Model experiment on optimal size of a fish stock with environmental uncertainties

We analyze the effect of environmental uncertainties on optimal fishery management in a bio-economic fishery model. Unlike most of the literature on resource economics, but in line with ecological models, we allow the different biological processes of survival and recruitment to be affected differently by environmental uncertainties. We show that the overall effect of uncertainty on the optimal size of a fish stock is ambiguous, depending on the prudence of the value function. For the case of a risk-neutral fishery manager, the overall effect depends on the relative magnitude of two opposing effects, the 'convex-cost effect' and the 'gambling effect'. We apply the analysis to the Baltic cod and the North Sea herring fisheries, concluding that for risk neutral agents the net effect of environmental uncertainties on the optimal size of these fish stocks is negative, albeit small in absolute value. Under risk aversion, the effect on optimal stock size is positive for sufficiently high coefficients of constant relative risk aversion.

(Table 3) Air temperatures, and snow and ice characteristics of fresh and brackish water lakes in the Northwest Territories, Canada

The algorithms designed to estimate snow water equivalent (SWE) using passive microwave measurements falter in lake-rich high-latitude environments due to the emission properties of ice covered lakes on low frequency measurements. Microwave emission models have been used to simulate brightness temperatures (Tbs) for snowpack characteristics in terrestrial environments but cannot be applied to snow on lakes because of the differing subsurface emissivities and scattering matrices present in ice. This paper examines the performance of a modified version of the Helsinki University of Technology (HUT) snow emission model that incorporates microwave emission from lake ice and sub-ice water. Inputs to the HUT model include measurements collected over brackish and freshwater lakes north of Inuvik, Northwest Territories, Canada in April 2008, consisting of snowpack (depth, density, and snow water equivalent) and lake ice (thickness and ice type). Coincident airborne radiometer measurements at a resolution of 80x100 m were used as ground-truth to evaluate the simulations. The results indicate that subsurface media are simulated best when utilizing a modeled effective grain size and a 1 mm RMS surface roughness at the ice/water interface compared to using measured grain size and a flat Fresnel reflective surface as input. Simulations at 37 GHz (vertical polarization) produce the best results compared to airborne Tbs, with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 6.2 K and 7.9 K, as well as Mean Bias Errors (MBEs) of -8.4 K and -8.8 K for brackish and freshwater sites respectively. Freshwater simulations at 6.9 and 19 GHz H exhibited low RMSE (10.53 and 6.15 K respectively) and MBE (-5.37 and 8.36 K respectively) but did not accurately simulate Tb variability (R= -0.15 and 0.01 respectively). Over brackish water, 6.9 GHz simulations had poor agreement with airborne Tbs, while 19 GHz V exhibited a low RMSE (6.15 K), MBE (-4.52 K) and improved relative agreement to airborne measurements (R = 0.47). Salinity considerations reduced 6.9 GHz errors substantially, with a drop in RMSE from 51.48 K and 57.18 K for H and V polarizations respectively, to 26.2 K and 31.6 K, although Tb variability was not well simulated. With best results at 37 GHz, HUT simulations exhibit the potential to track Tb evolution, and therefore SWE through the winter season.

Nd isotope composition of fossil fish teeth of ODP Hole 119-738B

We report an optimized method for extracting neodymium (Nd) from fossil fish teeth with a single-stage column (125 µl stem volume; LN Resin, Eichrom Industries, Darien Illinois) for isotopic analysis by multi-collector inductively coupled mass spectrometry (MC-ICMPS). Three reference materials (basalt: BCR-2, BHVO-2; phosphate: fossil bone composite) and splits of fossil fish teeth samples previously processed with existing two-stage column methods were processed using the single-stage column method. 143Nd/144Nd values of reference materials agree within error with published values, and the values for fish teeth correspond with sample splits processed with two-stage columns. Precision to ± ~0.23 epsilon-Nd was achieved for 30 ng Nd samples of reference materials, and Nd isotope measurements of fossil fish tooth sample replicates as small as 7 ng Nd were reproducible within long term instrumental uncertainty. We demonstrate the utility of the new method with the first high resolution Nd isotope record spanning the ~40.0 Ma middle Eocene Climatic Optimum, which shows an excursion of 0.65 epsilon-Nd during the peak warming at the study site (Ocean Drilling Program Leg 119, Site 738; 30 kyr sample spacing from 40.3 to 39.6 Ma). LN Resin is already used in standard methods for separating Nd, and Nd isotopes are routinely measured by MC-ICPMS with high efficiency inlet systems. Our innovation is a single, small volume LN Resin column for Nd separation. The streamlined approach results in a 10X increase in sample throughput.