18 y using high b-value diffusion MRI tractography and connectivity analysis. We measured changes in connection efficacy as the inverse of the average diffusivity along a fiber tract. We observed significant refinement in specific metrics of network topology, including a significant increase in node strength and efficiency along with a decrease in clustering. Major structural modules and hubs were in place by 2 y of age, and they continued to strengthen their profile during subsequent development. Recording resting-state functional MRI from a subset of subjects, we confirmed a positive correlation between structural and functional connectivity, and in addition observed that this relationship strengthened with age. Continuously increasing integration and decreasing segregation of structural connectivity with age suggests that network refinement mediated by white matter maturation promotes increased global efficiency. In addition, the strengthening of the correlation between structural and functional connectivity with age suggests that white matter connectivity in combination with other factors, such as differential modulation of axonal diameter and myelin thickness, that are partially captured by inverse average diffusivity, play an increasingly important role in creating brain-wide coherence and synchrony.

Monetary policy rules and financial stress: does financial instability matter for monetary

We examine whether and how main central banks responded to episodes of financial stress over the last three decades. We employ a new methodology for monetary policy rules estimation, which allows for time-varying response coefficients as well as corrects for endogeneity. This flexible framework applied to the U.S., U.K., Australia, Canada and Sweden together with a new financial stress dataset developed by the International Monetary Fund allows not only testing whether the central banks responded to financial stress but also detects the periods and type of stress that were the most worrying for monetary authorities and to quantify the intensity of policy response. Our findings suggest that central banks often change policy