Estimation of WGEN Weather Generation Parameters in Arid Climates

This research discusses some of the issues encountered while developing a set of WGEN parameters for Chile and advice for others interested in developing WGEN parameters for arid climates. The WGEN program is a commonly used and a valuable research tool; however, it has specific limitations in arid climates that need careful consideration. These limitations are analysed in the context of generating a set of WGEN parameters for Chile. Fourteen to 26 years of precipitation data are used to calculate precipitation parameters for 18 locations in Chile, and 3–8 years of temperature and solar radiation data are analysed to generate parameters for seven of these locations. Results indicate that weather generation parameters in arid regions are sensitive to erroneous or missing precipitation data. Research shows that the WGEN-estimated gamma distribution shape parameter (α) for daily precipitation in arid zones will tend to cluster around discrete values of 0 or 1, masking the high sensitivity of these parameters to additional data. Rather than focus on the length in years when assessing the adequacy of a data record for estimation of precipitation parameters, researchers should focus on the number of wet days in dry months in a data set. Analysis of the WGEN routines for the estimation of temperature and solar radiation parameters indicates that errors can occur when individual ‘months’ have fewer than two wet days in the data set. Recommendations are provided to improve methods for estimation of WGEN parameters in arid climates.

Social networks in arid Australia : a review of concepts and evidence

Arid systems are markedly different from non-arid systems. This distinctiveness extends to arid-social networks, by which we mean social networks which are influenced by the suite of factors driving arid and semi-arid regions. Neither the process of how aridity interacts with social structure, nor what happens as a result of this interaction, is adequately understood. This paper postulates three relative characteristics which make arid-social networks distinct: that they are tightly bound, are hierarchical in structure and, hence, prone to power abuses, and contain a relatively higher proportion of weak links, making them reactive to crisis. These ideas were modified from workshop discussions during 2006. Although they are neither tested nor presented as strong beliefs, they are based on the anecdotal observations of arid-system scientists with many years of experience. This paper does not test the ideas, but rather examines them in the context of five arid-social network case studies with the aim of hypotheses building. Our cases are networks related to pastoralism, Aboriginal outstations, the ‘Far West Coast Aboriginal Enterprise Network’ and natural resources in both the Lake-Eyre basin and the Murray–Darling catchment. Our cases highlight that (1) social networks do not have clear boundaries, and that how participants perceive their network boundaries may differ from what network data imply, (2) although network structures are important determinants of system behaviour, the role of participants as individuals is still pivotal, (3) and while in certain arid cases weak links are engaged in crisis, the exact structure of all weak links in terms of how they place participants in relation to other communities is what matters.

Genuine community engagement in remote dryland regions : natural resource management in Lake Eyre Basin

Remote dryland regions are characterised by sparse populations and socially marginalised voices which pose particular challenges to natural resource management. This paper considers the issue of how to achieve community engagement in regions with these characteristics. In doing so, the paper contributes to an expanding international research agenda focusing on the distinct characteristics of arid and semi-arid regions under the heading of 'dryland syndrome'. The paper draws on government liaison officer and local community perspectives of successful engagement in the case-study region of Lake Eyre Basin, Australia. The results demonstrate that widely recognised characteristics of successful engagement are required but insufficient for genuine engagement in remote dryland regions. In addition to building trust through community ownership, being inclusive, effective communication, and adequate resources, genuine community engagement in drylands also requires respecting the extreme conditions and extraordinary variability of these areas. Residents of dryland regions seek genuine engagement yet engage opportunistically when seasons are conducive and when tangible outcomes are visible. © 2011 The Authors. Geographical Research © 2011 Institute of Australian Geographers.

The analysis of large scale data taken from the world groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) germplasm collection. II. Two-way data with mixed data types

As a sequel to a paper that dealt with the analysis of two-way quantitative data in large germplasm collections, this paper presents analytical methods appropriate for two-way data matrices consisting of mixed data types, namely, ordered multicategory and quantitative data types. While various pattern analysis techniques have been identified as suitable for analysis of the mixed data types which occur in germplasm collections, the clustering and ordination methods used often can not deal explicitly with the computational consequences of large data sets (i.e. greater than 5000 accessions) with incomplete information. However, it is shown that the ordination technique of principal component analysis and the mixture maximum likelihood method of clustering can be employed to achieve such analyses. Germplasm evaluation data for 11436 accessions of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) from the International Research Institute of the Semi-Arid Tropics, Andhra Pradesh, India were examined. Data for nine quantitative descriptors measured in the post-rainy season and five ordered multicategory descriptors were used. Pattern analysis results generally indicated that the accessions could be distinguished into four regions along the continuum of growth habit (or plant erectness). Interpretation of accession membership in these regions was found to be consistent with taxonomic information, such as subspecies. Each growth habit region contained accessions from three of the most common groundnut botanical varieties. This implies that within each of the habit types there is the full range of expression for the other descriptors used in the analysis. Using these types of insights, the patterns of variability in germplasm collections can provide scientists with valuable information for their plant improvement programs.

Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry

The Gascoyne-Murchison region of Western Australia experiences an arid to semi-arid climate with a highly variable temporal and spatial rainfall distribution. The region has around 39.2 million hectares available for pastoral lease and supports predominantly catle and sheep grazing leases. In recent years a number of climate forecasting systems have been available offering rainfall probabilities with different lead times and a forecast period; however, the extent to which these systems are capable of fulfilling the requirements of the local pastoralists is still ambiguous. Issues can range from ensuring forecasts are issued with sufficient lead time to enable key planning or decisions to be revoked or altered, to ensuring forecast language is simple and clear, to negate possible misunderstandings in interpretation. A climate research project sought to provide an objective method to determine which available forecasting systems had the greatest forecasting skill at times of the year relevant to local property management. To aid this climate research project, the study reported here was undertaken with an overall objective of exploring local pastoralists' climate information needs. We also explored how well they understand common climate forecast terms such as 'mean', median' and 'probability', and how they interpret and apply forecast information to decisions. A stratified, proportional random sampling was used for the purpose of deriving the representative sample based on rainfall-enterprise combinations. In order to provide more time for decision-making than existing operational forecasts that are issued with zero lead time, pastoralists requested that forecasts be issued for May-July and January-March with lead times counting down from 4 to 0 months. We found forecasts of between 20 and 50 mm break-of-season or follow-up rainfall were likely to influence decisions. Eighty percent of pastoralists demonstrated in a test question that they had a poor technical understanding of how to interpret the standard wording of a probabilistic median rainfall forecast. this is worthy of further research to investigate whether inappropriate management decisions are being made because the forecasts are being misunderstood. We found more than half the respondents regularly access and use weather and climate forecasts or outlook information from a range of sources and almost three-quarters considered climate information or tools useful, with preferred methods for accessing this information by email, faxback service, internet and the Department of Agriculture Western Australia's Pastoral Memo. Despite differences in enterprise types and rainfall seasonality across the region we found seasonal climate forecasting needs were relatively consistent. It became clear that providing basic training and working with pastoralists to help them understand regional climatic drivers, climate terminology and jargon, and the best ways to apply the forecasts to enhance decision-making are important to improve their use of information. Consideration could also be given to engaging a range of producers to write the climate forecasts themselves in the language they use and understand, in consultation with the scientists who prepare the forecasts.

Defining and predicting the 'break of the season' for north-east Queensland grazing areas

For pasture growth in the semi-arid tropics of north-east Australia, where up to 80% of annual rainfall occurs between December and March, the timing and distribution of rainfall events is often more important than the total amount. In particular, the timing of the 'green break of the season' (GBOS) at the end of the dry season, when new pasture growth becomes available as forage and a live-weight gain is measured in cattle, affects several important management decisions that prevent overgrazing and pasture degradation. Currently, beef producers in the region use a GBOS rule based on rainfall (e. g. 40mm of rain over three days by 1 December) to define the event and make their management decisions. A survey of 16 beef producers in north-east Queensland shows three quarters of respondents use a rainfall amount that occurs in only half or less than half of all years at their location. In addition, only half the producers expect the GBOS to occur within two weeks of the median date calculated by the CSIRO plant growth days model GRIM. This result suggests that in the producer rules, either the rainfall quantity or the period of time over which the rain is expected, is unrealistic. Despite only 37% of beef producers indicating that they use a southern oscillation index (SOI) forecast in their decisions, cross validated LEPS (linear error in probability space) analyses showed both the average 3 month July-September SOI and the 2 month August-September SOI have significant forecast skill in predicting the probability of both the amount of wet season rainfall and the timing of the GBOS. The communication and implementation of a rigorous and realistic definition of the GBOS, and the likely impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the region are discussed in the context of the sustainable management of northern Australian rangelands.

Heat transfer with solid liquid phase change initiating at a point in a semi infinite mold

Short-time analytical solutions of temperature and moving boundary in two-dimensional two-phase freezing due to a cold spot are presented in this paper. The melt occupies a semi-infinite region. Although the method of solution is valid for various other types of boundary conditions, the results in this paper are given only for the prescribed flux boundary conditions which could be space and time dependent. The freezing front propagations along the interior of the melt region exhibit well known behaviours but the propagations along the surface are of new type. The freezing front always depends on material parameters. Several interesting results can be obtained as particular cases of the general results.

Optimisation of resin extraction from an Australian arid grass ‘Triodia pungens’ and its preliminary evaluation as an anti-termite timber coating

Spinifex grasses are the dominant vegetative component in Australian grassland habitats, covering approximately 26% of the Australian landmass. Our ongoing work explores the utility of both the cellulosic and resinous components of this abundant biomass for modern applications and a potential economy for our Aboriginal collaborators. This study is focused on the optimisation of a resin extraction process using solvent, and the subsequent evaluation, via a field trial, of the potential use and efficacy of the resin as an anti-termite coating material. Termiticidal performance was evaluated by re-dissolving the extracted resin in acetone and coating on pine timber blocks. The resin-coated and control blocks were then exposed to a colony of Mastotermes darwiniensis’ (Froggatt) termites, which are the most primitive alive and destructive species in subterranean area, at a trial site in northeast Australia, for six months. The results clearly showed that spinifex resin effectively protected the timber from termite attack, while the uncoated control samples were extensively damaged. By demonstrating an enhanced termite resistance, we here report that plant resins that are produced by arid/semi-arid grasses could be potentially used as treatments to prevent termite attack.

Strategic tillage in no-till farming systems in Australia’s northern grains-growing regions: II. Implications for agronomy, soil and environment

In semi-arid sub-tropical areas, a number of studies concerning no-till (NT) farming systems have demonstrated advantages in economic, environmental and soil quality aspects over conventional tillage (CT). However, adoption of continuous NT has contributed to the build-up of herbicide resistant weed populations, increased incidence of soil- and stubble-borne diseases, and stratification of nutrients and organic carbon near the soil surface. Some farmers often resort to an occasional strategic tillage (ST) to manage these problems of NT systems. However, farmers who practice strict NT systems are concerned that even one-time tillage may undo positive soil condition benefits of NT farming systems. We reviewed the pros and cons of the use of occasional ST in NT farming systems. Impacts of occasional ST on agronomy, soil and environment are site-specific and depend on many interacting soil, climatic and management conditions. Most studies conducted in North America and Europe suggest that introducing occasional ST in continuous NT farming systems could improve productivity and profitability in the short term; however in the long-term, the impact is negligible or may be negative. The short term impacts immediately following occasional ST on soil and environment include reduced protective cover, soil loss by erosion, increased runoff, loss of C and water, and reduced microbial activity with little or no detrimental impact in the long-term. A potential negative effect immediately following ST would be reduced plant available water which may result in unreliability of crop sowing in variable seasons. The occurrence of rainfall between the ST and sowing or immediately after the sowing is necessary to replenish soil water lost from the seed zone. Timing of ST is likely to be critical and must be balanced with optimising soil water prior to seeding. The impact of occasional ST varies with the tillage implement used; for example, inversion tillage using mouldboard tillage results in greater impacts as compared to chisel or disc. Opportunities for future research on occasional ST with the most commonly used implements such as tine and/or disc in Australia’s northern grains-growing region are presented in the context of agronomy, soil and the environment.

Managing cattle grazing intensity: effects on soil organic matter and soil nitrogen

Extensive cattle grazing is the dominant land use in northern Australia. It has been suggested that grazing intensity and rainfall have profound effects on the dynamics of soil nutrients in northern Australia’s semi-arid rangelands. Previous studies have found positive, neutral and negative effects of grazing pressure on soil nutrients. These inconsistencies could be due to short-term experiments that do not capture the slow dynamics of some soil nutrients and the effects of interannual variability in rainfall. In a long-term cattle grazing trial in northern Australia on Brown Sodosol–Yellow Kandosol complex, we analysed soil organic matter and mineral nitrogen in surface soils (0–10 cm depth) 11, 12 and 16 years after trial establishment on experimental plots representing moderate stocking (stocked at the long-term carrying capacity for the region) and heavy stocking (stocked at twice the long-term carrying capacity). Higher soil organic matter was found under heavy stocking, although grazing treatment had little effect on mineral and total soil nitrogen. Interannual variability had a large effect on soil mineral nitrogen, but not on soil organic matter, suggesting that soil nitrogen levels observed in this soil complex may be affected by other indirect pathways, such as climate. The effect of interannual variability in rainfall and the effects of other soil types need to be explored further.

Agronomic benefits and risks associated with the irrigated peanut–maize production system under a changing climate in northern Australia

With the aim of increasing peanut production in Australia, the Australian peanut industry has recently considered growing peanuts in rotation with maize at Katherine in the Northern Territory—a location with a semi-arid tropical climate and surplus irrigation capacity. We used the well-validated APSIM model to examine potential agronomic benefits and long-term risks of this strategy under the current and warmer climates of the new region. Yield of the two crops, irrigation requirement, total soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) losses and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were simulated. Sixteen climate stressors were used; these were generated by using global climate models ECHAM5, GFDL2.1, GFDL2.0 and MRIGCM232 with a median sensitivity under two Special Report of Emissions Scenarios over the 2030 and 2050 timeframes plus current climate (baseline) for Katherine. Effects were compared at three levels of irrigation and three levels of N fertiliser applied to maize grown in rotations of wet-season peanut and dry-season maize (WPDM), and wet-season maize and dry-season peanut (WMDP). The climate stressors projected average temperature increases of 1°C to 2.8°C in the dry (baseline 24.4°C) and wet (baseline 29.5°C) seasons for the 2030 and 2050 timeframes, respectively. Increased temperature caused a reduction in yield of both crops in both rotations. However, the overall yield advantage of WPDM increased from 41% to up to 53% compared with the industry-preferred sequence of WMDP under the worst climate projection. Increased temperature increased the irrigation requirement by up to 11% in WPDM, but caused a smaller reduction in total SOC accumulation and smaller increases in N losses and GHG emission compared with WMDP. We conclude that although increased temperature will reduce productivity and total SOC accumulation, and increase N losses and GHG emissions in Katherine or similar northern Australian environments, the WPDM sequence should be preferable over the industry-preferred sequence because of its overall yield and sustainability advantages in warmer climates. Any limitations of irrigation resulting from climate change could, however, limit these advantages.

Structure of ant assemblages in Western Ghats, India: role of habitat, disturbance and introduced species

1. Habitat fragmentation, anthropogenic disturbance and the introduction of invasive species are factors thought to structure ant assemblages. To understand responses of the ant community to changes in the environment, ants are commonly categorised into functional groups, a scheme developed and based on Australian ants. 2. Behaviourally dominant and aggressive ants of the dominant dolichoderinae functional group have been suggested to structure the ant assemblages in arid and semi-arid habitats of these regions. Given the limited geographical distribution of dominant dolichoderinae, it is crucial to determine the responses of the ant community to changes in the environment in their absence. 3. This study addresses this less studied aspect by considering the associations of ants of Western Ghats, India, with habitat, anthropogenic disturbance and introduced ants. We determined how ant functional groups respond to these factors in this region, where dominant dolichoderines are naturally absent, and whether responses are consistent with predictions derived from the ant functional group scheme. 4. This study provides new information on ant assemblages in a little-studied region. As in other parts of the world, ant assemblages in Western Ghats were strongly influenced by habitat and disturbance, with different functional groups associated with different habitats and levels of disturbance. 5. No functional group showed evidence of being influenced by the abundance of introduced species. In addition, predictions of negative interactions between functional groups were not supported. Our findings suggest that abiotic factors are universal determinants of ant assemblage structure, but that competitive interactions may not be.

Turbulent heat flux variation over the Monsoon-Trough region during MONTBLEX-90

Tower data collected during the Monsoon-Trough Boundary Layer Experiment (MONTBLEX-90) have been analysed to understand the observed structure of the surface layer over an arid region (Jodhpur) and a moist region (Kharagpur) during active and weak phases of the 1990 southwest monsoon. Turbulent heat and momentum fluxes are estimated by the eddy correlation method using sonic data. The turbulent momentum flux at both Jodhpur and Kharagpur was larger when the winds were stronger, reaching a maximum of the order of 0.5 N m(-2) on 5 and 6 August when a low pressure system was located over the region. The heat flux at Jodhpur is high during weak monsoon days, the maximum being 450 W m(-2), whereas during active days the flux never exceeds 200 W m(-2). At Kharagpur, the flux does not vary significantly between active and weak monsoon days, the maximum in either phase being 160 W m(-2) At Jodhpur, there is significant contrast in the near-surface air temperature, being higher during weak monsoon days as compared to active days. Cloud cover did not vary significantly in both the regions. The turbulent heat flux variation at both the sites appears to be correlated mainly with soil mixture, and less sensitive to cloud cover.

Use of climate information for farm-level decision making: rainfed groundnut in southern India

The production of rainfed crops in semi-arid tropics exhibits large variation in response to the variation in seasonal rainfall. There are several farm-level decisions such as the choice of cropping pattern, whether to invest in fertilizers, pesticides etc., the choice of the period for planting, plant population density etc. for which the appropriate choice (associated with maximum production or minimum risk) depends upon the nature of the rainfall variability or the prediction for a specific year. In this paper, we have addressed the problem of identifying the appropriate strategies for cultivation of rainfed groundnut in the Anantapur region in a semi-arid part of the Indian peninsula. The approach developed involves participatory research with active collaboration with farmers, so that the problems with perceived need are addressed with the modern tools and data sets available. Given the large spatial variation of climate and soil, the appropriate strategies are necessarily location specific. With the approach adopted, it is possible to tap the detailed location specific knowledge of the complex rainfed ecosystem and gain an insight into the variety of options of land use and management practices available to each category of stakeholders. We believe such a participatory approach is essential for identifying strategies that have a favourable cost-benefit ratio over the region considered and hence are associated with a high chance of acceptance by the stakeholders. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anthropogenic aerosol fraction over Afro-Asian regions inferred using Kalpana-I and MISR data

Mineral dust constitutes the single largest contributor of natural aerosols over continents. The first step towards separating natural aerosol radiative impact from its anthropogenic counterparts over continents is to gather information on dust aerosols. The infrared (IR) radiance (10.5-12.5 mu m) acquired from the Kalpana-I satellite (similar to 8-km resolution) was used to retrieve regional characteristics of dust aerosols over the Afro-Asian region during the winter of 2004, coinciding with a national aerosol campaign. Here, we used aerosol-induced IR radiance depression as an index of dust load. The regional distribution of dust over various arid and semi-arid regions of India and adjacent continents has been estimated, and these data in conjunction with regional maps of column aerosol optical depth (AOD) are used to infer anthropogenic aerosol fraction. Surprisingly, even over desert locations in India and Saudi Arabia, the anthropogenic fraction was relatively high (similar to 0.3 to 0.4) and the regionally averaged anthropogenic fraction over India was 0.62 +/- 0.06.