950 resultados para Species Distribution Modeling


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Forest trees, like oaks, rely on high levels of genetic variation to adapt to varying environmental conditions. Thus, genetic variation and its distribution are important for the long-term survival and adaptability of oak populations. Climate change is projected to lead to increased drought and fire events as well as a northward migration of tree species, including oaks. Additionally, decline in oak regeneration has become increasingly concerning since it may lead to decreased gene flow and increased inbreeding levels. This will in turn lead to lowered levels of genetic diversity, negatively affecting the growth and survival of populations. At the same time, populations at the speciesdistribution edge, like those in this study, could possess important stores of genetic diversity and adaptive potential, while also being vulnerable to climatic or anthropogenic changes. A survey of the level and distribution of genetic variation and identification of potentially adaptive genes is needed since adaptive genetic variation is essential for their long-term survival. Oaks possess a remarkable characteristic in that they maintain their species identity and specific environmental adaptations despite their propensity to hybridize. Thus, in the face of interspecific gene flow, some areas of the genome remain differentiated due to selection. This characteristic allows the study of local environmental adaptation through genetic variation analyses. Furthermore, using genic markers with known putative functions makes it possible to link those differentiated markers to potential adaptive traits (e.g., flowering time, drought stress tolerance). Demographic processes like gene flow and genetic drift also play an important role in how genes (including adaptive genes) are maintained or spread. These processes are influenced by disturbances, both natural and anthropogenic. An examination of how genetic variation is geographically distributed can display how these genetic processes and geographical disturbances influence genetic variation patterns. For example, the spatial clustering of closely related trees could promote inbreeding with associated negative effects (inbreeding depression), if gene flow is limited. In turn this can have negative consequences for a species’ ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions. In contrast, interspecific hybridization may also allow the transfer of genes between species that increase their adaptive potential in a changing environment. I have studied the ecologically divergent, interfertile red oaks, Quercus rubra and Q. ellipsoidalis, to identify genes with potential roles in adaptation to abiotic stress through traits such as drought tolerance and flowering time, and to assess the level and distribution of genetic variation. I found evidence for moderate gene flow between the two species and low interspecific genetic differences at most genetic markers (Lind and Gailing 2013). However, the screening of genic markers with potential roles in phenology and drought tolerance led to the identification of a CONSTANS-like (COL) gene, a candidate gene for flowering time and growth. This marker, located in the coding region of the gene, was highly differentiated between the two species in multiple geographical areas, despite interspecific gene flow, and may play a role in reproductive isolation and adaptive divergence between the two species (Lind-Riehl et al. 2014). Since climate change could result in a northward migration of trees species like oaks, this gene could be important in maintaining species identity despite increased contact zones between species (e.g., increased gene flow). Finally I examined differences in spatial genetic structure (SGS) and genetic variation between species and populations subjected to different management strategies and natural disturbances. Diverse management activities combined with various natural disturbances as well as species specific life history traits influenced SGS patterns and inbreeding levels (Lind-Riehl and Gailing submitted).

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Understanding factors that affect the distribution and abundance of species is critical to developing effective management plans for conservation. Our goal was to quantify the distribution and abundance of Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis), a threatened old-forest associate in Alberta, Canada. The Canada Warbler has declined across its range, including in Alberta where habitat loss and alteration from urban expansion, forestry, and energy development are changing the forest landscape. We used 110,427 point count survey visits from 32,287 unique survey stations to model local-level (150-m radius circular buffers) and stand-level (564-m radius circular buffers) habitat associations of the Canada Warbler. We found that habitat supporting higher densities of Canada Warblers was locally concentrated yet broadly distributed across Alberta’s boreal forest region. Canada Warblers were most commonly associated with older deciduous forest at the local scale, particularly near small, incised streams, and greater amounts of deciduous forest at the stand scale. Predicted density was lower in other forest types and younger age classes measured at the local scale. There was little evidence that local-scale fragmentation (i.e., edges created by linear features) influenced Canada Warbler abundance. However, current forestry practices in the province likely will reduce the availability of Canada Warbler habitat over time by cutting old deciduous forest stands. Our results suggest that conservation efforts aimed at Canada Warbler focus on retaining large stands of old deciduous forest, specifically stands adjacent to streams, by increasing the width of deciduous retention buffers along streams during harvest and increasing the size and number of old forest residual patches in harvested stands.

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Aim Chorological relationships describe the patterns of distributional overlap among species. In addition to revealing biogeographical structure, the resulting clusters of species with similar geographical distributions can serve as natural units in conservation planning. Here, we assess the extent to which temporal, methodological and taxonomical differences in the source of speciesdistribution data can affect the relationships that are found.

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Although on a local scale Iberian lynx distribution is determined by the availability of prey rabbits, recent modelling analyses have uncovered broad-scale disagreements between these two speciesdistribution trends. These analyses showed also that the lynx had become restricted to only a fraction of the rabbit’s genetic diversity, and that this could be jeopardising its survival in the face of environmental hazards and uncertainty. In the present paper, a follow-up was carried out through the building of lynx and rabbit distribution models based on the most recent Spanish mammal atlas. Environmental favourability values for lynx and rabbit were positively correlated within the lynx’s current distribution area, but they were negatively correlated within the total Spanish area where lynx used to occur in the 1980’s. Environmental favourability for rabbits was significantly higher where lynx maintains reproductive populations than where it recently disappeared, indicating that rabbit favourability plays an important role and can be a good predictor of lynx persistence. The lynx and rabbit models were extrapolated to predict favourable areas for both species in Spain as well as in Portugal, on the original scale of the distribution data (10x10 km) and on a 100 times finer spatial resolution (1x1 km). The lynx and rabbit models were also combined through fuzzy logic to forecast the potential for lynx occurrence incorporating information on favourable areas for its main prey. Several areas are proposed as favourable for lynx expansion or re-introduction,

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Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this speciesdistribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.

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The taxonomy of the genus Heliotropium L. in Brazil was studied, revealing nine species and two varieties: H. amplexicaule Vahl, H. angiospermum Murray, H. curassavicum L., H. curassavicum var. argentinum I.M. Johnst., H. elongatum (Lehm.) I.M. Johnst., H. elongatum var. burchellii I.M. Johnst., H. indicum L., H. leiocarpum Morong, H. nicotianaefolium Poir., H. phylicoides Cham. and H. transalpinum Vell. Descriptions, illustrations, comments on relationships based on morphology and data on species distribution are presented.

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Em Pedregulho, município do extremo nordeste do Estado de São Paulo, ocorrem fragmentos de cerrado considerados floristicamente distintos dos demais remanescentes paulistas. Nesse estudo, foi realizado um levantamento florístico em Pedregulho, abordando duas regiões geologicamente distintas: o Parque Estadual das Furnas do Bom Jesus e o distrito de Estreito. Em cada uma, delimitaram-se duas parcelas de 50×50 m, totalizando um hectare, onde foram encontradas 65 famílias e 379 espécies de angiospermas. Coletas em áreas adjacentes totalizaram 71 famílias e 443 espécies. As duas regiões estudadas têm baixa similaridade florística entre si. A distribuição geográfica das espécies é analisada e oito padrões são delimitados para aquelas cuja distribuição no Estado de São Paulo é restrita à região de Pedregulho.

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Background: Freshwaters are the most threatened ecosystems on earth. Although recent assessments provide data on global priority regions for freshwater conservation, local scale priorities remain unknown. Refining the scale of global biodiversity assessments (both at terrestrial and freshwater realms) and translating these into conservation priorities on the ground remains a major challenge to biodiversity science, and depends directly on species occurrence data of high taxonomic and geographic resolution. Brazil harbors the richest freshwater ichthyofauna in the world, but knowledge on endemic areas and conservation in Brazilian rivers is still scarce. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using data on environmental threats and revised species distribution data we detect and delineate 540 small watershed areas harboring 819 restricted-range fishes in Brazil. Many of these areas are already highly threatened, as 159 (29%) watersheds have lost more than 70% of their original vegetation cover, and only 141 (26%) show significant overlap with formally protected areas or indigenous lands. We detected 220 (40%) critical watersheds overlapping hydroelectric dams or showing both poor formal protection and widespread habitat loss; these sites harbor 344 endemic fish species that may face extinction if no conservation action is in place in the near future. Conclusions/Significance: We provide the first analysis of site-scale conservation priorities in the richest freshwater ecosystems of the globe. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that freshwater biodiversity has been neglected in former conservation assessments. The study provides a simple and straightforward method for detecting freshwater priority areas based on endemism and threat, and represents a starting point for integrating freshwater and terrestrial conservation in representative and biogeographically consistent site-scale conservation strategies, that may be scaled-up following naturally linked drainage systems. Proper management (e. g. forestry code enforcement, landscape planning) and conservation (e. g. formal protection) of the 540 watersheds detected herein will be decisive in avoiding species extinction in the richest aquatic ecosystems on the planet.

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(Notes on Acaulospora bireticulata Rothwell & Trappe and first record of Acaulospora koskei Blask. from Brazil). Our knowledge of species distribution in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) is still limited and morphological variations found in isolates of one species may provide additional insight for understanding the characters used in the taxonomy of this group. The aims of this work were to expand biogeographical data regarding Acaulospora koskei Blaszk. and Acaulospora bireticulata Rothwell & Trappe, both found in an Araucaria Forest in Sao Paulo state, Brazil, as well as to compare the descriptions of these species with those of other similar AMF.

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Wildlife-habitat models are an important tool in wildlife management toda?, and by far the majority of these predict aspects of species distribution (abundance or presence) as a proxy measure of habitat quality. Unfortunately, few are tested on independent data, and of those that are, few show useful predictive st;ill. We demonstrate that six critical assumptions underlie distribution based wildlife-habitat models, all of which must be valid for the model to predict habitat quality. We outline these assumptions in a mete-model, and discuss methods for their validation. Even where all sis assumptions show a high level of validity, there is still a strong likelihood that the model will not predict habitat quality. However, the meta-model does suggest habitat quality can be predicted more accurately if distributional data are ignored, and variables more indicative of habitat quality are modelled instead.

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The development of biomonitoring programs based on the macroinvertebrate community requires the understanding of species distribution patterns, as well as of the responses of the community to anthropogenic stressors. In this study, 49 metrics were tested as potential means of assessing the condition of 29 first- and second-order streams located in areas of differing types of land use in So Paulo State, Brazil. Of the sampled streams, 15 were in well-preserved regions in the Atlantic Forest, 5 were among sugarcane cultivations, 5 were in areas of pasture, and 4 were among eucalyptus plantations. The metrics were assessed against the following criteria: (1) predictable response to the impact of human activity; (2) highest taxonomic resolution, and (3) operational and theoretical simplicity. We found that 18 metrics were correlated with the environmental and spatial predictors used, and seven of these satisfied the selection criteria and are thus candidates for inclusion in a multimetric system to assess low-order streams in So Paulo State. These metrics are family richness; Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) richness; proportion of Megaloptera and Hirudinea; proportion of EPT; Shannon diversity index for genus; and adapted Biological Monitoring Work Party biotic index.

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Eucalyptus savannas on low nutrient soils are being extensively cleared in Queensland. In this paper we provide background information relevant to understanding nutrient (particularly nitrogen) dynamics in sub/tropical savanna, and review the available evidence relevant to understanding the potential impact of clearing Eucalyptus savanna on nutrient relations. The limited evidence presently available can be used to argue for the extreme positions that: (i) woody vegetation competes with grasses Cor resources. and tree/shrub clearing improves pasture production, (ii) woody vegetation benefits pasture production. At present, the lack of fundamental knowledge about Australian savanna nutrient relations makes accurate predictions about medium- and long-term effects of clearing on nutrient relations in low nutrient savannas difficult. The future of cleared savannas will differ if herbaceous species maintain all functions that woody vegetation has previously held, or if woody species have functions distinct from those of herbaceous vegetation. Research suggests that savanna soils are susceptible to nitrate leaching, and that trees improve the nutrient status of savanna soils in some situations. The nitrogen capital of cleared savanna is at risk if mobile ions are not captured efficiently by the vegetation. and nitrogen input via N-2 fixation from vegetation and microbiotic crusts is reduced. In order to predict clearing effects on savanna nutrient relations, research should be directed to answering (i) how open or closed nutrient cycles are in natural and cleared savanna, (ii) which functions are performed by savanna constituents such as woody and herbaceous vegetation, native and exotic plant species. termites, and microbiotic 7 crusts in relation to nutrient cycles. In the absence of detailed knowledge about savanna functioning, clearing carries the risk of promoting continuous nutrient depiction.

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Jornadas "Ciência nos Açores – que futuro?", Ponta Delgada, 7-8 de Junho de 2013.

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In this paper, we present a comparison of richness patterns and floristic similarity for bryophytes in the five most important altitudinal habitat types in the Macaronesian islands. We evaluate the importance of different factors discussed in the literature in predicting species diversity applying the traditional island approach and within the framework of the new habitat approach, including area, isolation, climatic factors, geological age and human influence. From the analysis of patterns of bryophyte species distribution for selected habitats across islands and archipelagos, we specifically test the hypothesis that (i) floristic similarity is primarily determined by climatic factors, but not by geographical distance due to high dispersal ability in this species group and (ii) bryophyte richness is best predicted by area, but not by geological age of the habitat due to very low endemicity or speciation rate and high colonization rate.

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Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica