Spatiotemporal analysis of multichannel EEG: CARTOOL.

This paper describes methods to analyze the brain's electric fields recorded with multichannel Electroencephalogram (EEG) and demonstrates their implementation in the software CARTOOL. It focuses on the analysis of the spatial properties of these fields and on quantitative assessment of changes of field topographies across time, experimental conditions, or populations. Topographic analyses are advantageous because they are reference independents and thus render statistically unambiguous results. Neurophysiologically, differences in topography directly indicate changes in the configuration of the active neuronal sources in the brain. We describe global measures of field strength and field similarities, temporal segmentation based on topographic variations, topographic analysis in the frequency domain, topographic statistical analysis, and source imaging based on distributed inverse solutions. All analysis methods are implemented in a freely available academic software package called CARTOOL. Besides providing these analysis tools, CARTOOL is particularly designed to visualize the data and the analysis results using 3-dimensional display routines that allow rapid manipulation and animation of 3D images. CARTOOL therefore is a helpful tool for researchers as well as for clinicians to interpret multichannel EEG and evoked potentials in a global, comprehensive, and unambiguous way.

Analysis and spatial modeling of the indoor radon Swiss data

The present research deals with an important public health threat, which is the pollution created by radon gas accumulation inside dwellings. The spatial modeling of indoor radon in Switzerland is particularly complex and challenging because of many influencing factors that should be taken into account. Indoor radon data analysis must be addressed from both a statistical and a spatial point of view. As a multivariate process, it was important at first to define the influence of each factor. In particular, it was important to define the influence of geology as being closely associated to indoor radon. This association was indeed observed for the Swiss data but not probed to be the sole determinant for the spatial modeling. The statistical analysis of data, both at univariate and multivariate level, was followed by an exploratory spatial analysis. Many tools proposed in the literature were tested and adapted, including fractality, declustering and moving windows methods. The use of Quan-tité Morisita Index (QMI) as a procedure to evaluate data clustering in function of the radon level was proposed. The existing methods of declustering were revised and applied in an attempt to approach the global histogram parameters. The exploratory phase comes along with the definition of multiple scales of interest for indoor radon mapping in Switzerland. The analysis was done with a top-to-down resolution approach, from regional to local lev¬els in order to find the appropriate scales for modeling. In this sense, data partition was optimized in order to cope with stationary conditions of geostatistical models. Common methods of spatial modeling such as Κ Nearest Neighbors (KNN), variography and General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) were proposed as exploratory tools. In the following section, different spatial interpolation methods were applied for a par-ticular dataset. A bottom to top method complexity approach was adopted and the results were analyzed together in order to find common definitions of continuity and neighborhood parameters. Additionally, a data filter based on cross-validation was tested with the purpose of reducing noise at local scale (the CVMF). At the end of the chapter, a series of test for data consistency and methods robustness were performed. This lead to conclude about the importance of data splitting and the limitation of generalization methods for reproducing statistical distributions. The last section was dedicated to modeling methods with probabilistic interpretations. Data transformation and simulations thus allowed the use of multigaussian models and helped take the indoor radon pollution data uncertainty into consideration. The catego-rization transform was presented as a solution for extreme values modeling through clas-sification. Simulation scenarios were proposed, including an alternative proposal for the reproduction of the global histogram based on the sampling domain. The sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) was presented as the method giving the most complete information, while classification performed in a more robust way. An error measure was defined in relation to the decision function for data classification hardening. Within the classification methods, probabilistic neural networks (PNN) show to be better adapted for modeling of high threshold categorization and for automation. Support vector machines (SVM) on the contrary performed well under balanced category conditions. In general, it was concluded that a particular prediction or estimation method is not better under all conditions of scale and neighborhood definitions. Simulations should be the basis, while other methods can provide complementary information to accomplish an efficient indoor radon decision making.

Evaluation of Gap-Graded Asphalt Concrete Mixtures Part II: Statistical Design and Analysis, HR-157, 1973

This report presents the results of a comparative laboratory study between well- and gap-graded aggregates used in asphalt concrete paving mixtures. A total of 424 batches of asphalt concrete mixtures and 3, 960 Marshall and Hveem specimens were examined. The main thrust of the statistical analysis conducted in this experiment was in the calibration study and in Part I of the experiment. In the former study, the compaction procedure between the Iowa State University Lab and the Iowa Highway Commission Lab was calibrated. By an analysis of the errors associated with the measurements we were able to separate the "preparation" and "determination" errors for both laboratories as well as develop the calibration curve which describes the relationship between the compaction procedures at the two labs. In Part I, the use of a fractional factorial design in a split plot experiment in measuring the effect of several factors on asphalt concrete strength and weight was exhibited. Also, the use of half normal plotting techniques for indicating significant factors and interactions and for estimating errors in experiments with only a limited number of observations was outlined,

Clinical effectiveness of direct class II restorations: a meta-analysis.

Purpose: More than five hundred million direct dental restorations are placed each year worldwide. In about 55% of the cases, resin composites or compomers are used, and in 45% amalgam. The longevity of posterior resin restorations is well documented. However, data on resin composites that are placed without enamel/dentin conditioning and resin composites placed with self-etching adhesive systems are missing. Material and Methods: The database SCOPUS was searched for clinical trials on posterior resin composites without restricting the search to the year of publication. The inclusion criteria were: (1) prospective clinical trial with at least 2 years of observation; (2) minimum number of restorations at last recall = 20; (3) report on dropout rate; (4) report of operative technique and materials used; (5) utilization of Ryge or modified Ryge evaluation criteria. For amalgam, only those studies were included that directly compared composite resin restorations with amalgam. For the statistical analysis, a linear mixed model was used with random effects to account for the heterogeneity between the studies. P-values under 0.05 were considered significant. Results: Of the 373 clinical trials, 59 studies met the inclusion criteria. In 70% of the studies, Class II and Class I restorations had been placed. The overall success rate of composite resin restorations was about 90% after 10 years, which was not different from that of amalgam. Restorations with compomers had a significantly lower longevity. The main reason for replacement were bulk fractures and caries adjacent to restorations. Both of these incidents were infrequent in most studies and accounted only for about 6% of all replaced restorations after 10 years. Restorations with macrofilled composites and compomer suffered significantly more loss of anatomical form than restorations with other types of material. Restorations that were placed without enamel acid etching and a dentin bonding agent showed significantly more marginal staining and detectable margins compared to those restorations placed using the enamel-etch or etch-and-rinse technique; restorations with self-etching systems were between the other groups. Restorations with compomer suffered significantly more chippings (repairable fracture) than restorations with other materials, which did not statistically differ among each other. Restorations that were placed with a rubber-dam showed significantly fewer material fractures that needed replacement, and this also had a significant effect on the overall longevity. Conclusion: Restorations with hybrid and microfilled composites that were placed with the enamel-etching technique and rubber-dam showed the best overall performance; the longevity of these restorations was similar to amalgam restorations. Compomer restorations, restorations placed with macrofilled composites, and resin restorations with no-etching or self-etching adhesives demonstrated significant shortcomings and shorter longevity.

Statistical significance of quantitative PCR.

BACKGROUND: PCR has the potential to detect and precisely quantify specific DNA sequences, but it is not yet often used as a fully quantitative method. A number of data collection and processing strategies have been described for the implementation of quantitative PCR. However, they can be experimentally cumbersome, their relative performances have not been evaluated systematically, and they often remain poorly validated statistically and/or experimentally. In this study, we evaluated the performance of known methods, and compared them with newly developed data processing strategies in terms of resolution, precision and robustness. RESULTS: Our results indicate that simple methods that do not rely on the estimation of the efficiency of the PCR amplification may provide reproducible and sensitive data, but that they do not quantify DNA with precision. Other evaluated methods based on sigmoidal or exponential curve fitting were generally of both poor resolution and precision. A statistical analysis of the parameters that influence efficiency indicated that it depends mostly on the selected amplicon and to a lesser extent on the particular biological sample analyzed. Thus, we devised various strategies based on individual or averaged efficiency values, which were used to assess the regulated expression of several genes in response to a growth factor. CONCLUSION: Overall, qPCR data analysis methods differ significantly in their performance, and this analysis identifies methods that provide DNA quantification estimates of high precision, robustness and reliability. These methods allow reliable estimations of relative expression ratio of two-fold or higher, and our analysis provides an estimation of the number of biological samples that have to be analyzed to achieve a given precision.

Risk and global change : developing scientific methods for advocacy and awareness raising

Les catastrophes sont souvent perçues comme des événements rapides et aléatoires. Si les déclencheurs peuvent être soudains, les catastrophes, elles, sont le résultat d'une accumulation des conséquences d'actions et de décisions inappropriées ainsi que du changement global. Pour modifier cette perception du risque, des outils de sensibilisation sont nécessaires. Des méthodes quantitatives ont été développées et ont permis d'identifier la distribution et les facteurs sous- jacents du risque.¦Le risque de catastrophes résulte de l'intersection entre aléas, exposition et vulnérabilité. La fréquence et l'intensité des aléas peuvent être influencées par le changement climatique ou le déclin des écosystèmes, la croissance démographique augmente l'exposition, alors que l'évolution du niveau de développement affecte la vulnérabilité. Chacune de ses composantes pouvant changer, le risque est dynamique et doit être réévalué périodiquement par les gouvernements, les assurances ou les agences de développement. Au niveau global, ces analyses sont souvent effectuées à l'aide de base de données sur les pertes enregistrées. Nos résultats montrent que celles-ci sont susceptibles d'être biaisées notamment par l'amélioration de l'accès à l'information. Elles ne sont pas exhaustives et ne donnent pas d'information sur l'exposition, l'intensité ou la vulnérabilité. Une nouvelle approche, indépendante des pertes reportées, est donc nécessaire.¦Les recherches présentées ici ont été mandatées par les Nations Unies et par des agences oeuvrant dans le développement et l'environnement (PNUD, l'UNISDR, la GTZ, le PNUE ou l'UICN). Ces organismes avaient besoin d'une évaluation quantitative sur les facteurs sous-jacents du risque, afin de sensibiliser les décideurs et pour la priorisation des projets de réduction des risques de désastres.¦La méthode est basée sur les systèmes d'information géographique, la télédétection, les bases de données et l'analyse statistique. Une importante quantité de données (1,7 Tb) et plusieurs milliers d'heures de calculs ont été nécessaires. Un modèle de risque global a été élaboré pour révéler la distribution des aléas, de l'exposition et des risques, ainsi que pour l'identification des facteurs de risque sous- jacent de plusieurs aléas (inondations, cyclones tropicaux, séismes et glissements de terrain). Deux indexes de risque multiples ont été générés pour comparer les pays. Les résultats incluent une évaluation du rôle de l'intensité de l'aléa, de l'exposition, de la pauvreté, de la gouvernance dans la configuration et les tendances du risque. Il apparaît que les facteurs de vulnérabilité changent en fonction du type d'aléa, et contrairement à l'exposition, leur poids décroît quand l'intensité augmente.¦Au niveau local, la méthode a été testée pour mettre en évidence l'influence du changement climatique et du déclin des écosystèmes sur l'aléa. Dans le nord du Pakistan, la déforestation induit une augmentation de la susceptibilité des glissements de terrain. Les recherches menées au Pérou (à base d'imagerie satellitaire et de collecte de données au sol) révèlent un retrait glaciaire rapide et donnent une évaluation du volume de glace restante ainsi que des scénarios sur l'évolution possible.¦Ces résultats ont été présentés à des publics différents, notamment en face de 160 gouvernements. Les résultats et les données générées sont accessibles en ligne (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). La méthode est flexible et facilement transposable à des échelles et problématiques différentes, offrant de bonnes perspectives pour l'adaptation à d'autres domaines de recherche.¦La caractérisation du risque au niveau global et l'identification du rôle des écosystèmes dans le risque de catastrophe est en plein développement. Ces recherches ont révélés de nombreux défis, certains ont été résolus, d'autres sont restés des limitations. Cependant, il apparaît clairement que le niveau de développement configure line grande partie des risques de catastrophes. La dynamique du risque est gouvernée principalement par le changement global.¦Disasters are often perceived as fast and random events. If the triggers may be sudden, disasters are the result of an accumulation of actions, consequences from inappropriate decisions and from global change. To modify this perception of risk, advocacy tools are needed. Quantitative methods have been developed to identify the distribution and the underlying factors of risk.¦Disaster risk is resulting from the intersection of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. The frequency and intensity of hazards can be influenced by climate change or by the decline of ecosystems. Population growth increases the exposure, while changes in the level of development affect the vulnerability. Given that each of its components may change, the risk is dynamic and should be reviewed periodically by governments, insurance companies or development agencies. At the global level, these analyses are often performed using databases on reported losses. Our results show that these are likely to be biased in particular by improvements in access to information. International losses databases are not exhaustive and do not give information on exposure, the intensity or vulnerability. A new approach, independent of reported losses, is necessary.¦The researches presented here have been mandated by the United Nations and agencies working in the development and the environment (UNDP, UNISDR, GTZ, UNEP and IUCN). These organizations needed a quantitative assessment of the underlying factors of risk, to raise awareness amongst policymakers and to prioritize disaster risk reduction projects.¦The method is based on geographic information systems, remote sensing, databases and statistical analysis. It required a large amount of data (1.7 Tb of data on both the physical environment and socio-economic parameters) and several thousand hours of processing were necessary. A comprehensive risk model was developed to reveal the distribution of hazards, exposure and risk, and to identify underlying risk factors. These were performed for several hazards (e.g. floods, tropical cyclones, earthquakes and landslides). Two different multiple risk indexes were generated to compare countries. The results include an evaluation of the role of the intensity of the hazard, exposure, poverty, governance in the pattern and trends of risk. It appears that the vulnerability factors change depending on the type of hazard, and contrary to the exposure, their weight decreases as the intensity increases.¦Locally, the method was tested to highlight the influence of climate change and the ecosystems decline on the hazard. In northern Pakistan, deforestation exacerbates the susceptibility of landslides. Researches in Peru (based on satellite imagery and ground data collection) revealed a rapid glacier retreat and give an assessment of the remaining ice volume as well as scenarios of possible evolution.¦These results were presented to different audiences, including in front of 160 governments. The results and data generated are made available online through an open source SDI (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). The method is flexible and easily transferable to different scales and issues, with good prospects for adaptation to other research areas. The risk characterization at a global level and identifying the role of ecosystems in disaster risk is booming. These researches have revealed many challenges, some were resolved, while others remained limitations. However, it is clear that the level of development, and more over, unsustainable development, configures a large part of disaster risk and that the dynamics of risk is primarily governed by global change.

Monte Carlo Methods in Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Models

Yksi keskeisimmistä tehtävistä matemaattisten mallien tilastollisessa analyysissä on mallien tuntemattomien parametrien estimointi. Tässä diplomityössä ollaan kiinnostuneita tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumista ja niiden muodostamiseen sopivista numeerisista menetelmistä, etenkin tapauksissa, joissa malli on epälineaarinen parametrien suhteen. Erilaisten numeeristen menetelmien osalta pääpaino on Markovin ketju Monte Carlo -menetelmissä (MCMC). Nämä laskentaintensiiviset menetelmät ovat viime aikoina kasvattaneet suosiotaan lähinnä kasvaneen laskentatehon vuoksi. Sekä Markovin ketjujen että Monte Carlo -simuloinnin teoriaa on esitelty työssä siinä määrin, että menetelmien toimivuus saadaan perusteltua. Viime aikoina kehitetyistä menetelmistä tarkastellaan etenkin adaptiivisia MCMC menetelmiä. Työn lähestymistapa on käytännönläheinen ja erilaisia MCMC -menetelmien toteutukseen liittyviä asioita korostetaan. Työn empiirisessä osuudessa tarkastellaan viiden esimerkkimallin tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumaa käyttäen hyväksi teoriaosassa esitettyjä menetelmiä. Mallit kuvaavat kemiallisia reaktioita ja kuvataan tavallisina differentiaaliyhtälöryhminä. Mallit on kerätty kemisteiltä Lappeenrannan teknillisestä yliopistosta ja Åbo Akademista, Turusta.

Development of data sheets for statistical evaluation of fatigue data

To enable a mathematically and physically sound execution of the fatigue test and a correct interpretation of its results, statistical evaluation methods are used to assist in the analysis of fatigue testing data. The main objective of this work is to develop step-by-stepinstructions for statistical analysis of the laboratory fatigue data. The scopeof this project is to provide practical cases about answering the several questions raised in the treatment of test data with application of the methods and formulae in the document IIW-XIII-2138-06 (Best Practice Guide on the Statistical Analysis of Fatigue Data). Generally, the questions in the data sheets involve some aspects: estimation of necessary sample size, verification of the statistical equivalence of the collated sets of data, and determination of characteristic curves in different cases. The series of comprehensive examples which are given in this thesis serve as a demonstration of the various statistical methods to develop a sound procedure to create reliable calculation rules for the fatigue analysis.

Monitoring of crystallization processes by using infrared spectroscopy and multivariate methods

Väitöstutkimuksessa on tarkasteltuinfrapunaspektroskopian ja monimuuttujaisten aineistonkäsittelymenetelmien soveltamista kiteytysprosessin monitoroinnissa ja kidemäisen tuotteen analysoinnissa. Parhaillaan kiteytysprosessitutkimuksessa maailmanlaajuisesti tutkitaan intensiivisesti erilaisten mittausmenetelmien soveltamista kiteytysprosessin ilmiöidenjatkuvaan mittaamiseen niin nestefaasista kuin syntyvistä kiteistäkin. Lisäksi tuotteen karakterisointi on välttämätöntä tuotteen laadun varmistamiseksi. Erityisesti lääkeaineiden valmistuksessa kiinnostusta tämäntyyppiseen tutkimukseen edistää Yhdysvaltain elintarvike- ja lääkeaineviraston (FDA) prosessianalyyttisiintekniikoihin (PAT) liittyvä ohjeistus, jossa määritellään laajasti vaatimukset lääkeaineiden valmistuksessa ja tuotteen karakterisoinnissa tarvittaville mittauksille turvallisten valmistusprosessien takaamiseksi. Jäähdytyskiteytyson erityisesti lääketeollisuudessa paljon käytetty erotusmenetelmä kiinteän raakatuotteen puhdistuksessa. Menetelmässä puhdistettava kiinteä raaka-aine liuotetaan sopivaan liuottimeen suhteellisen korkeassa lämpötilassa. Puhdistettavan aineen liukoisuus käytettävään liuottimeen laskee lämpötilan laskiessa, joten systeemiä jäähdytettäessä liuenneen aineen konsentraatio prosessissa ylittää liukoisuuskonsentraation. Tällaiseen ylikylläiseen systeemiin pyrkii muodostumaan uusia kiteitä tai olemassa olevat kiteet kasvavat. Ylikylläisyys on yksi tärkeimmistä kidetuotteen laatuun vaikuttavista tekijöistä. Jäähdytyskiteytyksessä syntyvän tuotteen ominaisuuksiin voidaan vaikuttaa mm. liuottimen valinnalla, jäähdytyprofiililla ja sekoituksella. Lisäksi kiteytysprosessin käynnistymisvaihe eli ensimmäisten kiteiden muodostumishetki vaikuttaa tuotteen ominaisuuksiin. Kidemäisen tuotteen laatu määritellään kiteiden keskimääräisen koon, koko- ja muotojakaumansekä puhtauden perusteella. Lääketeollisuudessa on usein vaatimuksena, että tuote edustaa tiettyä polymorfimuotoa, mikä tarkoittaa molekyylien kykyä järjestäytyä kidehilassa usealla eri tavalla. Edellä mainitut ominaisuudet vaikuttavat tuotteen jatkokäsiteltävyyteen, kuten mm. suodattuvuuteen, jauhautuvuuteen ja tabletoitavuuteen. Lisäksi polymorfiamuodolla on vaikutusta moniin tuotteen käytettävyysominaisuuksiin, kuten esim. lääkeaineen liukenemisnopeuteen elimistössä. Väitöstyössä on tutkittu sulfatiatsolin jäähdytyskiteytystä käyttäen useita eri liuotinseoksia ja jäähdytysprofiileja sekä tarkasteltu näiden tekijöiden vaikutustatuotteen laatuominaisuuksiin. Infrapunaspektroskopia on laajalti kemian alan tutkimuksissa sovellettava menetelmä. Siinä mitataan tutkittavan näytteenmolekyylien värähtelyjen aiheuttamia spektrimuutoksia IR alueella. Tutkimuksessa prosessinaikaiset mittaukset toteutettiin in-situ reaktoriin sijoitettavalla uppoanturilla käyttäen vaimennettuun kokonaisheijastukseen (ATR) perustuvaa Fourier muunnettua infrapuna (FTIR) spektroskopiaa. Jauhemaiset näytteet mitattiin off-line diffuusioheijastukseen (DRIFT) perustuvalla FTIR spektroskopialla. Monimuuttujamenetelmillä (kemometria) voidaan useita satoja, jopa tuhansia muuttujia käsittävä spektridata jalostaa kvalitatiiviseksi (laadulliseksi) tai kvantitatiiviseksi (määrälliseksi) prosessia kuvaavaksi informaatioksi. Väitöstyössä tarkasteltiin laajasti erilaisten monimuuttujamenetelmien soveltamista mahdollisimman monipuolisen prosessia kuvaavan informaation saamiseksi mitatusta spektriaineistosta. Väitöstyön tuloksena on ehdotettu kalibrointirutiini liuenneen aineen konsentraation ja edelleen ylikylläisyystason mittaamiseksi kiteytysprosessin aikana. Kalibrointirutiinin kehittämiseen kuuluivat aineiston hyvyyden tarkastelumenetelmät, aineiston esikäsittelymenetelmät, varsinainen kalibrointimallinnus sekä mallin validointi. Näin saadaan reaaliaikaista informaatiota kiteytysprosessin ajavasta voimasta, mikä edelleen parantaa kyseisen prosessin tuntemusta ja hallittavuutta. Ylikylläisyystason vaikutuksia syntyvän kidetuotteen laatuun seurattiin usein kiteytyskokein. Työssä on esitetty myös monimuuttujaiseen tilastolliseen prosessinseurantaan perustuva menetelmä, jolla voidaan ennustaa spontaania primääristä ytimenmuodostumishetkeä mitatusta spektriaineistosta sekä mahdollisesti päätellä ydintymisessä syntyvä polymorfimuoto. Ehdotettua menetelmää hyödyntäen voidaan paitsi ennakoida kideytimien muodostumista myös havaita mahdolliset häiriötilanteet kiteytysprosessin alkuhetkillä. Syntyvää polymorfimuotoa ennustamalla voidaan havaita ei-toivotun polymorfin ydintyminen,ja mahdollisesti muuttaa kiteytyksen ohjausta halutun polymorfimuodon saavuttamiseksi. Monimuuttujamenetelmiä sovellettiin myös kiteytyspanosten välisen vaihtelun määrittämiseen mitatusta spektriaineistosta. Tämäntyyppisestä analyysistä saatua informaatiota voidaan hyödyntää kiteytysprosessien suunnittelussa ja optimoinnissa. Väitöstyössä testattiin IR spektroskopian ja erilaisten monimuuttujamenetelmien soveltuvuutta kidetuotteen polymorfikoostumuksen nopeaan määritykseen. Jauhemaisten näytteiden luokittelu eri polymorfeja sisältäviin näytteisiin voitiin tehdä käyttäen tarkoitukseen soveltuvia monimuuttujaisia luokittelumenetelmiä. Tämä tarjoaa nopean menetelmän jauhemaisen näytteen polymorfikoostumuksen karkeaan arviointiin, eli siihen mitä yksittäistä polymorfia kyseinen näyte pääasiassa sisältää. Varsinainen kvantitatiivinen analyysi, eli sen selvittäminen paljonko esim. painoprosentteina näyte sisältää eri polymorfeja, vaatii kaikki polymorfit kattavan fysikaalisen kalibrointisarjan, mikä voi olla puhtaiden polymorfien huonon saatavuuden takia hankalaa.

Clinical effectiveness of direct anterior restorations-A meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This is the first meta-analysis on the efficacy of composite resin restorations in anterior teeth. The objective of the present meta-analysis was to verify whether specific material classes, tooth conditioning methods and operational procedures influence the result for Class III and Class IV restorations. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The database SCOPUS and PubMed were searched for clinical trials on anterior resin composites without restricting the search to the year of publication. The inclusion criteria were: (1) prospective clinical trial with at least 2 years of observation; (2) minimal number of restorations at last recall=20; (3) report on drop-out rate; (4) report of operative technique and materials used in the trial, and (5) utilization of Ryge or modified Ryge evaluation criteria. For the statistical analysis, a linear mixed model was used with random effects to account for the heterogeneity between the studies. p-Values smaller than 0.05 were considered to be significant. RESULTS: Of the 84 clinical trials, 21 studies met the inclusion criteria, 14 of them for Class III restorations, 6 for Class IV restorations and 1 for closure of diastemata; the latter was included in the Class IV group. Twelve of the 21 studies started before 1991 and 18 before 2001. The estimated median overall success rate (without replacement) after 10 years for Class III composite resin restorations was 95% and for Class IV restorations 90%. The main reason for the replacement of Class IV restorations was bulk fractures, which occurred significantly more frequently with microfilled composites than with hybrid and macrofilled composites. Caries adjacent to restorations was infrequent in most studies and accounted only for about 2.5% of all replaced restorations after 10 years irrespective of the cavity class. Class III restorations with glass ionomer derivates suffered significantly more loss of anatomical form than did fillings with other types of material. When the enamel was acid-etched and no bonding agent was applied, significantly more restorations showed marginal staining and detectable margins compared to enamel etching with enamel bonding or the total etch technique; fillings with self-etching systems were in between of these two outcome variables. Bevelling of the enamel was associated with a significantly reduced deterioration of the anatomical form compared to no bevelling but not with less marginal staining or less detectable margins. The type of isolation (absolute/relative) had a statistically significant influence on marginal caries which, however, might be a random finding.

Chemotherapy and radiotherapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: an update of the MAC-NPC meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: A previous individual patient data meta-analysis by the Meta-Analysis of Chemotherapy in Nasopharynx Carcinoma (MAC-NPC) collaborative group to assess the addition of chemotherapy to radiotherapy showed that it improves overall survival in nasopharyngeal carcinoma. This benefit was restricted to patients receiving concomitant chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The aim of this study was to update the meta-analysis, include recent trials, and to analyse separately the benefit of concomitant plus adjuvant chemotherapy. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Controlled Trials meta-register, ClinicalTrials.gov, and meeting proceedings to identify published or unpublished randomised trials assessing radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy in patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma and obtained updated data for previously analysed studies. The primary endpoint of interest was overall survival. All trial results were combined and analysed using a fixed-effects model. The statistical analysis plan was pre-specified in a protocol. All data were analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. FINDINGS: We analysed data from 19 trials and 4806 patients. Median follow-up was 7·7 years (IQR 6·2-11·9). We found that the addition of chemotherapy to radiotherapy significantly improved overall survival (hazard ratio [HR] 0·79, 95% CI 0·73-0·86, p<0·0001; absolute benefit at 5 years 6·3%, 95% CI 3·5-9·1). The interaction between treatment effect (benefit of chemotherapy) on overall survival and the timing of chemotherapy was significant (p=0·01) in favour of concomitant plus adjuvant chemotherapy (HR 0·65, 0·56-0·76) and concomitant without adjuvant chemotherapy (0·80, 0·70-0·93) but not adjuvant chemotherapy alone (0·87, 0·68-1·12) or induction chemotherapy alone (0·96, 0·80-1·16). The benefit of the addition of chemotherapy was consistent for all endpoints analysed (all p<0·0001): progression-free survival (HR 0·75, 95% CI 0·69-0·81), locoregional control (0·73, 0·64-0·83), distant control (0·67, 0·59-0·75), and cancer mortality (0·76, 0·69-0·84). INTERPRETATION: Our results confirm that the addition of concomitant chemotherapy to radiotherapy significantly improves survival in patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma. To our knowledge, this is the first analysis that examines the effect of concomitant chemotherapy with and without adjuvant chemotherapy as distinct groups. Further studies on the specific benefits of adjuvant chemotherapy after concomitant chemoradiotherapy are needed. FUNDING: French Ministry of Health (Programme d'actions intégrées de recherche VADS), Ligue Nationale Contre le Cancer, and Sanofi-Aventis.

Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models

This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.

Meta-analysis of the influence of bonding parameters on the clinical outcome of tooth-colored cervical restorations

PURPOSE: To meta-analyze the literature on the clinical performance of Class V restorations to assess the factors that influence retention, marginal integrity, and marginal discoloration of cervical lesions restored with composite resins, glass-ionomer-cement-based materials [glass-ionomer cement (GIC) and resin-modified glass ionomers (RMGICs)], and polyacid-modified resin composites (PMRC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The English literature was searched (MEDLINE and SCOPUS) for prospective clinical trials on cervical restorations with an observation period of at least 18 months. The studies had to report about retention, marginal discoloration, marginal integrity, and marginal caries and include a description of the operative technique (beveling of enamel, roughening of dentin, type of isolation). Eighty-one studies involving 185 experiments for 47 adhesives matched the inclusion criteria. The statistical analysis was carried out by using the following linear mixed model: log (-log (Y /100)) = β + α log(T ) + error with β = log(λ), where β is a summary measure of the non-linear deterioration occurring in each experiment, including a random study effect. RESULTS: On average, 12.3% of the cervical restorations were lost, 27.9% exhibited marginal discoloration, and 34.6% exhibited deterioration of marginal integrity after 5 years. The calculation of the clinical index was 17.4% of failures after 5 years and 32.3% after 8 years. A higher variability was found for retention loss and marginal discoloration. Hardly any secondary caries lesions were detected, even in the experiments with a follow-up time longer than 8 years. Restorations placed using rubber-dam in teeth whose dentin was roughened showed a statistically significantly higher retention rate than those placed in teeth with unprepared dentin or without rubber-dam (p < 0.05). However, enamel beveling had no influence on any of the examined variables. Significant differences were found between pairs of adhesive systems and also between pairs of classes of adhesive systems. One-step self-etching had a significantly worse clinically index than two-step self-etching and three-step etch-and-rinse (p = 0.026 and p = 0.002, respectively). CONCLUSION: The clinical performance is significantly influenced by the type of adhesive system and/or the adhesive class to which the system belongs. Whether the dentin/enamel is roughened or not and whether rubberdam isolation is used or not also significantly influenced the clinical performance. Composite resin restorations placed with two-step self-etching and three-step etch-and-rinse adhesive systems should be preferred over onestep self-etching adhesive systems, GIC-based materials, and PMRCs.

Gamma Knife Surgery versus Linac for Brain Metastasis: Which Technique for Which Patient? Analysis of an Historical Cohort of 63 Consecutive Patients Harboring 130 Lesions

Objectives: We present the retrospective analysis of a single-institution experience for radiosurgery (RS) in brain metastasis (BM) with Gamma Knife (GK) and Linac. Methods: From July 2010 to July 2012, 28 patients (with 83 lesions) had RS with GK and 35 patients (with 47 lesions) with Linac. The primary outcome was the local progression-free survival (LPFS). The secondary outcome was the overall survival (OS). Apart a standard statistical analysis, we included a Cox regression model with shared frailty, to modulate the within-patient correlation (preliminary evaluation showed a significant frailty effect, meaning that the correlation within patient could be ignored). Results: The mean follow-up period was 11.7 months (median 7.9, 1.7-22.7) for GK and 18.1 (median 17, 7.5-28.7) for Linac. The median number of lesions per patient was 2.5 (1-9) in GK compared with 1 (1-3) in Linac. There were more radioresistant lesions (melanoma) and more lesions located in functional areas for the GK group. The median dose was 24 Gy (GK) compared with 20 Gy (Linac). The LPFS actuarial rate was as follows: for GK at 3, 6, 9, 12, and 17 months: 96.96, 96.96, 96.96, 88.1, and 81.5%, and remained stable till 32 months; for Linac at 3, 6, 12, 17, 24, and 33 months, it was 91.5, 91.5, 91.5, 79.9, 55.5, and 17.1%, respectively (p = 0.03, chi-square test). After the Cox regression analysis with shared frailty, the p-value was not statistically significant between groups. The median overall survival was 9.7 months for GK and 23.6 months for Linac group. Uni- and multivariate analysis showed a lower GPA score and noncontrolled systemic status were associated with lower OS. Cox regression analysis adjusting for these two parameters showed comparable OS rate. Conclusions: In this comparative report between GK and Linac, preliminary analysis showed that more difficult cases are treated by GK, with patients harboring more lesions, radioresistant tumors, and highly functional located. The groups look, in this sense, very heterogeneous at baseline. After a Cox frailty model, the LPFS rates seemed very similar (p < 0.05). The OS was similar, after adjusting for systemic status and GPA score (p < 0.05). The technical reasons for choosing GK instead of Linac were the anatomical location related to highly functional areas, histology, technical limitations of Linac movements, especially lower posterior fossa locations, or closeness of multiple lesions to highly functional areas optimal dosimetry with Linac

Use of Statistical Methods in Demand Planning

In a very volatile industry of high technology it is of utmost importance to accurately forecast customers’ demand. However, statistical forecasting of sales, especially in heavily competitive electronics product business, has always been a challenging task due to very high variation in demand and very short product life cycles of products. The purpose of this thesis is to validate if statistical methods can be applied to forecasting sales of short life cycle electronics products and provide a feasible framework for implementing statistical forecasting in the environment of the case company. Two different approaches have been developed for forecasting on short and medium term and long term horizons. Both models are based on decomposition models, but differ in interpretation of the model residuals. For long term horizons residuals are assumed to represent white noise, whereas for short and medium term forecasting horizon residuals are modeled using statistical forecasting methods. Implementation of both approaches is performed in Matlab. Modeling results have shown that different markets exhibit different demand patterns and therefore different analytical approaches are appropriate for modeling demand in these markets. Moreover, the outcomes of modeling imply that statistical forecasting can not be handled separately from judgmental forecasting, but should be perceived only as a basis for judgmental forecasting activities. Based on modeling results recommendations for further deployment of statistical methods in sales forecasting of the case company are developed.