Fuzzy Classification of Time Series Data

The problem of classification of time series data is an interesting problem in the field of data mining. Even though several algorithms have been proposed for the problem of time series classification we have developed an innovative algorithm which is computationally fast and accurate in several cases when compared with 1NN classifier. In our method we are calculating the fuzzy membership of each test pattern to be classified to each class. We have experimented with 6 benchmark datasets and compared our method with 1NN classifier.

A Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques for Modeling River Flow Time Series: The Case of Upper Cauvery River Basin

Models of river flow time series are essential in efficient management of a river basin. It helps policy makers in developing efficient water utilization strategies to maximize the utility of scarce water resource. Time series analysis has been used extensively for modeling river flow data. The use of machine learning techniques such as support-vector regression and neural network models is gaining increasing popularity. In this paper we compare the performance of these techniques by applying it to a long-term time-series data of the inflows into the Krishnaraja Sagar reservoir (KRS) from three tributaries of the river Cauvery. In this study flow data over a period of 30 years from three different observation points established in upper Cauvery river sub-basin is analyzed to estimate their contribution to KRS. Specifically, ANN model uses a multi-layer feed forward network trained with a back-propagation algorithm and support vector regression with epsilon intensive-loss function is used. Auto-regressive moving average models are also applied to the same data. The performance of different techniques is compared using performance metrics such as root mean squared error (RMSE), correlation, normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE).

Reversible jump sampler for autoregressive time series

We use reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to address the problem of model order uncertainty in autoregressive (AR) time series within a Bayesian framework. Efficient model jumping is achieved by proposing model space moves from the full conditional density for the AR parameters, which is obtained analytically. This is compared with an alternative method, for which the moves are cheaper to compute, in which proposals are made only for new parameters in each move. Results are presented for both synthetic and audio time series.

Bayesian model selection for time series using Markov chain Monte Carlo

We present a stochastic simulation technique for subset selection in time series models, based on the use of indicator variables with the Gibbs sampler within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. As an example, the method is applied to the selection of subset linear AR models, in which only significant lags are included. Joint sampling of the indicators and parameters is found to speed convergence. We discuss the possibility of model mixing where the model is not well determined by the data, and the extension of the approach to include non-linear model terms.

Predicting chaotic time-series with wavelet networks

A new technique, wavelet network, is introduced to predict chaotic time series. By using this technique, firstly, we make accurate short-term predictions of the time series from chaotic attractors. Secondly, we make accurate predictions of the values and bifurcation structures of the time series from dynamical systems whose parameter values are changing with time. Finally we predict chaotic attractors by making long-term predictions based on remarkably few data points, where the correlation dimensions of predicted attractors are calculated and are found to be almost identical to those of actual attractors.

Direct dynamical test for deterministic chaos and optimal embedding of a chaotic time-series

We propose here a local exponential divergence plot which is capable of providing an alternative means of characterizing a complex time series. The suggested plot defines a time-dependent exponent and a ''plus'' exponent. Based on their changes with the embedding dimension and delay time, a criterion for estimating simultaneously the minimal acceptable embedding dimension, the proper delay time, and the largest Lyapunov exponent has been obtained. When redefining the time-dependent exponent LAMBDA(k) curves on a series of shells, we have found that whether a linear envelope to the LAMBDA(k) curves exists can serve as a direct dynamical method of distinguishing chaos from noise.

Local exponential divergence plot and optimal embedding of a chaotic time-series

we propose here a local exponential divergence plot which is capable of providing a new means of characterizing chaotic time series. The suggested plot defines a time dependent exponent LAMBDA and a ''plus'' exponent LAMBDA+ which serves as a criterion for estimating simultaneously the minimal acceptable embedding dimension, the proper delay time and the largest Lyapunov exponent.

Reconstructing an 83-Year Time Series of Daily Sea Surface Temperature at Pacific Grove, California

Daily sea surface temperatures have been acquired at the Hopkins Marine Station in Pacific Grove, California since January 20, 1919.This time series is one of the longest oceanographic records along the U.S. west coast. Because of its length it is well-suited for studying climate-related and oceanic variability on interannual, decadal, and interdecadal time scales. The record, however, is not homogeneous, has numerous gaps, contains possible outliers, and the observations were not always collected at the same time each day. Because of these problems we have undertaken the task of reconstructing this long and unique series. We describe the steps that were taken and the methods that were used in this reconstruction. Although the methods employed are basic, we believe that they are consistent with the quality of the data. The reconstructed record has values at every time point, original, or estimated, and has been adjusted for time-of-day variations where this information was available. Possible outliers have also been examined and replaced where their credibility could not be established. Many of the studies that have employed the Hopkins time series have not discussed the issue of data quality and how these problems were addressed. Because of growing interest in this record, it is important that a single, well-documented version be adopted, so that the results of future analyses can be directly compared. Although additional work may be done to further improve the quality of this record, it is now available via the internet. [PDF contains 48 pages]