Gravitational waves as dark sirens: an astrophysical and cosmological analysis

Despite the success of the ΛCDM model in describing the Universe, a possible tension between early- and late-Universe cosmological measurements is calling for new independent cosmological probes. Amongst the most promising ones, gravitational waves (GWs) can provide a self-calibrated measurement of the luminosity distance. However, to obtain cosmological constraints, additional information is needed to break the degeneracy between parameters in the gravitational waveform. In this thesis, we exploit the latest LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Gravitational Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-3) of GW sources to constrain the background cosmological parameters together with the astrophysical properties of Binary Black Holes (BBHs), using information from their mass distribution. We expand the public code MGCosmoPop, previously used for the application of this technique, by implementing a state-of-the-art model for the mass distribution, needed to account for the presence of non-trivial features, i.e. a truncated power law with two additional Gaussian peaks, referred to as Multipeak. We then analyse GWTC-3 comparing this model with simpler and more commonly adopted ones, both in the case of fixed and varying cosmology, and assess their goodness-of-fit with different model selection criteria, and their constraining power on the cosmological and population parameters. We also start to explore different sampling methods, namely Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Nested Sampling, comparing their performances and evaluating the advantages of both. We find concurring evidence that the Multipeak model is favoured by the data, in line with previous results, and show that this conclusion is robust to the variation of the cosmological parameters. We find a constraint on the Hubble constant of H0 = 61.10+38.65−22.43 km/s/Mpc (68% C.L.), which shows the potential of this method in providing independent constraints on cosmological parameters. The results obtained in this work have been included in [1].

The characteristics of depressive symptoms in medical students during medical education and training: a cross-sectional study

Background: Medical education and training can contribute to the development of depressive symptoms that might lead to possible academic and professional consequences. We aimed to investigate the characteristics of depressive symptoms among 481 medical students (79.8% of the total who matriculated). Methods: The Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and cluster analyses were used in order to better describe the characteristics of depressive symptoms. Medical education and training in Brazil is divided into basic (1(st) and 2(nd) years), intermediate (3(rd) and 4(th) years), and internship (5(th) and 6(th) years) periods. The study organized each item from the BDI into the following three clusters: affective, cognitive, and somatic. Statistical analyses were performed using analysis of variance (ANOVA) with post-hoc Tukey corrected for multiple comparisons. Results: There were 184 (38.2%) students with depressive symptoms (BDI > 9). The internship period resulted in the highest BDI scores in comparison to both the basic (p < .001) and intermediate (p < .001) periods. Affective, cognitive, and somatic clusters were significantly higher in the internship period. An exploratory analysis of possible risk factors showed that females (p = .020) not having a parent who practiced medicine (p = .016), and the internship period (p = .001) were factors for the development of depressive symptoms. Conclusion: There is a high prevalence towards depressive symptoms among medical students, particularly females, in the internship level, mainly involving the somatic and affective clusters, and not having a parent who practiced medicine. The active assessment of these students in evaluating their depressive symptoms is important in order to prevent the development of co-morbidities and suicide risk.

What loggers leave behind: Impacts on big-leaf mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla) commercial populations and potential for post-logging recovery in the Brazilian Amazon

The sustainability of current harvest practices for high-value Meliaceae can be assessed by quantifying logging intensity and projecting growth and survival by post-logging populations over anticipated intervals between harvests. From 100%-area inventories of big-leaf mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla) covering 204 ha or more at eight logged and unlogged forest sites across southern Brazilian Amazonia, we report generally higher landscape-scale densities and smaller population-level mean diameters in eastern forests compared to western forests, where most commercial stocks survive. Density of trees >= 20 cm diameter varied by two orders of magnitude and peaked at 1.17 ha(-1). Size class frequency distributions appeared unimodal at two high-density sites, but were essentially arnodal or flat elsewhere; diameter increment patterns indicate that populations were multi- or all-aged. At two high-density sites, conventional logging removed 93-95% of commercial trees (>= 45 cm diameter at the time of logging), illegally eliminated 31-47% of sub-merchantable trees, and targeted trees as small as 20 cm diameter. Projected recovery by commercial stems during 30 years after conventional logging represented 9.9-37.5% of initial densities and was highly dependent on initial logging intensity and size class frequency distributions of commercial trees. We simulated post-logging recovery over the same period at all sites according to the 2003 regulatory framework for mahogany in Brazil, which raised the minimum diameter cutting limit to 60 cm and requires retention during the first harvest of 20% of commercial-sized trees. Recovery during 30 years ranged from approximately 0 to 31% over 20% retention densities at seven of eight sites. At only one site where sub-merchantable trees dominated the population did the simulated density of harvestable stems after 30 years exceed initial commercial densities. These results indicate that 80% harvest intensity will not be sustainable over multiple cutting cycles for most populations without silvicultural interventions ensuring establishment and long-term growth of artificial regeneration to augment depleted natural stocks, including repeated tending of outplanted seedlings. Without improved harvest protocols for mahogany in Brazil as explored in this paper, future commercial supplies of this species as well as other high-value tropical timbers are endangered. Rapid changes in the timber industry and land-use in the Amazon are also significant challenges to sustainable management of mahogany. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

MODIS NDVI time-series allow the monitoring of Eucalyptus plantation biomass

The use of remote sensing is necessary for monitoring forest carbon stocks at large scales. Optical remote sensing, although not the most suitable technique for the direct estimation of stand biomass, offers the advantage of providing large temporal and spatial datasets. In particular, information on canopy structure is encompassed in stand reflectance time series. This study focused on the example of Eucalyptus forest plantations, which have recently attracted much attention as a result of their high expansion rate in many tropical countries. Stand scale time-series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were obtained from MODIS satellite data after a procedure involving un-mixing and interpolation, on about 15,000 ha of plantations in southern Brazil. The comparison of the planting date of the current rotation (and therefore the age of the stands) estimated from these time series with real values provided by the company showed that the root mean square error was 35.5 days. Age alone explained more than 82% of stand wood volume variability and 87% of stand dominant height variability. Age variables were combined with other variables derived from the NDVI time series and simple bioclimatic data by means of linear (Stepwise) or nonlinear (Random Forest) regressions. The nonlinear regressions gave r-square values of 0.90 for volume and 0.92 for dominant height, and an accuracy of about 25 m(3)/ha for volume (15% of the volume average value) and about 1.6 m for dominant height (8% of the height average value). The improvement including NDVI and bioclimatic data comes from the fact that the cumulative NDVI since planting date integrates the interannual variability of leaf area index (LAI), light interception by the foliage and growth due for example to variations of seasonal water stress. The accuracy of biomass and height predictions was strongly improved by using the NDVI integrated over the two first years after planting, which are critical for stand establishment. These results open perspectives for cost-effective monitoring of biomass at large scales in intensively-managed plantation forests. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A detecção remota no inventário florestal: análise das potencialidades da utilização das imagens de satélite

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica

Aplicação de SIG no processamento do inventário florestal nacional – Cabo Verde

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica

Aplicação de SIG no Processamento do Inventário Florestal Nacional – Cabo Verde

Cabo Verde desde do século passado tem envidado esforço na florestação, sobretudo depois de 1975 para atenuar os efeitos da seca e da desertificação criando deste modo grandes áreas arborizadas. Entretanto, à medida que os recursos florestais foram sendo criados, a problemática da sua avaliação e da sua gestão sustentável, passaram a merecer maior atenção das autoridades nacionais. A lei florestal, promulgada em 1998 define como uma das atribuições e acções do Estado, através dos serviços florestais, a elaboração dos planos de gestão das zonas florestais. Este plano de gestão implica a análise e a apreciação de dados concretos e actualizados sobre a situação real das zonas florestais, sendo possível apenas através do inventário florestal nacional (IFN). Neste trabalho é proposta uma metodologia de processamento do IFN em que se utilizam as potencialidades dos Sistemas de Informação Geográfica (SIG). Foram utilizados para este trabalho os programas: ArcGis 9.1, para produção cartográfica, geoprocessamento e análise espacial e o Field-Map 8.1 para a classificação de ortofotos num esquema de classificação hierárquica, em cinco níveis, adaptado a Cabo Verde (classes de uso do solo adoptado ao esquema de classificação do território europeu – CORINE Land Cover e da Organização das Nações Unidas para a Agricultura e Alimentação (FAO). Os dados utilizados foram compilados no âmbito do projecto do inventário florestal. Os resultados obtidos, para a Ilha de Santiago, constituem uma base cartográfica para o IFN com diversos temas cartográficos, nomeadamente, mapas das zonas florestadas, mapas de ocupação do solo e mapas de amostras inventariáveis cuja metodologia de elaboração poderá ser facilmente replicada para as restantes ilhas do arquipélago.

Effect of data acquisition accuracy on timing of stand harvests and expected net present value

Abstract

Functions for estimating stem diameter and tree age using tree height, crown width and existing stand database information

Abstract

Growth and yield models in Spain: historical overview, contemporary examples and perspectives

En el presente trabajo se presenta una revisión sobre los modelos forestales desarrollados en España durante los últimos años, tanto para la producción maderable como no maderable y, para la dinámica de los bosques (regeneración, mortalidad). Se presentan modelos tanto de rodal completo como de clases diamétricas y de árbol individual. Los modelos desarrollados hasta la fecha se han desarrollado a partir de datos procedentes de parcelas permanentes, ensayos y el Inventario Forestal Nacional. En el trabajo se muestran los diferentes submodelos desarrollados hasta la fecha, así como las plataformas informáticas que permiten utilizar dichos modelos. Se incluyen las principales perspectivas de desarrollo de la modelización forestal en España.

Caracterización selvícola de las masas monoespecíficas de pino laricio en Cataluña

En el presente trabajo se ha abordado, a partir de la información suministrada por el Segundo Inventario Forestal Nacional, la caracterización de las masas monoespecíficas de pino laricio en Cataluña (NE de España), formalizándola en una tipología de enfoque silvogenético. Basándose en los resultados obtenidos del análisis factorial realizado sobre variables dasométricas, los categoremas de la tipología se articularon sobre aspectos concernientes a la distribución diamétrica y espesura del rodal, identificándose nueve tipos. El carácter irregularizado, presente en cinco de ellos aunque con rasgos diferentes, se examinó a través de la distribución de Weibull truncada. La tipología, que se maneja computando tan sólo el nivel de regenerado y los diámetros de los pies inventariables, contempla los distintos estadios evolutivos y permite diagnosticar situaciones comprometidas en cuanto a la persistencia de la masa, bien causadas por deficientes estados de espesura o por falta de regenerado.

Tipología selvícola para los abetales españoles de Abies alba Mill.

Se ofrece una tipología de naturaleza silvogenética para los abetales del Pirineo español, elaborada a partir de la información suministrada por el Segundo Inventario Forestal Nacional. Se han derivado nueve tipos, cuya diferenciación se articula en base al área basimétrica, la densidad, la distribución diamétrica de los pies presentes y el carácter puro o mixto de la masa. Se ha analizado comparativamente la estructura que conforman sus distribuciones diamétricas y el rol que las especies acompañantes del abeto desempeñan en aquélla, destacando cómo el carácter de irregularidad preside, aunque en grados diversos, la totalidad de las formas tipificadas. La tipología resulta de sencilla aplicación por parte del gestor forestal puesto que se maneja con tan sólo los diámetros inventariados de los pies existentes, y contempla los distintos estadios secuenciales y evolutivos de los abetales españoles que abarcan, desde la fase de instalación del abeto bajo la cubierta de otras especies, hasta las estructuras más capitalizadas y envejecidas.

Aplicación de imágenes radar de satélite a la cartografía de la vegetación en zonas boreales

El presente estudio se enmarca en el proyecto europeo SIBERIA. Trata de explorar el uso de imágenes radar de satélite (ERS y JERS) para la actualización de la cartografía de vegetación de zonas boreales. Se dispone de 8 imágenes de amplitud y coherencia tomadas en 1998, así como de un inventario de vegetación georreferenciado de dos pequeñas zonas. Se proponen tres tipos de clasificaciones supervisadas por el método de máxima verosimilitud. La primera con las imágenes de satélite, la segunda añadiendo algunas imágenes texturales, y la tercera utilizando sólo las imágenes de los componentes principales más significativos. Se siguen los criterios establecidos en el proyecto SIBERIA para la obtención de áreas de entrenamiento. Se propone una doble validación, por una parte vía matrices de confusión a partir de áreas de verdad-terreno obtenidas por el mismo método que las áreas de entrenamiento, y por otra parte contrastando y correlacionando las clasificaciones con los parámetros de inventario disponibles para dos pequeñas áreas de verdad-terreno. Los resultados indican una sensible mejora en la clasificación con la incorporación de imágenes texturales (la precisión aumenta de un 66% a un 75%), y señalan el parámetro biomasa como el mejor correlacionado con las clasificaciones derivadas (coeficiente de correlación r de hasta 0,49). Diferentes fuentes de error permiten augurar un margen de mejora para posteriores estudios.

Metsäbiomassan kartoittaminen monilähdeinventoinnilla

Seloste artikkelista: Tuominen, S., Eerikäinen, K., Schibalski, A., Haakana, M. & Lehtonen, A. / Mapping biomass variables with a multi-source forest inventory technique. Silva Fennica 44 (2010) : 1, 109-119.