925 resultados para Scale not given.None
The importance of the relationship between scale and process in understanding long-term DOC dynamics
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Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon have increased in many, but not all, surface waters across acid impacted areas of Europe and North America over the last two decades. Over the last eight years several hypotheses have been put forward to explain these increases, but none are yet accepted universally. Research in this area appears to have reached a stalemate between those favouring declining atmospheric deposition, climate change or land management as the key driver of long-term DOC trends. While it is clear that many of these factors influence DOC dynamics in soil and stream waters, their effect varies over different temporal and spatial scales. We argue that regional differences in acid deposition loading may account for the apparent discrepancies between studies. DOC has shown strong monotonic increases in areas which have experienced strong downward trends in pollutant sulphur and/or seasalt deposition. Elsewhere climatic factors, that strongly influence seasonality, have also dominated inter-annual variability, and here long-term monotonic DOC trends are often difficult to detect. Furthermore, in areas receiving similar acid loadings, different catchment characteristics could have affected the site specific sensitivity to changes in acidity and therefore the magnitude of DOC release in response to changes in sulphur deposition. We suggest that confusion over these temporal and spatial scales of investigation has contributed unnecessarily to the disagreement over the main regional driver(s) of DOC trends, and that the data behind the majority of these studies is more compatible than is often conveyed.
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Many numerical models for weather prediction and climate studies are run at resolutions that are too coarse to resolve convection explicitly, but too fine to justify the local equilibrium assumed by conventional convective parameterizations. The Plant-Craig (PC) stochastic convective parameterization scheme, developed in this paper, solves this problem by removing the assumption that a given grid-scale situation must always produce the same sub-grid-scale convective response. Instead, for each timestep and gridpoint, one of the many possible convective responses consistent with the large-scale situation is randomly selected. The scheme requires as input the large-scale state as opposed to the instantaneous grid-scale state, but must nonetheless be able to account for genuine variations in the largescale situation. Here we investigate the behaviour of the PC scheme in three-dimensional simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium, demonstrating in particular that the necessary space-time averaging required to produce a good representation of the input large-scale state is not in conflict with the requirement to capture large-scale variations. The resulting equilibrium profiles agree well with those obtained from established deterministic schemes, and with corresponding cloud-resolving model simulations. Unlike the conventional schemes the statistics for mass flux and rainfall variability from the PC scheme also agree well with relevant theory and vary appropriately with spatial scale. The scheme is further shown to adapt automatically to changes in grid length and in forcing strength.
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This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the ‘middle-of-the-road’ SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24%, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16%. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in ‘actual’ impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact.
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Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator.
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Extreme rainfall events continue to be one of the largest natural hazards in the UK. In winter, heavy precipitation and floods have been linked with intense moisture transport events associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), yet no large-scale atmospheric precursors have been linked to summer flooding in the UK. This study investigates the link between ARs and extreme rainfall from two perspectives: 1) Given an extreme rainfall event, is there an associated AR? 2) Given an AR, is there an associated extreme rainfall event? We identify extreme rainfall events using the UK Met Office daily rain-gauge dataset and link these to ARs using two different horizontal resolution atmospheric datasets (ERA-Interim and 20th Century Re-analysis). The results show that less than 35% of winter ARs and less than 15% of summer ARs are associated with an extreme rainfall event. Consistent with previous studies, at least 50% of extreme winter rainfall events are associated with an AR. However, less than 20% of the identified summer extreme rainfall events are associated with an AR. The dependence of the water vapor transport intensity threshold used to define an AR on the years included in the study, and on the length of the season, is also examined. Including a longer period (1900-2012) compared to previous studies (1979-2005) reduces the water vapor transport intensity threshold used to define an AR.
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As part of an international intercomparison project, the weak temperature gradient (WTG) and damped gravity wave (DGW) methods are used to parameterize large-scale dynamics in a set of cloud-resolving models (CRMs) and single column models (SCMs). The WTG or DGW method is implemented using a configuration that couples a model to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. We investigated the sensitivity of each model to changes in SST, given a fixed reference state. We performed a systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in different models, and a systematic comparison of the behavior of those models using the WTG method and the DGW method. The sensitivity to the SST depends on both the large-scale parameterization method and the choice of the cloud model. In general, SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. All CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show an increase of precipitation with SST, while SCMs show sensitivities which are not always monotonic. CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show a similar relationship between mean precipitation rate and column-relative humidity, while SCMs exhibit a much wider range of behaviors. DGW simulations produce large-scale velocity profiles which are smoother and less top-heavy compared to those produced by the WTG simulations. These large-scale parameterization methods provide a useful tool to identify the impact of parameterization differences on model behavior in the presence of two-way feedback between convection and the large-scale circulation.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Introduction: The seroprevalence of human T-cell leukemia virus type 1 (HTLV-1) is very high among Brazilians (,1:200). HTLV-1 associated myelopathy or tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP) is the most common neurological complication of HTLV-1 infection. HAM/TSP can present with an acute/subacute form of longitudinally extensive myelitis, which can be confused with lesions seen in aquaporin-4 antibody (AQP4-Ab) positive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSD) on MRI. Moreover, clinical attacks in patients with NMOSD have been shown to be preceded by viral infections in around 30% of cases. Objective: To evaluate the frequency of AQP4-Ab in patients with HAM/TSP. To evaluate the frequency of HTLV-1 infection in patients with NMOSD. Patients and Methods: 23 Brazilian patients with HAM/TSP, 20 asymptomatic HTLV-1+ serostatus patients, and 34 with NMOSD were tested for AQP4-Ab using a standardized recombinant cell based assay. In addition, all patients were tested for HTLV-1 by ELISA and Western blotting. Results: 20/34 NMOSD patients were positive for AQP4-Ab but none of the HAM/TSP patients and none of the asymptomatic HTLV-1 infected individuals. Conversely, all AQP4-Ab-positive NMOSD patients were negative for HTLV-1 antibodies. One patient with HAM/TSP developed optic neuritis in addition to subacute LETM; this patient was AQP4-Ab negative as well. Patients were found to be predominantly female and of African descent both in the NMOSD and in the HAM/TSP group; Osame scale and expanded disability status scale scores did not differ significantly between the two groups. Conclusions: Our results argue both against a role of antibodies to AQP4 in the pathogenesis of HAM/TSP and against an association between HTLV-1 infection and the development of AQP4-Ab. Moreover, the absence of HTLV-1 in all patients with NMOSD suggests that HTLV-1 is not a common trigger of acute attacks in patients with AQP4-Ab positive NMOSD in populations with high HTLV-1 seroprevalence.
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Diese Arbeit stellt eine ausführliche Studie fundamentaler Eigenschaften der Kalzit CaCO3(10.4) und verwandter Mineraloberflächen dar, welche nicht nur durch die Verwendung von Nichtkontakt Rasterkraftmikroskopie, sondern hauptsächlich durch die Messung von Kraftfeldern ermöglicht wurde. Die absolute Oberflächenorientierung sowie der hierfür zugrundeliegende Prozess auf atomarer Skala konnten erfolgreich für die Kalzit (10.4) Oberfläche identifiziert werden.rnDie Adsorption chiraler Moleküle auf Kalzit ist relevant im Bereich der Biomineralisation, was ein Verständnis der Oberflächensymmetrie unumgänglich macht. Die Messung des Oberflächenkraftfeldes auf atomarer Ebene ist hierfür ein zentraler Aspekt. Eine solche Kraftkarte beleuchtet nicht nur die für die Biomineralisation wichtige Wechselwirkung der Oberfläche mit Molekülen, sondern enthält auch die Möglichkeit, Prozesse auf atomarer Skala und damit Oberflächeneigenschaften zu identifizieren.rnDie Einführung eines höchst flexiblen Messprotokolls gewährleistet die zuverlässige und kommerziell nicht erhältliche Messung des Oberflächenkraftfeldes. Die Konversion der rohen ∆f Daten in die vertikale Kraft Fz ist jedoch kein trivialer Vorgang, insbesondere wenn Glätten der Daten in Frage kommt. Diese Arbeit beschreibt detailreich, wie Fz korrekt für die experimentellen Bedingungen dieser Arbeit berechnet werden können. Weiterhin ist beschrieben, wie Lateralkräfte Fy und Dissipation Γ erhalten wurden, um das volle Potential dieser Messmethode auszureizen.rnUm Prozesse auf atomarer Skala auf Oberflächen zu verstehen sind die kurzreichweitigen, chemischen Kräfte Fz,SR von größter Wichtigkeit. Langreichweitige Beiträge müssen hierzu an Fz angefittet und davon abgezogen werden. Dies ist jedoch eine fehleranfällige Aufgabe, die in dieser Arbeit dadurch gemeistert werden konnte, dass drei unabhängige Kriterien gefunden wurden, die den Beginn zcut von Fz,SR bestimmen, was für diese Aufgabe von zentraler Bedeutung ist. Eine ausführliche Fehleranalyse zeigt, dass als Kriterium die Abweichung der lateralen Kräfte voneinander vertrauenswürdige Fz,SR liefert. Dies ist das erste Mal, dass in einer Studie ein Kriterium für die Bestimmung von zcut gegeben werden konnte, vervollständigt mit einer detailreichen Fehleranalyse.rnMit der Kenntniss von Fz,SR und Fy war es möglich, eine der fundamentalen Eigenschaften der CaCO3(10.4) Oberfläche zu identifizieren: die absolute Oberflächenorientierung. Eine starke Verkippung der abgebildeten Objekte
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Organic farming means a holistic application of agricultural land-use, hence, this study aimed to assess ecological and socio-economic aspects that show benefits of the strategy and achievements of organic farming in comparison to conventional farming in Darjeeling District, State of West Bengal, India and Kanagawa Prefecture/Kanto in Central Japan. The objective of this study has been empirically analysed on aspects of crop diversity, yield, income and sales prices in the two study regions, where 50 households each, i.e. in total 100 households were interviewed at farm-level. Therefore, the small sample size does not necessarily reflect the broad-scale of the use and benefit of organic farming in both regions. The problems faced in mountainous regions in terms of agriculture and livelihoods for small-scale farmers, which are most affected and dependant on their immediate environment, such as low yields, income and illegal felling leading to soil erosion and landslides, are analyzed. Furthermore, factors such as climate, soils, vegetation and relief equally play an important role for these farmers, in terms of land-use. To supplement and improve the income of farmers, local NGOs have introduced organic farming and high value organic cash crops such as ginger, tea, orange and cardamom and small income generating means (floriculture, apiary etc.). For non-certified and certified organic products the volume is given for India, while for Japan only certified organic production figures are given, as there are several definitions for organic in Japan. Hence, prior to the implementation of organic laws and standards, even reduced chemical input was sold as non-certified organic. Furthermore, the distribution and certification system of both countries are explained in detail, including interviews with distribution companies and cooperatives. Supportive observations from Kanagawa Prefecture and the Kanto region are helpful and practical suggestions for organic farmers in Darjeeling District. Most of these are simple and applicable soil management measures, natural insect repelling applications and describe the direct marketing system practiced in Japan. The former two include compost, intercropping, Effective Microorganisms (EM), clover, rice husk charcoal and wood vinegar. More supportive observations have been made at organic and biodynamic tea estates in Darjeeling District, which use citronella, neem, marigold, leguminous and soil binding plants for soil management and natural insect control. Due to the close ties between farmers and consumers in Japan, certification is often neither necessary nor wanted by the producers. They have built a confidence relationship with their customers; thus, such measures are simply not required. Another option is group certification, instead of the expensive individual certification. The former aims at lower costs for farmers who have formed a cooperative or a farmers' group. Consumer awareness for organic goods is another crucial aspect to help improve the situation of organic farmers. Awareness is slightly more advanced in Kanto than in Darjeeling District, as it is improved due to the close (sales) ties between farmers and consumers in Kanto. Interviews conducted with several such cooperatives and companies underline the positive system of TEIKEI. The introduction of organic farming in the study regions has shown positive effects for those involved, even though it still in its beginning stages in Darjeeling District. This study was only partly able to assess the benefits of organic agriculture at its present level for Darjeeling District, while more positively for the organic farmers of Kanto. The organic farming practice needs further improvement, encouragement and monitoring for the Darjeeling District farmers by locals, consumers, NGOs and politicians. The supportive observations from Kanagawa Prefecture and the Kanto region are a small step in this direction, showing how, simple soil improvements and thus, yield and income increases, as well as direct sales options can enhance the livelihood of organic farmers without destroying their environment and natural resources.
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Background Prognostic models have been developed for patients infected with HIV-1 who start combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-income countries, but not for patients in sub-Saharan Africa. We developed two prognostic models to estimate the probability of death in patients starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We analysed data for adult patients who started ART in four scale-up programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, and Malawi from 2004 to 2007. Patients lost to follow-up in the first year were excluded. We used Weibull survival models to construct two prognostic models: one with CD4 cell count, clinical stage, bodyweight, age, and sex (CD4 count model); and one that replaced CD4 cell count with total lymphocyte count and severity of anaemia (total lymphocyte and haemoglobin model), because CD4 cell count is not routinely measured in many African ART programmes. Death from all causes in the first year of ART was the primary outcome. Findings 912 (8·2%) of 11 153 patients died in the first year of ART. 822 patients were lost to follow-up and not included in the main analysis; 10 331 patients were analysed. Mortality was strongly associated with high baseline CD4 cell count (≥200 cells per μL vs <25; adjusted hazard ratio 0·21, 95% CI 0·17–0·27), WHO clinical stage (stages III–IV vs I–II; 3·45, 2·43–4·90), bodyweight (≥60 kg vs <45 kg; 0·23, 0·18–0·30), and anaemia status (none vs severe: 0·27, 0·20–0·36). Other independent risk factors for mortality were low total lymphocyte count, advanced age, and male sex. Probability of death at 1 year ranged from 0·9% (95% CI 0·6–1·4) to 52·5% (43·8–61·7) with the CD4 model, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·4) to 59·6% (48·2–71·4) with the total lymphocyte and haemoglobin model. Both models accurately predict early mortality in patients starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa compared with observed data. Interpretation Prognostic models should be used to counsel patients, plan health services, and predict outcomes for patients with HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa.
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BACKGROUND: Surgical profundaplasty (SP)is used mainly as an adjunct to endovascular management of peripheral vascular disease (PAD) today. Results from earlier series of profundaplasty alone have been controversial, especially regarding its hemodynamic effect. The question is: Can profundaplasty alone still be useful? Our aim was to evaluate its role in the modern management of vascular patients. METHODS: This was a retrospective outcome study. A consecutive series of 97 patients (106 legs) from January 2000 through December 2003 were included. In 55 (52%) legs, the superficial femoral artery was occluded. These patients were included in the current analysis. Of these patients 14 (25%) were female. Mean age was 71 ((11) years. Nineteen (35%) were diabetic. The indication for operation was claudication in 29 (53%), critical leg ischemia (CLI) in 26 (47%), either with rest pain in 17 (31%), or ulcer/gangrene in 9 (16%). Endarterectomy with patch angioplasty with bovine pericardium was performed in all cases. Mean follow-up was 33 ( 14 months. Mean preoperative ankle brachial index (ABI) was 0.6. Sustained clinical efficacy was defined as upward shift of 1 or greater on the Rutherford scale without repeat target limb revascularization (TLR) or amputation. Mortality, morbidity, need for TLR, or amputation were separate endpoints. RESULTS: Postoperatively, ABI was significantly improved (mean = 0.7), in 24 (44%) by more than 0.15. At three years, cumulative clinical success rate was 80%. Overall, patients with claudication had a better outcome than those with CLI (p = 0.04). Two (4%) major amputations and 2 (4%) minor ones were performed, all in patients with CLI. None of the 9 (16%) ulcers healed. CONCLUSION: Profundaplasty is still a valuable option for patients with femoral PAD and claudication without tissue loss. It is a straightforward procedure that combines good efficacy with low complication rates. Further endovascular treatment may be facilitated. It is not useful for patients with the combination of critical ischemia and tissue loss.
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The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by process-based modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under http://www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws. We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10 m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25 m resolution.
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Semi-natural grasslands are widely recognized for their high ecological value. They often count among the most species-rich habitats, especially in traditional cultural landscapes. Maintaining and/or restoring them is a top priority, but nevertheless represents a real conservation challenge, especially regarding their invertebrate assemblages. The main goal of this study was to experimentally investigate the influence of four different mowing regimes on orthopteran communities and populations: (1) control meadow (C-meadow): mowing regime according to the Swiss regulations for extensively managed meadows declared as ecological compensation areas, i.e. first cut not before 15 June; (2) first cut not before 15 July (delayed treatment, D-meadow); (3) first cut not before 15 June and second cut not earlier than 8 weeks from the first cut (8W-meadow); (4) refuges left uncut on 10–20% of the meadow area (R-meadow). Data were collected two years after the introduction of these mowing treatments. Orthopteran densities from spring to early summer were five times higher in D-meadows, compared to C-meadows. In R-meadows, densities were, on average, twice as high as in C-meadows, while mean species richness was 23% higher in R-meadows than in C-meadows. Provided that farmers were given the appropriate financial incentives, the D- and R-meadow regimes could be relatively easy to implement within agri-environment schemes. Such meadows could deliver substantial benefits for functional biodiversity, including sustenance to many secondary consumers dependent on field invertebrates as staple food.
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OBJECTIVE: To explore ethnic differences in do-not-resuscitate orders after intracerebral hemorrhage. DESIGN: Population-based surveillance. SETTING: Corpus Christi, Texas. PATIENTS: All cases of intracerebral hemorrhage in the community of Corpus Christi, TX were ascertained as part of the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi (BASIC) project. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Medical records were reviewed for do-not-resuscitate orders. Unadjusted and multivariable logistic regression were used to test for associations between ethnicity and do-not-resuscitate orders, both overall ("any do-not-resuscitate") and within 24 hrs of presentation ("early do-not-resuscitate"), adjusted for age, gender, Glasgow Coma Scale, intracerebral hemorrhage volume, intraventricular hemorrhage, infratentorial hemorrhage, modified Charlson Index, and admission from a nursing home. A total of 270 cases of intracerebral hemorrhage from 2000-2003 were analyzed. Mexican-Americans were younger and had a higher Glasgow Coma Scale than non-Hispanic whites. Mexican-Americans were half as likely as non-Hispanic whites to have early do-not-resuscitate orders in unadjusted analysis (odds ratio 0.45, 95% confidence interval 0.27, 0.75), although this association was not significant when adjusted for age (odds ratio 0.61, 95% confidence interval 0.35, 1.06) and in the fully adjusted model (odds ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.39, 1.46). Mexican-Americans were less likely than non-Hispanic whites to have do-not-resuscitate orders written at any time point (odds ratio 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.23, 0.61). Adjustment for age alone attenuated this relationship although it retained significance (odds ratio 0.49, 95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.82). In the fully adjusted model, Mexican-Americans were less likely than non-Hispanic whites to use do-not-resuscitate orders at any time point, although the 95% confidence interval included one (odds ratio 0.52, 95% confidence interval 0.27, 1.00). CONCLUSIONS: Mexican-Americans were less likely than non-Hispanic whites to have do-not-resuscitate orders after intracerebral hemorrhage although the association was attenuated after adjustment for age and other confounders. The persistent trend toward less frequent use of do-not-resuscitate orders in Mexican-Americans suggests that further study is warranted.