Monetary models of exchange rates and sweep programs

Numerous studies find that monetary models of exchange rates cannot beat a random walk model. Such a finding, however, is not surprising given that such models are built upon money demand functions and traditional money demand functions appear to have broken down in many developed countries. In this article, we investigate whether using a more stable underlying money demand function results in improvements in forecasts of monetary models of exchange rates. More specifically, we use a sweep-adjusted measure of US monetary aggregate M1 which has been shown to have a more stable money demand function than the official M1 measure. The results suggest that the monetary models of exchange rates contain information about future movements of exchange rates, but the success of such models depends on the stability of money demand functions and the specifications of the models.

Monetary models of exchange rates and sweep programs

Numerous studies find that monetary models of exchange rates cannot beat a random walk model. Such a finding, however, is not surprising given that such models are built upon money demand functions and traditional money demand functions appear to have broken down in many developed countries. In this paper we investigate whether using a more stable underlying money demand function results in improvements in forecasts of monetary models of exchange rates. More specifically, we use a sweepadjusted measure of US monetary aggregate M1 which has been shown to have a more stable money demand function than the official M1 measure. The results suggest that the monetary models of exchange rates contain information about future movements of exchange rates but the success of such models depends on the stability of money demand functions and the specifications of the models.

Modeling high-speed network traffic with truncated α-stable processes

It has been reported that high-speed communication network traffic exhibits both long-range dependence (LRD) and burstiness, which posed new challenges in network engineering. While many models have been studied in capturing the traffic LRD, they are not capable of capturing efficiently the traffic impulsiveness. It is desirable to develop a model that can capture both LRD and burstiness. In this letter, we propose a truncated a-stable LRD process model for this purpose, which can characterize both LRD and burstiness accurately. A procedure is developed further to estimate the model parameters from real traffic. Simulations demonstrate that our proposed model has a higher accuracy compared to existing models and is flexible in capturing the characteristics of high-speed network traffic. © 2012 Springer-Verlag GmbH.

Optimal Decision Rules in Logical Recognition Models

The task of smooth and stable decision rules construction in logical recognition models is considered. Logical regularities of classes are defined as conjunctions of one-place predicates that determine the membership of features values in an intervals of the real axis. The conjunctions are true on a special no extending subsets of reference objects of some class and are optimal. The standard approach of linear decision rules construction for given sets of logical regularities consists in realization of voting schemes. The weighting coefficients of voting procedures are done as heuristic ones or are as solutions of complex optimization task. The modifications of linear decision rules are proposed that are based on the search of maximal estimations of standard objects for their classes and use approximations of logical regularities by smooth sigmoid functions.

Applying stable isotopes to examine food-web structure: an overview of analytical tools

Stable isotope analysis has emerged as one of the primary means for examining the structure and dynamics of food webs, and numerous analytical approaches are now commonly used in the field. Techniques range from simple, qualitative inferences based on the isotopic niche, to Bayesian mixing models that can be used to characterize food-web structure at multiple hierarchical levels. We provide a comprehensive review of these techniques, and thus a single reference source to help identify the most useful approaches to apply to a given data set. We structure the review around four general questions: (1) what is the trophic position of an organism in a food web?; (2) which resource pools support consumers?; (3) what additional information does relative position of consumers in isotopic space reveal about food-web structure?; and (4) what is the degree of trophic variability at the intrapopulation level? For each general question, we detail different approaches that have been applied, discussing the strengths and weaknesses of each. We conclude with a set of suggestions that transcend individual analytical approaches, and provide guidance for future applications in the field.

Age models, accumulation rates, and grain size distributions of sediment cores from the northern subtropical Atlantic

The terrigenous sediment proportion of the deep sea sediments from off Northwest Africa has been studied in order to distinguish between the aeolian and the fluvial sediment supply. The present and fossil Saharan dust trajectories were recognized from the distribution patterns of the aeolian sediment. The following timeslices have been investigated: Present, 6,000, 12,000 and 18,000 y. B. P. Furthermore, the quantity of dust deposited off the Saharan coast has been estimated. For this purpose, 80 surface sediment samples and 34 sediment cores have been analysed. The stratigraphy of the cores has been achieved from oxygen isotopic curves, 14C-dating, foraminiferal transfer temperatures, and carbonate contents. Silt sized biogenic opal generally accounts for less than 2 % of the total insoluble sediment proportion. Only under productive upwelling waters and off river mouths, the opal proportion exceeds 2 % significantly. The modern terrigenous sediment from off the Saharan coast is generally characterized by intensely stained quartz grains. They indicate an origin from southern Saharan and Sahelian laterites, and a zonal aeolian transport in midtropospheric levels, between 1.5 an 5.5 km, by 'Harmattan' Winds. The dust particles follow large outbreaks of Saharan air across the African coast between 15° and 21° N. Their trajectories are centered at about 18° N and continue further into a clockwise gyre situated south of the Canary Islands. This course is indicated by a sickle-shaped tongue of coarser grain sizes in the deep-sea sediment. Such loess-sized terrigenous particles only settle within a zone extending to 700 km offshore. Fine silt and clay sized particles, with grain sizes smaller than 10- 15 µm, drift still further west and can be traced up to more than 4,000 km distance from their source areas. Additional terrigenous silt which is poor in stained quartz occurs within a narrow zone off the western Sahara between 20° and 27° N only. It depicts the present dust supply by the trade winds close to the surface. The dust load originates from the northwestern Sahara, the Atlas Mountains and coastal areas, which contain a particularly low amount of stained quartz. The distribution pattern of these pale quartz sediments reveals a SSW-dispersal of dust being consistent with the present trade wind direction from the NNE. In comparison to the sediments from off the Sahara and the deeper subtropical Atlantic, the sediments off river mouths, in particular off the Senegal river, are characterized by an additional input of fine grained terrigenous particles (< 6 µm). This is due to fluvial suspension load. The fluvial discharge leads to a relative excess of fine grained particles and is observed in a correlation diagram of the modal grain sizes of terrigenous silt with the proportion of fine fraction (< 6 µm). The aeolian sediment contribution by the Harmattan Winds strongly decreased during the Climatic Optimum at 6,000 y. B. P. The dust discharge of the trade winds is hardly detectable in the deep-sea sediments. This probably indicates a weakened atmospheric circulation. In contrast, the fluvial sediment supply reached a maximum, and can be traced to beyond Cape Blanc. Thus, the Saharan climate was more humid at 6,000 y B. P. A latitudinal shift of the Harmattan driven dust outbreaks cannot be observed. Also during the Glacial, 18,000 y. B. P., Harmattan dust transport crossed the African coast at latitudes of 15°-20° N. Its sediment load increased intensively, and markedly coarser grains spread further into the Atlantic Ocean. An expanded zone of pale-quart sediments indicates an enhanced dust supply by the trade winds blowing from the NE. No synglacial fluvial sediment contribution can be recognized between 12° and 30° N. This indicates a dry glacial climate and a strengthened stmospheric circulation over the Sahelian and Saharan region. The climatic transition pahes, at 12, 000 y. B. P., between the last Glacial and the Intergalcial, which is compareable to the Alerod in Europe, is characterized by an intermediate supply of terrigenous particles. The Harmattan dust transport wa weaker than during the Glacial. The northeasterly trade winds were still intensive. River supply reached a first postglacial maximum seaward of the Senegal river mouth. This indicates increasing humidity over the southern Sahara and a weaker atmospheric circulation as compared to the glacial. The accumulation rates of the terrigenous silt proportion (> 6 µm) decrcase exponentially with increasing distance from the Saharan coast. Those of the terrigenous fine fraction (< 6 µm) follow the same trend and show almost similar gradients. Accordingly, also the terrigenous fine fraction is believed to result predominantly from aeolian transport. In the Atlantic deep-sea sediments, the annual terrigenous sediment accumulation has fluctuated, from about 60 million tons p. a. during the Late Glacial (13,500-18,000 y. B. P, aeolian supply only) to about 33 million tons p. a. during the Holocene Climatic Optimum (6,000-9,000 y. B. P, mainly fluvial supply), when the river supply has reached a maximum, and to about 45 million tons p. a. during the last 4,000 years B. P. (fluvial supply only south of 18° N).

Phytoplankton-bacteria coupling under elevated CO2 levels: a stable isotope labelling study, 2010

The potential impact of rising carbon dioxide (CO2) on carbon transfer from phytoplankton to bacteria was investigated during the 2005 PeECE III mesocosm study in Bergen, Norway. Sets of mesocosms, in which a phytoplankton bloom was induced by nutrient addition, were incubated under 1x (~350 µatm), 2x (~700 µatm), and 3x present day CO2 (~1050 µatm) initial seawater and sustained atmospheric CO2 levels for 3 weeks. 13C labelled bicarbonate was added to all mesocosms to follow the transfer of carbon from dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) into phytoplankton and subsequently heterotrophic bacteria, and settling particles. Isotope ratios of polar-lipid-derived fatty acids (PLFA) were used to infer the biomass and production of phytoplankton and bacteria. Phytoplankton PLFA were enriched within one day after label addition, whilst it took another 3 days before bacteria showed substantial enrichment. Group-specific primary production measurements revealed that coccolithophores showed higher primary production than green algae and diatoms. Elevated CO2 had a significant positive effect on post-bloom biomass of green algae, diatoms, and bacteria. A simple model based on measured isotope ratios of phytoplankton and bacteria revealed that CO2 had no significant effect on the carbon transfer efficiency from phytoplankton to bacteria during the bloom. There was no indication of CO2 effects on enhanced settling based on isotope mixing models during the phytoplankton bloom, but this could not be determined in the post-bloom phase. Our results suggest that CO2effects are most pronounced in the post-bloom phase, under nutrient limitation.

Biogenic opal, carbonat concentrations and stable oxygen isotope ratios of foraminifera from sediment cores of the Southern Ocean

We present records of biogenic opal percentage and burial rate in 12 piston cores from the Atlantic and Indian sectors of the Southern Ocean. These records provide a detailed, quantitative description of changing patterns of opal deposition over the last 450 kyr. The striking regional coherence of these records suggests that dissolution in the deep sea and sediment pore waters does not obscure the surface productivity signal, and therefore these opal time series can be used in combination with other surface water tracers to make inferences about the chemistry and circulation of the Southern Ocean under different global climate conditions. Three broad depositional patterns can be distinguished. Northernmost records (39°-42°S latitude) are characterized by enhanced opal burial during glacial periods and strong 41 kyr periodicity. Records from cores just north of the present Antarctic Polar Front (46°-49°S) show even larger increases in opal burial rate during glacial intervals, but have variance concentrated in the 100 and 23 kyr bands. Southernmost records (51°-55°S) are completely out of phase with those to the north, with greatly reduced opal burial rates during glacial periods. Taken as a whole, the opal records show no evidence for the increased total Antarctic productivity predicted by recent geochemical models of atmospheric CO2 variability. The areal expansion of Southern Ocean sea ice over the present zone of high siliceous productivity provides one plausible explanation for the glacial-interglacial opal patterns. The excess silica not taken up in this zone during glacial periods would contribute to greater nutrient availability and thus higher productivity in the subantarctic region. However, local circulation changes may act to modify this basic signal, possibly accounting for the observed differences in the opal variance spectra.

Stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of planktonic foraminifera from the equatorial Atlantic

Carbon isotopic records of nutrient-depleted surface water place constraints on the past fertility of the oceans and on past atmospheric pCO2 levels. The best records of nutrient-depleted delta13C are obtained from planktonic foraminifera living in the thick mixed layers of the western equatorial and tropical Atlantic Ocean. We have produced a composite, stacked Globigerinoides sacculifer delta13C record from the equatorial Atlantic, which exhibits significant spectral power at the 100,000- and 41,000-year Milankovitch periods, but no power at the 23,000-year period. Similar to the record presented by Shackleton and Pisias [1985], surface-deep ocean Delta delta13C produced with the G. sacculifer record leads the delta18O ice volume record. However, the glacial-interglacial amplitudes of Delta delta13C differ between our record and Shackleton and Pisias [1985] record. Although large changes in Delta delta13C occur in the equatorial Atlantic during early stages of the last three glacial cycles, surface-deep Delta delta13C at glacial maxima (18O stage 2, late stage 6, and late stage 8) was only about 0.2? greater than during the subsequent interglacial. Our results imply that nutrient-driven pCO2 changes account for about one third of the pCO2 decrease observed in ice cores, and consequently, Delta delta13C should not be used as a proxy pCO2 index. Enough variance in the ice core pCO2 records remains to be explained that conclusions about pCO2 and ice volume phase relationships should also be reexamined. As much as 40 ppm pCO2 change still has not been accounted for by models of past physics and chemistry of the ocean.

Stable isotope ratios of planktonic foraminifera from North Atlantic surface sediments

We measured the oxygen isotopic composition of the deep-dwelling foraminiferal species G. inflata, G. truncatulinoides dextral and sinistral, and P. obliquiloculata in 29 modern core tops raised from the North Atlantic Ocean. We compared calculated isotopic temperatures with atlas temperatures and defined ecological models for each species. G. inflata and G. truncatulinoides live preferentially at the base of the seasonal thermocline. Under temperature stress, i.e., when the base of the seasonal thermocline is warmer than 16°C, G. inflata and G. truncatulinoides live deeper in the main thermocline. P. obliquiloculata inhabits the seasonal thermocline in warm regions. We tested our model using 10 cores along the Mauritanian upwelling and show that the comparison of d18O variations registered by the surficial species G. ruber and G. bulloides and the deep-dwelling species G. inflata evidences significant glacial-interglacial shifts of the Mauritanian upwelling cells.

Source localization of reaction-diffusion models for brain tumors

We propose a mathematically well-founded approach for locating the source (initial state) of density functions evolved within a nonlinear reaction-diffusion model. The reconstruction of the initial source is an ill-posed inverse problem since the solution is highly unstable with respect to measurement noise. To address this instability problem, we introduce a regularization procedure based on the nonlinear Landweber method for the stable determination of the source location. This amounts to solving a sequence of well-posed forward reaction-diffusion problems. The developed framework is general, and as a special instance we consider the problem of source localization of brain tumors. We show numerically that the source of the initial densities of tumor cells are reconstructed well on both imaging data consisting of simple and complex geometric structures.

Using Helix-coil Models to Study Protein Unfolded States

An abstract of a thesis devoted to using helix-coil models to study unfolded states.\\

Research on polypeptide unfolded states has received much more attention in the last decade or so than it has in the past. Unfolded states are thought to be implicated in various

misfolding diseases and likely play crucial roles in protein folding equilibria and folding rates. Structural characterization of unfolded states has proven to be

much more difficult than the now well established practice of determining the structures of folded proteins. This is largely because many core assumptions underlying

folded structure determination methods are invalid for unfolded states. This has led to a dearth of knowledge concerning the nature of unfolded state conformational

distributions. While many aspects of unfolded state structure are not well known, there does exist a significant body of work stretching back half a century that

has been focused on structural characterization of marginally stable polypeptide systems. This body of work represents an extensive collection of experimental

data and biophysical models associated with describing helix-coil equilibria in polypeptide systems. Much of the work on unfolded states in the last decade has not been devoted

specifically to the improvement of our understanding of helix-coil equilibria, which arguably is the most well characterized of the various conformational equilibria

that likely contribute to unfolded state conformational distributions. This thesis seeks to provide a deeper investigation of helix-coil equilibria using modern

statistical data analysis and biophysical modeling techniques. The studies contained within seek to provide deeper insights and new perspectives on what we presumably

know very well about protein unfolded states. \\

Chapter 1 gives an overview of recent and historical work on studying protein unfolded states. The study of helix-coil equilibria is placed in the context

of the general field of unfolded state research and the basics of helix-coil models are introduced.\\

Chapter 2 introduces the newest incarnation of a sophisticated helix-coil model. State of the art modern statistical techniques are employed to estimate the energies

of various physical interactions that serve to influence helix-coil equilibria. A new Bayesian model selection approach is utilized to test many long-standing

hypotheses concerning the physical nature of the helix-coil transition. Some assumptions made in previous models are shown to be invalid and the new model

exhibits greatly improved predictive performance relative to its predecessor. \\

Chapter 3 introduces a new statistical model that can be used to interpret amide exchange measurements. As amide exchange can serve as a probe for residue-specific

properties of helix-coil ensembles, the new model provides a novel and robust method to use these types of measurements to characterize helix-coil ensembles experimentally

and test the position-specific predictions of helix-coil models. The statistical model is shown to perform exceedingly better than the most commonly used

method for interpreting amide exchange data. The estimates of the model obtained from amide exchange measurements on an example helical peptide

also show a remarkable consistency with the predictions of the helix-coil model. \\

Chapter 4 involves a study of helix-coil ensembles through the enumeration of helix-coil configurations. Aside from providing new insights into helix-coil ensembles,

this chapter also introduces a new method by which helix-coil models can be extended to calculate new types of observables. Future work on this approach could potentially

allow helix-coil models to move into use domains that were previously inaccessible and reserved for other types of unfolded state models that were introduced in chapter 1.

Latent Space and Social Psychological Models of Diffusion

The problem of social diffusion has animated sociological thinking on topics ranging from the spread of an idea, an innovation or a disease, to the foundations of collective behavior and political polarization. While network diffusion has been a productive metaphor, the reality of diffusion processes is often muddier. Ideas and innovations diffuse differently from diseases, but, with a few exceptions, the diffusion of ideas and innovations has been modeled under the same assumptions as the diffusion of disease. In this dissertation, I develop two new diffusion models for "socially meaningful" contagions that address two of the most significant problems with current diffusion models: (1) that contagions can only spread along observed ties, and (2) that contagions do not change as they spread between people. I augment insights from these statistical and simulation models with an analysis of an empirical case of diffusion - the use of enterprise collaboration software in a large technology company. I focus the empirical study on when people abandon innovations, a crucial, and understudied aspect of the diffusion of innovations. Using timestamped posts, I analyze when people abandon software to a high degree of detail.

To address the first problem, I suggest a latent space diffusion model. Rather than treating ties as stable conduits for information, the latent space diffusion model treats ties as random draws from an underlying social space, and simulates diffusion over the social space. Theoretically, the social space model integrates both actor ties and attributes simultaneously in a single social plane, while incorporating schemas into diffusion processes gives an explicit form to the reciprocal influences that cognition and social environment have on each other. Practically, the latent space diffusion model produces statistically consistent diffusion estimates where using the network alone does not, and the diffusion with schemas model shows that introducing some cognitive processing into diffusion processes changes the rate and ultimate distribution of the spreading information. To address the second problem, I suggest a diffusion model with schemas. Rather than treating information as though it is spread without changes, the schema diffusion model allows people to modify information they receive to fit an underlying mental model of the information before they pass the information to others. Combining the latent space models with a schema notion for actors improves our models for social diffusion both theoretically and practically.

The empirical case study focuses on how the changing value of an innovation, introduced by the innovations' network externalities, influences when people abandon the innovation. In it, I find that people are least likely to abandon an innovation when other people in their neighborhood currently use the software as well. The effect is particularly pronounced for supervisors' current use and number of supervisory team members who currently use the software. This case study not only points to an important process in the diffusion of innovation, but also suggests a new approach -- computerized collaboration systems -- to collecting and analyzing data on organizational processes.

Middle Eocene Fe and Ca counts, Ca/Fe ratios, revised splices and astronomical age models form different Sites of IODP Exp342

Accurate age models are a tool of utmost important in paleoclimatology. Constraining the rate and pace of past climate change are at the core of paleoclimate research, as such knowledge is crucial to our understanding of the climate system. Indeed, it allows for the disentanglement of the various drivers of climate change. The scarcity of highly resolved sedimentary records from the middle Eocene (Bartonian - Lutetian Stages; 47.8 - 37.8 Ma) has led to the existence of the "Eocene astronomical time scale gap" and hindered the establishment of a comprehensive astronomical time scale (ATS) for the entire Cenozoic. Sediments from the Newfoundland Ridge drilled during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 342 span the Eocene gap at an unprecedented stratigraphic resolution with carbonate bearing sediments. Moreover, these sediments exhibit cyclic lithological changes that allow for an astronomical calibration of geologic time. In this study, we use the dominant obliquity imprint in XRF-derived calcium-iron ratio series (Ca/Fe) from three sites drilled during IODP Expedition 342 (U1408, U1409, U1410) to construct a floating astrochronology. We then anchor this chronology to numerical geological time by tuning 173-kyr cycles in the amplitude modulation pattern of obliquity to an astronomical solution. This study is one of the first to use the 173-kyr obliquity amplitude cycle for astrochronologic purposes, as previous studies primarily use the 405-kyr long eccentricity cycle as a tuning target to calibrate the Paleogene geologic time scale. We demonstrate that the 173-kyr cycles in obliquity's amplitude are stable between 40 and 50 Ma, which means that one can use the 173-kyr cycle for astrochronologic calibration in the Eocene. Our tuning provides new age estimates for magnetochron reversals C18n.1n - C21r and a stratigraphic framework for key sites from Expedition 342 for the Eocene. Some disagreements emerge when we compare our tuning for the interval between C19r and C20r with previous tuning attempts from the South Atlantic. We therefore present a revision of the original astronomical interpretations for the latter records, so that the various astrochronologic age models for the middle Eocene in the North- and South-Atlantic are consistent.