Efficiency comparison of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) to standard Monte Carlo Simulation (sMC) for extreme event scenarios

Standard Monte Carlo (sMC) simulation models have been widely used in AEC industry research to address system uncertainties. Although the benefits of probabilistic simulation analyses over deterministic methods are well documented, the sMC simulation technique is quite sensitive to the probability distributions of the input variables. This phenomenon becomes highly pronounced when the region of interest within the joint probability distribution (a function of the input variables) is small. In such cases, the standard Monte Carlo approach is often impractical from a computational standpoint. In this paper, a comparative analysis of standard Monte Carlo simulation to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) is presented. The MCMC/ss technique constitutes a more complex simulation method (relative to sMC), wherein a structured sampling algorithm is employed in place of completely randomized sampling. Consequently, gains in computational efficiency can be made. The two simulation methods are compared via theoretical case studies.

Molecular dynamics simulation of mechanical behavior of osteopontin-hydroxyapatite interfaces

Bone is characterized with an optimized combination of high stiffness and toughness. The understanding of bone nanomechanics is critical to the development of new artificial biological materials with unique properties. In this work, the mechanical characteristics of the interfaces between osteopontin (OPN, a noncollagenous protein in extrafibrillar protein matrix) and hydroxyapatite (HA, a mineral nanoplatelet in mineralized collagen fibrils) were investigated using molecular dynamics method. We found that the interfacial mechanical behaviour is governed by the electrostatic attraction between acidic amino acid residues in OPN and calcium in HA. Higher energy dissipation is associated with the OPN peptides with a higher number of acidic amino acid residues. When loading in the interface direction, new bonds between some acidic residues and HA surface are formed, resulting in a stick-slip type motion of OPN peptide on the HA surface and high interfacial energy dissipation. The formation of new bonds during loading is considered to be a key mechanism responsible for high fracture resistance observed in bone and other biological materials.

Motor controller simulation and embedded implementation for a blood pump

This study was a step forward in modeling, simulation and microcontroller implementation of a high performance control algorithm for the motor of a blood pump. The rotor angle is sensed using three Hall effect sensors and an algorithm is developed to obtain better angular resolution from the three signals for better discrete-time updates of the controller. The performance of the system was evaluated in terms of actual and reference speeds, stator currents and power consumption over a range of reference speeds up to 4000 revolutions per minute. The use of fewer low cost Hall effect sensors compared to expensive high resolution sensors could reduce the cost of blood pumps for total artificial hearts.

Impulse facility simulation of hypervelocity radiating flows

We describe the X-series impulse facilities at The University of Queensland and show that they can produce useful high speed flows of relevance to the study of high temperature radiating flow flields characteristic of atmospheric entry. Two modes of operation are discussed: (a) the expansion tube mode which is useful for subscale aerodynamic testing of vehicles and (b) the non-reflected shock tube mode which can be used to emulate the nonequilibrium radiating region immediately following the bow shock of a flight vehicle.

Numerical simulation of downburst winds

The wind field of an intense idealised downburst wind storm has been studied using an axisymmetric, dry, non-hydrostatic numerical sub-cloud model. The downburst driving processes of evaporation and melting have been paramaterized by an imposed cooling source that triggers and sustains a downdraft. The simulated downburst exhibits many characteristics of observed full-scale downburst events, in particular the presence of a primary and counter rotating secondary ring vortex at the leading edge of the diverging front. The counter-rotating vortex is shown to significantly influence the development and structure of the outflow. Numerical forcing and environmental characteristics have been systematically varied to determine the influence on the outflow wind field. Normalised wind structure at the time of peak outflow intensity was generally shown to remain constant for all simulations. Enveloped velocity profiles considering the velocity structure throughout the entire storm event show much more scatter. Assessing the available kinetic energy within each simulated storm event, it is shown that the simulated downburst wind events had significantly less energy available for loading isolated structures when compared with atmospheric boundary layer winds. The discrepancy is shown to be particularly prevalent when wind speeds were integrated over heights representative of tall buildings. A similar analysis for available full scale measurements led to similar findings.

Impinging jet simulation of stationary downburst flow over topography

A non-translating, long duration thunderstorm downburst has been simulated experimentally and numerically by modelling a spatially stationary steady flow impinging air jet. Velocity profiles were shown to compare well with an upper-bound of velocity measurements reported for full-scale microbursts. Velocity speed-up over a range of topographic features in simulated downburst flow was also tested with comparisons made to previous work in a similar flow, and also boundary layer wind tunnel experiments. It was found that the amplification measured above the crest of topographic features in simulated downburst flow was up to 35% less than that observed in boundary layer flow for all shapes tested. From the computational standpoint we conclude that the Shear Stress Transport (SST) model performs the best from amongst a range of eddy-viscosity and second moment closures tested for modelling the impinging jet flow.

Pulsed wall jet simulation of a stationary thunderstorm downburst, Part A: Physical structure and flow field characterization

A pulsed wall jet has been used to simulate the gust front of a thunderstorm downburst. Flow visualization, wind speed and surface pressure measurements were obtained. The characteristics of the hypothesized ring vortex of a full-scale downburst were reproduced at a scale estimated to be 1:3000.

Numerical simulation of idealised three-dimensional downburst wind fields

Convective downburst wind storms generate the peak annual gust wind speed for many parts of the non-cyclonic world at return periods of importance for ultimate limit state design. Despite this there is little clear understanding of how to appropriately design for these wind events given their significant dissimilarities to boundary layer winds upon which most design is based. To enhance the understanding of wind fields associated with these storms a three-dimensional numerical model was developed to simulate a multitude of idealised downburst scenarios and to investigate their near-ground wind characteristics. Stationary and translating downdraft wind events in still and sheared environments were simulated with baseline results showing good agreement with previous numerical work and full-scale observational data. Significant differences are shown in the normalised peak wind speed velocity profiles depending on the environmental wind conditions in the vicinity of the simulated event. When integrated over the height of mid- to high rise structures, all simulated profiles are shown to produce wind loads smaller than an equivalent 10 m height matched open terrain boundary layer profile. This suggests that for these structures the current design approach is conservative from an ultimate loading standpoint. Investigating the influence of topography on the structure of the simulated near-ground downburst wind fields, it is shown that these features amplify wind speeds in a manner similar to that expected for boundary layer winds, but the extent of amplification is reduced. The level of reduction is shown to be dependent on the depth of the simulated downburst outflow.

Computer simulation of scaffold degradation

Scaffolds are porous biocompatible materials with suitable microarchitectures that are designed to allow for cell adhesion, growth and proliferation. They are used in combination with cells in regenerative medicine to promote tissue regeneration by means of a controlled deposition of natural extracellular matrix by the hosted cells therein. This healing process is in many cases accompanied by scaffold degradation up to its total disappearance when the scaffold is made of a biodegradable material. This work presents a computational model that simulates the degradation of scaffolds. The model works with three-dimensional microstructures, which have been previously discretised into small cubic homogeneous elements, called voxels. The model simulates the evolution of the degradation of the scaffold using a Monte Carlo algorithm, which takes into account the curvature of the surface of the fibres. The simulation results obtained in this study are in good agreement with empirical degradation measurements performed by mass loss on scaffolds after exposure to an etching alkaline solution.

Simulation of plant cell shrinkage during drying : A SPH–DEM approach

Plant based dried food products are popular commodities in global market where much research is focused to improve the products and processing techniques. In this regard, numerical modelling is highly applicable and in this work, a coupled meshfree particle-based two-dimensional (2-D) model was developed to simulate micro-scale deformations of plant cells during drying. Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) was used to model the viscous cell protoplasm (cell fluid) by approximating it to an incompressible Newtonian fluid. The visco-elastic characteristic of the cell wall was approximated to a Neo-Hookean solid material augmented with a viscous term and modelled with a Discrete Element Method (DEM). Compared to a previous work [H. C. P. Karunasena, W. Senadeera, Y. T. Gu and R. J. Brown, Appl. Math. Model., 2014], this study proposes three model improvements: linearly decreasing positive cell turgor pressure during drying, cell wall contraction forces and cell wall drying. The improvements made the model more comparable with experimental findings on dried cell morphology and geometric properties such as cell area, diameter, perimeter, roundness, elongation and compactness. This single cell model could be used as a building block for advanced tissue models which are highly applicable for product and process optimizations in Food Engineering.

Self-determination, control, and reactions to changes in workload : a work simulation

The objective of this experimental study is to capture the dynamic temporal processes that occur in changing work settings and to test how work control and individuals' motivational predispositions interact to predict reactions to these changes. To this aim, we examine the moderating effects of global self-determined and non-self-determined motivation, at different levels of work control, on participants' adaptation and stress reactivity to changes in workload during four trials of an inbox activity. Workload was increased or decreased at Trial 3, and adaptation to this change was examined via fluctuations in anxiety, coping, motivation, and performance. In support of the hypotheses, results revealed that, for non-self-determined individuals, low work control was stress-buffering and high work control was stress-exacerbating when predicting anxiety and intrinsic motivation. In contrast, for self-determined individuals, high work control facilitated the adaptive use of planning coping in response to a change in workload. Overall, this pattern of results demonstrates that, while high work control was anxiety-provoking and demotivating for non-self-determined individuals, self-determined individuals used high work control to implement an adaptive antecedent-focused emotion regulation strategy (i.e., planning coping) to meet situational demands. Other interactive effects of global motivation emerged on anxiety, active coping, and task performance. These results and their practical implications are discussed.

General self-efficacy influences affective task reactions during a work simulation : the temporal effects of changes in workload at different levels of control

This study investigated the effects of workload, control, and general self-efficacy on affective task reactions (i.e., demands-ability fit, active coping, and anxiety) during a work simulation. The main goals were: (1) to determine the extent general self-efficacy moderates the effects of demand and control on affective task reactions, and; (2) to determine if this varies as a function of changes in workload. Participants (N=141) completed an inbox activity under conditions of low or high control and within low and high workload conditions. The order of trials varied so that workload increased or decreased. Results revealed individuals with high general self-efficacy reported better demands-abilities fit and active coping as well as less anxiety. Three interactive effects were found. First, it was found that high control increased demands-abilities fit from trial 1 to trial 2, but only when workload decreased. Second, it was found that low efficacious individuals active coping increased in trial 2, but only under high control. Third, it was found that high control helped high efficacious individuals manage anxiety when workload decreased. However, for individuals with low general self-efficacy, neither high nor low control alleviated anxiety (i.e., whether workload increased or decreased over time).

Simulation-based fully Bayesian experimental design for mixed effects models

In this paper, we present fully Bayesian experimental designs for nonlinear mixed effects models, in which we develop simulation-based optimal design methods to search over both continuous and discrete design spaces. Although Bayesian inference has commonly been performed on nonlinear mixed effects models, there is a lack of research into performing Bayesian optimal design for nonlinear mixed effects models that require searches to be performed over several design variables. This is likely due to the fact that it is much more computationally intensive to perform optimal experimental design for nonlinear mixed effects models than it is to perform inference in the Bayesian framework. In this paper, the design problem is to determine the optimal number of subjects and samples per subject, as well as the (near) optimal urine sampling times for a population pharmacokinetic study in horses, so that the population pharmacokinetic parameters can be precisely estimated, subject to cost constraints. The optimal sampling strategies, in terms of the number of subjects and the number of samples per subject, were found to be substantially different between the examples considered in this work, which highlights the fact that the designs are rather problem-dependent and require optimisation using the methods presented in this paper.

Agent-based modelling simulation case study : assessment of airport check-in and evacuation process by considering group travel behaviour of air passengers

Passenger experience has become a major factor that influences the success of an airport. In this context, passenger flow simulation has been used in designing and managing airports. However, most passenger flow simulations failed to consider the group dynamics when developing passenger flow models. In this paper, an agent-based model is presented to simulate passenger behaviour at the airport check-in and evacuation process. The simulation results show that the passenger behaviour can have significant influences on the performance and utilisation of services in airport terminals. The model was created using AnyLogic software and its parameters were initialised using recent research data published in the literature.