A multimodel assessment of the influence of regional anthropogenic emission reductions on aerosol direct radiative forcing and the role of intercontinental transport

In this study, we assess changes of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) in response to the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in four major pollution regions in the Northern Hemisphere by using results from nine global models in the framework of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP). DRF at top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface is estimated based on AOD results from the HTAP models and AOD-normalized DRF (NDRF) from a chemical transport model. The multimodel results show that, on average, a 20% reduction of anthropogenic emissions in North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia lowers the global mean AOD (all-sky TOA DRF) by 9.2% (9.0%), 3.5% (3.0%), and 9.4% (10.0%) for sulfate, particulate organic matter (POM), and black carbon (BC), respectively. Global annual average TOA all-sky forcing efficiency relative to particle or gaseous precursor emissions from the four regions (expressed as multimodel mean ± one standard deviation) is  ±3.5 ±0.8,  ±4.0 ±1.7, and 29.5 ±18.1mWm ±2 per Tg for sulfate (relative to SO2), POM, and BC, respectively. The impacts of the regional emission reductions on AOD and DRF extend well beyond the source regions because of intercontinental transport (ICT). On an annual basis, ICT accounts for 11 ±5% to 31 ±9% of AOD and DRF in a receptor region at continental or subcontinental scale, with domestic emissions accounting for the remainder, depending on regions and species. For sulfate AOD, the largest ICT contribution of 31 ±9% occurs in South Asia, which is dominated by the emissions from Europe. For BC AOD, the largest ICT contribution of 28 ±18% occurs in North America, which is dominated by the emissions from East Asia. The large spreads among models highlight the need to improve aerosol processes in models, and evaluate and constrain models with observations.

Snakebite and its socio-economic impact on the rural population of Tamil Nadu, India

BACKGROUND: Snakebite represents a significant health issue worldwide, affecting several million people each year with as many as 95,000 deaths. India is considered to be the country most affected, but much remains unknown about snakebite incidence in this country, its socio-economic impact and how snakebite management could be improved. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a study within rural villages in Tamil Nadu, India, which combines a household survey (28,494 people) of snakebite incidence with a more detailed survey of victims in order to understand the health and socio-economic effects of the bite, the treatments obtained and their views about future improvements. Our survey suggests that snakebite incidence is higher than previously reported. 3.9% of those surveyed had suffered from snakebite and the number of deaths corresponds to 0.45% of the population. The socio-economic impact of this is very considerable in terms of the treatment costs and the long-term effects on the health and ability of survivors to work. To reduce this, the victims recommended improvements to the accessibility and affordability of antivenom treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Snakebite has a considerable and disproportionate impact on rural populations, particularly in South Asia. This study provides an incentive for researchers and the public to work together to reduce the incidence and improve the outcomes for snake bite victims and their families.

Translation and usability of autism screening and diagnostic tools for autism spectrum conditions in India

There is a critical need for screening and diagnostic tools (SDT) for autism spectrum conditions (ASC) in regional languages in South Asia. To address this, we translated four widely used SDT (Social Communication Disorder Checklist, Autism Spectrum Quotient, Social Communication Questionnaire, and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule) into Bengali and Hindi, two main regional languages (∼ 360 million speakers), and tested their usability in children with and without ASC. We found a significant difference in scores between children with ASC (n = 45 in Bengali, n = 40 in Hindi) and typically developing children (n = 43 in Bengali, n = 42 in Hindi) on all SDTs. These results demonstrate that these SDTs are usable in South Asia, and constitute an important resource for epidemiology research and clinical diagnosis in the region.

Radiative forcing and climate metrics for ozone precursor emissions: the impact of multi-model averaging

Multi-model ensembles are frequently used to assess understanding of the response of ozone and methane lifetime to changes in emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx, VOCs (volatile organic compounds) and CO. When these ozone changes are used to calculate radiative forcing (RF) (and climate metrics such as the global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature-change potential (GTP)) there is a methodological choice, determined partly by the available computing resources, as to whether the mean ozone (and methane) concentration changes are input to the radiation code, or whether each model's ozone and methane changes are used as input, with the average RF computed from the individual model RFs. We use data from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution source–receptor global chemical transport model ensemble to assess the impact of this choice for emission changes in four regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia). We conclude that using the multi-model mean ozone and methane responses is accurate for calculating the mean RF, with differences up to 0.6% for CO, 0.7% for VOCs and 2% for NOx. Differences of up to 60% for NOx 7% for VOCs and 3% for CO are introduced into the 20 year GWP. The differences for the 20 year GTP are smaller than for the GWP for NOx, and similar for the other species. However, estimates of the standard deviation calculated from the ensemble-mean input fields (where the standard deviation at each point on the model grid is added to or subtracted from the mean field) are almost always substantially larger in RF, GWP and GTP metrics than the true standard deviation, and can be larger than the model range for short-lived ozone RF, and for the 20 and 100 year GWP and 100 year GTP. The order of averaging has most impact on the metrics for NOx, as the net values for these quantities is the residual of the sum of terms of opposing signs. For example, the standard deviation for the 20 year GWP is 2–3 times larger using the ensemble-mean fields than using the individual models to calculate the RF. The source of this effect is largely due to the construction of the input ozone fields, which overestimate the true ensemble spread. Hence, while the average of multi-model fields are normally appropriate for calculating mean RF, GWP and GTP, they are not a reliable method for calculating the uncertainty in these fields, and in general overestimate the uncertainty.

Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) scoping study: Annex 3 - Early warning system and risk assessment case studies

This report provides case studies of Early Warning Systems (EWSs) and risk assessments encompassing three main hazard types: drought; flood and cyclone. The case studies are taken from ten countries across three continents (focusing on Africa, South Asia and the Caribbean). The case studies have been developed to assist the UK Department for International Development (DFID) to prioritise areas for Early Warning System (EWS) related research under their ‘Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience’ (SHEAR) programme. The aim of these case studies is to ensure that DFID SHEAR research is informed by the views of Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) and communities engaged with Early Warning Systems and risk assessments (including community-based Early Warning Systems). The case studies highlight a number of challenges facing Early Warning Systems (EWSs). These challenges relate to financing; integration; responsibilities; community interpretation; politics; dissemination; accuracy; capacity and focus. The case studies summarise a number of priority areas for EWS related research: • Priority 1: Contextualising and localising early warning information • Priority 2: Climate proofing current EWSs • Priority 3: How best to sustain effective EWSs between hazard events? • Priority 4: Optimising the dissemination of risk and warning information • Priority 5: Governance and financing of EWSs • Priority 6: How to support EWSs under challenging circumstances • Priority 7: Improving EWSs through monitoring and evaluating the impact and effectiveness of those systems

Nonhuman empires

The themed section “Nonhuman Empires” contributes to a critique of anthropocentrism in the field of imperial history. It reveals the variety of ways in which the historical trajectories of nonhuman animals and empires both intersected and informed one another. Beyond merely rehabilitating nonhuman themes in conversations about imperial history, it provides a platform for rethinking both nonhumans and empires as they are envisioned conventionally in the historiography. This introductory article begins by situating this special section as a conversation between science studies and animal studies, on the one hand, and the historiography of empires, on the other. It then suggests ways to reconceptualize agency, subjects, nonhumans, and empire by combining certain shared concerns of subaltern studies and actor-network theory. Finally, it emphasizes the need to integrate postcolonial critiques with emerging scholarship about the posthuman.

Of tropics, prisons and bicycles: a conversation with David Arnold

David Arnold who retired this year as the Professor of Asian and Global History at the University of Warwick remains one of the most prolific historians of colonial medicine and modern South Asia. A founding member of the subaltern studies collective, he is considered widely as a pioneer in the histories of colonial medicine, environment, penology, hunger and famines within South Asian studies and beyond. In this interview he recalls his formative inspirations, ideological motivations and reflects critically on his earlier works, explaining various shifts as well as map- ping the possible course of future work. He talks at length about his forthcoming works on everyday technology, food and monsoon Asia. Finally, he shares with us his desire of initiating work on an ambitious project about the twin themes of poison and poverty in South Asian his- tory, beginning with the Bengal famine in the late eighteenth century and ending with the Bhopal gas tragedy of the early 1980s. This conversation provides insights into the ways in which the field of medical history in modern South Asia has been shaped over the past three decades through interactions with broader discussions on agency, resistance, power, everydayness, subal- tern studies, global and spatial histories. It hints further at the newer directions which are being opened up by such persisting intellectual entanglements.

Participatory crop improvement: the challenges of and opportunities for institutionalisation in the Indian public research sector

This thesis considers Participatory Crop Improvement (PCI) methodologies and examines the reasons behind their continued contestation and limited mainstreaming in conventional modes of crop improvement research within National Agricultural Research Systems (NARS). In particular, it traces the experiences of a long-established research network with over 20 years of experience in developing and implementing PCI methods across South Asia, and specifically considers its engagement with the Indian NARS and associated state-level agricultural research systems. In order to address the issues surrounding PCI institutionalisation processes, a novel conceptual framework was derived from a synthesis of the literatures on Strategic Niche Management (SNM) and Learning-based Development Approaches (LBDA) to analyse the socio-technical processes and structures which constitute the PCI ‘niche’ and NARS ‘regime’. In examining the niche and regime according to their socio-technical characteristics, the framework provides explanatory power for understanding the nature of their interactions and the opportunities and barriers that exist with respect to the translation of lessons and ideas between niche and regime organisations. The research shows that in trying to institutionalise PCI methods and principles within NARS in the Indian context, PCI proponents have encountered a number of constraints related to the rigid and hierarchical structure of the regime organisations; the contractual mode of most conventional research, which inhibits collaboration with a wider group of stakeholders; and the time-limited nature of PCI projects themselves, which limits investment and hinders scaling up of the innovations. It also reveals that while the niche projects may be able to induce a ‘weak’ form of PCI institutionalisation within the Indian NARS by helping to alter their institutional culture to be more supportive of participatory plant breeding approaches and future collaboration with PCI researchers, a ‘strong’ form of PCI institutionalisation, in which NARS organisations adopt participatory methodologies to address all their crop improvement agenda, is likely to remain outside of the capacity of PCI development projects to deliver.

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.

The Usefulness of Caries Frequency, Depth, and Location in Determining Cariogenicity and Past Subsistence: A Test on Early and Later Agriculturalists From the Peruvian Coast

Dental markers have been used to unravel particularities of paleodiet, subsistence, social structure, and health. This article aims to compare oral pathology among four pre-Columbian groups with different degrees of agricultural and socio-cultural development but comparable ecological conditions who lived on the coastal desert of Peru. Three of these groups are assigned to distinct phases of the Formative Period (2500-1 BC), a time critical for our understanding of the development of agriculture and social complexity. The fourth group corresponds to the Late Intermediate Period (1000-1470 AD), when agriculture had its apogee and society was highly stratified. In this study we test whether there is an increase (1) in the frequency of carious lesions and (2) in caries depth, and (3) if there is a shift from occlusal to extra-occlusal caries locations with the development of agriculture. Therefore, we analyze the frequencies of carious lesions and antemortem tooth loss (AMTL), the caries distributions by age, sex, and type of tooth, as well as the tissues affected by, and the location of the carious lesions. Since there are no significant differences in the frequencies of carious lesions and AMTL between the groups, we reject hypothesis 1. In contrast, caries depth does increase, and caries location changes from occlusal to extra-occlusal sites with agricultural development. However, we can only corroborate hypothesis 2 and 3 when taking into consideration dental wear. Thus, we recommend that caries depth and locations should be used with evaluations of dental wear to reconstruct subsistence in ancient populations. Am J Phys Anthropol 143:75-91, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Extensive microsatellite diversity in the human malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax

The population structure of Plasmodium vivax remains elusive. The markers of choice for large-scale population genetic studies of eukaryotes, short tandem repeats known as microsatellites, have been recently reported to be less polymorphic in R vivax. Here we investigate the microsatellite diversity and geographic structure in P vivax, at both local and global levels, using 14 new markers consisting of tri- or tetranucleotide repeats. The local-level analysis, which involved 50 field isolates from Sri Lanka, revealed unexpectedly high diversity (average virtual heterozygosity [H-E], 0.807) and significant multilocus linkage disequilibrium in this region of low malaria endemicity. Multiple-clone infections occurred in 60% of isolates sampled in 2005. The global-level analysis of field isolates or monkey-adapted strains identified 150 unique haplotypes among 164 parasites from four continents. Individual P. vivax isolates could not be unambiguously assigned to geographic populations. For example, we found relatively low divergence among parasites from Central America, Africa, Southeast Asia and Oceania, but substantial differentiation between parasites from the same continent (South Asia and Southeast Asia) or even from the same country (Brazil). Parasite relapses, which may extend the duration of P. vivax carriage in humans, are suggested to facilitate the spread of strains across continents, breaking down any pre-existing geographic structure. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rheology and fluid dynamics properties of sugarcane juice

The sugarcane juice is a relatively low-cost agricultural resource, abundant in South Asia, Central America and Brazil, with vast applications in producing ethanol biofuel. In that way, a good knowledge of the rheological properties of this raw material is of crucial importance when designing and optimizing unit operations involved in its processing. In this work, the rheological behavior of untreated (USCJ, 17.9 °Brix), clarified (CSCJ, 18.2 °Brix) and mixed (MSCJ, 18.0 °Brix) sugarcane juices was studied at the temperature range from 277K to 373K, using a cone-and-plate viscometer. These fluids were found to present a Newtonian behavior and their flow curves were well-fitted by the viscosity Newtonian model. Viscosity values lied within the range 5.0×10 -3Pas to 0.04×10 -3Pas in the considered temperature interval. The dependence of the viscosity on the temperature was also successfully modeled through an Arrhenius-type equation. In addition to the dynamic viscosity, experimental values of pressure loss in tube flow were used to calculate friction factors. The good agreement between predicted and measured values confirmed the reliability of the proposed equations for describing the flow behavior of the clarified and untreated sugarcane juices. © 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Dental health in Northern Chile's Atacama oases: Evaluating the Middle Horizon (AD 500-1000) impact on local diet

As one of the few areas apt for horticulture in Northern Chile's arid landscape, the prehistory of the Atacama oases is deeply enmeshed with that of the inter-regional networks that promoted societal development in the south central Andes. During the Middle Horizon (AD 5001000), local populations experienced a cultural apex associated with a substantial increase in inter-regional interaction, population density, and quantity and quality of mortuary assemblages. Here, we test if this cultural peak affected dietary practices equally among the distinct local groups of this period. We examine caries prevalence and the degree of occlusal wear in four series recovered from three cemeteries. Our results show a reduction in the prevalence of caries for males among an elite subsample from Solcor 3 and the later Coyo 3 cemeteries. Dental wear tends to increase over time with the Late Middle Horizon/Late Intermediate Period cemetery of Quitor 6 showing a higher average degree of wear. When considered in concert with archaeological information, we concluded that the Middle Horizon was marked by dietary variability wherein some populations were able to obtain better access to protein sources (e.g., camelid meat). Not all members of Atacameno society benefited from this, as we note that this dietary change only affected men. Our results suggest that the benefits brought to the San Pedro oases during the Middle Horizon were not equally distributed among local groups and that social status, relationship to the Tiwanaku polity, and interment in particular cemeteries affected dietary composition. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2012. (C) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Lagrangian transport evaluation of atmospheric chemistry in the Mediterranean region

Global observations of the chemical composition of the atmosphere are essential for understanding and studying the present and future state of the earth's atmosphere. However, by analyzing field experiments the consideration of the atmospheric motion is indispensable, because transport enables different chemical species, with different local natural and anthropogenic sources, to interact chemically and so consequently influences the chemical composition of the atmosphere. The distance over which that transport occurs is highly dependent upon meteorological conditions (e.g., wind speed, precipitation) and the properties of chemical species itself (e.g., solubility, reactivity). This interaction between chemistry and dynamics makes the study of atmospheric chemistry both difficult and challenging, and also demonstrates the relevance of including the atmospheric motions in that context. In this doctoral thesis the large-scale transport of air over the eastern Mediterranean region during summer 2001, with a focus on August during the Mediterranean Intensive Oxidant Study (MINOS) measurement campaign, was investigated from a lagrangian perspective. Analysis of back trajectories demonstrated transport of polluted air masses from western and eastern Europe in the boundary layer, from the North Atlantic/North American area in the middle end upper troposphere and additionally from South Asia in the upper troposphere towards the eastern Mediterranean. Investigation of air mass transport near the tropopause indicated enhanced cross-tropopause transport relative to the surrounding area over the eastern Mediterranean region in summer. A large band of air mass transport across the dynamical tropopause develops in June, and is shifted toward higher latitudes in July and August. This shifting is associated with the development and the intensification of the Arabian and South Asian upper-level anticyclones and consequential with areas of maximum clear-air turbulence, hypothesizing quasi-permanent areas with turbulent mixing of tropospheric and stratospheric air during summer over the eastern Mediterranean as a result of large-scale synoptic circulation. In context with the latex knowledge about the transport of polluted air masses towards the Mediterranean and with increasing emissions, especially in developing countries like India, this likely gains in importance.